The impact of the demographic transition on dengue in Thailand: Insights from a statistical analysis and mathematical modeling

Background: An increase in the average age of dengue hemorrhagic fever (DHF) cases has been reported in Thailand. The cause of this increase is not known. Possible explanations include a reduction in transmission due to declining mosquito populations, declining contact between human and mosquito, and changes in reporting. We propose that a demographic shift toward lower birth and death rates has reduced dengue transmission and lengthened the interval between large epidemics. Methods and Findings: Using data from each of the 72 provinces of Thailand, we looked for associations between force of infection (a measure of hazard, defined as the rate per capita at which susceptible individuals become infected) and demographic and climactic variables. We estimated the force of infection from the age distribution of cases from 1985 to 2005. We find that the force of infection has declined by 2% each year since a peak in the late 1970s and early 1980s. Contrary to recent findings suggesting that the incidence of DHF has increased in Thailand, we find a small but statistically significant decline in DHF incidence since 1985 in a majority of provinces. The strongest predictor of the change in force of infection and the mean force of infection is the median age of the population. Using mathematical simulations of dengue transmission we show that a reduced birth rate and a shift in the population's age structure can explain the shift in the age distribution of cases, reduction of the force of infection, and increase in the periodicity of multiannual oscillations of DHF incidence in the absence of other changes. Conclusions: Lower birth and death rates decrease the flow of susceptible individuals into the population and increase the longevity of immune individuals. The increase in the proportion of the population that is immune increases the likelihood that an infectious mosquito will feed on an immune individual, reducing the force of infection. Though the force of infection has decreased by half, we find that the critical vaccination fraction has not changed significantly, declining from an average of 85% to 80%. Clinical guidelines should consider the impact of continued increases in the age of dengue cases in Thailand. Countries in the region lagging behind Thailand in the demographic transition may experience the same increase as their population ages. The impact of demographic changes on the force of infection has been hypothesized for other diseases, but, to our knowledge, this is the first observation of this phenomenon

How to find simple and accurate rules for viral protease cleavage specificities

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Proteases of human pathogens are becoming increasingly important drug targets, hence it is necessary to understand their substrate specificity and to interpret this knowledge in practically useful ways. New methods are being developed that produce large amounts of cleavage information for individual proteases and some have been applied to extract cleavage rules from data. However, the hitherto proposed methods for extracting rules have been neither easy to understand nor very accurate. To be practically useful, cleavage rules should be accurate, compact, and expressed in an easily understandable way.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>A new method is presented for producing cleavage rules for viral proteases with seemingly complex cleavage profiles. The method is based on orthogonal search-based rule extraction (OSRE) combined with spectral clustering. It is demonstrated on substrate data sets for human immunodeficiency virus type 1 (HIV-1) protease and hepatitis C (HCV) NS3/4A protease, showing excellent prediction performance for both HIV-1 cleavage and HCV NS3/4A cleavage, agreeing with observed HCV genotype differences. New cleavage rules (consensus sequences) are suggested for HIV-1 and HCV NS3/4A cleavages. The practical usability of the method is also demonstrated by using it to predict the location of an internal cleavage site in the HCV NS3 protease and to correct the location of a previously reported internal cleavage site in the HCV NS3 protease. The method is fast to converge and yields accurate rules, on par with previous results for HIV-1 protease and better than previous state-of-the-art for HCV NS3/4A protease. Moreover, the rules are fewer and simpler than previously obtained with rule extraction methods.</p> <p>Conclusion</p> <p>A rule extraction methodology by searching for multivariate low-order predicates yields results that significantly outperform existing rule bases on out-of-sample data, but are more transparent to expert users. The approach yields rules that are easy to use and useful for interpreting experimental data.</p

Role of cellular senescence and NOX4-mediated oxidative stress in systemic sclerosis pathogenesis.

Systemic sclerosis (SSc) is a systemic autoimmune disease characterized by progressive fibrosis of skin and numerous internal organs and a severe fibroproliferative vasculopathy resulting frequently in severe disability and high mortality. Although the etiology of SSc is unknown and the detailed mechanisms responsible for the fibrotic process have not been fully elucidated, one important observation from a large US population study was the demonstration of a late onset of SSc with a peak incidence between 45 and 54 years of age in African-American females and between 65 and 74 years of age in white females. Although it is not appropriate to consider SSc as a disease of aging, the possibility that senescence changes in the cellular elements involved in its pathogenesis may play a role has not been thoroughly examined. The process of cellular senescence is extremely complex, and the mechanisms, molecular events, and signaling pathways involved have not been fully elucidated; however, there is strong evidence to support the concept that oxidative stress caused by the excessive generation of reactive oxygen species may be one important mechanism involved. On the other hand, numerous studies have implicated oxidative stress in SSc pathogenesis, thus, suggesting a plausible mechanism in which excessive oxidative stress induces cellular senescence and that the molecular events associated with this complex process play an important role in the fibrotic and fibroproliferative vasculopathy characteristic of SSc. Here, recent studies examining the role of cellular senescence and of oxidative stress in SSc pathogenesis will be reviewed

