Climate and Human Health: Relations, Projections, and Future Implementations

It is widely accepted by the scientific community that the world has begun to warm as a result of human influence. The accumulation of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere, arising primarily from the combustion of carbon fossil fuels and agricultural activities, generates changes in the climate. Indeed various studies have assessed the potential impacts of climate change on human health (both negative and positive). The increased frequency and intensity of heat waves, the reduction in cold-related deaths, the increased floods and droughts, and the changes in the distribution of vector-borne diseases are among the most frequently studied effects. On the other hand, climate change differs from many other environmental health problems because of its gradual onset, widespread rather than localized effect, and the fact that the most important effects will probably be indirect. Some recent and important publications show that only the collaboration between the meteorological and the public health communities can help us to thoroughly study the link between climate and health, thus improving our ability to adapt to these future changes. The aim of this editorial is to give different perspectives on a widely discussed topic, which is still too complicated to be addressed to a satisfactory extent. Moreover, it is necessary to underline the importance of using new biometeorological indices (i.e. thermal indexes, etc.) for future projections, in order to reduce the impacts of negative outcomes, protecting the population through adaptation measures and public awareness

Time-lagged inversedistance weighting for air temperature analysis in an equatorial urban area (Guayaquil, Ecuador)

It is well known that sudden variations of air temperature have the potential to cause severe impacts on human health. Therefore, it becomes necessary to provide information capable of quantifying the severity of the problem, considering that the continuous increase of temperature due to global warming and urban development will cause more intense effects in heavily populated areas. Due to its geographical location and local characteristics, Ecuador, a country located on the western coast of South America, is characterized by a high vulnerability to climatic extremes. The present research develops an evaluation of urban climate change effects through the analysis of extreme temperature indices using four meteorological stations situated in the city of Guayaquil (southwest Ecuador). Since the available data are not adequate for extreme temperature indices criteria, it was necessary to employ an infilling method for times series in an innovative way that can be applicable at the small scale. Thus, a cross-correlation-enhanced inverse distance weighting (CC-IDW) method was proposed. The method entails a spatial interpolation based on data of urban stations situated outside of Guayaquil by taking into account cross-correlation among times series at precise lags that leads to an improvement in the way of estimating the missing values. Subsequently, a homogeneity test, data quality control and the calculation of extreme temperature indices chosen from those proposed by the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) were implemented. The results show that there is a general tendency of warming with quite homogenous temperatures for all considered stations. However, it should be recognized that the climate pattern of this region is strongly modulated by the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) cycle. Only for two extreme indices: the highest maximum temperature (TXx) and the warm days (TX90p), are the resulting trend co-efficients statistically significant. The study suggests a deteriorated climatic condition due to heat stress that warrants further study using the available database for the city of Guayaquil

Precise OBS location at the sea bottom in active seismic profiles using the air gun shot records

The Norcaribe campaign, in November – December 2013, funded by Spanish Ministry of Innovation and Science (Norcaribe Project CGL2010-17715), was performed on board of the Spanish research vessel “Sarmiento de Gamboa” around the Hispaniola island, also with the participation of the Dominic Republic Navy patrol vessels and several Haiti and Dominic Republic institutions. During the campaign, a 200 km long, wide-amgle refraction seismic profile was carried out crossing the Beata ridge. The air gun signal (5100 ci) was recorded by 15 OBSs deployed along the seismic line in water depths between 2.300 meters and 4.320 meters. To obtain the section records, the OBS position is needed, usually the deployment location is used, but the OBS can drift while is sinking due to the deep oceanic currents. The recovery locations at surface could provide information about the drift, assuming a constant sea current since the deployment to the recovery, but it is imprecise. In this work we show a method to obtain a precise location of the OBS at the sea bottom using a high-resolution bathymetry and the OBS record of the closest air gun shots of the profile. Also, the preliminary results for the Norcaribe campaign (Beata ridge profile) are shown.Peer Reviewe

Albiglutide and cardiovascular outcomes in patients with type 2 diabetes and cardiovascular disease (Harmony Outcomes): a double-blind, randomised placebo-controlled trial

