Belize coverage exercise study: Assessing the status to build a portfolio of targeted interventions for vulnerable girls

The United Nation Children Fund, the United Nations Population Fund, and Population Council staff collaborated on a number of activities to generate evidence on the lives and experiences of adolescent girls in Belize. The goal of the collaboration was to establish targeted, evidence-based policies and programs sensitive to the unique needs of girls. The information presented in this report is of particular interest to program planners, policymakers, and decisionmakers from a wide range of institutions seeking to designate resources for programs and policies for vulnerable or marginalized subgroups of young people, particularly girls, in Belize. The report presents empirical evidence along with a substantive explanation of the indicators and issues of interest to youth and adolescents. This allows for the translation of the data and information into informed program design, policy analysis, and resource allocation to reach the underserved young people whose well-being is critical to achieving social and economic development in Belize

Long-Term Functionality of Rural Water Services in Developing Countries: A System Dynamics Approach to Understanding the Dynamic Interaction of Causal Factors

Research has shown that sustainability of rural water infrastructure in developing countries is largely affected by the dynamic and systemic interactions of technical, social, financial, institutional, and environmental factors that can lead to premature water system failure. This research employs systems dynamic modeling, which uses feedback mechanisms to understand how these factors interact dynamically to influence long-term rural water system functionality. To do this, the research first identified and aggregated key factors from literature, then asked water sector experts to indicate the polarity and strength between factors through Delphi and cross impact survey questionnaires, and finally used system dynamics modeling to identify and prioritize feedback mechanisms. The resulting model identified 101 feedback mechanisms that were dominated primarily by three and four-factor loops that contained some combination of the factors: Water System Functionality, Community, Financial, Government, Management, and Technology. These feedback mechanisms were then scored and prioritized, with the most dominant feedback mechanism identified as Water System Functionality – Community – Finance – Management. This research offers insight into the dynamic interaction of factors impacting sustainability of rural water infrastructure through the identification of these feedback mechanisms and makes a compelling case for future research to longitudinally investigate the interaction of these factors in various contexts

A multi-regional input-output analysis of ozone precursor emissions embodied in Spanish international trade

Higher levels of ozone in the troposphere is a severe threat to both environment and human health. Many countries are concerned about the effects that critical levels of ozone have on them. Countries pollute to satisfy their domestic and external demand (production perspective) and, at the same time, these countries also generate emissions abroad indirectly via their imports and via their domestic production (consumption perspective). Spain is one of the EU countries with the highest pollution records in the emissions of tropospheric ozone precursor gases. A multiregional input-output model (MRIO) allows us to analyze the total emissions embodied in Spanish international trade in 35 sectors within the EU area and the rest of the world. MRIO models, are commonly chosen as they provide an appropriate methodological framework for complete emissions footprint estimates at the national and supranational level The results show that the most polluting sectors involved in Spanish trade are Agriculture, Basic Metals, Coke and Refined Petroleum Production. Some policy recommendations follow these results; for example, a higher number of environmental regulations focused on the Agricultural sector, such as the introduction of codes of good practices in the use of fertilizers and the promotion of cleaner production technologies might lead to less burden to the environment.Ministerio de economía y competitividad (España) ECO 2014-56399-R. Claves para Desacoplar Crecimiento y Emisiones de Co2 en EspañaCátedra de economía de la energía y del medio ambiente (Universidad de Sevilla)Fundación Roger TornéJunta de Andalucía. SEJ 13

Women experience a better long-term immune recovery and a better survival on HAART in Lao People's Democratic Republic.

