Disease emergence and dynamics on biologically motivated contact networks

Infectious disease transmission requires that epidemiologically relevant contact occurs between infectious and susceptible individuals. Thus, for mathematical models to accurately predict disease emergence and dynamics they must incorporate the contact patterns responsible for transmission. In this context, this thesis investigates how the level of contact detail included in an infectious disease model influences its predictions. Three models are considered. The first investigates infections spreading through territorial populations, with potential canine rabies spread in Australian wild dogs a case study. Two factors governing wild dog contacts are considered: geographic distance and heterogeneous wild dog behaviour. Not including spatial constraints results in a model that overestimates the probability of an epidemic and that fails to generate the outcome 'rate of spread'. Conversely, not incorporating heterogeneous dog behaviour results in a model that underestimates the probability an epidemic will occur. The second model investigates tick-borne pathogen spread between ticks and vertebrate hosts. Key features of tick feeding behaviour include: tick aggregation on hosts, co-aggregation of larval and nymphal ticks on the same hosts, and co-feeding. Co-aggregation increases R0. Models failing to incorporate tick co-aggregation will therefore underestimate the likelihood of pathogen emergence, especially in geographic regions and seasons where larval burden is high and for pathogens mainly transmitted during co-feeding. The third model investigates the effect of clustering (triangle and square contact patterns) on the spread of infection through social networks. Clustering reduces R0 and the magnitude of the reduction increases with higher transmission probabilities. Models that fail to incorporate clustering will overestimate the likelihood of disease establishment, especially for highly transmissible diseases. In conclusion, the three disease models collectively reveal model predictions are improved and additional outcomes are generated by the inclusion of realistic host contact patterns. These findings reinforce the value of incorporating biologically-faithful contact patterns into infectious disease models

Tuberculosis in a South African prison - a transmission modelling analysis

Background. Prisons are recognised internationally as institutions with very high tuberculosis (TB) burdens where transmission is predominantly determined by contact between infectious and susceptible prisoners. A. recent South African court case described the conditions under which prisoners awaiting trial were kept. With the use of these data, a mathematical model was developed to explore the interactions between incarceration conditions and TB control measures. Methods. Cell dimensions, cell occupancy, lock-up time, TB incidence and treatment delays were derived from court evidence and judicial reports. Using the Wells-Riley equation and probability analyses of contact between prisoners, we estimated the current TB transmission probability within prison cells, and estimated transmission probabilities of improved levels of case finding in combination with implementation of national and international minimum standards for incarceration. Results. Levels of overcrowding (230%) in communal cells and Poor TB case finding result in annual TB transmission risks of 90% per annum. Implementing current national or international cell occupancy recommendations would reduce TB transmission probabilities by 30% and 50%, respectively. Improved passive case finding, modest ventilation increase or decreased lock-up time would minimally impact on transmission if introduced individually. However, active case finding together with implementation of minimum national and international standards of incarceration could reduce transmission by 50% and 94%, respectively. Conclusions. Current conditions of detention for awaiting-trial prisoners are highly conducive for spread of drug-sensitive and drug-resistant TB. Combinations of simple well-established scientific control measures should be implemented urgently

Characteristics of Marri (Corymbia calophylla) fruits in relation to the foraging behaviour of the Forest Red-tailed Black Cockatoo (Calyptorhynchus banksii naso)

