A Case Study of Forest Ecosystem Pest Management

The boreal forests of North America have, for centuries, experienced periodic outbreaks of a defoliating insect called the Spruce Budworm. In anyone outbreak cycle a major proportion of the mature softwood forest in effected areas can die, with major consequences to the economy and employment of regions like New Brunswick, which are highly dependent on the forest industry. An extensive insecticide spraying programme initiated in New Brunswick in 1951 has succeeded in minimizing tree mortality, but at the price of maintaining incipient outbreak conditions over an area considerably more extensive than in the past. The present management approach is, therefore, particularly sensitive to unexpected shifts in economic, social and regulatory constraints, and to unanticipated behavior of the forest ecosystem. Most major environmental problems in the world today are characterized by similar basic ingredients: high variability in space and time, large scale, and a troubled management history. Because of their enormous complexity there has been little concerted effort to apply systems analysis techniques to the coordinated development of effective descriptions of, and prescriptions for, such problems. The Budworm-forest system seemed to present an admirable focus for a case study with two objectives. The first, of course, was to attempt to develop sets of alternate policies appropriate for the specific problem. But the more significant purpose was to see just how far we could stretch the state of the art capabilities in ecology, modeling, optimization, policy design and evaluation to apply them to complex ecosystem management problems. Three principal issues in any resource environmental problem challenge existing techniques. The resources that provide the food, fibre and recreational opportunities for society are integral parts of ecosystems characterized by complex interrelationships of many species among each other and with the land, water and climate in which they live. The interactions of these systems are highly non-linear and have a significant spatial component. Events in anyone point in space, just as at any moment of time, can affect events at other points in space and time. The resulting high order of dimensionality becomes all the more significant as these ecological systems couple with complex social and economic ones. The second prime challenge is that we have only partial knowledge of the variables and relationships governing the systems. A large body of theoretical and experimental analysis and data has led to an identification of the general form and kind of functional relations existing between organisms. nut only occasionally is there a rich body of data specific to anyone situation. To develop an analysis which implicitly or explicitly presumes sufficient knowledge is therefore to guarantee management policies that become more the source of the problem than the source of the solution. In a particularly challenging way present ecological management situations require concepts and techniques which cope creatively with the uncertainties and unknowns that in fact pervade most of our major social, economic and environmental problems. The third and final challenge reflects the previous two: How can we design policies that achieve specific social objectives and yet are still "robust"? Policies which, once set in play, produce intelligently linked ecological, social and economic systems that can absorb the unexpected events and unknowns that will inevitably appear. These "unexpecteds" might be the one in a thousand year drought that perversely occurs this year; the appearance or disappearance of key species, the emergence of new economic and regulatory constrains or the shift of societal objectives. We must learn to design in a way which shifts our emphasis away from minimizing the probability of failure, towards minimizing the cost of those failures which will inevitably occur

Microbial diversity of a disused copper mine site (Parys Mountain, UK), dominated by intensive eukaryotic filamentous growth

The Parys Mountain copper mine (Wales, UK) contains a wide range of discrete environmental microniches with various physicochemical conditions that shape microbial community composition. Our aim was to assess the microbial community in the sediments and overlying water column in an acidic mine drainage (AMD) site containing abundant filamentous biogenic growth via application of a combination of chemical analysis and taxonomic profiling using 16S rRNA gene amplicon sequencing. Our results were then compared to previously studied sites at Parys Mt. Overall, the sediment microbiome showed a dominance of bacteria over archaea, particularly those belonging to Proteobacteria (genera Acidiphilium and Acidisphaera), Acidobacteriota (subgroup 1), Chloroflexota (AD3 cluster), Nitrospirota (Leptospirillum) and the uncultured Planctomycetota/CPIa-3 termite group. Archaea were only present in the sediment in small quantities, being represented by the Terrestrial Miscellaneous Euryarchaeota Group (TMEG), Thermoplasmatales and Ca. Micrarchaeota (Ca. Micracaldota). Bacteria, mostly of the genera Acidiphilium and Leptospirillum, also dominated within the filamentous streamers while archaea were largely absent. This study found pH and dissolved solutes to be the most important parameters correlating with relative proportions of bacteria to archaea in an AMD environment and revealed the abundance patterns of native acidophilic prokaryotes inhabiting Parys Mt sites and their niche specificities

