Assessment of epidemic projections using recent HIV survey data in South Africa: A validation analysis of ten mathematical models of HIV epidemiology in the antiretroviral therapy era

Background: Mathematical models are widely used to simulate the effects of interventions to control HIV and to project future epidemiological trends and resource needs. We aimed to validate past model projections against data from a large household survey done in South Africa in 2012. Methods: We compared ten model projections of HIV prevalence, HIV incidence, and antiretroviral therapy (ART) coverage for South Africa with estimates from national household survey data from 2012. Model projections for 2012 were made before the publication of the 2012 household survey. We compared adult (age 15-49 years) HIV prevalence in 2012, the change in prevalence between 2008 and 2012, and prevalence, incidence, and ART coverage by sex and by age groups between model projections and the 2012 household survey. Findings: All models projected lower prevalence estimates for 2012 than the survey estimate (18·8%), with eight models' central projections being below the survey 95% CI (17·5-20·3). Eight models projected that HIV prevalence would remain unchanged (n=5) or decline (n=3) between 2008 and 2012, whereas prevalence estimates from the household surveys increased from 16·9% in 2008 to 18·8% in 2012 (difference 1·9, 95% CI -0·1 to 3·9). Model projections accurately predicted the 1·6 percentage point prevalence decline (95% CI -0·3 to 3·5) in young adults aged 15-24 years, and the 2·2 percentage point (0·5 to 3·9) increase in those aged 50 years and older. Models accurately represented the number of adults on ART in 2012; six of ten models were within the survey 95% CI of 1·54-2·12 million. However, the differential ART coverage between women and men was not fully captured; all model projections of the sex ratio of women to men on ART were lower than the survey estimate of 2·22 (95% CI 1·73-2·71). Interpretation: Projections for overall declines in HIV epidemics during the ART era might have been optimistic. Future treatment and HIV prevention needs might be greater than previously forecasted. Additional data about service provision for HIV care could help inform more accurate projections. Funding: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation

Global age-sex-specific fertility, mortality, healthy life expectancy (HALE), and population estimates in 204 countries and territories, 1950–2019: a comprehensive demographic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019

