Moving forward in circles: challenges and opportunities in modelling population cycles

Population cycling is a widespread phenomenon, observed across a multitude of taxa in both laboratory and natural conditions. Historically, the theory associated with population cycles was tightly linked to pairwise consumer–resource interactions and studied via deterministic models, but current empirical and theoretical research reveals a much richer basis for ecological cycles. Stochasticity and seasonality can modulate or create cyclic behaviour in non-intuitive ways, the high-dimensionality in ecological systems can profoundly influence cycling, and so can demographic structure and eco-evolutionary dynamics. An inclusive theory for population cycles, ranging from ecosystem-level to demographic modelling, grounded in observational or experimental data, is therefore necessary to better understand observed cyclical patterns. In turn, by gaining better insight into the drivers of population cycles, we can begin to understand the causes of cycle gain and loss, how biodiversity interacts with population cycling, and how to effectively manage wildly fluctuating populations, all of which are growing domains of ecological research

PYY plays a key role in the resolution of diabetes following bariatric surgery in humans.

BACKGROUND: Bariatric surgery leads to early and long-lasting remission of type 2 diabetes (T2D). However, the mechanisms behind this phenomenon remain unclear. Among several factors, gut hormones are thought to be crucial mediators of this effect. Unlike GLP-1, the role of the hormone peptide tyrosine tyrosine (PYY) in bariatric surgery in humans has been limited to appetite regulation and its impact on pancreatic islet secretory function and glucose metabolism remains under-studied. METHODS: Changes in PYY concentrations were examined in obese patients after bariatric surgery and compared to healthy controls. Human pancreatic islet function was tested upon treatment with sera from patients before and after the surgery, in presence or absence of PYY. Alterations in intra-islet PYY release and insulin secretion were analysed after stimulation with short chain fatty acids (SCFAs), bile acids and the cytokine IL-22. FINDINGS: We demonstrate that PYY is a key effector of the early recovery of impaired glucose-mediated insulin and glucagon secretion in bariatric surgery. We establish that the short chain fatty acid propionate and bile acids, which are elevated after surgery, can trigger PYY release not only from enteroendocrine cells but also from human pancreatic islets. In addition, we identify IL-22 as a new factor which is modulated by bariatric surgery in humans and which directly regulates PYY expression and release. INTERPRETATION: This study shows that some major metabolic benefits of bariatric surgery can be emulated ex vivo. Our findings are expected to have a direct impact on the development of new non-surgical therapy for T2D correction

Health-related Quality of Life in Patients With Nonalcoholic Fatty Liver Disease: A Prospective Multi-center UK Study

Background & Aims: It is unclear whether health-related quality of life (HRQoL) is impaired in patients with nonalcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD) without advanced fibrosis and how this compares with the general population. We aimed to assess HRQoL in patients with NAFLD in comparison to the general population and any associations of fibrosis severity and metabolic comorbidities with impairments in HRQoL. Methods: We prospectively enrolled 513 consecutive patients with NAFLD who completed the EuroQol 5-dimensional questionnaire (EQ-5D) and Chronic Liver Disease Questionnaires (CLDQ). Demographic and clinical information, liver biopsy results, and/or liver stiffness (LS) by transient elastography were recorded. A general population sub-cohort of the Health Survey for England 2018 was used as a comparator (n = 5483), and a 1:1 propensity-score (PS) matching was performed, according to age, sex, body mass index, and type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM). Results: EQ-5D-5L utility was significantly lower in 466 PS-matched patients with NAFLD compared with PS-matched controls (0.77 ± 0.27 vs 0.84 ± 0.19; P < .001), even in those without advanced fibrosis (F ≤2 or LS <8kPa) (0.80 ± 0.24 vs 0.84 ± 0.19; P = .024). HRQoL measures (EQ-5D-5L, EQ-VAS, CLDQ) did not differ between patients with NAFLD with and without advanced fibrosis. LS was independently associated with lower EQ-5D-5L in all patients with NAFLD but not in those without advanced fibrosis. In the latter, lower EQ-5D-5L was associated with female sex, T2DM, and depression. Conclusions: Patients with NAFLD, even those without advanced fibrosis, have worse HRQoL compared with the general population. In patients with NAFLD without advanced fibrosis, HRQoL is independently associated with non-liver comorbidities but not LS. Multi-disciplinary management is therefore required in NAFLD, irrespective of fibrosis severity

Machine learning approaches to enhance diagnosis and staging of patients with MASLD using routinely available clinical information

