Census-linked study on ethnic fertility differentials in Lithuania

Fertility transformations observed since the early 1990s and their determinants have been rather thoroughly investigated in Lithuania. There are fairly numerous national and international studies devoted to this topic, mainly based on survey data. However, none of these studies looks into the effect of ethnicity on fertility. It is, to a large extent, caused by limitations of sample survey data. This study demonstrates potentials of census-linked fertility data to estimate robust and nationally representative parity-specific period fertility measures by ethnicity. The findings of this first systematic study of ethnicity-specific fertility differentials in Lithuania indicate that ethnicity does matter for fertility even in such ethnically homogenous country as Lithuania. Fertility among Lithuanians is higher than in the other ethnic groups, especially among Russians. Lower fertility in the Russian ethnic group is mainly explained by differences in the risk of having the second child. Importantly, this disadvantage remains significant even after controlling for selected compositional characteristics including urban-rural place of residence and education. The approach used in this study may be applied for Latvia and Estonia, where national minorities constitute substantial shares of the entire populations and significantly contribute to overall fertility levels

Estimates of mortality and population changes in England and Wales over the two World Wars

Almost one million soldiers from England and Wales died during the First and Second World War whilst serving in the British Armed Forces. Although many articles and books have been published that commemorate the military efforts of the British Armed Forces, data on the demographic aspects of British army losses remain fragmentary. Official population statistics on England and Wales have provided continuous series on the civilian population, including mortality and fertility over the two war periods. The combatant population and combatant mortality have not been incorporated in the official statistics, which shows large out-migration at the beginning and large in-migration towards the end of the war periods. In order to estimate the dynamics of the total population and its excess mortality, we introduce in this paper a model of population flows and mortality in times of war operations. The model can be applied to a detailed reconstruction of war losses, using various shapes of the input data. This enables us to arrive at detailed estimates of war-related losses in England and Wales during the two world wars. Our results agree with elements of data provided by prior studies.England, First World War, population estimates, Second World War, Wales

Changes in educational differentials in old-age mortality in Finland and Sweden between 1971-1975 and 1996-2000

The majority of the studies on developed countries confirm that socioeconomic mortality inequalities have been persisting or even widening. It has also been suggested that inequalities have been becoming increasingly important for old ages. The vast majority of the findings on mortality differentials rely on life table or aggregated mortality measures. However, conventional mean lifespan (life expectancy) hides important characteristics of the distribution of lifespan. Modal age at death and measures of disparity provide additional important insights on longevity, especially when focusing on mortality and survival at old ages. In this paper, using high quality census-linked data and both conventional life expectancy and distribution of life span measures, we systematically assess the direction and magnitude of changes in mortality differences at old ages in Sweden and Finland over the period 1971 to 2000. We found that educational gap in life expectancy at age 65 increased in both countries. Although the results suggest that life expectancy gap was largely explained by differential mortality due to cardiovascular system diseases, the role of other causes of death (especially cancers) has also increased. The educational gap in the modal age at death for Swedish males and Finnish females decreased, whereas it remained at the same level or slightly increased for Finnish males and Swedish females. Life span disparity was initially lower in low education groups, but eventually became higher than in high education group

Census-linked study on ethnic fertility differentials in Lithuania

Fertility transformations observed since the early 1990s and their determinants have been rather thoroughly investigated in Lithuania. There are fairly numerous national and international studies devoted to this topic, mainly based on survey data. However, none of these studies looks into the effect of ethnicity on fertility. It is, to a large extent, caused by limitations of sample survey data. This study demonstrates potentials of census-linked fertility data to estimate robust and nationally representative parity-specific period fertility measures by ethnicity. The findings of this first systematic study of ethnicity-specific fertility differentials in Lithuania indicate that ethnicity does matter for fertility even in such ethnically homogenous country as Lithuania. Fertility among Lithuanians is higher than in the other ethnic groups, especially among Russians. Lower fertility in the Russian ethnic group is mainly explained by differences in the risk of having the second child. Importantly, this disadvantage remains significant even after controlling for selected compositional characteristics including urban-rural place of residence and education. The approach used in this study may be applied for Latvia and Estonia, where national minorities constitute substantial shares of the entire populations and significantly contribute to overall fertility levels

10 years after Kannisto: further evidence for mortality decline at advanced ages in developed countries

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Gyventojų surašymo ir demografinės statistikos duomenų jungimas: metodologiniai principai ir tyrimų galimybės

