Chromospheric Variability: Analysis of 36 years of Time Series from the National Solar Observatory/Sacramento Peak Ca II K-line Monitoring Program

Analysis of more than 36 years of time series of seven parameters measured in the NSO/AFRL/Sac Peak K-line monitoring program elucidates five elucidates five components of the variation: (1) the solar cycle (period approx. 11 years), (2) quasi-periodic variations (periods approx 100 days), (3) a broad band stochastic process (wide range of periods), (4) rotational modulation, and (5) random observational errors. Correlation and power spectrum analyses elucidate periodic and aperiodic variation of the chromospheric parameters. Time-frequency analysis illuminates periodic and quasi periodic signals, details of frequency modulation due to differential rotation, and in particular elucidates the rather complex harmonic structure (1) and (2) at time scales in the range approx 0.1 - 10 years. These results using only full-disk data further suggest that similar analyses will be useful at detecting and characterizing differential rotation in stars from stellar light-curves such as those being produced by NASA's Kepler observatory. Component (3) consists of variations over a range of timescales, in the manner of a 1/f random noise process. A timedependent Wilson-Bappu effect appears to be present in the solar cycle variations (1), but not in the stochastic process (3). Component (4) characterizes differential rotation of the active regions, and (5) is of course not characteristic of solar variability, but the fact that the observational errors are quite small greatly facilitates the analysis of the other components. The recent data suggest that the current cycle is starting late and may be relatively weak. The data analyzed in this paper can be found at the National Solar Observatory web site http://nsosp.nso.edu/cak_mon/, or by file transfer protocol at ftp://ftp.nso.edu/idl/cak.parameters

External Tank - The Structure Backbone

The External Tank forms the structural backbone of the Space Shuttle in the launch configuration. Because the tank flies to orbital velocity with the Space Shuttle Orbiter, minimization of weight is mandatory, to maximize payload performance. Choice of lightweight materials both for structure and thermal conditioning was necessary. The tank is large, and unique manufacturing facilities, tooling, handling, and transportation operations were required. Weld processes and tooling evolved with the design as it matured through several block changes, to reduce weight. Non Destructive Evaluation methods were used to assure integrity of welds and thermal protection system materials. The aluminum-lithium alloy was used near the end of the program and weld processes and weld repair techniques had to be refined. Development and implementation of friction stir welding was a substantial technology development incorporated during the Program. Automated thermal protection system application processes were developed for the majority of the tank surface. Material obsolescence was an issue throughout the 40 year program. The final configuration and tank weight enabled international space station assembly in a high inclination orbit allowing international cooperation with the Russian Federal Space Agency. Numerous process controls were implemented to assure product quality, and innovative proof testing was accomplished prior to delivery. Process controls were implemented to assure cleanliness in the production environment, to control contaminants, and to preclude corrosion. Each tank was accepted via rigorous inspections, including non-destructive evaluation techniques, proof testing, and all systems testing. In the post STS-107 era, the project focused on ascent debris risk reduction. This was accomplished via stringent process controls, post flight assessment using substantially improved imagery, and selective redesigns. These efforts were supported with a number of test programs to simulate combined environments. Processing improvements included development and use of low spray guns for foam application, additional human factors considerations for production, use of high fidelity mockups during hardware processing with video review, improved tank access, extensive use of non destructive evaluation, and producibility enhancements. Design improvements included redesigned bipod fittings, a bellows heater, a feedline camera active during ascent flight, removal of the protuberance airload ramps, redesigned ice frost ramps, and titanium brackets replaced aluminum brackets on the liquid oxygen feedline. Post flight assessment improved due to significant addition of imagery assets, greatly improving situational awareness. The debris risk was reduced by two orders of magnitude. During this time a major natural disaster was overcome when Katrina damaged the manufacturing facility. Numerous lessons from these efforts are documented within the paper

On the Feasibility of Monitoring Carbon Monoxide in the Lower Troposphere from a Constellation of Northern Hemisphere Geostationary Satellites: Global Scale Assimilation Experiments (Part II)

