The upper end of climate model temperature projections is inconsistent with past warming

Climate models predict a large range of possible future temperatures for a particular scenario of future emissions of greenhouse gases and other anthropogenic forcings of climate. Given that further warming in coming decades could threaten increasing risks of climatic disruption, it is important to determine whether model projections are consistent with temperature changes already observed. This can be achieved by quantifying the extent to which increases in well mixed greenhouse gases and changes in other anthropogenic and natural forcings have already altered temperature patterns around the globe. Here, for the first time, we combine multiple climate models into a single synthesized estimate of future warming rates consistent with past temperature changes. We show that the observed evolution of near-surface temperatures appears to indicate lower ranges (5–95%) for warming (0.35–0.82 K and 0.45–0.93 K by the 2020s (2020–9) relative to 1986–2005 under the RCP4.5 and 8.5 scenarios respectively) than the equivalent ranges projected by the CMIP5 climate models (0.48–1.00 K and 0.51–1.16 K respectively). Our results indicate that for each RCP the upper end of the range of CMIP5 climate model projections is inconsistent with past warming

The novel mu-opioid antagonist, GSK1521498, reduces ethanol consumption in C57BL/6J mice.

RATIONALE Using the drinking-in-the-dark (DID) model, we compared the effects of a novel mu-opioid receptor antagonist, GSK1521498, with naltrexone, a licensed treatment of alcohol dependence, on ethanol consumption in mice. OBJECTIVE We test the ability of GSK1521498 to reduce alcohol consumption and compare its intrinsic efficacy to that of naltrexone by comparing the two drugs at doses matched for equivalent receptor occupancy. METHODS Thirty-six C57BL/6J mice were tested in a DID procedure. In 2-day cycles, animals experienced one baseline, injection-free session, and one test session when they received two injections, one of test drug and one placebo. All animals received GSK1521498 (0, 0.1, 1 and 3 mg/kg, i.p., 30 min pre-treatment) and naltrexone (0, 0.1, 1 and 3 mg/kg, s.c. 10 min pre-treatment) in a cross-over design. Receptor occupancies following the same doses were determined ex vivo in separate groups by autoradiography, using [3H]DAMGO. Binding in the region of interest was measured integrally by computer-assisted microdensitometry and corrected for non-specific binding. RESULTS Both GSK1521498 and naltrexone dose-dependently decreased ethanol consumption. When drug doses were matched for 70-75 % receptor occupancy, GSK1521498 3 mg/kg, i.p., caused a 2.5-fold greater reduction in alcohol consumption than naltrexone 0.1 mg/kg, s.c. Both GSK1521498 and naltrexone significantly reduced sucrose consumption at a dose of 1 mg/kg but not 0.1 mg/kg. In a test of conditioned taste aversion, GSK1521498 (3 mg/kg) reduced sucrose consumption 24 h following exposure to a conditioning injection. CONCLUSIONS Both opioid receptor antagonists reduced alcohol consumption but GK1521498 has higher intrinsic efficacy than naltrexone

Exact Results on the Space of Vacua of Four Dimensional SUSY Gauge Theories

We consider four dimensional quantum field theories which have a continuous manifold of inequivalent exact ground states -- a moduli space of vacua. Classically, the singular points on the moduli space are associated with extra massless particles. Quantum mechanically these singularities can be smoothed out. Alternatively, new massless states appear there. These may be the elementary massless particles or new massless bound states.Comment: 19 pages, RU-94-1

Prospects for local co-governance

British local authorities and their partners are increasingly developing new ways of working together with local communities. The nature of this co-working, however, is complex, multi-faceted and little understood. This article argues for greater clarity of thinking on the topic, by analysing this co-working as a form of political co-governance, and drawing attention in particular to issues of scale and democracy. Using evidence from a study of 43 local authority areas, 16 authorities are identified where co-governance is practised, following three main types of approach: service-influencing, service-delivering and parish council developing. It is concluded that strengthening political co-governance is essential for a healthy democracy

