The rise and fall of tuberculosis in Malawi: associations with HIV infection and antiretroviral therapy.

OBJECTIVES: Since 1985, Malawi has experienced a dual epidemic of HIV and tuberculosis (TB) which has been moderated recently by the advent of antiretroviral therapy (ART). The aim of this study was to describe the association over several decades between HIV/AIDS, the scale-up of ART and TB case notifications. METHODS: Aggregate data were extracted from annual reports of the National TB Control Programme, the Ministry of Health HIV Department and the National Statistics Office. ART coverage was calculated using the total HIV population as denominator (derived from UNAIDS Spectrum software). RESULTS: In 1970, there were no HIV-infected persons but numbers had increased to a maximum of 1.18 million by 2014. HIV prevalence reached a maximum of 10.8% in 2000, thereafter decreasing to 7.5% by 2014. Numbers alive on ART increased from 2586 in 2003 to 536 527 (coverage 45.3%) by 2014. In 1985, there were 5286 TB cases which reached a maximum of 28 234 in 2003 and then decreased to 17 723 by 2014 (37% decline from 2003). There were increases in all types of new TB between 1998-2003 which then declined by 30% for extrapulmonary TB, by 37% for new smear-positive PTB and by 50% for smear-negative PTB. Previously treated TB cases reached a maximum of 3443 in 2003 and then declined by 42% by 2014. CONCLUSION: The rise and fall of TB in Malawi between 1985 and 2014 was strongly associated with HIV infection and ART scale-up; this has implications for ending the TB epidemic in high HIV-TB burden countries

The prevalence of pulmonary tuberculosis among miners from the Karonga, Rumphi, Kasungu and Lilongwe Districts of Malawi in 2019

Introduction Miners in sub-Saharan Africa have a greater risk of tuberculosis (TB) than any other working population in the world. In spite of the presence of large and vulnerable population of miners in Malawi, no previous study has aimed to assess the burden of TB among these miners. This study aimed to determine the prevalence of pulmonary tuberculosis (PTB) and health-seeking behaviour (HSB) in a population of miners in Malawi, and a range of associated factors. Our goal was to develop a method to identify missing cases of TB. MethodsWe conducted a cross-sectional study in the Karonga, Rumphi, Kasungu and Lilongwe districts of Malawi in 2019. We calculated frequencies, proportions, odds ratios (ORs) and their 95% confidence intervals (95% CIs), and used the chi-square test in STATA version15.1 to investigate the burden and magnitude of PTB in the mining sector. Bivariate and multivariate logistic regression models were also fitted for PTB and HSB. ResultsOf the 2400 miners approached, we were able to interview 2013 (84%). Of these, 1435 (71%) were males, 1438 (71%) had known HIV status and 272 (14%) had PTB. Multivariate analysis showed that the miners performing informal mining were 50% more likely to develop PTB compared with those in formal mining (adjusted odds ratio [AOR]=1.50, 95% CI: 1.10–2.05, P=0.01). A total of 459 (23% of 2013) miners had presumptive TB. Of these, 120 (26%) sought health care; 80% sought health care at health facilities. Multivariate analysis also showed that miners who experienced night sweats were less likely to seek health care compared with those without night sweats (AOR=0.52, 95% CI: 0.30–0.90, P=0.02).ConclusionThe prevalence of PTB was higher among miners than in the general population. Consequently, targeted TB screening programmes for miners may represent a suitable strategy to adopt if we are to end TB by 2030. Poor health-seeking behaviours among miners is worrisome and further qualitative research is necessary to understand the barriers to accessing health care in these settings. &nbsp

Operational research in Malawi: making a difference with cotrimoxazole preventive therapy in patients with tuberculosis and HIV.

