The use of historical collections to estimate population trends: a case study using Swedish longhorn beetles (Coleoptera: Cerambycidae)

Long term data to estimate population trends among species are generally lacking. However, Natural History Collections (NHCs) can provide such information, but may suffer from biases due to varying sampling effort. To analyze population trends and range-abundance dynamics of Swedish longhorn beetles (Coleoptera: Cerambycidae), we used collections of 108 species stretching over 100 years. We controlled for varying sampling effort by using the total number of database records as a reference for non-red-listed species. Because the general frequency of red-listed species increased over time, a separate estimate of sampling effort was used for that group. We observed large interspecific variation in population changes, from declines of 60\% to several hundred percent increases. Most species showed stable or increasing ranges, whereas few seemed to decline in range. Among increasing species, rare species seemed to expand their range more than common species did, but this pattern was not observed in declining species. Historically, rare species did not seem to be at larger risk of local extinction, and population declines were mostly due to lower population density and not loss of sub-populations. We also evaluated the species' declines under IUCN red-list criterion A, and four currently not red-listed species meet the suggested threshold for Near Threatened (NT). The results also suggested that species' declines may be overlooked if estimated only from changes in species range

Habitat-Specific Population Growth of a Farmland Bird

BACKGROUND: To assess population persistence of species living in heterogeneous landscapes, the effects of habitat on reproduction and survival have to be investigated. METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: We used a matrix population model to estimate habitat-specific population growth rates for a population of northern wheatears Oenanthe oenanthe breeding in farmland consisting of a mosaic of distinct habitat (land use) types. Based on extensive long-term data on reproduction and survival, habitats characterised by tall field layers (spring- and autumn-sown crop fields, ungrazed grasslands) displayed negative stochastic population growth rates (log lambda(s): -0.332, -0.429, -0.168, respectively), that were markedly lower than growth rates of habitats characterised by permanently short field layers (pastures grazed by cattle or horses, and farmyards, log lambda(s): -0.056, +0.081, -0.059). Although habitats differed with respect to reproductive performance, differences in habitat-specific population growth were largely due to differences in adult and first-year survival rates, as shown by a life table response experiment (LTRE). CONCLUSIONS/SIGNIFICANCE: Our results show that estimation of survival rates is important for realistic assessments of habitat quality. Results also indicate that grazed grasslands and farmyards may act as source habitats, whereas crop fields and ungrazed grasslands with tall field layers may act as sink habitats. We suggest that the strong decline of northern wheatears in Swedish farmland may be linked to the corresponding observed loss of high quality breeding habitat, i.e. grazed semi-natural grasslands

Can Life History Predict the Effect of Demographic Stochasticity on Extinction Risk?

Demographic stochasticity is important in determining extinction risks of small populations, but it is largely unknown how its effect depends on the life histories of species. We modeled effects of demographic stochasticity on extinction risk in a broad range of generalized life histories, using matrix models and branching processes. Extinction risks of life histories varied greatly in their sensitivity to demographic stochasticity. Comparing life histories, extinction risk generally increased with increasing fecundity and decreased with higher ages of maturation. Effects of adult survival depended on age of maturation. At lower ages of maturation, extinction risk peaked at intermediate levels of adult survival, but it increased along with adult survival at higher ages of maturation. These differences were largely explained by differences in sensitivities of population growth to perturbations of life history traits. Juvenile survival rate contributed most to total demographic variance in the majority of life histories. Our general results confirmed earlier findings, suggesting that empirical patterns can be explained by a relatively simple model. Thus, basic life history information can be used to assign life history-specific sensitivity to demographic stochasticity. This is of great value when assessing the vulnerability of small populations