Unfavorable general demographic indicators are to a large extent predetermined by a demographic situation in some population groups. Therefore, in order to achieve a more sustainable demographic development at the country level and develop an adequate response from relevant population policies, it is necessary to measure the scale of demographic differentiation and identify population groups at risk. This requires reliable population-level data and innovative methods for measuring demographic differentials. The main aim of this work is to present advantages and capabilities of methodology for development of census-linked databases based on the linkages between census and demographic records. This study provides selected empirical examples and new scientific data on socio-economic and socio-demographic differences in mortality, first divorces, and births in Lithuania. These data can be further used for improving population policies in Lithuania and performing comparative analyses with other countries.Nepalankius bendruosius Lietuvos demografinius rodiklius dažniausiai lemia itin bloga demografinė situacija kai kuriose gyventojų grupėse. Todėl siekiant tvaresnės demografinės raidos ir adekvataus gyventojų (demografinės) politikos atsako, būtina tiksliai įvertinti demografinės diferenciacijos mastus ir tiksliai identifikuoti padidintos rizikos gyventojų grupes. Tai reikalauja naujų visos populiacijos lygmeniu patikimų duomenų ir demografinių procesų diferenciacijos bei jos įtakos gyventojų raidai vertinimo metodų kūrimo. Šio straipsnio tikslas – pristatyti Lietuvos gyventojų mirtingumo, gimstamumo ir skyrybų civilinės būklės aktų įrašų (duomenų šaltinis – Gyventojų registras) ir surašymo duomenų sujungimo metodologinius pagrindus bei Lietuvos demografinių procesų diferenciacijos tyrimų empiriniais rezultatais iliustruoti šio inovacinio metodo taikymo privalumus. Tyrimas leido gauti naujus mokslo duomenis apie Lietuvoje stebimą nepalankių demografinės raidos požymių sąryšį su specifinių demografinių problemų koncentracija kai kuriose gyventojų grupėse

Demografiniai praradimai susiję su alkoholio vartojimu: Lietuvos Respublikos 2011 m. visuotinio gyventojų ir būstų surašymo ir mirtingumo duomenų jungimo tyrimas

This paper presents the results of a study on sociodemographic mortality differentials in Lithuania based on censuslinked mortality data. Population data come from the individual records of the 2011 Population and Housing Census of the Republic of Lithuania. The results of the research demonstrate that education and marital status are very strong predictors of alcohol-related mortality. Among males aged 30 and older, the alcohol-related mortality risk in non-married groups is up to 3.4 times as high as in the group of married males. The alcohol-related mortality risk in lower-education groups is up to 3.7 times as high as in the group of those with higher education. The findings of the study suggest that the elimination of educational differences would allow avoiding 55.7 %, the elimination of marital status differences – 40.2 %, the elimination of ethnic group differences – 11.1 % of alcohol-related deaths.Tyrimo tikslas – įvertinti sociodemografinius mirtingumo, susieto su alkoholio vartojimu, skirtumus ir apskaičiuoti su šiais skirtumais susijusius demografinius praradimus Lietuvoje. Tyrime naudojami sujungti Lietuvos Respublikos 2011 m. visuotinio gyventojų ir būstų surašymo ir Lietuvos Respublikos 2011–2013 m. mirties atvejų ir jų priežasčių valstybės registro duomenys. Tyrimo metu gauti rezultatai palyginti su ankstesnio tyrimo, atlikto naudojant Lietuvos Respublikos 2001 m. visuotinio gyventojų ir būstų surašymo duomenis, rezultatais. Naudojant demografinės analizės ir statistinius metodus, vertinami mirtingumo skirtumai pagal mirties priežastis, susijusias su alkoholio vartojimu. Analizėje išskirtos dvi mirties priežasčių grupės: apsinuodijimas alkoholiu ir su alkoholio vartojimu susijusios kepenų ligos. Vertinant su alkoholio vartojimu susijusius demografinius praradimus, apskaičiuoti Puasono regresijos mirtingumo rodiklių santykiai ir mirtingumo dėl alkoholio vartojimo veiksninės rizikos rodikliai. Remiantis šia metodika apskaičiuota, kiek mirčių būtų išvengta, jeigu visose sociodemografinėse gyventojų grupėse mirtingumas dėl mirties priežasčių, susijusių su alkoholio vartojimu, būtų lygus žemiausiais mirtingumo rodikliais pasižyminčios sociodemografinės gyventojų grupės mirtingumui. Nustatyta, kad mirtingumo rodiklių skirtumai, dėl su alkoholio vartojimų susijusių mirties priežasčių, skirtingose išsilavinimo grupėse siekia 3,7 karto, skirtingose santuokinės padėties grupėse – 3,4 karto. Apskaičiavus mirtingumo rodiklių skirtumus pagal tautybę, nustatyta, kad didžiausias mirtingumas dėl apsinuodijimo alkoholiu buvo lenkų tautybės vyrų grupėje. Veiksninės rizikos rodiklių analizė parodė, kad sumažinus mirtingumą dėl alkoholio vartojimo būtų galima išvengti 40,2 proc. mirčių dėl mirtingumo diferenciacijos santuokinės padėties grupėse, 11,1 proc. – tautybės grupėse, 55,7 proc. – išsilavinimo grupėse