BACKGROUND: In Malawi, high case fatality rates in patients with tuberculosis, who were also co-infected with HIV, and high early death rates in people living with HIV during the initiation of antiretroviral treatment (ART) adversely impacted on treatment outcomes for the national tuberculosis and ART programmes respectively. This article i) discusses the operational research that was conducted in the country on cotrimoxazole preventive therapy, ii) outlines the steps that were taken to translate these findings into national policy and practice, iii) shows how the implementation of cotrimoxazole preventive therapy for both TB patients and HIV-infected patients starting ART was associated with reduced death rates, and iv) highlights lessons that can be learnt for other settings and interventions. DISCUSSION: District and facility-based operational research was undertaken between 1999 and 2005 to assess the effectiveness of cotrimoxazole preventive therapy in reducing death rates in TB patients and subsequently in patients starting ART under routine programme conditions. Studies demonstrated significant reductions in case fatality in HIV-infected TB patients receiving cotrimoxazole and in HIV-infected patients about to start ART. Following the completion of research, the findings were rapidly disseminated nationally at stakeholder meetings convened by the Ministry of Health and internationally through conferences and peer-reviewed scientific publications. The Ministry of Health made policy changes based on the available evidence, following which there was countrywide distribution of the updated policy and guidelines. Policy was rapidly moved to practice with the development of monitoring tools, drug procurement and training packages. National programme performance improved which showed a significant decrease in case fatality rates in TB patients as well as a reduction in early death in people with HIV starting ART. SUMMARY: Key lessons for moving this research endeavour through to policy and practice were the importance of placing operational research within the programme, defining relevant questions, obtaining "buy-in" from national programme staff at the beginning of projects and having key actors or "policy entrepreneurs" to push forward the policy-making process. Ultimately, any change in policy and practice has to benefit patients, and the ultimate judge of success is whether treatment outcomes improve or not

Effect of patient-delivered household contact tracing and prevention for tuberculosis: A household cluster-randomised trial in Malawi.

BACKGROUND: Household contact tracing provides TB screening and TB preventive therapy (TPT) to contacts at high risk of TB disease. However, it is resource intensive, inconvenient, and often poorly implemented. We investigated a novel model aiming to improve uptake. METHODS: Between May and December 2014, we randomised patient with TB who consented to participate in the trial to either standard of care (SOC) or intervention (PACTS) arms. Participants randomised to PACTS received one screening/triage tool (adapted from WHO integrated management of adolescent and adult illnesses [IMAI] guidelines) and sputum pots for each reported household contact. The tool guided participants through symptom screening; TPT (6-months of isoniazid) eligibility; and sputum collection for contacts. Patients randomised to SOC were managed in accordance with national guidelines, that is, they received verbal instruction on who to bring to clinics for investigation using national guidelines. MAIN OUTCOME AND MEASURES: The primary outcome was the proportion of adult contacts receiving treatment for TB within 3 months of randomisation. Secondary outcomes were the proportions of child contacts under age 5 years (U5Y) who were commenced on, and completed, TPT. Data were analyzed by logistic regression with random effects to adjust for household clustering. RESULTS: Two hundred and fourteen index TB participants were block-randomized from two sites (107 PACTS, reporting 418 contacts; and 107 SOC, reporting 420 contacts). Overall, 62.8% of index TB participants were HIV-positive and 52.1% were TB culture-positive. 250 otherwise eligible TB patients declined participation and 6 households (10 PACTS, 6 SOC) were lost to follow-up and were not included in the analysis. By three months, nine contacts (PACTS: 6, [1.4%]; SOC: 3, [0.7%]) had TB diagnosed, with no difference between groups (adjusted odds ratio [aOR]: 2.18, 95% CI: 0.60-7.95). Eligible PACTS contacts (37/96, 38.5%) were more likely to initiate TPT by 3-months compared to SOC contacts (27/101, 26.7%; aOR 2.27, 95% CI: 1.04-4.98). U5Y children in the PACTS arm (47/81 58.0%) were more likely to have initiated TPT before the 3-month visit compared to SOC children (36/89, 41.4%; aOR: 2.31, 95% CI: 1.05-5.06). CONCLUSIONS AND RELEVANCE: A household-centred patient-delivered symptom screen and IPT eligibility assessment significantly increased timely TPT uptake among U5Y children, but did not significantly increase TB diagnosis. This model needs to be optimized for acceptability, given low participation, and investigated in other low resource settings. CLINICAL TRIAL REGISTRATION: TRIAL REGISTRATION NUMBER: ISRCTN81659509 https://www.isrctn.com/ISRCTN81659509?q=&filters=conditionCategory:Respiratory,recruitmentCountry:Malawi,ageRange:Mixed&sort=&offset=1&totalResults=1&page=1&pageSize=10&searchType=basic-search. 19 July 2012

