A Detection of Sgr A* in the far infrared

We report the first detection of the Galactic Centre massive black hole, Sgr~A*, in the far infrared. Our measurements were obtained with PACS on board the \emph{Herschel} satellite at $100~\mathrm{\mu m}$ and $160~\mathrm{\mu m}$. While the warm dust in the Galactic Centre is too bright to allow for a direct detection of Sgr~A*, we measure a significant and simultaneous variation of its flux of $\Delta F_{\nu\widehat{=}160 ~\mathrm{\mu m}} = (0.27\pm0.06)~\mathrm{Jy}$ and $\Delta F_{\nu\widehat{=}100 ~\mathrm{\mu m}}= (0.16\pm0.10)~\mathrm{Jy}$ during one observation. The significance level of the $160 ~\mathrm{\mu m}$ band variability is $4.5\sigma$ and the corresponding $100 ~\mathrm{\mu m}$ band variability is significant at $1.6\sigma$. We find no example of an equally significant false positive detection. Conservatively assuming a variability of $25\%$ in the FIR, we can provide upper limits to the flux. Comparing the latter with theoretical models we find that 1D RIAF models have difficulties explaining the observed faintness. However, the upper limits are consistent with modern ALMA and VLA observations. Our upper limits provide further evidence for a spectral peak at $\sim 10^{12} ~ \mathrm{Hz}$ and constrain the number density of $\gamma \sim 100$ electrons in the accretion disk and or outflow.Comment: accepted for publication in AP

What stellar orbit is needed to measure the spin of the Galactic center black hole from astrometric data?

Astrometric and spectroscopic monitoring of individual stars orbiting the supermassive black hole in the Galactic Center offer a promising way to detect general relativistic effects. While low-order effects are expected to be detected following the periastron passage of S2 in Spring 2018, detecting higher-order effects due to black hole spin will require the discovery of closer stars. In this paper, we set out to determine the requirements such a star would have to satisfy to allow the detection of black hole spin. We focus on the instrument GRAVITY, which saw first light in 2016 and which is expected to achieve astrometric accuracies $10-100 \mu$as. For an observing campaign with duration $T$ years, $N_{obs}$ total observations, astrometric precision $\sigma_x$ and normalized black hole spin $\chi$, we find that $a_{orb}(1-e^2)^{3/4} \lesssim 300 R_S \sqrt{\frac{T}{4 \text{years}}} \left(\frac{N_{obs}}{120}\right)^{0.25} \sqrt{\frac{10 \mu as}{\sigma_x}} \sqrt{\frac{\chi}{0.9}}$ is needed. For $\chi=0.9$ and a potential observing campaign with $\sigma_x = 10 \mu$as, 30 observations/year and duration 4-10 years, we expect $\sim 0.1$ star with $K<19$ satisfying this constraint based on the current knowledge about the stellar population in the central 1". We also propose a method through which GRAVITY could potentially measure radial velocities with precision $\sim 50$ km/s. If the astrometric precision can be maintained, adding radial velocity information increases the expected number of stars by roughly a factor of two. While we focus on GRAVITY, the results can also be scaled to parameters relevant for future extremely large telescopes.Comment: Accepted to MNRA

The Photon Ring in M87*

We report measurements of the gravitationally lensed secondary image—the first in an infinite series of so-called “photon rings”—around the supermassive black hole M87* via simultaneous modeling and imaging of the 2017 Event Horizon Telescope (EHT) observations. The inferred ring size remains constant across the seven days of the 2017 EHT observing campaign and is consistent with theoretical expectations, providing clear evidence that such measurements probe spacetime and a striking confirmation of the models underlying the first set of EHT results. The residual diffuse emission evolves on timescales comparable to one week. We are able to detect with high significance a southwestern extension consistent with that expected from the base of a jet that is rapidly rotating in the clockwise direction. This result adds further support to the identification of the jet in M87* with a black hole spin-driven outflow, launched via the Blandford-Znajek process. We present three revised estimates for the mass of M87* based on identifying the modeled thin ring component with the bright ringlike features seen in simulated images, one of which is only weakly sensitive to the astrophysics of the emission region. All three estimates agree with each other and previously reported values. Our strongest mass constraint combines information from both the ring and the diffuse emission region, which together imply a mass-to-distance ratio of 4.20 − 0.06 + 0.12 μ as and a corresponding black hole mass of (7.13 \ub1 0.39) 7 109 M ⊙, where the error on the latter is now dominated by the systematic uncertainty arising from the uncertain distance to M87*

THEMIS: A Parameter Estimation Framework for the Event Horizon Telescope

The Event Horizon Telescope (EHT) provides the unprecedented ability to directly resolve the structure and dynamics of black hole emission regions on scales smaller than their horizons. This has the potential to critically probe the mechanisms by which black holes accrete and launch outflows, and the structure of supermassive black hole spacetimes. However, accessing this information is a formidable analysis challenge for two reasons. First, the EHT natively produces a variety of data types that encode information about the image structure in nontrivial ways; these are subject to a variety of systematic effects associated with very long baseline interferometry and are supplemented by a wide variety of auxiliary data on the primary EHT targets from decades of other observations. Second, models of the emission regions and their interaction with the black hole are complex, highly uncertain, and computationally expensive to construct. As a result, the scientific utilization of EHT observations requires a flexible, extensible, and powerful analysis framework. We present such a framework, Themis, which defines a set of interfaces between models, data, and sampling algorithms that facilitates future development. We describe the design and currently existing components of Themis, how Themis has been validated thus far, and present additional analyses made possible by Themis that illustrate its capabilities. Importantly, we demonstrate that Themis is able to reproduce prior EHT analyses, extend these, and do so in a computationally efficient manner that can efficiently exploit modern high-performance computing facilities. Themis has already been used extensively in the scientific analysis and interpretation of the first EHT observations of M87

