The Impacts of Biofuel Expansion on the Resilience of Social-Ecological Systems in Ethiopia

Abstract This thesis investigates biofuel expansion as a disturbance to the resilience of social-ecological systems. Examining this issue through a resilience framework illustrates the dynamics of such systems, identifying potential trade-offs and regime shifts. Additionally, this research highlights the differentiated impacts for actors across multiple scales, allowing power relations to be taken into account – the lack of which is a common criticism of resilience studies. The thesis presents a systems analysis of sugarcane-ethanol expansion in Ethiopia at the current and planned levels of production, incorporating both the production and consumption sub-systems. To create an integrated systems analysis multiple methods were utilised between 2010 and 2012 to collect primary data – household surveys and interviews in multiple localities and interviews with key stakeholders, supplemented with documentary evidence. The production sub-system analysis incorporates food system impacts at the household scale and ecological impacts at the regional scale, whilst the consumption sub-system analysis investigates the impacts of ethanol adoption as a household fuel. The findings of these analyses are then synthesised in a resilience assessment at the national scale. The results show that current levels of sugarcane and ethanol production have not surpassed the majority of potential critical thresholds that would induce regime shifts. Therefore, most of the sub-systems under study, and actors within them, are resilient to the perturbation of biofuel expansion to date. However, a detrimental regime shift is underway for pastoralists being relocated for sugarcane expansion. The planned expansion will replicate this regime shift across a much larger population. In addition, the larger scale of operation will more severely influence the ecological sub-system. The analysis of multiple nested scales using a resilience model demonstrates the need to examine all scales to highlight the winners and losers, as only examining one scale conceals the dynamic nature of interactions

Resilience characteristics of the urban agriculture system in Lansing, Michigan: Importance of support actors in local food systems

Urban agriculture is a growing movement in cities across the United States, including the post-industrial Midwest. Maintaining a resilient local food system is a challenge given the environmental, resource, and institutional barriers facing urban farmers. In this descriptive correlational study, we take an in-depth look at the demographics, farm characteristics, motivations, barriers, and resilience indicators of individuals in the urban agriculture system in Lansing, Michigan, a city of the US Midwest with a growing urban agriculture system. Survey responses (n = 92) revealed that support actors, community gardeners, and farmers have descriptive differences in their motivations, with support actors (e.g. non-profits, university extension, or municipalities) being most strongly motivated by social and environmental justice. Community gardeners reported the lowest barriers to engaging in urban agriculture. Individuals who reported stronger motivations for building community and social and environmental justice showed significant correlations to several resilience indicators, indicating that those motivations may be important to system resilience. Urban agriculture support agencies report high barriers and are most often consulted for informational and social support. These results can inform recommendations for organizations, local governments, and researchers working in midwestern urban agriculture initiatives to better assess and promote a thriving system into the futur

Studying the complexity of change: toward an analytical framework for understanding deliberate social-ecological transformations

Faced with numerous seemingly intractable social and environmental challenges, many scholars and practitioners are increasingly interested in understanding how to actively engage and transform the existing systems holding such problems in place. Although a variety of analytical models have emerged in recent years, most emphasize either the social or ecological elements of such transformations rather than their coupled nature. To address this, first we have presented a definition of the core elements of a social-ecological system (SES) that could potentially be altered in a transformation. Second, we drew on insights about transformation from three branches of literature focused on radical change, i.e., social movements, socio-technical transitions, and social innovation, and gave consideration to the similarities and differences with the current studies by resilience scholars. Drawing on these findings, we have proposed a framework that outlines the process and phases of transformative change in an SES. Future research will be able to utilize the framework as a tool for analyzing the alteration of social-ecological feedbacks, identifying critical barriers and leverage points and assessing the outcome of social-ecological transformations