Forest Red-tailed Black Cockatoos (Calyptorhynchus banksii naso) feed predominantly on seeds of the eucalypt Marri (Corymbia calophylla) and often only from specific feed trees. There was no difference between wet weight of fruits from feed (24.1 ± 1.72 g) and non-feed trees (23.2 ± 1.57 g), but trees from which Forest Red-tailed Black Cockatoos fed had a significantly higher seed number per fruit (3.9 ± 0.18), a greater individual dry seed weight (0.10 ± 0.003 g) and total seed weight per fruit (0.39 ± 0.02 g), and a higher ratio of total seed dry weight to fruit wet weight (0.02 ± 0.001) compared with non-feed trees (3.1 ± 0.20 seeds per fruit; 0.09 ± 0.005 g individual seed dry weight; 0.29 ± 0.020 g total seed dry weight per fruit; 0.013 ± 0.001 ratio of total seed dry weight to fruit wet weight). Discriminate analysis had a limited capacity to predict Marri use by Forest Red-tailed Black Cockatoos, correctly classifying about 70 % of feed trees. Seed number and total seed mass were the best fruit characteristics for the prediction of tree type. We conclude that Forest Red-tailed Black Cockatoos selectively forage from trees with fruits that have a high seed yield, but the method by which the cockatoos select these trees is unclear

Predicted spatial spread of canine rabies in Australia

Modelling disease dynamics is most useful when data are limited. We present a spatial transmission model for the spread of canine rabies in the currently rabies-free wild dog population of Australia. The introduction of a sub-clinically infected dog from Indonesia is a distinct possibility, as is the spillover infection of wild dogs. Ranges for parameters were estimated from the literature and expert opinion, or set to span an order of magnitude. Rabies was judged to have spread spatially if a new infectious case appeared 120 km from the index case. We found 21% of initial value settings resulted in canine rabies spreading 120km, and on doing so at a median speed of 67 km/year. Parameters governing dog movements and behaviour, around which there is a paucity of knowledge, explained most of the variance in model outcomes. Dog density, especially when interactions with other parameters were included, explained some of the variance in whether rabies spread 120km, but dog demography (mean lifespan and mean replacement period) had minimal impact. These results provide a clear research direction if Australia is to improve its preparedness for rabies

A model of population dynamics of TB in a prison system and application to South Africa

BACKGROUND: Tuberculosis (TB) continues to spread in South African prisons in particular, as prisons are over-capacitated and have poor ventilation. The awaiting trial detainees are not screened on admission and are at high risk of getting infected with TB. RESULTS: We propose a compartmental model to describe the population dynamics of TB disease in prisons. Our model considers the inflow of susceptible, exposed and TB infectives into the prison population. Removal of individuals out of the prison population can be either by death or by being released from prison, as compared to a general population in which removal is only by death. We describe conditions, including non-inflow of infectives into the prison, which will ensure that TB can be eradicated from the prison population. The model is calibrated for the South African prison system, by using data in existing literature. The model can be used to make quantitative projections of TB prevalence and to measure the effect of interventions. Illustrative simulations in this regard are presented. The model can be used for other prison populations too, if data is available to calculate the model parameters. CONCLUSIONS: Various simulations generated with our model serve to illustrate how it can be utilized in making future projections of the levels of prevalence of TB, and to quantify the effect of interventions such as screening, treatment or reduction of transmission parameter values through improved living conditions for inmates. This makes it particularly useful as there are various targets set by the World Health Organization and by governments, for reduction of TB prevalence and ultimately its eradication. Towards eradication of TB from a prison system, the theorem on global stability of the disease-free state is a useful indicator

The JCMT Gould Belt Survey: Evidence for radiative heating in Serpens MWC 297 and its influence on local star formation

We present SCUBA-2 450micron and 850micron observations of the Serpens MWC 297 region, part of the JCMT Gould Belt Survey of nearby star-forming regions. Simulations suggest that radiative feedback influences the star-formation process and we investigate observational evidence for this by constructing temperature maps. Maps are derived from the ratio of SCUBA-2 fluxes and a two component model of the JCMT beam for a fixed dust opacity spectral index of beta = 1.8. Within 40 of the B1.5Ve Herbig star MWC 297, the submillimetre fluxes are contaminated by free-free emission with a spectral index of 1.03+-0.02, consistent with an ultra-compact HII region and polar winds/jets. Contamination accounts for 73+-5 per cent and 82+-4 per cent of peak flux at 450micron and 850micron respectively. The residual thermal disk of the star is almost undetectable at these wavelengths. Young Stellar Objects are confirmed where SCUBA-2 850micron clumps identified by the fellwalker algorithm coincide with Spitzer Gould Belt Survey detections. We identify 23 objects and use Tbol to classify nine YSOs with masses 0.09 to 5.1 Msun. We find two Class 0, one Class 0/I, three Class I and three Class II sources. The mean temperature is 15+-2K for the nine YSOs and 32+-4K for the 14 starless clumps. We observe a starless clump with an abnormally high mean temperature of 46+-2K and conclude that it is radiatively heated by the star MWC 297. Jeans stability provides evidence that radiative heating by the star MWC 297 may be suppressing clump collapse.Comment: 24 pages, 13 figures, 7 table