Robust Online Hamiltonian Learning

In this work we combine two distinct machine learning methodologies, sequential Monte Carlo and Bayesian experimental design, and apply them to the problem of inferring the dynamical parameters of a quantum system. We design the algorithm with practicality in mind by including parameters that control trade-offs between the requirements on computational and experimental resources. The algorithm can be implemented online (during experimental data collection), avoiding the need for storage and post-processing. Most importantly, our algorithm is capable of learning Hamiltonian parameters even when the parameters change from experiment-to-experiment, and also when additional noise processes are present and unknown. The algorithm also numerically estimates the Cramer-Rao lower bound, certifying its own performance.Comment: 24 pages, 12 figures; to appear in New Journal of Physic

Iron Deficiency and the Well-being of Older Adults: Early Results From a Randomized Nutrition Intervention

Iron deficiency is widespread throughout the developing world. We provide new evidence on the effect of iron deficiency on economic and social prosperity of older adults drawing on data from a random assignment treatment-control design intervention. The Work and Iron Status Evaluation is an on-going study following over 17,000 individuals in Central Java, Indonesia. Half the respondents receive a treatment of 120 mg of iron every week for a year; the controls receive a placebo. Compliance is monitored carefully. Results from the first six months of the intervention are presented for adults age 30 through 70 years. Males who were iron deficient prior to the intervention and who are assigned to the treatment are better off in terms of physical health, psycho-social health and economic success. These men are more likely to be working, sleep less, lose less work time to illness, are more energetic, more able to conduct physically arduous activities and their psycho-social health is better. There is evidence that economic productivity of these males also increased. Among iron-deficient males assigned to the treatment who were also self-employed prior to the baseline, hourly earnings rose substantially and so they earned more on a monthly basis. Benefits for women are in the same direction but the effects are more muted. The results provide unambiguous evidence in support of the hypothesis that health has a causal effect on economic prosperity of males during middle and older ages

Council tax valuation bands, socio-economic status and health outcome: a cross-sectional analysis from the Caerphilly Health and Social Needs Study

Council tax valuation bands (CTVBs) are a categorisation of household property value in Great Britain. The aim of the study was to assess the CTVB as a measure of socio-economic status by comparing the strength of the associations between selected health and lifestyle outcomes and CTVBs with two measures of socio-economic status: the National Statistics Socio-Economic Classification (NS-SEC) and the 2001 UK census-based Townsend deprivation index. METHODS: Cross-sectional analysis of data on 12,092 respondents (adjusted response 62.7%) to the Caerphilly Health and Social Needs Study, a postal questionnaire survey undertaken in Caerphilly county borough, south-east Wales, UK. The CTVB was assigned to each individual by matching the sampling frame to the local authority council tax register. Crude and age-gender adjusted odds ratios for each category of CTVB, NS-SEC and fifth of the ward distribution of Townsend scores were estimated for smoking, poor diet, obesity, and limiting long-term illness using logistic regression. Mean mental (MCS) and physical (PCS) component summary scores of the Short-Form SF-36 health status questionnaire were estimated in general linear models. RESULTS: There were significant trends in odds ratios across the CTVB categories for all outcomes, most marked for smoking and mental and physical health status. The adjusted odds ratio for being a smoker in the lowest versus highest CTVB category was 3.80 (95% CI: 3.06, 4.71), compared to 3.00 (95% CI: 2.30, 3.90) for the NS-SEC 'never worked and long-term unemployed' versus 'higher managerial and professional' categories, and 1.61 (95% CI: 1.42, 1.83) for the most deprived versus the least deprived Townsend fifth. The difference in adjusted mean MCS scores was 5.9 points on the scale for CTVB, 9.2 for NS-SEC and 3.2 for the Townsend score. The values for the adjusted mean PCS scores were 6.3 points for CTVB, 11.3 for NS-SEC, and 2.5 for the Townsend score. CONCLUSION: CTVBs assigned to individuals were strongly associated with the health and lifestyle outcomes modelled in this study. CTVBs are readily available for all residential properties and deserve further consideration as a proxy for socio-economic status in epidemiological studies in Great Britain

Evaluation of the use of Global Youth Tobacco Survey (GYTS) data for developing evidence-based tobacco control policies in Turkey