Aims: Metabolic dysfunction Associated Steatotic Liver Disease (MASLD) outcomes such as MASH (metabolic dysfunction associated steatohepatitis), fibrosis and cirrhosis are ordinarily determined by resource-intensive and invasive biopsies. We aim to show that routine clinical tests offer sufficient information to predict these endpoints. Methods: Using the LITMUS Metacohort derived from the European NAFLD Registry, the largest MASLD dataset in Europe, we create three combinations of features which vary in degree of procurement including a 19-variable feature set that are attained through a routine clinical appointment or blood test. This data was used to train predictive models using supervised machine learning (ML) algorithm XGBoost, alongside missing imputation technique MICE and class balancing algorithm SMOTE. Shapley Additive exPlanations (SHAP) were added to determine relative importance for each clinical variable. Results: Analysing nine biopsy-derived MASLD outcomes of cohort size ranging between 5385 and 6673 subjects, we were able to predict individuals at training set AUCs ranging from 0.719-0.994, including classifying individuals who are At-Risk MASH at an AUC = 0.899. Using two further feature combinations of 26-variables and 35-variables, which included composite scores known to be good indicators for MASLD endpoints and advanced specialist tests, we found predictive performance did not sufficiently improve. We are also able to present local and global explanations for each ML model, offering clinicians interpretability without the expense of worsening predictive performance. Conclusions: This study developed a series of ML models of accuracy ranging from 71.9—99.4% using only easily extractable and readily available information in predicting MASLD outcomes which are usually determined through highly invasive means

Infection with the hepatitis C virus causes viral genotype-specific differences in cholesterol metabolism and hepatic steatosis

Lipids play essential roles in the hepatitis C virus (HCV) life cycle and patients with chronic HCV infection display disordered lipid metabolism which resolves following successful anti-viral therapy. It has been proposed that HCV genotype 3 (HCV-G3) infection is an independent risk factor for hepatocellular carcinoma and evidence suggests lipogenic proteins are involved in hepatocarcinogenesis. We aimed to characterise variation in host lipid metabolism between participants chronically infected with HCV genotype 1 (HCV-G1) and HCV-G3 to identify likely genotype-specific differences in lipid metabolism. We combined several lipidomic approaches: analysis was performed between participants infected with HCV-G1 and HCV-G3, both in the fasting and non-fasting states, and after sustained virological response (SVR) to treatment. Sera were obtained from 112 fasting patients (25% with cirrhosis). Serum lipids were measured using standard enzymatic methods. Lathosterol and desmosterol were measured by gas-chromatography mass spectrometry (MS). For further metabolic insight on lipid metabolism, ultra-performance liquid chromatography MS was performed on all samples. A subgroup of 13 participants had whole body fat distribution determined using in vivo magnetic resonance imaging and spectroscopy. A second cohort of (non-fasting) sera were obtained from HCV Research UK for comparative analyses: 150 treatment naïve patients and 100 non-viraemic patients post-SVR. HCV-G3 patients had significantly decreased serum apoB, non-HDL cholesterol concentrations, and more hepatic steatosis than those with HCV-G1. HCV-G3 patients also had significantly decreased serum levels of lathosterol, without significant reductions in desmosterol. Lipidomic analysis showed lipid species associated with reverse cholesterol transport pathway in HCV-G3. We demonstrated that compared to HCV-G1, HCV-G3 infection is characterised by low LDL cholesterol levels, with preferential suppression of cholesterol synthesis via lathosterol, associated with increasing hepatic steatosis. The genotype-specific lipid disturbances may shed light on genotypic variations in liver disease progression and promotion of hepatocellular cancer in HCV-G3

Current considerations for clinical management and care of non-alcoholic fatty liver disease: Insights from the 1st International Workshop of the Canadian NASH Network (CanNASH).

Non-alcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD) affects approximately 8 million Canadians. NAFLD refers to a disease spectrum ranging from bland steatosis to non-alcoholic steatohepatitis (NASH). Nearly 25% of patients with NAFLD develop NASH, which can progress to liver cirrhosis and related end-stage complications. Type 2 diabetes and obesity represent the main risk factors for the disease. The Canadian NASH Network is a national collaborative organization of health care professionals and researchers with a primary interest in enhancing understanding, care, education, and research around NAFLD, with a vision of best practices for this disease state. At the 1st International Workshop of the CanNASH network in April 2021, a joint event with the single topic conference of the Canadian Association for the Study of the Liver (CASL), clinicians, epidemiologists, basic scientists, and community members came together to share their work under the theme of NASH. This symposium also marked the initiation of collaborations between Canadian and other key opinion leaders in the field representative of international liver associations. The main objective is to develop a policy framework that outlines specific targets, suggested activities, and evidence-based best practices to guide provincial, territorial, and federal organizations in developing multidisciplinary models of care and strategies to address this epidemic

Accuracy of FibroScan Controlled Attenuation Parameter and Liver Stiffness Measurement in Assessing Steatosis and Fibrosis in Patients With Non-alcoholic Fatty Liver Disease.

