HOW FAR CAN WE FORECAST? FORECAST CONTENT HORIZONS FOR SOME IMPORTANT MACROECONOMIC TIME SERIES

For stationary transformations of variables, there exists a maximum horizon beyond which forecasts can provide no more information about the variable than is present in the unconditional mean. Meteorological forecasts, typically excepting only experimental or exploratory situations, are not reported beyond this horizon; by contrast, little generally-accepted information about such maximum horizons is available for economic variables. In this paper we estimate such content horizons for a variety of economic variables, and compare these with the maximum horizons which we observe reported in a large sample of empirical economic forecasting studies. We find that there are many instances of published studies which provide forecasts exceeding, often by substantial margins, our estimates of the content horizon for the particular variable and frequency. We suggest some simple reporting practices for forecasts that could potentially bring greater transparency to the process of making the interpreting economic forecasts.

Tuning biexciton binding and anti-binding in core/shell quantum dots

We use a path integral quantum Monte Carlo method to simulate excitons and biexcitons in core shell nanocrystals with Type-I, II and quasi-Type II band alignments. Quantum Monte Carlo techniques allow for all quantum correlations to be included when determining the thermal ground state, thus producing accurate predictions of biexciton binding. These subtle quantum correlations are found to cause the biexciton to be binding with Type-I carrier localization and strongly anti-binding with Type-II carrier localization, in agreement with experiment for both core shell nanocrystals and dot in rod nanocrystal structures. Simple treatments based on perturbative approaches are shown to miss this important transition in the biexciton binding. Understanding these correlations offers prospects to engineer strong biexciton anti-binding which is crucial to the design of nanocrystals for single exciton lasing applications.Comment: 10 pages, 11 figure

Towards a radiocarbon calibration for oxygen isotope stage 3 using New Zealand kauri (Agathis australis)

It is well known that radiocarbon years do not directly equate to calendar time. As a result, considerable effort has been devoted to generating a decadally resolved calibration curve for the Holocene and latter part of the last termination. A calibration curve that can be unambiguously attributed to changes in atmospheric ¹⁴C content has not, however, been generated beyond 26 kyr cal BP, despite the urgent need to rigorously test climatic, environmental, and archaeological models. Here, we discuss the potential of New Zealand kauri (Agathis australis) to define the structure of the ¹⁴C calibration curve using annually resolved tree rings and thereby provide an absolute measure of atmospheric ¹⁴C. We report bidecadally sampled ¹⁴C measurements obtained from a floating 1050-yr chronology, demonstrating repeatable ¹⁴C measurements near the present limits of the dating method. The results indicate that considerable scope exists for a high-resolution ¹⁴C calibration curve back through OIS-3 using subfossil wood from this source

A Discontinuous Galerkin Chimera scheme

The Chimera overset method is a powerful technique for modeling fluid flow associated with complex engineering problems using structured meshes. The use of structured meshes has enabled engineers to employ a number of high-order schemes, such as the WENO and compact differencing schemes. However, the large stencil associated with these schemes can significantly complicate the inter-grid communication scheme and hole cutting procedures. This paper demonstrates a methodology for using the Discontinuous Galerkin (DG) scheme with Chimera overset meshes. The small stencil of the DG scheme makes it particularly suitable for Chimera meshes as it simplifies the inter-grid communication scheme as well as hole cutting procedures. The DG-Chimera scheme does not require a donor interpolation method with a large stencil because the DG scheme represents the solution as cell local polynomials. The DG-Chimera method also does not require the use of fringe points to maintain the interior stencil across inter-grid boundaries. Thus, inter-grid communication can be established as long as the receiving boundary is enclosed by or abuts the donor mesh. This makes the inter-grid communication procedure applicable to both Chimera and zonal meshes. Details of the DG-Chimera scheme are presented, and the method is demonstrated on a set of two-dimensional inviscid flow problems

Recurrent spontaneous hip dislocation in a patient with neurofibromatosis type 1: a case report

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Introduction</p> <p>Neurofibromatosis type-1 is a common genetic disorder which often affects the skeleton. Skeletal manifestations of neurofibromatosis type-1 include scoliosis, congenital pseudarthrosis of the tibia and intraosseous cystic lesions. Dislocation of the hip associated with neurofibromatosis type-1 is a rare occurrence and is underreported in the literature.</p> <p>Case presentation</p> <p>We report a case of hip dislocation resulting from an intra-articular neurofibroma in an 18-year-old Caucasian woman following minor trauma. This was originally suggested by the abnormalities on early radiographs of her pelvis and later confirmed with computed tomography and magnetic resonance imaging. Treatment was successful with skeletal traction for six weeks with no further hip dislocations at a 12-year follow-up.</p> <p>Conclusion</p> <p>This case illustrates the radiological features of this rare complication of neurofibromatosis type-1 using the modalities of plain radiograph, magnetic resonance imaging and computed tomography reconstruction. The radiological images give a clear insight into the mechanism by which neurofibromatosis type-1 leads to hip dislocation. It also demonstrates one treatment option with excellent results on long-term follow-up.</p