Introduction The tobacco control effort in Turkey has made significant progress in recent years. Turkey initiated its tobacco control effort with the passing of Law 4207 (The Prevention of Harmful Effects of Tobacco Products) in 1996 and ratified the World Health Organization (WHO) Framework Convention on Tobacco Control (FCTC) in 2004. It is important to base policy decisions on valid and reliable evidence from population-based, representative studies that are periodically repeated to enable policy makers to monitor the results of their interventions and to appropriately tailor anti-tobacco activities towards future needs. Methods The Global Youth Tobacco Survey (GYTS) was developed to track tobacco use among young people and enhance the capacity of countries to design, implement, and evaluate tobacco control and prevention programs. Turkey conducted the GYTS in 2003 and data from this survey can be used as baseline measures for evaluation of the tobacco control programs implemented by the Ministry of Health (MOH) of the Turkish government. Results The GYTS was conducted in 2003 on a representative sample of students aged 13 to 15 years. It indicated that almost 3 in 10 students in Turkey had ever smoked cigarettes, with significantly higher rates among boys. Current cigarette smoking rates were lower, at 9% for boys and 4% for girls. The prevalence of current use of other tobacco products was about half these figures for each gender. About 80% were exposed to secondhand smoke. Exposure to pro-smoking media messages was not rare. Almost half of the smokers 'usually' bought their tobacco from a store, despite the law prohibiting this. Exposure to teaching against smoking in schools was not universal. Conclusion Findings from the GYTS, with periodic repeats of the survey, can be used to monitor the impact of enforcing various provisions of the present law (No: 4207), the progress made in achieving the goals of the WHO FCTC, and the effectiveness of various preventive interventions against smoking. Such data would inform and help in the development of public health strategy.PubMedWoSScopu

Hepatitis C virus cell-cell transmission and resistance to direct-acting antiviral agents

Hepatitis C virus (HCV) is transmitted between hepatocytes via classical cell entry but also uses direct cell-cell transfer to infect neighboring hepatocytes. Viral cell-cell transmission has been shown to play an important role in viral persistence allowing evasion from neutralizing antibodies. In contrast, the role of HCV cell-cell transmission for antiviral resistance is unknown. Aiming to address this question we investigated the phenotype of HCV strains exhibiting resistance to direct-acting antivirals (DAAs) in state-of-the-art model systems for cell-cell transmission and spread. Using HCV genotype 2 as a model virus, we show that cell-cell transmission is the main route of viral spread of DAA-resistant HCV. Cell-cell transmission of DAA-resistant viruses results in viral persistence and thus hampers viral eradication. We also show that blocking cell-cell transmission using host-targeting entry inhibitors (HTEIs) was highly effective in inhibiting viral dissemination of resistant genotype 2 viruses. Combining HTEIs with DAAs prevented antiviral resistance and led to rapid elimination of the virus in cell culture model. In conclusion, our work provides evidence that cell-cell transmission plays an important role in dissemination and maintenance of resistant variants in cell culture models. Blocking virus cell-cell transmission prevents emergence of drug resistance in persistent viral infection including resistance to HCV DAAs

Patient-reported outcome measures for asthma:a systematic review

BACKGROUND: Patient-reported outcome measures (PROMs) are measures of the outcome of treatment(s) reported directly by the patient or carer. There is increasing international policy interest in using these to assess the impact of clinical care. AIMS: To identify suitably validated PROMs for asthma and examine their potential for use in clinical settings. METHODS: We systematically searched MEDLINE, EMBASE and Web of Science databases from 1990 onwards to identify PROMs for asthma. These were critically appraised, then narratively synthesised. We also identified the generic PROMs commonly used alongside asthma-specific PROMs. RESULTS: We identifi ed 68 PROMs for asthma, 13 of which were selected through screening as being adequately developed to warrant full-quality appraisal: 8 for adults, 4 for children and 1 for a child's caregiver. The PROMs found to be sufficiently well validated to offer promise for use in clinical settings were the Asthma Quality of Life Questionnaire (AQLQ) and mini-AQLQ for adults, and Pediatric Asthma Quality of Life Questionnaire for children. Rhinasthma was considered promising in simultaneously assessing the impact of asthma and rhinitis in those with coexistent disease. We identified 28 generic PROMs commonly used in conjunction with asthma-specific instruments. CONCLUSIONS: We identified asthma PROMs that offer the greatest potential for use in clinical settings. Further work is needed to assess whether these are fit-for-purpose for use in clinical practice with individual patients. In particular, there is a need to ensure these are validated for use in clinical settings, acceptable to patients, caregivers and clinicians, and yield meaningful outcomes. © 2014 Primary Care Respiratory Society/Macmillan Publishers Limited