Factores Macroecon�micos en Retornos Accionarios Chilenos

We evaluate the growth effects of real exchange rate (RER) misalignments and their volatility. We calculate RER misaligments as deviations of actual RERs from their equilibrium for 60 countries over 1965-2003 using panel and time series cointegration methods. Using dynamic panel data techniques we find that RER misalignments hinder growth but the effect is non-linear: growth declines are larger, the larger the size of the overvaluation. Although large undervaluations hurt growth, small to moderate undervaluations enhance growth. However, we find that it is difficult to follow a pro-growth RER policy. Finally, growth is hampered by highly volatile RER misalignments.

A web processing service for validating interpolation

An interoperable web processing service (WPS) for the automatic interpolation of environmental data has been developed in the frame of the INTAMAP project. In order to assess the performance of the interpolation method implemented, a validation WPS has also been developed. This validation WPS can be used to perform leave one out and K-fold cross validation: a full dataset is submitted and a range of validation statistics and diagnostic plots (e.g. histograms, variogram of residuals, mean errors) is received in return. This paper presents the architecture of the validation WPS and a case study is used to briefly illustrate its use in practice. We conclude with a discussion on the current limitations of the system and make proposals for further developments

"Analysts Target Price Accuracy and Investors' Reaction: Chilean Stock Market Evidence "

The main purpose of this study is to istimate the target price accuracy (TPA) of the Chilean analysts and to find the factors that may affect its accuracy. We alse seek to determine if there exists a direct relationship between the precision level of the research divisions and abnormal returns when a new target price (TP) is issued. The empirical results indicate that 26.2% of TPS (overall) issued were successful. Abnormal returns associated to research divisions with higher accuracy are not observed consistently. Lastly, we find significant abnormal returns when a new TP announced is above (below) to the market consensus. El principal objetivo de este trabajo es estimar el grado de precisión que tiene los analistas de títulos accionarios en Chile. El estudio busca mostrar evidencia acerca de una directa relación entre el grado de precisión de los analistas y la presencia de retornos anormales en el dÌa del mundo de un nuevo precio objetivo (PO). Los principales resultados reflejan que los analistas no poseen un grado de precisión elevado. solo el 26.2% de los POs lanzados al mercado fueron exitosos. Además, se encuentra evidencia de retornos anormales en el dÌa del anuncio de un nuevo PO cuando este sorprende al mercado

Desempeño Económico Agregado y Mercado Accionario: Un Análisis Empírico para el Caso Chileno

This paper is aimed to analyse in a dymanic context, the aggregate behaviour of the Chilean stock market. The theoretical framework in which this study is based on, hinges upon the view that asset prices relate to a number of state variables, which capturSeries de tiempo, mercados financieros

Premio por riesgo de liquidez en el mercado interbancario, para un grupo de economías emergentes

This article studies the behavior of liquidity premia with data from interbank deposits and swaps, for the period june 2006 to october 2009, thus including the financial crisis. For the USA market the liquidity premium presents a relatively low volatility and an average of 42 annual basis points. For a sample of emerging economies that includes Brazil, Russia, India, China and Chile the liquidity premium is highly volatile and averages in general above 100 basis points. Further the behavior of the liquidity premium is modeled with vector cointegration (Johansen, 1988) and the results indicate that for Brazil, Chile, India, Russia the liquidity premium, the local stock market and foreign exchange rate do cointegrate in a long run equilibrium, and the VECM shows that these endogenous variables are complementary in adjusting the short run deviations from equilibrium; for China is different given the local exchange rate system. These results are also coherent with a refuge hypothesis. For the USA the results show cointegration for liquidity premium, S&P500, and VIX series.Este artículo estudia el comportamiento de las primas de liquidez con datos de depósitos interbancarios y swaps, para el período de junio de 2006 a octubre de 2009, incluida la crisis financiera. Para el mercado estadounidense, la prima de liquidez presenta una volatilidad relativamente baja y un promedio de 42 puntos base anuales. Para una muestra de economías emergentes que incluye a Brasil, Rusia, India, China y Chile, la prima de liquidez es altamente volátil y los promedios en general superan los 100 puntos básicos. Además, el comportamiento de la prima de liquidez se modela con la cointegración vectorial (Johansen, 1988) y los resultados indican que para Brasil, Chile, India, Rusia, la prima de liquidez, el mercado de valores local y el tipo de cambio se cointegran en un equilibrio a largo plazo. y el VECM muestra que estas variables endógenas son complementarias en el ajuste de las desviaciones a corto plazo del equilibrio; Para China es diferente dado el sistema de tipo de cambio local. Estos resultados también son coherentes con una hipótesis de refugio. Para los EE. UU., Los resultados muestran la cointegración para las series de primas de liquidez, S & P500 y VIX

eHabitat: A Contribution to the Model Web for Habitat Assessments and Ecological Forecasting

In striving to improve the predictive capabilities of ecological forecasting we face three basic choices ¿ develop new models, improve existing ones or increase the connectivity of models so they can work together. The latter approach of chaining different interoperable models is of particular interest, as technical developments have made it increasingly viable to combine models that can answer more questions than the individual models alone, allowing users to address complex questions, often of a multi-disciplinary nature. This concept of a Model Web encourages the setting up of a dynamic network of interoperating models, communicating with each other using standardized web services. It is the purpose of this paper to introduce the potential contribution of e-Habitat to the Model Web. e-Habitat is conceived as a Web Processing Service for computing the likelihood of finding ecosystems with equal properties. By developing e-Habitat according to Model Web principles, end-users can define the thematic layers for input to the model from various sources. These input layers are discovered using standards-based catalogues, which are a fundamental component of Model Web and generic Spatial Data Infrastructures. e-Habitat integrates data ranging from remote sensing data to socio-economical indicators, thus offering a huge potential for multi-disciplinary modelling. We will show that e-Habitat can be used for the identification of habitats that are most vulnerable or of the optimal locations for monitoring stations or, when coupled with climate change model services, for ecological forecasting. As such, it is an excellent example of the Model Web in practice.JRC.H.3-Global environement monitorin

3-hydroxy-L-kynurenamine is an immunomodulatory biogenic amine

Tryptophan catabolism is a major metabolic pathway utilized by several professional and non-professional antigen presenting cells to maintain immunological tolerance. Here we report that 3-hydroxy-l-kynurenamine (3-HKA) is a biogenic amine produced via an alternative pathway of tryptophan metabolism. In vitro, 3-HKA has an anti-inflammatory profile by inhibiting the IFN-gamma mediated STAT1/NF-kappa Beta pathway in both mouse and human dendritic cells (DCs) with a consequent decrease in the release of pro-inflammatory chemokines and cytokines, most notably TNF, IL-6, and IL12p70. 3-HKA has protective effects in an experimental mouse model of psoriasis by decreasing skin thickness, erythema, scaling and fissuring, reducing TNF, IL-1 beta, IFN-gamma, and IL-17 production, and inhibiting generation of effector CD8(+) T cells. Similarly, in a mouse model of nephrotoxic nephritis, besides reducing inflammatory cytokines, 3-HKA improves proteinuria and serum urea nitrogen, overall ameliorating immune-mediated glomerulonephritis and renal dysfunction. Overall, we propose that this biogenic amine is a crucial component of tryptophan-mediated immune tolerance. 3-hydroxy-L-kynurenamine (3-HKA) is a metabolite deriving from a lateral pathway of tryptophan catabolism. Here the authors identify 3-HKA as a biogenic amine and show it has anti-inflammatory properties that can protect mice against psoriasis and nephrotoxic nephritis.Peer reviewe