Background: Accurate and up-to-date assessment of demographic metrics is crucial for understanding a wide range of social, economic, and public health issues that affect populations worldwide. The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2019 produced updated and comprehensive demographic assessments of the key indicators of fertility, mortality, migration, and population for 204 countries and territories and selected subnational locations from 1950 to 2019. Methods: 8078 country-years of vital registration and sample registration data, 938 surveys, 349 censuses, and 238 other sources were identified and used to estimate age-specific fertility. Spatiotemporal Gaussian process regression (ST-GPR) was used to generate age-specific fertility rates for 5-year age groups between ages 15 and 49 years. With extensions to age groups 10–14 and 50–54 years, the total fertility rate (TFR) was then aggregated using the estimated age-specific fertility between ages 10 and 54 years. 7417 sources were used for under-5 mortality estimation and 7355 for adult mortality. ST-GPR was used to synthesise data sources after correction for known biases. Adult mortality was measured as the probability of death between ages 15 and 60 years based on vital registration, sample registration, and sibling histories, and was also estimated using ST-GPR. HIV-free life tables were then estimated using estimates of under-5 and adult mortality rates using a relational model life table system created for GBD, which closely tracks observed age-specific mortality rates from complete vital registration when available. Independent estimates of HIV-specific mortality generated by an epidemiological analysis of HIV prevalence surveys and antenatal clinic serosurveillance and other sources were incorporated into the estimates in countries with large epidemics. Annual and single-year age estimates of net migration and population for each country and territory were generated using a Bayesian hierarchical cohort component model that analysed estimated age-specific fertility and mortality rates along with 1250 censuses and 747 population registry years. We classified location-years into seven categories on the basis of the natural rate of increase in population (calculated by subtracting the crude death rate from the crude birth rate) and the net migration rate. We computed healthy life expectancy (HALE) using years lived with disability (YLDs) per capita, life tables, and standard demographic methods. Uncertainty was propagated throughout the demographic estimation process, including fertility, mortality, and population, with 1000 draw-level estimates produced for each metric. Findings: The global TFR decreased from 2•72 (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 2•66–2•79) in 2000 to 2•31 (2•17–2•46) in 2019. Global annual livebirths increased from 134•5 million (131•5–137•8) in 2000 to a peak of 139•6 million (133•0–146•9) in 2016. Global livebirths then declined to 135•3 million (127•2–144•1) in 2019. Of the 204 countries and territories included in this study, in 2019, 102 had a TFR lower than 2•1, which is considered a good approximation of replacement-level fertility. All countries in sub-Saharan Africa had TFRs above replacement level in 2019 and accounted for 27•1% (95% UI 26•4–27•8) of global livebirths. Global life expectancy at birth increased from 67•2 years (95% UI 66•8–67•6) in 2000 to 73•5 years (72•8–74•3) in 2019. The total number of deaths increased from 50•7 million (49•5–51•9) in 2000 to 56•5 million (53•7–59•2) in 2019. Under-5 deaths declined from 9•6 million (9•1–10•3) in 2000 to 5•0 million (4•3–6•0) in 2019. Global population increased by 25•7%, from 6•2 billion (6•0–6•3) in 2000 to 7•7 billion (7•5–8•0) in 2019. In 2019, 34 countries had negative natural rates of increase; in 17 of these, the population declined because immigration was not sufficient to counteract the negative rate of decline. Globally, HALE increased from 58•6 years (56•1–60•8) in 2000 to 63•5 years (60•8–66•1) in 2019. HALE increased in 202 of 204 countries and territories between 2000 and 2019. Interpretation: Over the past 20 years, fertility rates have been dropping steadily and life expectancy has been increasing, with few exceptions. Much of this change follows historical patterns linking social and economic determinants, such as those captured by the GBD Socio-demographic Index, with demographic outcomes. More recently, several countries have experienced a combination of low fertility and stagnating improvement in mortality rates, pushing more populations into the late stages of the demographic transition. Tracking demographic change and the emergence of new patterns will be essential for global health monitoring. Funding: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation. © 2020 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd. This is an Open Access article under the CC BY 4.0 licens

Search for the Zγ decay mode of new high-mass resonances in pp collisions at √s = 13 TeV with the ATLAS detector

This letter presents a search for narrow, high-mass resonances in the Zγ final state with the Z boson decaying into a pair of electrons or muons. The √s = 13 TeV pp collision data were recorded by the ATLAS detector at the CERN Large Hadron Collider and have an integrated luminosity of 140 fb−1. The data are found to be in agreement with the Standard Model background expectation. Upper limits are set on the resonance production cross section times the decay branching ratio into Zγ. For spin-0 resonances produced via gluon–gluon fusion, the observed limits at 95% confidence level vary between 65.5 fb and 0.6 fb, while for spin-2 resonances produced via gluon–gluon fusion (or quark–antiquark initial states) limits vary between 77.4 (76.1) fb and 0.6 (0.5) fb, for the mass range from 220 GeV to 3400 GeV

Inclusive-photon production and its dependence on photon isolation in pp collisions at s√ = 13 TeV using 139 fb−1 of ATLAS data

Measurements of differential cross sections are presented for inclusive isolated-photon production in pp collisions at a centre-of-mass energy of 13 TeV provided by the LHC and using 139 fb−1 of data recorded by the ATLAS experiment. The cross sections are measured as functions of the photon transverse energy in different regions of photon pseudorapidity. The photons are required to be isolated by means of a fixed-cone method with two different cone radii. The dependence of the inclusive-photon production on the photon isolation is investigated by measuring the fiducial cross sections as functions of the isolation-cone radius and the ratios of the differential cross sections with different radii in different regions of photon pseudorapidity. The results presented in this paper constitute an improvement with respect to those published by ATLAS earlier: the measurements are provided for different isolation radii and with a more granular segmentation in photon pseudorapidity that can be exploited in improving the determination of the proton parton distribution functions. These improvements provide a more in-depth test of the theoretical predictions. Next-to-leading-order QCD predictions from JETPHOX and SHERPA and next-to-next-to-leading-order QCD predictions from NNLOJET are compared to the measurements, using several parameterisations of the proton parton distribution functions. The measured cross sections are well described by the fixed-order QCD predictions within the experimental and theoretical uncertainties in most of the investigated phase-space region

