Using Gaming Simulation to Explore Long Range Fuel and Vehicle Transitions

The world of 2050 will assuredly look different than that of 2012 in the fields of energy and transportation. The large deposits of easily accessible, conventional oil upon which the world has relied until now are in decline and will need to be supplemented with alternatives like electricity, hydrogen, biofuels, and non-conventional oils. The transition pathways are highly sensitive to economic, political, and environmental factors and are thus highly uncertain. Autopia is a simulation game designed to generate insights about the market dynamics of long-range fuel and vehicle transitions. Games have been shown to be valuable tools for generating robust, heuristic based approaches to problem domains that feature high degrees of uncertainty (i.e. uninsurable risk). Autopia simulates a three-way market of consumers, vehicle producers, and fuel producers. Human players take on player roles in the market and attempt to optimize their outcomes, relative to their competitors, within a given energy price and regulatory scenario. Analysis of game play has revealed several emergent patterns: 1) High fuel prices lead to a bifurcated vehicle market with small, cheap, gas powered vehicles dominating the low end of the market and high trim electrified vehicles (HEV, PHEV, BEV) dominating in the top 30% income bracket, 2) It is difficult to sell an alternative fuel vehicle that is easily comparable to a similar conventional vehicle due to the price difference, and 3) Aggregate gasoline demand in a mature market will fall given an improving average fuel economy, but predicting the decline will tend to cause fuel producers to under-produce. This research demonstrates a complete working prototype game, data analysis from actual games, and several insights into the system that I developed from observing multiple runs of the game

Using Gaming Simulation to Explore Long Range Fuel and Vehicle Transitions

The serious games methodology has proven itself over time as a potent tool for generating useful insights into complex problems in many fields. This methodology is used with Autopia, a simulation game designed to generate insights about the market dynamics of long-range fuel and vehicle transitions. Autopia simulates a three-way market of consumers, vehicle producers, and fuel producers. Analysis of the game play has revealed several emergent patterns: High fuel prices lead to a split vehicle market with small, cheap, gasoline-powered vehicles dominating the low end and well-equipped electric vehicles dominating the top 30% income bracket; it is difficult to sell alternative fuel vehicles that are comparable to similar conventional vehicles due to the price difference; and while overall demand for gasoline will fall with improving average fuel economy, predicting the decline will prompt fuel producers to slow production. The games demonstrate the data the system can generate and provide a way of analyzing general trends. The trends illuminate many of the challenges consumers are expected to face as the transportation system adapts to an unknown future

Refueling availability for alternative fuel vehicle markets: Sufficient urban station coverage

Alternative fuel vehicles can play an important role in addressing the challenges of climate change, energy security, urban air pollution and the continued growth in demand for transportation services. The successful commercialization of alternative fuels for vehicles is contingent upon a number of factors, including vehicle cost and performance. Among fuel infrastructure issues, adequate refueling availability is one of the most fundamental to successful commercialization. A commonly cited source reports 164,300 refueling stations in operation nationwide. However, from the perspective of refueling availability, this nationwide count tends to overstate the number of stations required to support the widespread deployment of alternative fuel vehicles. In terms of spatial distribution, the existing gasoline station networks in many urban areas are more than sufficient. We characterize a sufficient level of urban coverage based upon a subset of cities served by relatively low-density station networks, and estimate that some 51,000 urban stations would be required to provide this sufficient level of coverage to all major urban areas, 33 percent less than our estimate of total urban stations. This improved characterization will be useful for engineering, economic and policy analyses.

Refueling Availability for Alternative Fuel Vehicle Markets: Sufficient Urban Station Coverage

Alternative fuel vehicles can play an important role in addressing the challenges of climate change, energy security, urban air pollution and the continued growth in demand for transportation services. The successful commercialization of alternative fuels for vehicles is contingent upon a number of factors, including vehicle cost and performance. Among fuel infrastructure issues, adequate refueling availability is one of the most fundamental to successful commercialization. A commonly cited source reports 164,300 refueling stations in operation nationwide. However, from the perspective of refueling availability, this nationwide count tends to overstate the number of stations required to support the widespread deployment of alternative fuel vehicles. In terms of spatial distribution, the existing gasoline station networks in many urban areas are more than sufficient. We characterize a sufficient level of urban coverage based upon a subset of cities served by relatively low-density station networks, and estimate that some 51,000 urban stations would be required to provide this sufficient level of coverage to all major urban areas, 33 percent less than our estimate of total urban stations. This improved characterization will be useful for engineering, economic and policy analyses

Refueling Availability for Alternative Fuel Vehicle Markets: Sufficient Urban Station Coverage