Empirical and theoretical studies of population trends and extinction risks

Empirical and theoretical approaches are needed to solve the current problem of increased extinction risk for many species. Thus, this thesis focuses on: (1) ways to estimate population trends for a large number of species, and (2) a predictive framework for identifying vulnerable populations from species traits or life history traits to allow for more proactive conservation actions. I estimated long-term population trends and range-abundance dynamics of longhorn beetles using Natural History Collections. In general, negative population trends were not accompanied by declines in range, but range increased among species with increasing populations. The analysis also exemplified how the results can be used in the red listing process. Linking life history traits and two metrics of extinction risk (population trend and red list classification) in long horn beetles showed that generation time, overwintering stage, larval host plant specialisation, adult activity period and body size were related to extinction risk, often with interaction effects between predictor variables. Variability in population size is an important factor affecting population extinction risk. I modelled the effects of demographic and environmental stochasticity on extinction risk in small populations, for a large range of life history types. Extinction risk due to demographic stochasticity increased with increasing fecundity and decreasing age of maturation, whereas effects of adult survival interacted with maturation age. Including environmental stochasticity showed that the qualitative relationship between extinction risk and life history types changed, but also that combined effects of both stochasticities on extinction risk were most significant in short-lived life histories. The results suggest that data from Natural History Collections can be used to estimate long-term population trends, and that population declines may be underestimated if estimated from changes in range. My studies also suggest that life history traits and species traits can be used to predict population vulnerability to extinction and, hence, that certain groups of species are more vulnerable to extinction than others

The many forms of beta diversity: a comment on McGill et al. and some notational suggestions

Fundamentally, beta diversity is a measure of species turnover across time or space. In practice, it is sometimes unclear exactly what aspect of beta diversity that is implied in studies. For instance, a trend in ’spatial beta diversity’ can be used to refer to both differences in spatial beta diversity between sites, as well as a temporal trend in spatial beta diversity (at the same site). In a recent review, McGill et al. [1] provide a useful and much needed overview of different aspects of biodiversity change, and show areas where we lack knowledge. Even so, McGill et al. ignore some aspects of beta diversity and sometimes pool different types of beta diversity under the same heading. However, their review mainly focused on temporal trends in diversity, while I here want to highlight spatial patterns in temporal β -diversity (species turnover) as an important but somewhat overlooked component of biodiversity change. Furthermore, I propose a slightly modified classification and nomenclature of metrics of biodiversity change, with the aim of complementing their review. The notation used here can hopefully be useful to other authors as well

Data from: Species’ traits explain differences in Red list status and long-term population trends in longhorn beetles

Some species are more likely to go extinct than others and this is partially due to species' traits. Therefore, it is important to establish links between traits and extinction risks. Different aspects of a species' biology also relates to different sources of threat, such as fragmented populations or low population growth rate. In a comparative study of Swedish longhorn beetles (Coleoptera: Cerambycidae), we related species' traits to two aspects of extinction risk – population decline and small/fragmented populations – measured by long-term population trends and IUCN Red list classifications. Trait relationships were analysed with generalized linear models and multi-model inference. We found that extinction risk generally increased with longer generation times, corresponding to slower life histories. Adult activity period was also related to both metrics of extinction risk, but in different ways. We also found that extinction risk increased with larval host plant specialization, but only for Red list classification. Large body size was related to increased Red list classification in species overwintering as adults, and overwintering stage also structured the effects of several other traits. Our results show that both intrinsic demographic traits and ecological traits affect extinction risks, and also suggest that risks are shaped by multiple mechanisms. Therefore, researchers should carefully choose their metric of extinction risk for comparative studies, as the Red list classification may best capture current risk, whereas population trends can be used more proactively but may reflect historical relationships between traits and extinction risk

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Species' traits, trend and red list data for longhorn beetles, Sweden

Data set of species' traits for longhorn beetles living in Sweden along with estimates of long-term population trends covering 1920 to 2000 and regional 2010 IUCN red list classifications. The data has been used to study the relationship between species' traits and two aspects of extinction risk (long-term trends and red list classification). The information of species traits are compiled from published sources, and mainly describe information relevant for cerambycid species in Nordic conditions. For further information see the attached metafile