Search for heavy Higgs bosons with flavour-violating couplings in multi-lepton plus b-jets final states in pp collisions at 13 TeV with the ATLAS detector

A search for new heavy scalars with flavour-violating decays in final states with multiple leptons and b-tagged jets is presented. The results are interpreted in terms of a general two-Higgs-doublet model involving an additional scalar with couplings to the top-quark and the three up-type quarks (ρtt, ρtc, and ρtu). The targeted signals lead to final states with either a same-sign top-quark pair, three top-quarks, or four top-quarks. The search is based on a data sample of proton-proton collisions at √s = 13 TeV recorded with the ATLAS detector during Run 2 of the Large Hadron Collider, corresponding to an integrated luminosity of 139 fb−1. Events are categorised depending on the multiplicity of light charged leptons (electrons or muons), total lepton charge, and a deep-neural-network output to enhance the purity of each of the signals. Masses of an additional scalar boson mH between 200 − 630 GeV with couplings ρtt = 0.4, ρtc = 0.2, and ρtu = 0.2 are excluded at 95% confidence level. Additional interpretations are provided in models of R-parity violating supersymmetry, motivated by the recent flavour and (g − 2)μ anomalies

Search for a new heavy scalar particle decaying into a Higgs boson and a new scalar singlet in final states with one or two light leptons and a pair of τ-leptons with the ATLAS detector

A search for a new heavy scalar particle X decaying into a Standard Model (SM) Higgs boson and a new singlet scalar particle S is presented. The search uses a proton-proton (pp) collision data sample with an integrated luminosity of 140 fb−1 recorded at a centre-of-mass energy of s√ = 13 TeV with the ATLAS detector at the Large Hadron Collider. The most sensitive mass parameter space is explored in X mass ranging from 500 to 1500 GeV, with the corresponding S mass in the range 200–500 GeV. The search selects events with two hadronically decaying τ-lepton candidates from H → τ+τ− decays and one or two light leptons (ℓ = e, μ) from S → VV (V = W, Z) decays while the remaining V boson decays hadronically or to neutrinos. A multivariate discriminant based on event kinematics is used to separate the signal from the background. No excess is observed beyond the expected SM background and 95% confidence level upper limits between 72 fb and 542 fb are derived on the cross-section σ(pp → X → SH) assuming the same SM-Higgs boson-like decay branching ratios for the S → VV decay. Upper limits on the visible cross-sections σ(pp → X → SH → WWττ) and σ(pp → X → SH → ZZττ) are also set in the ranges 3–26 fb and 6–33 fb, respectively

Search for single production of vector-like T quarks decaying into Ht or Zt in pp collisions at s√ = 13 TeV with the ATLAS detector

This paper describes a search for the single production of an up-type vector-like quark (T) decaying as T → Ht or T → Zt. The search utilises a dataset of pp collisions at s√ = 13 TeV collected with the ATLAS detector during the 2015–2018 data-taking period of the Large Hadron Collider, corresponding to an integrated luminosity of 139 fb−1. Data are analysed in final states containing a single lepton with multiple jets and b-jets. The presence of boosted heavy resonances in the event is exploited to discriminate the signal from the Standard Model background. No significant excess above the Standard Model expectation is observed, and 95% CL upper limits are set on the production cross section of T quarks in different decay channels. The results are interpreted in several benchmark scenarios to set limits on the mass and universal coupling strength (κ) of the vector-like quark. For singlet T quarks, κ values above 0.53 are excluded for all masses below 2.3 TeV. At a mass of 1.6 TeV, κ values as low as 0.35 are excluded. For T quarks in the doublet scenario, where the production cross section is much lower, κ values above 0.72 are excluded for all masses below 1.7 TeV, and this exclusion is extended to κ above 0.55 for low masses around 1.0 TeV

