Desert locust populations, rainfall and climate change: insights from phenomenological models using gridded monthly data

Using autocorrelation analysis and autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA)modelling, we analysed a time series of the monthly number of 1° grid squares infested with desert locust Schistocerca gregaria swarms throughout the geographical range of the species from 1930–1987. Statistically significant first- and higher-order autocorrelations were found in the series. Although endogenous components captured much of the variance, adding rainfall data improved endogenous ARIMA models and resulted in more realistic forecasts. Using a square-root transformation for the locust data improved the fit. The models were only partially successful when accounting for the dramatic changes in abundance which may occur during locust upsurges and declines, in some cases successfully predicting these phenomena but underestimating their severity. Better fitting models were also produced when rainfall data were added to models of an equivalent series for desert locust hoppers (nymphs) that incorporated lagged data for locust swarms as independent variables, representing parent generations. The results are discussed in relation to predicting likely changes in desert locust dynamics with reference to potential effects of climate change

The detection of cervical intraepithelial neoplasia by electrical impedance spectroscopy: The effects of acetic acid and tissue homogeneity

Objective. To evaluate the efficacy of an electrical impedance probe (Epitheliometer) in the diagnosis of high grade cervical intraepithelial neoplasia (CIN) in women referred with cervical smear abnormalities and to assess the effect of acetic acid (AA) and tissue boundaries on the measurements. Methods. A prospective observational study was undertaken in the colposcopy clinic. One hundred and sixty-five women, either with a clinical indication or abnormal cervical cytology, were recruited into the study. A pencil type probe was used to record impedance spectra from 12 points on the cervix before and after the application of 5% AA. Spectra were also recorded from tissue boundaries. Colposcopic examinations, including probe positioning, were video recorded to allow for correlations between histopathological diagnosis of colposcopically directed biopsies, colposcopic impression and the diagnosis based on impedance measurements. Results. Receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves were derived. The areas under the curves (AUCs) to discriminate original squamous from high grade CIN were 0.80 (pre AA) and 0.79 (post AA). Comparison of these curves showed no significant difference, indicating that application of AA does not produce a large change in spectra. The probe Could distinguish tissue boundaries from homogeneous tissue points. Conclusion. The Epitheliometer has the potential to be used as an adjunct to colposcopy in the diagnosis of high grade CIN. It has the advantage of real time results, decreasing the need for diagnostic cervical biopsies, and facilitates a wider use of the 'see and treat' policy without the risk of overtreatment. (C) 2009 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved

Association of open-angle glaucoma loci with incident glaucoma in the Blue Mountains Eye Study.

This article is available under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License (CC BY). http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/3.0/ You may distribute and copy the article, create extracts, abstracts, and other revised versions, adaptations or derivative works of or from an article (such as a translation), to include in a collective work (such as an anthology), to text or data mine the article, including for commercial purposes without permission from Elsevier. The original work must always be appropriately credited.PURPOSE: To determine if open-angle glaucoma (OAG)-associated single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) are associated with incident glaucoma and if such genetic information is useful in OAG risk prediction. DESIGN: Case-control from within a population-based longitudinal study. METHODS: study population: Individuals aged over 49 years of age living in the Blue Mountains region west of Sydney and enrolled in the Blue Mountains Eye Study. observation: Cases for this sub-study (n = 67) developed incident OAG between baseline and 10-year visits, in either eye, while controls (n = 1919) had no evidence for OAG at any visit. All participants had an ocular examination and DNA genotyped for reported OAG risk SNPs. main outcome measure: Incident OAG. RESULTS: Two loci also known to be associated with cup-to-disc ratio as well as OAG (9p21 near CDKN2B-AS1 and SIX1/SIX6) were both significantly associated with incident OAG in the Blue Mountains Eye Study cohort (P = .006 and P = .004, respectively). The TMCO1 locus was nominally associated (P = .012), while the CAV1/CAV2 and 8q22 loci were not associated. Multivariate logistic regression and neural network analysis both indicated that the genetic risk factors contributed positively to the predictive models incorporating traditional risk factors. CONCLUSIONS: This study shows that previously reported genetic variations related to OAG and cup-to-disc ratio are associated with the onset of OAG and thus may become useful in risk prediction algorithms designed to target early treatment to those most at risk of developing glaucoma

The design, development and evaluation of an array-based FES system with automated setup for the correction of drop foot

Functional electrical stimulation has been shown to be a safe and effective means of correcting drop foot of central neurological origin. However, despite recent technological advances, the set-up of surface stimulators remains a challenge for many users with drop foot. The automation of the setup process through the use of electrode arrays has been proposed as a way to address this problem. This paper describes a series of research and clinical studies which have led to the first demonstration of unsupervised automated setup of an electrode-array based drop foot stimulator. Finally, future research plans are discussed

Modelling and analysis of electrical impedance myography of the lateral tongue

Objective: Electrical impedance myography (EIM) performed on the centre of the tongue shows promise in detecting amyotrophic lateral sclerosis (ALS). Lateral recordings may improve diagnostic performance and provide pathophysiological insights through the assessment of asymmetry. However, it is not known if electrode proximity to the muscle edge, or electrode rotation, distort spectra. We evaluated this using finite element-based modelling. Approach: Nine thousand EIM from patients and healthy volunteers were used to develop a finite element model for phase and magnitude. Simulations varied electrode proximity to the muscle edge and electrode rotation. LT-Spice simulations assessed disease effects. Patient data were assessed for reliability, agreement and classification performance. Main results: No effect on phase spectra was seen if all electrodes remained in contact with the tissue. Small effects on magnitude were observed. Cole-Cole circuit simulations indicated capacitance reduced with disease severity. Lateral tongue muscle recordings in both patients and healthy volunteers were reproducible and symmetrical. Combined lateral/central tongue EIM improved disease classification compared to either placement alone. Significance: Lateral EIM tongue measurements using phase angle are feasible. Such measurements are reliable, find no evidence of tongue muscle asymmetry in ALS and improve disease classification. Lateral measurements enhance tongue EIM in ALS