Monitoring the Morphology of M87* in 2009–2017 with the Event Horizon Telescope

The Event Horizon Telescope (EHT) has recently delivered the first resolved images of M87*, the supermassive black hole in the center of the M87 galaxy. These images were produced using 230 GHz observations performed in 2017 April. Additional observations are required to investigate the persistence of the primary image feature—a ring with azimuthal brightness asymmetry—and to quantify the image variability on event horizon scales. To address this need, we analyze M87* data collected with prototype EHT arrays in 2009, 2011, 2012, and 2013. While these observations do not contain enough information to produce images, they are sufficient to constrain simple geometric models. We develop a modeling approach based on the framework utilized for the 2017 EHT data analysis and validate our procedures using synthetic data. Applying the same approach to the observational data sets, we find the M87* morphology in 2009–2017 to be consistent with a persistent asymmetric ring of ~40 μas diameter. The position angle of the peak intensity varies in time. In particular, we find a significant difference between the position angle measured in 2013 and 2017. These variations are in broad agreement with predictions of a subset of general relativistic magnetohydrodynamic simulations. We show that quantifying the variability across multiple observational epochs has the potential to constrain the physical properties of the source, such as the accretion state or the black hole spin

A Universal Power-law Prescription for Variability from Synthetic Images of Black Hole Accretion Flows

We present a framework for characterizing the spatiotemporal power spectrum of the variability expected from the horizon-scale emission structure around supermassive black holes, and we apply this framework to a library of general relativistic magnetohydrodynamic (GRMHD) simulations and associated general relativistic ray-traced images relevant for Event Horizon Telescope (EHT) observations of Sgr A*. We find that the variability power spectrum is generically a red-noise process in both the temporal and spatial dimensions, with the peak in power occurring on the longest timescales and largest spatial scales. When both the time-averaged source structure and the spatially integrated light-curve variability are removed, the residual power spectrum exhibits a universal broken power-law behavior. On small spatial frequencies, the residual power spectrum rises as the square of the spatial frequency and is proportional to the variance in the centroid of emission. Beyond some peak in variability power, the residual power spectrum falls as that of the time-averaged source structure, which is similar across simulations; this behavior can be naturally explained if the variability arises from a multiplicative random field that has a steeper high-frequency power-law index than that of the time-averaged source structure. We briefly explore the ability of power spectral variability studies to constrain physical parameters relevant for the GRMHD simulations, which can be scaled to provide predictions for black holes in a range of systems in the optically thin regime. We present specific expectations for the behavior of the M87* and Sgr A* accretion flows as observed by the EHT

Impact of COVID-19 on cardiovascular testing in the United States versus the rest of the world

Objectives: This study sought to quantify and compare the decline in volumes of cardiovascular procedures between the United States and non-US institutions during the early phase of the coronavirus disease-2019 (COVID-19) pandemic. Background: The COVID-19 pandemic has disrupted the care of many non-COVID-19 illnesses. Reductions in diagnostic cardiovascular testing around the world have led to concerns over the implications of reduced testing for cardiovascular disease (CVD) morbidity and mortality. Methods: Data were submitted to the INCAPS-COVID (International Atomic Energy Agency Non-Invasive Cardiology Protocols Study of COVID-19), a multinational registry comprising 909 institutions in 108 countries (including 155 facilities in 40 U.S. states), assessing the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on volumes of diagnostic cardiovascular procedures. Data were obtained for April 2020 and compared with volumes of baseline procedures from March 2019. We compared laboratory characteristics, practices, and procedure volumes between U.S. and non-U.S. facilities and between U.S. geographic regions and identified factors associated with volume reduction in the United States. Results: Reductions in the volumes of procedures in the United States were similar to those in non-U.S. facilities (68% vs. 63%, respectively; p = 0.237), although U.S. facilities reported greater reductions in invasive coronary angiography (69% vs. 53%, respectively; p < 0.001). Significantly more U.S. facilities reported increased use of telehealth and patient screening measures than non-U.S. facilities, such as temperature checks, symptom screenings, and COVID-19 testing. Reductions in volumes of procedures differed between U.S. regions, with larger declines observed in the Northeast (76%) and Midwest (74%) than in the South (62%) and West (44%). Prevalence of COVID-19, staff redeployments, outpatient centers, and urban centers were associated with greater reductions in volume in U.S. facilities in a multivariable analysis. Conclusions: We observed marked reductions in U.S. cardiovascular testing in the early phase of the pandemic and significant variability between U.S. regions. The association between reductions of volumes and COVID-19 prevalence in the United States highlighted the need for proactive efforts to maintain access to cardiovascular testing in areas most affected by outbreaks of COVID-19 infection