Search for excited τ-leptons and leptoquarks in the final state with τ-leptons and jets in pp collisions at s√ = 13 TeV with the ATLAS detector

A search is reported for excited τ-leptons and leptoquarks in events with two hadronically decaying τ-leptons and two or more jets. The search uses proton-proton (pp) collision data at s√ = 13 TeV recorded by the ATLAS experiment during the Run 2 of the Large Hadron Collider in 2015–2018. The total integrated luminosity is 139 fb−1. The excited τ-lepton is assumed to be produced and to decay via a four-fermion contact interaction into an ordinary τ-lepton and a quark-antiquark pair. The leptoquarks are assumed to be produced in pairs via the strong interaction, and each leptoquark is assumed to couple to a charm or lighter quark and a τ-lepton. No excess over the background prediction is observed. Excited τ-leptons with masses below 2.8 TeV are excluded at 95% CL in scenarios with the contact interaction scale Λ set to 10 TeV. At the extreme limit of model validity where Λ is set equal to the excited τ-lepton mass, excited τ-leptons with masses below 4.6 TeV are excluded. Leptoquarks with masses below 1.3 TeV are excluded at 95% CL if their branching ratio to a charm quark and a τ-lepton equals 1. The analysis does not exploit flavour-tagging in the signal region

Measurement of the cross-sections of the electroweak and total production of a Zγ pair in association with two jets in pp collisions at √s = 13 TeV with the ATLAS detector

This Letter presents the measurement of the fiducial and differential cross-sections of the electroweak production of a Zγ pair in association with two jets. The analysis uses 140 fb−1 of LHC proton–proton collision data taken at √s = 13 TeV recorded by the ATLAS detector during the years 2015–2018. Events with a Z boson candidate decaying into either an e+e− or μ+μ− pair, a photon and two jets are selected. The electroweak component is extracted by requiring a large dijet invariant mass and by using the information about the centrality of the system and is measured with an observed and expected significance well above five standard deviations. The fiducial pp → Zγ jj cross-section for the electroweak production is measured to be 3.6 ± 0.5 fb. The total fiducial cross-section that also includes contributions where the jets arise from strong interactions is measured to be 16.8+2.0 −1.8 fb. The results are consistent with the Standard Model predictions. Differential cross-sections are also measured using the same events and are compared with parton-shower Monte Carlo simulations. Good agreement is observed between data and predictions

Charged-hadron production in pp, p+Pb, Pb+Pb, and Xe+Xe collisions at sNN−−−√ = 5 TeV with the ATLAS detector at the LHC

This paper presents measurements of charged-hadron spectra obtained in pp, p+Pb, and Pb+Pb collisions at s√ or sNN−−−√ = 5.02 TeV, and in Xe+Xe collisions at sNN−−−√ = 5.44 TeV. The data recorded by the ATLAS detector at the LHC have total integrated luminosities of 25 pb−1, 28 nb−1, 0.50 nb−1, and 3 μb−1, respectively. The nuclear modification factors RpPb and RAA are obtained by comparing the spectra in heavy-ion and pp collisions in a wide range of charged-particle transverse momenta and pseudorapidity. The nuclear modification factor RpPb shows a moderate enhancement above unity with a maximum at pT ≈ 3 GeV; the enhancement is stronger in the Pb-going direction. The nuclear modification factors in both Pb+Pb and Xe+Xe collisions feature a significant, centrality-dependent suppression. They show a similar distinct pT-dependence with a local maximum at pT ≈ 2 GeV and a local minimum at pT ≈ 7 GeV. This dependence is more distinguishable in more central collisions. No significant |η|-dependence is found. A comprehensive comparison with several theoretical predictions is also provided. They typically describe RAA better in central collisions and in the pT range from about 10 to 100 GeV