BACKGROUND & AIMS: We estimated the accuracy of FibroScan vibration-controlled transient elastography controlled attenuation parameter (CAP) and liver stiffness measurements (LSMs) in assessing steatosis and fibrosis in patients with suspected NAFLD. METHODS: We collected data from 450 consecutive adults who underwent liver biopsy analysis for suspected NAFLD at 7 centers in the United Kingdom from March 2014 through January 2017. FibroScan examinations with M or XL probe were completed within the 2 weeks of the biopsy analysis (404 had a valid examination). The biopsies were scored by 2 blinded expert pathologists according to non-alcoholic steatohepatitis clinical research network criteria. Diagnostic accuracy was estimated using the area under the receiver operating characteristic curves (AUROC) for the categories of steatosis and fibrosis. We assessed effects of disease prevalence on positive and negative predictive values. For LSMs, the effects of histological parameters and probe type were appraised using multivariable analysis. RESULTS: Using biopsy analysis as the reference standard, we found that CAP identified patients with steatosis with an AUROCs of 0.87 (95% CI, 0.82-0.92) for S≥S1, 0.77 (95% CI, 0.71-0.82) for S≥S2, and 0.70 (95% CI, 0.64-0.75) for S=S3. Youden cut-off values for S≥S1, S≥S2 and S≥S3 were 302 dB/m, 331 dB/m, and 337 dB/m respectively. LSM identified patients with fibrosis with AUROCs of 0.77 (95% CI, 0.72-0.82) for F≥F2, 0.80 (95% CI, 0.75-0.84) for F≥F3, and 0.89 (95% CI, 0.84-0.93) for F=F4. Youden cut-off values for F≥F2, F≥F3 and F=F4 were 8.2 kPa, 9.7 kPa, and 13.6 kPa respectively. Applying the optimal cut-off values, determined from this cohort, to populations of lower fibrosis prevalence increased negative predictive values and reduced positive predictive values. Multivariable analysis found that the only parameter that significantly affect LSMs was fibrosis stage (P<10-16); we found no association with steatosis or probe type. CONCLUSIONS: In a prospective analysis of patients with NAFLD, we found CAP and LSMs by FibroScan to assess liver steatosis and fibrosis, respectively, with AUROC values ranging from 0.7 to 0.89. Probe type and steatosis did not affect LSMs

Systemic iron reduction by venesection alters the gut microbiome in patients with haemochromatosis

Background & Aims: Iron reduction by venesection has been the cornerstone of treatment for haemochromatosis for decades, and its reported health benefits are many. Repeated phlebotomy can lead to a compensatory increase in intestinal iron absorption, reducing intestinal iron availability. Given that most gut bacteria are highly dependent on iron for survival, we postulated that, by reducing gut iron levels, venesection could alter the gut microbiota. Methods: Clinical parameters, faecal bacterial composition and metabolomes were assessed before and during treatment in a group of patients with haemochromatosis undergoing iron reduction therapy. Results: Systemic iron reduction was associated with an alteration of the gut microbiome, with changes evident in those who experienced reduced faecal iron availability with venesection. For example, levels of Faecalibacterium prausnitzii, a bacterium associated with improved colonic health, were increased in response to faecal iron reduction. Similarly, metabolomic changes were seen in association with reduced faecal iron levels. Conclusion: These findings highlight a significant shift in the gut microbiome of patients who experience reduced colonic iron during venesection. Targeted depletion of faecal iron could represent a novel therapy for metabolic and inflammatory diseases, meriting further investigation. Lay summary: Iron depletion by repeated venesection is the mainstay of treatment for haemochromatosis, an iron-overload disorder. Venesection has been associated with several health benefits, including improvements in liver function tests, reversal of liver scarring, and reduced risk of liver cancer. During iron depletion, iron absorption from the gastrointestinal (GI) tract increases to compensate for iron lost with treatment. Iron availability is limited in the GI tract and is crucial to the growth and function of many gut bacteria. In this study we show that reduced iron availability in the colon following venesection treatment leads to a change in the composition of the gut bacteria, a finding that, to date, has not been studied in patients with haemochromatosis

The European NAFLD Registry: A real-world longitudinal cohort study of nonalcoholic fatty liver disease.