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>In April 2003, Médecins Sans Frontières launched an HIV/AIDS programme to provide free HAART to HIV-infected patients in Laos. Although HIV prevalence is estimated as low in this country, it has been increasing in the last years. This work reports the first results of an observational cohort study and it aims to identify the principal determinants of the CD4 cells evolution and to assess mortality among patients on HAART.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>We performed a retrospective database analysis on patients initiated on HAART between 2003 and 2009 (CD4<200cells/μL or WHO stage 4). We excluded from the analysis patients who were less than 16 years old and pregnant women. To explore the determinants of the CD4 reconstitution, a linear mixed model was adjusted. To identify typical trajectories of the CD4 cells, a latent trajectory analysis was carried out. Finally, a Cox proportional-hazards model was used to reveal predictors of mortality on HAART including appointment delay greater than 1 day.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>A total of 1365 patients entered the programme and 913 (66.9%) received an HAART with a median CD4 of 49 cells/μL [IQR 15–148]. High baseline CD4 cell count and female gender were associated with a higher CD4 level over time. In addition, this gender difference increased over time. Two typical latent CD4 trajectories were revealed showing that 31% of women against 22% of men followed a high CD4 trajectory. In the long-term, women were more likely to attend appointments without delay. Mortality reached 6.2% (95% CI 4.8-8.0%) at 4 months and 9.1% (95% CI 7.3-11.3%) at 1 year. Female gender (HR=0.17, 95% CI 0.07-0.44) and high CD4 trajectory (HR=0.19, 95% CI 0.08-0.47) were independently associated with a lower death rate.</p> <p>Conclusions</p> <p>Patients who initiated HAART were severely immunocompromised yielding to a high early mortality. In the long-term on HAART, women achieved a better CD4 cells reconstitution than men and were less likely to die. This study highlights important differences between men and women regarding response to HAART and medical care, and questions men’s compliance to treatment.</p

Access to antiretroviral therapy and survival in eastern Europe and central Asia: a case study in Armenia

INTRODUCTION: Antiretroviral therapy (ART) substantially improves the health of people living with HIV and contributes to preventing new infections. While HIV incidence is decreasing in most regions, the epidemic in eastern Europe continues to rise, as new infections currently outnumber the rate of ART initiation. In this study, we assess ART use in Armenia and its impact on the number of AIDS diagnoses and mortality. METHODS: National surveillance data were obtained from the National Centre for AIDS Prevention, Armenia. Cox-proportional hazard models were used to determine the effect of demographic and clinical risk factors, including access to ART, on AIDS and mortality. RESULTS: Among people diagnosed with HIV since 2005, approximately 40% per year were diagnosed with CD4<200 cells per mL. Overall, 232 people (57.1%) with AIDS or a low CD4 count had not received ART by the end of 2010. Mortality was 34.1% among people living with HIV who did not initiate ART, and 0.3% among people who received ART. Among people diagnosed with HIV from 1996 to 2010, age at diagnosis, no use of ART, likely mode of transmission, likely place of transmission, low baseline CD4 count and no STI diagnosis at last contact are significantly associated with death. DISCUSSION: In Armenia, HIV is frequently diagnosed at a late stage of disease, indicating low testing rates. Of people diagnosed with HIV and in need of ART, a large proportion (approximately 60%) either do not provide consent for treatment, or are who migrants who cannot be located. CONCLUSIONS: Globally, the scale-up of ART has resulted in substantial reductions in mortality among individuals initiating therapy. However, in an era of momentum for treatment as prevention, treatment levels are not at adequate levels for preventing morbidities and mortality in some settings. Particular focus should be placed on key at-risk subgroups.Kylie‐Ann Mallitt, Samvel R Grigoryan, Arshak S Papoyan, Handan C Wand, David P Wilso

Perspectives on Intergenerational Vulnerability for Adolescents Affected by HIV: An Argument for Voice and Visibility

The authors address the dynamic role of adolescents affected by HIV and AIDS. They analyse evidence for how intergenerational dynamics interact with HIV?related vulnerability, through the likely influence of being AIDS?affected on vulnerability to HIV infection, and through intergenerational reproductions of structural disadvantages and social determinants of HIV vulnerability. They review evidence of AIDS' impacts on children and of contextual influences on their vulnerability to infection, linked to orphaning, inequality and lack of education. They point to the paucity of longitudinal research into this area and challenges in uncovering structural determinants of vulnerability. Pressure for generalised ‘hard’ evidence in global policy fails to capture context?specific dynamics. Focus shifts from the notion of children as passive ‘objects’ of study to one that includes ‘agency’ as central to adolescents maturing and interacting with multiple challenges. The authors argue for new approaches to research and policy, giving children voice and visibility in these debates