Panarchy theory for convergence

Coping with surprise and uncertainty resulting from the emergence of undesired and unexpected novelty or the sudden reorganization of systems at multiple spatiotemporal scales requires both a scientific process that can incorporate diverse expertise and viewpoints, and a scientific framework that can account for the structure and dynamics of interacting social-ecological systems (SES) and the inherent uncertainty of what might emerge in the future. We argue that combining a convergence scientific process with a panarchy framework provides a pathway for improving our understanding of, and response to, emergence. Emergent phenomena are often unexpected (e.g., pandemics, regime shifts) and can be highly disruptive, so can pose a significant challenge to the development of sustainable and resilient SES. Convergence science is a new approach promoted by the U.S. National Science Foundation for tackling complex problems confronting humanity through the integration of multiple perspectives, expertise, methods, tools, and analytical approaches. Panarchy theory is a framework useful for studying emergence, because it characterizes complex systems of people and nature as dynamically organized and structured within and across scales of space and time. It accounts for the fundamental tenets of complex systems and explicitly grapples with emergence, including the emergence of novelty, and the emergent property of social-ecological resilience. We provide an overview of panarchy, convergence science, and emergence. We discuss the significant data and methodological challenges of using panarchy in a convergence approach to address emergent phenomena, as well as state-of-the-art methods for overcoming them. We present two examples that would benefit from such an approach: climate change and its impacts on social-ecological systems, and the relationships between infectious disease and social-ecological systems

Resilience of Agricultural Value Chains in Developing Country Contexts: A Framework and Assessment Approach

Although agricultural value chain resilience is a crucial component to food security and sustainable food systems in developing countries, it has received little attention. This paper synthesizes knowledge from the social-ecological systems (SES), supply chain management, and value chain development literature to make three contributions to this research gap. First, we conceptualize agricultural value chain resilience and relate it to overall food system resilience. Second, we identify seven principles that are hypothesized to contribute to SES resilience, relate them to supply chain management theory, and discuss their application in agricultural value chains. A key insight is that the appropriateness of these principles are important to assess on a case-by-case basis, and depend in part on trade-offs between resilience and other dimensions of value chain performance. Third, we integrate two common tools, the Resilience Alliance’s assessment framework and value chain analysis techniques, to outline an adaptable participatory approach for assessing the resilience of agricultural value chains in developing countries. The objectives of the approach are to cultivate a chain-wide awareness for past and potential disturbances that could affect food security and other essential services provided by the value chain, and to identify upgrades that can build resilience against these key disturbances

Blurring the boundaries: cross-scale analyses of food systems

The globalized and interconnected nature of food systems provides many examples of panarchies within social-ecological systems. However, few are analyzed using panarchy theory, particularly urban food systems, or in a comparative manner. We aimed to broaden the examination of cross-scale dynamics of food systems by applying panarchy theory through comparative study of three urban food systems: Flint, Michigan, Cleveland, Ohio, and Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania. These are all post-industrial Rust Belt cities that have experienced similar economic downturns but have responded in different ways, which has created significantly different food system outcomes. We present an approach for applying panarchy theory in food systems, and identifying indicators of potential and connectedness at multiple scales with sources for such data. We analyzed available data and demonstrate how the economic history of these cities has influenced their food system outcomes today. Economic recovery at the city scale in Pittsburgh/Allegheny County was reflected in reorganization in the food system, while the lack of economic recovery in Flint/Genesee County and the uneven access to economic recovery in Cleveland/Cuyahoga County potentially placed the cities and their food systems in lock-in traps. We also reflect on the limitations of publicly available data at the city scale for the food system and over time. Overlooking such gaps may blur boundaries within a panarchy analysis and lead to assumptions about cities based on county data which might not be accurate or may hide critical variables such as race or geographic size. We caution researchers to be clear about scale in panarchy analyses and to acknowledge the limitations of current data sets and thus the importance of mixed methods primary data collection. The incorporation of place and historical context into panarchy analyses can lend valuable explanatory power to our understanding of cross-scale dynamics in food systems