Robust Target Gene Discovery through Transcriptome Perturbations and Genome-Wide Enhancer Predictions in Drosophila Uncovers a Regulatory Basis for Sensory Specification

CisTarget X is a novel computational method that accurately predicts Atonal governed regulatory networks in the retina of the fruit fly

DNA Microarrays for Identifying Fishes

In many cases marine organisms and especially their diverse developmental stages are difficult to identify by morphological characters. DNA-based identification methods offer an analytically powerful addition or even an alternative. In this study, a DNA microarray has been developed to be able to investigate its potential as a tool for the identification of fish species from European seas based on mitochondrial 16S rDNA sequences. Eleven commercially important fish species were selected for a first prototype. Oligonucleotide probes were designed based on the 16S rDNA sequences obtained from 230 individuals of 27 fish species. In addition, more than 1200 sequences of 380 species served as sequence background against which the specificity of the probes was tested in silico. Single target hybridisations with Cy5-labelled, PCR-amplified 16S rDNA fragments from each of the 11 species on microarrays containing the complete set of probes confirmed their suitability. True-positive, fluorescence signals obtained were at least one order of magnitude stronger than false-positive cross-hybridisations. Single nontarget hybridisations resulted in cross-hybridisation signals at approximately 27% of the cases tested, but all of them were at least one order of magnitude lower than true-positive signals. This study demonstrates that the 16S rDNA gene is suitable for designing oligonucleotide probes, which can be used to differentiate 11 fish species. These data are a solid basis for the second step to create a “Fish Chip” for approximately 50 fish species relevant in marine environmental and fisheries research, as well as control of fisheries products

Biobanking and consenting to research: a qualitative thematic analysis of young people’s perspectives in the North East of England

Background: Biobanking biospecimens and consent are common practice in paediatric research. We need to explore children and young people’s (CYP) knowledge and perspectives around the use of and consent to biobanking. This will ensure meaningful informed consent can be obtained and improve current consent procedures. Methods: We designed a survey, in co-production with CYP, collecting demographic data, views on biobanking, and consent using three scenarios: 1) prospective consent, 2) deferred consent, and 3) reconsent and assent at age of capacity. The survey was disseminated via the Young Person’s Advisory Group North England (YPAGne) and participating CYP’s secondary schools. Data were analysed using a qualitative thematic approach by three independent reviewers (including CYP) to identify common themes. Data triangulation occurred independently by a fourth reviewer. Results: One hundred two CYP completed the survey. Most were between 16–18 years (63.7%, N = 65) and female (66.7%, N = 68). 72.3% had no prior knowledge of biobanking (N = 73). Acceptability of prospective consent for biobanking was high (91.2%, N = 93) with common themes: ‘altruism’, ‘potential benefits outweigh individual risk’, 'frugality', and ‘(in)convenience’. Deferred consent was also deemed acceptable in the large majority (84.3%, N = 86), with common themes: ‘altruism’, ‘body integrity’ and ‘sample frugality’. 76.5% preferred to reconsent when cognitively mature enough to give assent (N = 78), even if parental consent was previously in place. 79.2% wanted to be informed if their biobanked biospecimen is reused (N = 80). Conclusion: Prospective and deferred consent acceptability for biobanking is high among CYP in the UK. Altruism, frugality, body integrity, and privacy are the most important themes. Clear communication and justification are paramount to obtain consent. Any CYP with capacity should be part of the consenting procedure, if possible

Analyses and localization of pectin-like carbohydrates in cell wall and mucilage of the green alga Netrium digitus

The unicellular, simply shaped desmid Netrium digitus inhabiting acid bog ponds grows in two phases. Prior to division, the cell elongates at its central zone, whereas in a second phase, polar tip growth occurs. Electron microscopy demonstrates that Netrium is surrounded by a morphologically homogeneous cell wall, which lacks pores. Immunocytochemical and biochemical analyses give insight into physical wall properties and, thus, into adaptation to the extreme environment. The monoclonal antibodies JIM5 and JIM7 directed against pectic epitopes with different degrees of esterification label preferentially growing wall zones in Netrium. In contrast, 2F4 marks the cell wall only after experimental de-esterification. Electron energy loss spectroscopy reveals Ca-binding capacities of pectins and gives indirect evidence for the degree of their esterification. An antibody raised against Netrium mucilage is not only specific to mucilage but also recognizes wall components in transmission electron microscopy and dot blots. These results indicate a smooth transition between mucilage and the cell wall in Netrium