Cutaneous Head and Neck Squamous Cell Carcinoma with Regional Metastases: The Prognostic Importance of Soft Tissue Metastases and Extranodal Spread

Extranodal spread (ENS) is an established adverse prognostic factor in metastatic cutaneous squamous cell carcinoma (cSCC); however, the clinical significance of soft tissue metastases (STM) is unknown. The aim of this study was to evaluate the prognosis of patients with STM from head and neck cSCC, and to compare this with that of node metastases with and without ENS. Patients with cSCC metastatic to the parotid and/or neck treated by primary surgical resection between 1987 and 2007 were included. Metastatic nodes > 3 cm in size were an exclusion criterion. A Cox proportional hazard model was used to determine the effect of STM adjusting for other relevant prognostic factors. The population included 164 patients with a median follow-up of 26 months. There were 8 distant and 37 regional recurrences. There were 22 were cancer-specific deaths, and 29 patients died. STM was a significant predictor of reduced overall (hazard ratio 3.3; 95% confidence interval 1.6-6.4; P = 0.001) and disease-free survival (hazard ratio 2.4; 95% confidence interval 1.4-4.1; P = 0.001) when compared to patients with node disease with or without ENS. After adjusting for covariates, STM and number of involved nodes were significant independent predictors of overall and disease-free survival. In metastatic cSCC of the head and neck, the presence of STM is an independent predictor of reduced survival and is associated with a greater adverse effect than ENS alone

Population uptake of antiretroviral treatment through primary care in rural South Africa

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>KwaZulu-Natal is the South African province worst affected by HIV and the focus of early modeling studies investigating strategies of antiretroviral treatment (ART) delivery. The reality of antiretroviral roll-out through primary care has differed from that anticipated and real world data are needed to inform the planning of further scaling up of services. We investigated the factors associated with uptake of antiretroviral treatment through a primary healthcare system in rural South Africa.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>Detailed demographic, HIV surveillance and geographic information system (GIS) data were used to estimate the proportion of HIV positive adults accessing antiretroviral treatment within northern KwaZulu-Natal, South Africa in the period from initiation of antiretroviral roll-out until the end of 2008. Demographic, spatial and socioeconomic factors influencing the likelihood of individuals accessing antiretroviral treatment were explored using multivariable analysis.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>Mean uptake of ART among HIV positive resident adults was 21.0% (95%CI 20.1-21.9). Uptake among HIV positive men (19.2%) was slightly lower than women (21.8%, P = 0.011). An individual's likelihood of accessing ART was not associated with level of education, household assets or urban/rural locale. ART uptake was strongly negatively associated with distance from the nearest primary healthcare facility (aOR = 0.728 per square-root transformed km, 95%CI 0.658-0.963, <it>P </it>= 0.002).</p> <p>Conclusions</p> <p>Despite concerns about the equitable nature of antiretroviral treatment rollout, we find very few differences in ART uptake across a range of socio-demographic variables in a rural South African population. However, even when socio-demographic factors were taken into account, individuals living further away from primary healthcare clinics were still significantly less likely to be accessing ART</p

People and planet : addressing the interlinked challenges of climate change, poverty and hunger in Asia and the Pacific

Global collective climate action is not progressing fast enough to reduce carbon emissions or build necessary adaptive capacity to the impacts of changing weather patterns. In the Asia-Pacific region, climate change threatens to worsen hunger and poverty and is undoing gains in sustainable development achieved by the region over recent decades. This edition of the Asia-Pacific Sustainable Development Goals (SDG) Partnership Report — People and Planet: Addressing Climate Change, Poverty and Hunger in Asia and the Pacific — focuses on how the varying impacts of climate change across the region are interacting with poverty and hunger against a backdrop of continuing cost-of-living pressures, global conflict, and increasing climate shocks, at a time when many countries are still recovering from the fiscal strain of the COVID-19 pandemic, over-extended borrowing, and the high cost of debt.   Transformative solutions require us all to row in the same direction, with respect to enablers like education, institutional capacity building, innovative financing, and partnerships. Numerous examples of innovations, good practices, and responses from across the region are highlighted to provide inspiration for action.</p