Incorporating equity into sustainability assessments of biofuels

This paper summarises the evidence regarding the impact of biofuels on equity, before going on to examine the equity dimensions of the most commonly used, formal methods of biofuel sustainability assessments — the EU's voluntary certification schemes. Although there has been an increased focus on the ethical dimensions of biofuels in the academic literature, equity does not yet feature in a robust way in these forms of sustainability appraisal and therefore the extent to which poverty or social inequalities are reduced or exacerbated for those affected remain unknown. It is suggested that the inclusion of multiple voices and perspectives within sustainability assessments are likely to help fill this ‘equity void’ and deliver more sustainable and equitable outcomes for people affected

Resilience dynamics in a rapidly changing social-ecological system: Shifting inequalities in Ethiopia's Lower Omo Valley

Over the past 150 years there have been four major social-ecological regimes in the Lower Omo. Each regime shift has changed the structure and function of the system. Local communities utilized diverse forms of livelihood and broad social networks to adapt to new regimes and maintain distinctive cultural identities and effective sovereignty over their territories. ‌• Regime shifts have been initiated by ‘fast’ decisions by external actors rather than ‘slow’ internal dynamics. The resulting increase in connectivity has decreased access to resources by local communities or led to the extraction of resources from the region. A declining resource base has meant such ‘fast’ decisions are more difficult for traditional livelihoods and social networks to cope with. ‌• The most recent regime shift, associated with the introduction of mega-projects such as the Gibe III dam, has led to a landscape-scale transformation. Primary functions in the system are shifting with the elimination of flood-retreat agriculture, from agro-pastoralism and the production of subsistence crops to the production of energy and commodity crops. The transformation has compromised the resilience of communities downstream of the dam, who are at the limits of their adaptive capacity. ‌• While none of the regimes the Lower Omo has experienced has been free of inequalities, the current regime is characterized by new and pernicious forms of inequality and communities are increasingly dependent on external actors as they ‘max out’ the coping strategies from diverse livelihoods and social networks that have served them historically and rely on food aid. ‌• To ameliorate community resilience and avoid a total collapse of the current social-ecological system, agro-pastoralist communities must be supported in adapting their livelihoods to cope with changing environmental conditions or migrating to other areas that can support agro-pastoralism. Neither of these options is straightforward or without risks

Managing adaptively for multifunctionality in agricultural systems

Présentation du 22/08/2017:Frontiers of resilience in agricultural landscapesContributed session-Multi-level governance and biosphere stewardshipThe critical importance of agricultural systems for food security and as a dominant global landcover requires management that considers the full dimensions of system functions at appropriate scales, i.e. multifunctionality. We propose that adaptive management is the most suitable management approach for such goals, given its ability to reduce uncertainty over time and support multiple objectives within a system, for multiple actors. As such, adaptive management may be the most appropriate method for sustainably intensifying production whilst increasing the quantity and quality of ecosystem services. However, the current assessment of performance of agricultural systems doesn’t reward ecosystem service provision. Therefore, we present an overview of the ecosystem functions agricultural systems should and could provide, coupled with a revised definition for assessing the performance of agricultural systems from a multifunctional perspective that, when all satisfied, would create adaptive agricultural systems that can increase production whilst ensuring food security and the quantity and quality of ecosystem services. The outcome of this high level of performance is the capacity to respond to multiple shocks without collapse, equity and triple bottom line sustainability. Through the assessment of case studies, we find that alternatives to industrialized agricultural systems incorporate more functional goals, but that there are mixed findings as to whether these goals translate into positive measurable outcomes. We suggest that an adaptive management perspective would support the implementation of a systematic analysis of the social, ecological and economic trade-offs occurring within such systems, particularly between ecosystem services and functions, in order to provide suitable and comparable assessments. We also identify indicators to monitor performance at multiple scales in agricultural systems which can be used within an adaptive management framework to increase resilience at multiple scales