Background: Glucagon-like peptide 1 receptor agonists differ in chemical structure, duration of action, and in their effects on clinical outcomes. The cardiovascular effects of once-weekly albiglutide in type 2 diabetes are unknown. We aimed to determine the safety and efficacy of albiglutide in preventing cardiovascular death, myocardial infarction, or stroke. Methods: We did a double-blind, randomised, placebo-controlled trial in 610 sites across 28 countries. We randomly assigned patients aged 40 years and older with type 2 diabetes and cardiovascular disease (at a 1:1 ratio) to groups that either received a subcutaneous injection of albiglutide (30–50 mg, based on glycaemic response and tolerability) or of a matched volume of placebo once a week, in addition to their standard care. Investigators used an interactive voice or web response system to obtain treatment assignment, and patients and all study investigators were masked to their treatment allocation. We hypothesised that albiglutide would be non-inferior to placebo for the primary outcome of the first occurrence of cardiovascular death, myocardial infarction, or stroke, which was assessed in the intention-to-treat population. If non-inferiority was confirmed by an upper limit of the 95% CI for a hazard ratio of less than 1·30, closed testing for superiority was prespecified. This study is registered with ClinicalTrials.gov, number NCT02465515. Findings: Patients were screened between July 1, 2015, and Nov 24, 2016. 10 793 patients were screened and 9463 participants were enrolled and randomly assigned to groups: 4731 patients were assigned to receive albiglutide and 4732 patients to receive placebo. On Nov 8, 2017, it was determined that 611 primary endpoints and a median follow-up of at least 1·5 years had accrued, and participants returned for a final visit and discontinuation from study treatment; the last patient visit was on March 12, 2018. These 9463 patients, the intention-to-treat population, were evaluated for a median duration of 1·6 years and were assessed for the primary outcome. The primary composite outcome occurred in 338 (7%) of 4731 patients at an incidence rate of 4·6 events per 100 person-years in the albiglutide group and in 428 (9%) of 4732 patients at an incidence rate of 5·9 events per 100 person-years in the placebo group (hazard ratio 0·78, 95% CI 0·68–0·90), which indicated that albiglutide was superior to placebo (p<0·0001 for non-inferiority; p=0·0006 for superiority). The incidence of acute pancreatitis (ten patients in the albiglutide group and seven patients in the placebo group), pancreatic cancer (six patients in the albiglutide group and five patients in the placebo group), medullary thyroid carcinoma (zero patients in both groups), and other serious adverse events did not differ between the two groups. There were three (<1%) deaths in the placebo group that were assessed by investigators, who were masked to study drug assignment, to be treatment-related and two (<1%) deaths in the albiglutide group. Interpretation: In patients with type 2 diabetes and cardiovascular disease, albiglutide was superior to placebo with respect to major adverse cardiovascular events. Evidence-based glucagon-like peptide 1 receptor agonists should therefore be considered as part of a comprehensive strategy to reduce the risk of cardiovascular events in patients with type 2 diabetes. Funding: GlaxoSmithKline

Multidimensional tropical forest recovery

International audienceTropical forests disappear rapidly because of deforestation, yet they have the potential to regrow naturally on abandoned lands. We analyze how 12 forest attributes recover during secondary succession and how their recovery is interrelated using 77 sites across the tropics. Tropical forests are highly resilient to low-intensity land use; after 20 years, forest attributes attain 78% (33 to 100%) of their old-growth values. Recovery to 90% of old-growth values is fastest for soil (12 decades). Network analysis shows three independent clusters of attribute recovery, related to structure, species diversity, and species composition. Secondary forests should be embraced as a low-cost, natural solution for ecosystem restoration, climate change mitigation, and biodiversity conservation

Strong floristic distinctiveness across Neotropical successional forests

International audienceForests that regrow naturally on abandoned fields are important for restoring biodiversity and ecosystem services, but can they also preserve the distinct regional tree floras? Using the floristic composition of 1215 early successional forests (≤20 years) in 75 human-modified landscapes across the Neotropic realm, we identified 14 distinct floristic groups, with a between-group dissimilarity of 0.97. Floristic groups were associated with location, bioregions, soil pH, temperature seasonality, and water availability. Hence, there is large continental-scale variation in the species composition of early successional forests, which is mainly associated with biogeographic and environmental factors but not with human disturbance indicators. This floristic distinctiveness is partially driven by regionally restricted species belonging to widespread genera. Early secondary forests contribute therefore to restoring and conserving the distinctiveness of bioregions across the Neotropical realm, and forest restoration initiatives should use local species to assure that these distinct floras are maintained