A review of the design and clinical evaluation of the ShefStim array-based functional electrical stimulation system

Functional electrical stimulation has been shown to be a safe and effective means of correcting foot 12 drop of central neurological origin. Current surface-based devices typically consist of a single channel stimulator, 13 a sensor for determining gait phase and a cuff, within which is housed the anode and cathode. The cuff-mounted 14 electrode design reduces the likelihood of large errors in electrode placement, but the user is still fully responsible 15 for selecting the correct stimulation level each time the system is donned. Researchers have investigated different 16 approaches to automating aspects of setup and/or use, including recent promising work based on iterative learning 17 techniques. This paper reports on the design and clinical evaluation of an electrode array-based FES system for 18 the correction of drop foot, ShefStim. The paper reviews the design process from proof of concept lab-based study, 19 through modelling of the array geometry and interface layer to array search algorithm development. Finally, the 20 paper summarises two clinical studies involving patients with drop foot. The results suggest that the ShefStim 21 system with automated setup produces results which are comparable with clinician setup of conventional systems. 22 Further, the final study demonstrated that patients can use the system without clinical supervision. When used 23 unsupervised, setup time was 14 minutes (9 minutes for automated search plus 5 minutes for donning the 24 equipment), although this figure could be reduced significantly with relatively minor changes to the design

An Intraocular Pressure Polygenic Risk Score Stratifies Multiple Primary Open-Angle Glaucoma Parameters Including Treatment Intensity

Purpose: To examine the combined effects of common genetic variants associated with intraocular pressure (IOP) on primary open-angle glaucoma (POAG) phenotype using a polygenic risk score (PRS) stratification. Design: Cross-sectional study. Participants: For the primary analysis, we examined the glaucoma phenotype of 2154 POAG patients enrolled in the Australian and New Zealand Registry of Advanced Glaucoma, including patients recruited from the United Kingdom. For replication, we examined an independent cohort of 624 early POAG patients. Methods Using IOP genome-wide association study summary statistics, we developed a PRS derived solely from IOP-associated variants and stratified POAG patients into 3 risk tiers. The lowest and highest quintiles of the score were set as the low- and high-risk groups, respectively, and the other quintiles were set as the intermediate risk group. Main Outcome Measures: Clinical glaucoma phenotype including maximum recorded IOP, age at diagnosis, number of family members affected by glaucoma, cup-to-disc ratio, visual field mean deviation, and treatment intensity. Results: A dose–response relationship was found between the IOP PRS and the maximum recorded IOP, with the high genetic risk group having a higher maximum IOP by 1.7 mmHg (standard deviation [SD], 0.62 mmHg) than the low genetic risk group (P = 0.006). Compared with the low genetic risk group, the high genetic risk group had a younger age of diagnosis by 3.7 years (SD, 1.0 years; P < 0.001), more family members affected by 0.46 members (SD, 0.11 members; P < 0.001), and higher rates of incisional surgery (odds ratio, 1.5; 95% confidence interval, 1.1–2.0; P = 0.007). No statistically significant difference was found in mean deviation. We further replicated the maximum IOP, number of family members affected by glaucoma, and treatment intensity (number of medications) results in the early POAG cohort (P ≤ 0.01). Conclusions: The IOP PRS was correlated positively with maximum IOP, disease severity, need for surgery, and number of affected family members. Genes acting via IOP-mediated pathways, when considered in aggregate, have clinically important and reproducible implications for glaucoma patients and their close family members

Diagnosis and management of selective fetal growth restriction in monochorionic twin pregnancies: A cross‐sectional international survey

Objective: To identify current practices in the management of selective fetal growth restriction (sFGR) in monochorionic diamniotic (MCDA) twin pregnancies. Design: Cross‐sectional survey. Setting: International. Population: Clinicians involved in the management of MCDA twin pregnancies with sFGR. Methods: A structured, self‐administered survey. Main Outcome Measures: Clinical practices and attitudes to diagnostic criteria and management strategies. Results: Overall, 62.8% (113/180) of clinicians completed the survey; of which, 66.4% (75/113) of the respondents reported that they would use an estimated fetal weight (EFW) of 25% for the diagnosis of sFGR. For early‐onset type I sFGR, 79.8% (75/94) of respondents expressed that expectant management would be their routine practice. On the other hand, for early‐onset type II and type III sFGR, 19.3% (17/88) and 35.7% (30/84) of respondents would manage these pregnancies expectantly, whereas 71.6% (63/88) and 57.1% (48/84) would refer these pregnancies to a fetal intervention centre or would offer fetal intervention for type II and type III cases, respectively. Moreover, 39.0% (16/41) of the respondents would consider fetoscopic laser surgery (FLS) for early‐onset type I sFGR, whereas 41.5% (17/41) would offer either FLS or selective feticide, and 12.2% (5/41) would exclusively offer selective feticide. For early‐onset type II and type III sFGR cases, 25.9% (21/81) and 31.4% (22/70) would exclusively offer FLS, respectively, whereas 33.3% (27/81) and 32.9% (23/70) would exclusively offer selective feticide. Conclusions: There is significant variation in clinician practices and attitudes towards the management of early‐onset sFGR in MCDA twin pregnancies, especially for type II and type III cases, highlighting the need for high‐level evidence to guide management