Controlling Cherenkov angles with resonance transition radiation

Cherenkov radiation provides a valuable way to identify high energy particles in a wide momentum range, through the relation between the particle velocity and the Cherenkov angle. However, since the Cherenkov angle depends only on material's permittivity, the material unavoidably sets a fundamental limit to the momentum coverage and sensitivity of Cherenkov detectors. For example, Ring Imaging Cherenkov detectors must employ materials transparent to the frequency of interest as well as possessing permittivities close to unity to identify particles in the multi GeV range, and thus are often limited to large gas chambers. It would be extremely important albeit challenging to lift this fundamental limit and control Cherenkov angles as preferred. Here we propose a new mechanism that uses constructive interference of resonance transition radiation from photonic crystals to generate both forward and backward Cherenkov radiation. This mechanism can control Cherenkov angles in a flexible way with high sensitivity to any desired range of velocities. Photonic crystals thus overcome the severe material limit for Cherenkov detectors, enabling the use of transparent materials with arbitrary values of permittivity, and provide a promising option suited for identification of particles at high energy with enhanced sensitivity.Comment: There are 16 pages and 4 figures for the manuscript. Supplementary information with 18 pages and 5 figures, appended at the end of the file with the manuscript. Source files in Word format converted to PDF. Submitted to Nature Physic

Middle and Late Pleistocene environmental history of the Marsworth area, south-central England

To elucidate the Middle and Late Pleistocene environmental history of south-central England, we report the stratigraphy, sedimentology, palaeoecology and geochronology of some deposits near the foot of the Chiltern Hills scarp at Marsworth, Buckinghamshire. The Marsworth site is important because its sedimentary sequences contain a rich record of warm stages and cold stages, and it lies close to the Anglian glacial limit. Critical to its history are the origin and age of a brown pebbly silty clay (diamicton) previously interpreted as weathered till. The deposits described infill a river channel incised into chalk bedrock. They comprise clayey, silty and gravelly sediments, many containing locally derived chalk and some with molluscan, ostracod and vertebrate remains. Most of the deposits are readily attributed to periglacial and fluvial processes, and some are dated by optically stimulated luminescence to Marine Isotope Stage (MIS) 6. Although our sedimentological data do not discriminate between a glacial or periglacial interpretation of the diamicton, amino-acid dating of three molluscan taxa from beneath it indicates that it is younger than MIS 9 and older than MIS 5e. This makes a glacial interpretation unlikely, and we interpret the diamicton as a periglacial slope deposit. The Pleistocene history reconstructed for Marsworth identifies four key elements: (1) Anglian glaciation during MIS 12 closely approached Marsworth, introducing far-travelled pebbles such as Rhaxella chert and possibly some fine sand minerals into the area. (2) Interglacial environments inferred from fluvial sediments during MIS 7 varied from fully interglacial conditions during sub-stages 7e and 7c, cool temperate conditions during sub-stage 7b or 7a, temperate conditions similar to those today in central England towards the end of the interglacial, and cool temperate conditions during sub-stage 7a. (3) Periglacial activity during MIS 6 involved thermal contraction cracking, permafrost development, fracturing of chalk bedrock, fluvial activity, slopewash, mass movement and deposition of loess and coversand. (4) Fully interglacial conditions during sub-stage 5e led to renewed fluvial activity, soil formation and acidic weathering

A putative chordate luciferase from a cosmopolitan tunicate indicates convergent bioluminescence evolution across phyla

Pyrosomes are tunicates in the phylum Chordata, which also contains vertebrates. Their gigantic blooms play important ecological and biogeochemical roles in oceans. Pyrosoma, meaning “firebody”, derives from their brilliant bioluminescence. The biochemistry of this light production is unknown, but has been hypothesized to be bacterial in origin. We found that mixing coelenterazine—a eukaryote-specific luciferin—with Pyrosoma atlanticum homogenate produced light. To identify the bioluminescent machinery, we sequenced P. atlanticum transcriptomes and found a sequence match to a cnidarian luciferase (RLuc). We expressed this novel luciferase (PyroLuc) and, combined with coelenterazine, it produced light. A similar gene was recently predicted from a bioluminescent brittle star, indicating that RLuc-like luciferases may have evolved convergently from homologous dehalogenases across phyla (Cnidaria, Echinodermata, and Chordata). This report indicates that a widespread gene may be able to functionally converge, resulting in bioluminescence across animal phyla, and describes and characterizes the first putative chordate luciferase