Alternative fuel vehicles can play an important role in addressing the challenges of climate change, energy security, urban air pollution and the continued growth in demand for transportation services. The successful commercialization of alternative fuels for vehicles is contingent upon a number of factors, including vehicle cost and performance. Among fuel infrastructure issues, adequate refueling availability is one of the most fundamental to successful commercialization. A commonly cited source reports 164,300 refueling stations in operation nationwide. However, from the perspective of refueling availability, this nationwide count tends to overstate the number of stations required to support the widespread deployment of alternative fuel vehicles. In terms of spatial distribution, the existing gasoline station networks in many urban areas are more than sufficient. We characterize a sufficient level of urban coverage based upon a subset of cities served by relatively low-density station networks, and estimate that some 51,000 urban stations would be required to provide this sufficient level of coverage to all major urban areas, 33 percent less than our estimate of total urban stations. This improved characterization will be useful for engineering, economic and policy analyses.UCD-ITS-RP-08-33, Civil Engineering

New Approach to Modeling Large-Scale Transitions to Alternative Fuels and Vehicles

A large-scale transition to alternative fuels and vehicles is challenging. New modeling approaches are necessary to supplement existing models, such as MARKAL. One promising approach is simulation gaming. Simulation gaming has been used extensively in many fields, most conspicuously in military applications, to provide insights into the dynamics of uncertain processes. A large-scale game to simulate transitions to alternative fuels and vehicles was developed to explore the potential of this approach. Preliminary results of the game play suggest a possible counterintuitive dynamic: high energy prices can discourage the wide-scale adoption of alternative fuel vehicles because increased fuel costs reduce consumers' ability to pay for more costly alternative vehicle technologies

Assessment of Tire Technologies and Practices for Potential Waste and Energy Use Reductions

Tire purchasing and disposal impose considerable cost and waste burdens on private vehicle owners and fleet managers. This research investigates tire maintenance management practices and tire-related vehicle technologies that have the potential to relieve some of these burdens. We investigate behavior, attitudes, and practices of fleet personnel and individual drivers as they relate to tire attributes and technologies. Based on this research, we analyze and recommend critical practices that could improve tire purchasing, tire management, average tire life within existing vehicles in vehicle fleets. We evaluate the tire wear and energy use of various tire technologies and improved fleet tire management and find several fleet practices that offer substantial potential improvements in tire-related energy and waste consequences. Advancements in three particular areas – tire pressure monitoring, nitrogen as a tire inflation medium, and the selection of tires with lower rolling resistance – are commercially available and promising in terms of their potential benefits. Additionally, to demonstrate and empirically test the potential impact of nitrogen as an inflation medium for tires, we deploy several technologies on fleet vehicles, including data acquisition systems for retrieval of information from fleet vehicles and nitrogen inflation equipment at the California Department of General Services vehicle fleet facility. We develop the accompanying experimental design for testing the impact of nitrogen inflation on these fleet vehicles. This experiment is created in such a way that the fleet personnel can undertake the experimental testing and statistically evaluate the impact of nitrogen inflation on their vehicle fleet. From our findings, we develop best practices recommendations, which are meant to serve as a guide for improving tire practices in vehicle fleets

Assessment of Tire Technologies and Practices for Potential Waste and Energy Use Reductions

Tire purchasing and disposal impose considerable cost and waste burdens on private vehicle owners and fleet managers. This research investigates tire maintenance management practices and tire-related vehicle technologies that have the potential to relieve some of these burdens. We investigate behavior, attitudes, and practices of fleet personnel and individual drivers as they relate to tire attributes and technologies. Based on this research, we analyze and recommend critical practices that could improve tire purchasing, tire management, average tire life within existing vehicles in vehicle fleets. We evaluate the tire wear and energy use of various tire technologies and improved fleet tire management and find several fleet practices that offer substantial potential improvements in tire-related energy and waste consequences. Advancements in three particular areas – tire pressure monitoring, nitrogen as a tire inflation medium, and the selection of tires with lower rolling resistance – are commercially available and promising in terms of their potential benefits. Additionally, to demonstrate and empirically test the potential impact of nitrogen as an inflation medium for tires, we deploy several technologies on fleet vehicles, including data acquisition systems for retrieval of information from fleet vehicles and nitrogen inflation equipment at the California Department of General Services vehicle fleet facility. We develop the accompanying experimental design for testing the impact of nitrogen inflation on these fleet vehicles. This experiment is created in such a way that the fleet personnel can undertake the experimental testing and statistically evaluate the impact of nitrogen inflation on their vehicle fleet. From our findings, we develop best practices recommendations, which are meant to serve as a guide for improving tire practices in vehicle fleets.UCD-ITS-RR-06-11, Civil Engineering