This paper describes the second phase of an Observing System Simulation Experiment (OSSE) that utilizes the synthetic measurements from a constellation of satellites measuring atmospheric composition from geostationary (GEO) Earth orbit presented in part I of the study. Our OSSE is focused on carbon monoxide observations over North America, East Asia and Europe where most of the anthropogenic sources are located. Here we assess the impact of a potential GEO constellation on constraining northern hemisphere (NH) carbon monoxide (CO) using data assimilation. We show how cloud cover affects the GEO constellation data density with the largest cloud cover (i.e., lowest data density) occurring during Asian summer. We compare the modeled state of the atmosphere (Control Run), before CO data assimilation, with the known 'true' state of the atmosphere (Nature Run) and show that our setup provides realistic atmospheric CO fields and emission budgets. Overall, the Control Run underestimates CO concentrations in the northern hemisphere, especially in areas close to CO sources. Assimilation experiments show that constraining CO close to the main anthropogenic sources significantly reduces errors in NH CO compared to the Control Run. We assess the changes in error reduction when only single satellite instruments are available as compared to the full constellation. We find large differences in how measurements for each continental scale observation system affect the hemispherical improvement in long-range transport patterns, especially due to seasonal cloud cover. A GEO constellation will provide the most efficient constraint on NH CO during winter when CO lifetime is longer and increments from data assimilation associated with source regions are advected further around the globe

Human papillomavirus–related oropharyngeal cancer: HPV and p16 status in the recurrent versus parent tumor

Background Although typically associated with a favorable prognosis, a minority of human papillomavirus (HPV)‐related (+) oropharyngeal cancers recur after chemoradiation. We postulated that a minor HPV‐negative tumor subfraction may be responsible for recurrences of HPV+ oropharyngeal cancer. Methods Paired untreated primary and recurrent tumor specimens were identified for 37 patients with oropharyngeal cancer who received definitive chemoradiotherapy at our institution. Concordance in HPV/p16 expression between primary and recurrent tumors was assessed. Results Among 31 patients with HPV+/p16+ primary tumors, 30 (97%) retained evidence of both HPV and p16 expression at recurrence (27 HPV+/p16+; 3 HPV+/p16‐partial). One (3%) initially HPV+/p16+ patient developed an HPV‐negative/p16‐negative lung squamous cell carcinoma (SCC), representing either a discordant oropharyngeal cancer metastasis or second primary tumor. Conclusion HPV‐related oropharyngeal cancers retain HPV+/p16+ expression at recurrence. Our results fail to provide evidence that a minor HPV‐negative tumor subfraction is responsible for biologically aggressive behavior of HPV+ oropharyngeal cancer that recurs after chemoradiation. © 2014 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Head Neck 37 : 8–11, 2015Peer Reviewedhttp://deepblue.lib.umich.edu/bitstream/2027.42/109811/1/hed23548.pd

Chemotherapy alone for organ preservation in advanced laryngeal cancer

Background. For patients with advanced laryngeal cancer, a trial was designed to determine if chemotherapy alone, in patients achieving a complete histologic complete response after a single neoadjuvant cycle, was an effective treatment with less morbidity than concurrent chemoradiotherapy. Methods. Thirty-two patients with advanced laryngeal or hypopharyngeal cancer received 1 cycle of induction chemotherapy, and subsequent treatment was decided based on response. Results. A histologic complete response was achieved in 4 patients and were treated with chemotherapy alone. All 4 patients' cancer relapsed in the neck and required surgery and postoperative radiotherapy (RT). Twenty-five patients were treated with concomitant chemoradiation. Three patients were treated with surgery. Overall survival and disease-specific survival at 3 years were 68% and 78%, respectively. Conclusion. Chemotherapy alone is not feasible for long-term control of regional disease in patients with advanced laryngeal cancer even when they achieve a histologic complete response at the primary site. © 2009 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Head Neck, 2010Peer Reviewedhttp://deepblue.lib.umich.edu/bitstream/2027.42/77508/1/21285_ftp.pd

Matted nodes: Poor prognostic marker in oropharyngeal squamous cell carcinoma independent of HPV and EGFR status