Beyond the Kannisto-Thatcher Database on Old Age Mortality: an assessment of data quality at advanced ages

The old age population in developed countries has been increasing remarkably, yet internationally comparable high quality data on oldest-old mortality remain relatively scarce. The Kannisto-Thatcher Old Age Mortality Database (KTD) is a unique source providing uniformly recalculated old-age mortality data for 35 countries. Our study addresses a number of data quality issues relevant to population and death statistics at the most advanced ages. Following previous studies by Väinö Kannisto, we apply the same set of measures. This allows us to identify dubious or irregular mortality patterns. Deviations such as this often suggest that the data quality has serious problems. We update previously published findings by extending the analyses made so far to thirty five countries and by adding data on longer historical periods. In addition, we propose a systematic classification of country- and period-specific data, thus simultaneously accounting for each indicator of data quality. We apply conventional procedures of hierarchical cluster analysis to distinguish four data quality clusters (best data quality, acceptable data quality, conditionally acceptable quality, and weak quality). We show that the reliability of old-age mortality estimates has been improving in time. However, the mortality indicators for the most advanced ages of a number of countries, such as Chile, Canada, and the USA should be treated with caution even for the most recent decade. Canada, Ireland, Finland, Lithuania, New Zealand (Non-Maori), Norway, Portugal, Spain, and the USA have particular problems in their historical data series. After having compared the KTD with official data, we conclude that the methods used for extinct and almost extinct generations produce more accurate population estimates than those published by national statistical offices. The most reliable official data come from the countries with fully functioning population registers.World, data evaluation, mortality, old age

Is East-West Life Expectancy Gap Narrowing in the Enlarged European Union?

The fall of the Berlin Wall in 1990 and EU enlargement in 2004 are two major political events in the recent history of the Central and Eastern European region. By systematically comparing the changes and differences in life expectancy at birth between the seven new member countries from Central and Eastern Europe and more advanced countries of the EU-15, this article attempts to identify the vanguards and laggards in the health convergence process before and after the 2004 EU enlargement. The results of decomposition analysis highlight the changing patterns of age- and cause-specific contributions to the differences in life expectancy. Finally, we focus on the variations in the progress in reducing the burden of cardiovascular diseases and external causes of death, which were known to be responsible for the long-term mortality crisis during the period of communist rule. Our findings suggest that the collapse of the communist regimes led to immediate positive changes in the Central European countries. At the same time, health disadvantages persisted and even worsened in the Baltic countries. Later on, joining the EU in 2004 was not accompanied by immediate systematic convergence of life expectancy. However, very rapid progress in the initially worst performing Baltic countries after 2007 and especially during the 2010s, may suggest a delayed positive impact of EU enlargement leading to decreasing longevity disadvantage. The convergence process after 2004 was generally slower in the initially better-performing four Central European countries. Despite these country-specific variations, Czechia, Poland, and, especially, Estonia remain clear health vanguards in the region. Further progress requires much more systematic efforts to combat cardiovascular diseases and the persisting burden of excess male mortality at adult working ages. * This article belongs to a special issue on “Demographic Developments in Eastern and Western Europe Before and After the Transformation of Socialist Countries”

Impact of alcohol on mortality in Eastern Europe: Trends and policy responses.

Within the global context, Eastern Europe has been repeatedly identified as the area with the highest levels of alcohol-related health harms. Although the Berlin Wall fell in 1989, and the Soviet Union collapsed soon afterwards, alcohol-related mortality in Eastern Europe remains far higher than in Western Europe. However, despite the high burden of alcohol harm and mortality in Eastern Europe, with the partial exception of Russia, relatively little is known about the country-specific impact of alcohol on health and mortality and the various policy responses to it. In response to this, an international symposium was held in Vilnius, Lithuania in June 2017 entitled Persisting burden of alcohol in Central and Eastern Europe: recent evidence and measurement issues. This special section of Drug and Alcohol Review is based on a selection of the papers presented at this symposium, providing for the first time a broad overview of the problem of alcohol-related mortality in a diverse range of Eastern European countries linked to a description and analysis of alcohol control initiatives that have been developed. While there is strong evidence of the influence of history, culture and education across European countries having a profound and persistent effect on differences in drinking patterns and preferences, there is, nevertheless, evidence that effective policy responses have been mounted in a range of countries