Non-Alcoholic Fatty Liver Disease (NAFLD), a progressive liver disease that is closely associated with obesity, type 2 diabetes, hypertension and dyslipidaemia, represents an increasing global public health challenge. There is significant variability in the disease course: the majority exhibit only fat accumulation in the liver but a significant minority develop a necroinflammatory form of the disease (non-alcoholic steatohepatitis, NASH) that may progress to cirrhosis and hepatocellular carcinoma. At present our understanding of pathogenesis, disease natural history and long-term outcomes remain incomplete. There is a need for large, well characterised patient cohorts that may be used to address these knowledge gaps and to support the development of better biomarkers and novel therapies. The European NAFLD Registry is an international, prospectively recruited observational cohort study that aims to establish a large, highly-phenotyped patient cohort and linked bioresource. Here we describe the infrastructure, data management and monitoring plans, and the standard operating procedures implemented to ensure the timely and systematic collection of high-quality data and samples. Already recruiting subjects at secondary/tertiary care centres across Europe, the Registry is supporting the European Union IMI2-funded LITMUS 'Liver Investigation: Testing Marker Utility in Steatohepatitis' consortium, which is a major international effort to robustly validate biomarkers that diagnose, risk stratify and/or monitor NAFLD progression and liver fibrosis stage. The European NAFLD Registry has the demonstrable capacity to support research and biomarker development at scale and pace

Biomarkers for staging fibrosis and non-alcoholic steatohepatitis in non-alcoholic fatty liver disease (the LITMUS project): a comparative diagnostic accuracy study.

BACKGROUND The reference standard for detecting non-alcoholic steatohepatitis (NASH) and staging fibrosis-liver biopsy-is invasive and resource intensive. Non-invasive biomarkers are urgently needed, but few studies have compared these biomarkers in a single cohort. As part of the Liver Investigation: Testing Marker Utility in Steatohepatitis (LITMUS) project, we aimed to evaluate the diagnostic accuracy of 17 biomarkers and multimarker scores in detecting NASH and clinically significant fibrosis in patients with non-alcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD) and identify their optimal cutoffs as screening tests in clinical trial recruitment. METHODS This was a comparative diagnostic accuracy study in people with biopsy-confirmed NAFLD from 13 countries across Europe, recruited between Jan 6, 2010, and Dec 29, 2017, from the LITMUS metacohort of the prospective European NAFLD Registry. Adults (aged ≥18 years) with paired liver biopsy and serum samples were eligible; those with excessive alcohol consumption or evidence of other chronic liver diseases were excluded. The diagnostic accuracy of the biomarkers was expressed as the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) with liver histology as the reference standard and compared with the Fibrosis-4 index for liver fibrosis (FIB-4) in the same subgroup. Target conditions were the presence of NASH with clinically significant fibrosis (ie, at-risk NASH; NAFLD Activity Score ≥4 and F≥2) or the presence of advanced fibrosis (F≥3), analysed in all participants with complete data. We identified thres holds for each biomarker for reducing the number of biopsy-based screen failures when recruiting people with both NASH and clinically significant fibrosis for future trials. FINDINGS Of 1430 participants with NAFLD in the LITMUS metacohort with serum samples, 966 (403 women and 563 men) were included after all exclusion criteria had been applied. 335 (35%) of 966 participants had biopsy-confirmed NASH and clinically significant fibrosis and 271 (28%) had advanced fibrosis. For people with NASH and clinically significant fibrosis, no single biomarker or multimarker score significantly reached the predefined AUC 0·80 acceptability threshold (AUCs ranging from 0·61 [95% CI 0·54-0·67] for FibroScan controlled attenuation parameter to 0·81 [0·75-0·86] for SomaSignal), with accuracy mostly similar to FIB-4. Regarding detection of advanced fibrosis, SomaSignal (AUC 0·90 [95% CI 0·86-0·94]), ADAPT (0·85 [0·81-0·89]), and FibroScan liver stiffness measurement (0·83 [0·80-0·86]) reached acceptable accuracy. With 11 of 17 markers, histological screen failure rates could be reduced to 33% in trials if only people who were marker positive had a biopsy for evaluating eligibility. The best screening performance for NASH and clinically significant fibrosis was observed for SomaSignal (number needed to test [NNT] to find one true positive was four [95% CI 4-5]), then ADAPT (six [5-7]), MACK-3 (seven [6-8]), and PRO-C3 (nine [7-11]). INTERPRETATION None of the single markers or multimarker scores achieved the predefined acceptable AUC for replacing biopsy in detecting people with both NASH and clinically significant fibrosis. However, several biomarkers could be applied in a prescreening strategy in clinical trial recruitment. The performance of promising markers will be further evaluated in the ongoing prospective LITMUS study cohort. FUNDING The Innovative Medicines Initiative 2 Joint Undertaking