Multilevel modelling of social segregation

The traditional approach to measuring segregation is based upon descriptive, non-model-based indices. A recently proposed alternative is multilevel modeling. The authors further develop the argument for a multilevel modeling approach by first describing and expanding upon its notable advantages, which include an ability to model segregation at a number of scales simultaneously. The authors then propose a major extension to this approach by introducing a simple simulation method that allows traditional descriptive indices to be reformulated within a modeling framework. The multilevel approach and the simulation method are illustrated with an application that models recent social segregation among schools in London, UK. </jats:p

Polyhedral Analysis using Parametric Objectives

The abstract domain of polyhedra lies at the heart of many program analysis techniques. However, its operations can be expensive, precluding their application to polyhedra that involve many variables. This paper describes a new approach to computing polyhedral domain operations. The core of this approach is an algorithm to calculate variable elimination (projection) based on parametric linear programming. The algorithm enumerates only non-redundant inequalities of the projection space, hence permits anytime approximation of the output

Project Status Report: Ecology and Environment Project

We present here the extended outline and copies of the illustrations used in the Status Report of the IIASA Ecology and Environment Project, presented at Schloss Laxenburg on 21 June 1974. Section 1., "General Review", is covered in the outline. Section 2., "A Case Study of Ecosystem Management", is the subject of a major monograph now in preparation. Section 3., on Selected Conceptual Developments, is in part documented in IIASA Research Reports RR-73-3 and RR-74-3

Preliminary results for RR Lyrae stars and Classical Cepheids from the Vista Magellanic Cloud (VMC) Survey

The Vista Magellanic Cloud (VMC, PI M.R. Cioni) survey is collecting $K_S$-band time series photometry of the system formed by the two Magellanic Clouds (MC) and the "bridge" that connects them. These data are used to build $K_S$-band light curves of the MC RR Lyrae stars and Classical Cepheids and determine absolute distances and the 3D geometry of the whole system using the $K$-band period luminosity ($PLK_S$), the period - luminosity - color ($PLC$) and the Wesenhiet relations applicable to these types of variables. As an example of the survey potential we present results from the VMC observations of two fields centered respectively on the South Ecliptic Pole and the 30 Doradus star forming region of the Large Magellanic Cloud. The VMC $K_S$-band light curves of the RR Lyrae stars in these two regions have very good photometric quality with typical errors for the individual data points in the range of $\sim$ 0.02 to 0.05 mag. The Cepheids have excellent light curves (typical errors of $\sim$ 0.01 mag). The average $K_S$ magnitudes derived for both types of variables were used to derive $PLK_S$ relations that are in general good agreement within the errors with the literature data, and show a smaller scatter than previous studies.Comment: 7 pages, 6 figure. Accepted for publication in Astrophysics and Space Science. Following a presentation at the conference "The Fundamental Cosmic Distance Scale: State of the Art and the Gaia Perspective", Naples, May 201

Oscillator strengths with pseudopotentials

The time-dependent local-density approximation (TDLDA) is shown to remain accurate in describing the atomic response of IB elements under the additional approximation of using pseudopotentials to treat the effects of core electrons. This extends the work of Zangwill and Soven who showed the utility of the all-electron TDLDA in the atomic response problem.Comment: 13 pages including 3 Postscript figure

Description of inclusive scattering of 4.045 GeV electrons from D

We exploit a relationship between the Structure Functions of nucleons, the physical deuteron and of a deuteron, composed of point-nucleons to compute angular distributions of inclusive cross sections of 4.05 GeV electrons. We report general agreement with data and interpret the remaining discrepancies. We discuss the potential of the data for information on neutron structure functions $F_k^n(x,Q^2)$ and the static form factor $G_M^n(Q^2)$.Comment: 9 pages,1 Fig., PS fil

Larval fish dispersal in a coral-reef seascape

Free to read at publisher's site. Larval dispersal is a critical yet enigmatic process in the persistence and productivity of marine metapopulations. Empirical data on larval dispersal remain scarce, hindering the use of spatial management tools in efforts to sustain ocean biodiversity and fisheries. Here we document dispersal among subpopulations of clownfish (Amphiprion percula) and butterflyfish (Chaetodon vagabundus) from eight sites across a large seascape (10,000 km(2)) in Papua New Guinea across 2 years. Dispersal of clownfish was consistent between years, with mean observed dispersal distances of 15 km and 10 km in 2009 and 2011, respectively. A Laplacian statistical distribution (the dispersal kernel) predicted a mean dispersal distance of 13-19 km, with 90% of settlement occurring within 31-43 km. Mean dispersal distances were considerably greater (43-64 km) for butterfly-fish, with kernels declining only gradually from spawning locations. We demonstrate that dispersal can be measured on spatial scales sufficient to inform the design of and test the performance of marine reserve networks