The JCMT Gould Belt Survey: A First Look at the Auriga–California Molecular Cloud with SCUBA-2

We present 850 and 450 μm observations of the dense regions within the Auriga–California molecular cloud using SCUBA-2 as part of the JCMT Gould Belt Legacy Survey to identify candidate protostellar objects, measure the masses of their circumstellar material (disk and envelope), and compare the star formation to that in the Orion A molecular cloud. We identify 59 candidate protostars based on the presence of compact submillimeter emission, complementing these observations with existing Herschel/SPIRE maps. Of our candidate protostars, 24 are associated with young stellar objects (YSOs) in the Spitzer and Herschel/PACS catalogs of 166 and 60 YSOs, respectively (177 unique), confirming their protostellar nature. The remaining 35 candidate protostars are in regions, particularly around LkHα 101, where the background cloud emission is too bright to verify or rule out the presence of the compact 70 μm emission that is expected for a protostellar source. We keep these candidate protostars in our sample but note that they may indeed be prestellar in nature. Our observations are sensitive to the high end of the mass distribution in Auriga–Cal. We find that the disparity between the richness of infrared star-forming objects in Orion A and the sparsity in Auriga–Cal extends to the submillimeter, suggesting that the relative star formation rates have not varied over the Class II lifetime and that Auriga–Cal will maintain a lower star formation efficiency

Criminal Justice Reform as HIV and TB Prevention in African Prisons

Katherine Todrys and Joseph Amon argue for criminal justice system reforms in sub-Saharan Africa to reduce HIV and TB transmission in prisons and to guarantee detainees' human rights and health

The challenges of long-term invasive mammal management: lessons from the UK

We consider the motivations, strategies, and costs involved in invasive mammal management undertaken in the UK. Widespread established invasive mammals require long‐term management to limit damage or spread, but ongoing management is costly and complex. Long‐term management is most effective where it is applied at a landscape scale, but this requires overarching co‐ordination between multiple stakeholders. Five challenges for successful long‐term management of invasive mammal species are identified as follows: defining landscape‐scale strategies, management co‐ordination, stakeholder and community engagement, sustainable funding, and evidence requirements. We make recommendations on the supportive infrastructure needed for effective landscape‐scale management of invasive mammals to fulfil long‐term conservation aims, as follows. 1. There is a need for evidence‐based Invasive Species Action Plans to provide strategy for the long‐term ongoing management of prioritised species at appropriate scales. 2. Where possible, multispecies approaches to invasive species management should be adopted. 3. Trusted leadership should be identified to take ownership of Action Plans and provide an overarching co‐ordination to bring individuals, organisations, and funders together. 4. Support for a centralised hub for training, data, and knowledge flows will greatly improve scientific outcomes through a searchable evidence base, and via best practice and knowledge sharing

'Education, education, education' : legal, moral and clinical

This article brings together Professor Donald Nicolson's intellectual interest in professional legal ethics and his long-standing involvement with law clinics both as an advisor at the University of Cape Town and Director of the University of Bristol Law Clinic and the University of Strathclyde Law Clinic. In this article he looks at how legal education may help start this process of character development, arguing that the best means is through student involvement in voluntary law clinics. And here he builds upon his recent article which argues for voluntary, community service oriented law clinics over those which emphasise the education of students