Randomised multichannel singular spectrum analysis of the 20th century climate data

In this article, we introduce a new algorithm called randomised multichannel singular spectrum analysis (RMSSA), which is a generalisation of the traditional multichannel singular spectrum analysis (MSSA) into problems of arbitrarily large dimension. RMSSA consists of (1) a dimension reduction of the original data via random projections, (2) the standard MSSA step and (3) a recovery of the MSSA eigenmodes from the reduced space back to the original space. The RMSSA algorithm is presented in detail and additionally we show how to integrate it with a significance test based on a red noise null-hypothesis by Monte-Carlo simulation. Finally, RMSSA is applied to decompose the 20th century global monthly mean near-surface temperature variability into its low-frequency components. The decomposition of a reanalysis data set and two climate model simulations reveals, for instance, that the 2-6 yr variability centred in the Pacific Ocean is captured by all the data sets with some differences in statistical significance and spatial patterns.Peer reviewe

Multi-annual modes in the 20th century temperature variability in reanalyses and CMIP5 models

A performance expectation is that Earth system models simulate well the climate mean state and the climate variability. To test this expectation, we decompose two 20th century reanalysis data sets and 12 CMIP5 model simulations for the years 1901-2005 of the monthly mean near-surface air temperature using randomised multi-channel singular spectrum analysis (RMSSA). Due to the relatively short time span, we concentrate on the representation of multi-annual variability which the RMSSA method effectively captures as separate and mutually orthogonal spatio-temporal components. This decomposition is a unique way to separate statistically significant quasi-periodic oscillations from one another in high-dimensional data sets. The main results are as follows. First, the total spectra for the two reanalysis data sets are remarkably similar in all timescales, except that the spectral power in ERA-20C is systematically slightly higher than in 20CR. Apart from the slow components related to multi-decadal periodicities, ENSO oscillations with approximately 3.5- and 5-year periods are the most prominent forms of variability in both reanalyses. In 20CR, these are relatively slightly more pronounced than in ERA-20C. Since about the 1970s, the amplitudes of the 3.5- and 5-year oscillations have increased, presumably due to some combination of forced climate change, intrinsic low-frequency climate variability, or change in global observing network. Second, none of the 12 coupled climate models closely reproduce all aspects of the reanalysis spectra, although some models represent many aspects well. For instance, the GFDL-ESM2M model has two nicely separated ENSO periods although they are relatively too prominent as compared with the reanalyses. There is an extensive Supplement and YouTube videos to illustrate the multi-annual variability of the data sets.Peer reviewe

COSIMA-Rosetta calibration for in-situ characterization of 67P/Churyumov-Gerasimenko cometary inorganic compounds

20 pages, 3 figures, 5 tablesInternational audienceCOSIMA (COmetary Secondary Ion Mass Analyser) is a time-of-flight secondary ion mass spectrometer (TOF-SIMS) on board the Rosetta space mission. COSIMA has been designed to measure the composition of cometary dust grains. It has a mass resolution m/{\Delta}m of 1400 at mass 100 u, thus enabling the discrimination of inorganic mass peaks from organic ones in the mass spectra. We have evaluated the identification capabilities of the reference model of COSIMA for inorganic compounds using a suite of terrestrial minerals that are relevant for cometary science. Ground calibration demonstrated that the performances of the flight model were similar to that of the reference model. The list of minerals used in this study was chosen based on the mineralogy of meteorites, interplanetary dust particles and Stardust samples. It contains anhydrous and hydrous ferromagnesian silicates, refractory silicates and oxides (present in meteoritic Ca-Al-rich inclusions), carbonates, and Fe-Ni sulfides. From the analyses of these minerals, we have calculated relative sensitivity factors for a suite of major and minor elements in order to provide a basis for element quantification for the possible identification of major mineral classes present in the cometary grains

Random projections in reducing the dimensionality of climate simulation data

Peer reviewe

A first assessment of the strength of cometary particles collected in-situ by the COSIMA instrument onboard ROSETTA

Soon after the arrival of the ROSETTA spacecraft at Comet 67/P Churyumov-Gerasimenko the onboard instrument COSIMA (“Cometary Secondary Ion Mass Analyzer”) collected a large number of cometary dust particles on targets from gold black of thickness between 10 and 30 μm. Inspection by its camera subsystem revealed that many of them consist of smaller units of typically some tens of micrometers in size. The collection process left the smaller dust particles in an essentially unaltered state whereas most particles larger than about 100 μm got fragmented into smaller pieces. Using the observed fragment size distributions, the present paper includes a first assessment of the strength for those dust particles that were disrupted upon impact

Nitrogen-to-carbon atomic ratio measured by COSIMA in the particles of comet 67P/Churyumov–Gerasimenko

International audienceThe COmetary Secondary Ion Mass Analyzer (COSIMA) on board the Rosetta mission has analysed numerous cometary dust particles collected at very low velocities (a few m s(-1)) in the environment of comet 67P/Churyumov-Gerasimenko (hereafter 67P). In these particles, carbon and nitrogen are expected mainly to be part of the organic matter. We have measured the nitrogen-to-carbon (N/C) atomic ratio of 27 cometary particles. It ranges from 0.018 to 0.06 with an averaged value of 0.035 +/- 0.011. This is compatible with the measurements of the particles of comet 1P/Halley and is in the lower range of the values measured in comet 81P/Wild 2 particles brought back to Earth by the Stardust mission. Moreover, the averaged value found in 67P particles is also similar to the one found in the insoluble organic matter extracted from CM, CI and CR carbonaceous chondrites and to the bulk values measured in most interplanetary dust particles and micrometeorites. The close agreement of the N/C atomic ratio in all these objects indicates that their organic matters share some similarities and could have a similar chemical origin. Furthermore, compared to the abundances of all the detected elements in the particles of 67P and to the elemental solar abundances, the nitrogen is depleted in the particles and the nucleus of 67P as was previously inferred also for comet 1P/Halley. This nitrogen depletion could constrain the formation scenarios of cometary nuclei