Background Despite better prognosis, there is a group of oropharyngeal squamous cell carcinoma (SCC) human papillomavirus (HPV)+ patients who experience treatment failure and succumb to distant metastasis. Methods Seventy‐eight previously untreated patients nested in a concurrent chemoradiation protocol were reviewed to correlate patterns of local‐regional tumor extent to distant metastasis. Biomarker assessment was: HPV in situ hybridization and epidermal growth factor receptor (EGFR) immunointensity. Results The 3‐year disease‐specific survival (DSS) for patients presenting with and without matted nodes was 69% and 94%, respectively ( p = .003). Matted nodes were a poor prognostic factor independent of T classification, HPV, EGFR, and smoking status. For patients who were HPV+, 7 of 11 died of distant metastasis and 6 of 7 with distant metastasis had matted nodes. Conclusion Matted nodes are a novel marker of poor prognosis in oropharyngeal SCC independent of established prognostic factors. Matted nodes may identify patients at risk for the development of distant metastasis who could benefit from systemic therapy, whereas patients without matted nodes may be candidates for de‐escalation of therapy. © 2012 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Head Neck , 2012Peer Reviewedhttp://deepblue.lib.umich.edu/bitstream/2027.42/94456/1/21997_ftp.pd

Defining Pathways towards African Ecological Futures

Africa has experienced unprecedented growth across a range of development indices for decades. However, this growth is often at the expense of Africa’s biodiversity and ecosystems, jeopardizing the livelihoods of millions of people depending on the goods and services provided by nature, with broader consequences for achieving the United Nations Sustainable Development Goals. Encouragingly, Africa can still take a more sustainable path. Here, we synthesize the key learnings from the African Ecological Futures project. We report results from a participatory scenario planning process around four collectively-owned scenarios and narratives for the evolution of Africa’s ecological resource base over the next 50 years. These scenarios provided a lens to review pressures on the natural environment, through the drivers, pressures, state, impacts, and responses (DPSIR) framework. Based on the outcomes from each of these steps, we discuss opportunities to reorient Africa’s development trajectories towards a sustainable path. These opportunities fall under the broad categories of “effective natural resource governance”, “strategic planning capabilities”, “investment safeguards and frameworks”, and “new partnership models”. Underpinning all these opportunities are “data, management information, and decision support frameworks”. This work can help inform collaborative action by a broad set of actors with an interest in ensuring a sustainable ecological future for Africa.</jats:p

Prevalence and predictive role of p16 and epidermal growth factor receptor in surgically treated oropharyngeal and oral cavity cancer

Background The purpose of this study was to describe the relationship of p16 and epidermal growth factor receptor (EGFR) expression with survival in surgically treated patients who had oropharyngeal or oral cavity squamous cell carcinoma (SCC). Methods Tissue from 36 patients with oropharyngeal SCC and 49 patients with oral cavity SCC treated between 1997 and 2001 was imbedded and immunostained using a tissue microarray. Results The p16 was positive in 57% and 13% of patients with oropharyngeal SCC and oral cavity SCC, respectively. EGFR was positive in 60% and 63% of patients with oropharyngeal SCC and oral cavity SCC, respectively. In patients with oropharyngeal SCC, p16 expression was associated with improved disease‐specific survival (DSS), overall survival (OS), and time to recurrence (TTR) ( p < .01, < .01, and <.01, respectively). EGFR expression was associated with poorer DSS, OS, and TTR ( p < .01, = .01, and < .01, respectively). For oropharyngeal SCC, when examining both p16 and EGFR expression as combined biomarkers, high p16 expression coupled with low EGFR expression was associated with improved DSS ( p p16 = .01; p EGFR = .01). Patients with oral cavity SCC showed no association between biomarker and outcome. Conclusions For patients with oropharyngeal SCC, high p16 and low EGFR were associated with improved outcome, suggesting a predictive role in surgically treated patients. © 2012 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Head Neck, 2013Peer Reviewedhttp://deepblue.lib.umich.edu/bitstream/2027.42/99017/1/23087_ftp.pd