Impact of community-wide tuberculosis active case finding and HIV testing on tuberculosis trends in Malawi

BACKGROUND: Tuberculosis case-finding interventions are critical to meeting World Health Organization End TB strategy goals. We investigated the impact of community-wide tuberculosis active case-finding (ACF) alongside scale-up of HIV testing and care on trends in adult tuberculosis case notification rates (CNRs) in Blantyre, Malawi. METHODS: Five rounds of ACF for tuberculosis (1-2 weeks of leafleting, door-to-door enquiry for cough and sputum microscopy) were delivered to neighbourhoods ("ACF areas") in North-West Blantyre between April 2011 and August 2014. Many of these neighborhoods also had concurrent HIV testing interventions. The remaining neighbourhoods in Blantyre City ("non-ACF areas") provided a non-randomised comparator. We analyzed TB CNRs from January 2009 until December 2018. We used interrupted time series analysis to compare tuberculosis CNRs before ACF and after ACF, and between ACF and non-ACF areas. FINDINGS: Tuberculosis CNRs increased in Blantyre concurrently with start of ACF for tuberculosis in both ACF and non-ACF areas, with a larger magnitude in ACF areas. Compared to a counterfactual where pre-ACF CNR trends continued during ACF period, we estimated there were an additional 101 (95% confidence interval [CI] 42 to 160) microbiologically confirmed (Bac+) tuberculosis diagnoses per 100,000 person-years in the ACF areas in three and a half years of ACF. Compared to a counterfactual where trends in ACF area were the same as trends in non-ACF areas, we estimated an additional 63 (95% CI 38 to 90) Bac+ diagnoses per 100,000 person-years in the same period. INTERPRETATION: Tuberculosis ACF was associated with a rapid increase in people diagnosed with tuberculosis in Blantyre

Prevalence of bacteriologically-confirmed pulmonary tuberculosis in urban Blantyre, Malawi 2019-20: substantial decline compared to 2013-14 national survey

Recent evidence shows rapidly changing tuberculosis (TB) epidemiology in Southern and Eastern Africa, with need for subdistrict prevalence estimates to guide targeted interventions. We conducted a pulmonary TB prevalence survey to estimate current TB burden in Blantyre city, Malawi. From May 2019 to March 2020, 115 households in middle/high-density residential Blantyre, were randomly-selected from each of 72 clusters. Consenting eligible participants (household residents ≥ 18 years) were interviewed, including for cough (any duration), and offered HIV testing and chest X-ray; participants with cough and/or abnormal X-ray provided two sputum samples for microscopy, Xpert MTB/Rif and mycobacterial culture. TB disease prevalence and risk factors for prevalent TB were calculated using complete-case analysis, multiple imputation, and inverse probability weighting. Of 20,899 eligible adults, 15,897 (76%) were interviewed, 13,490/15,897 (85%) had X-ray, and 1,120/1,394 (80%) sputum-eligible participants produced at least one specimen, giving 15,318 complete cases (5,895, 38% men). 29/15,318 had bacteriologically-confirmed TB (189 per 100,000 complete-case (cc) / 150 per 100,000 with inverse weighting (iw)). Men had higher burden (cc: 305 [95% CI:144–645] per 100,000) than women (cc: 117 [95% CI:65–211] per 100,000): cc adjusted odds ratio (aOR) 2.70 (1.26–5.78). Other significant risk factors for prevalent TB on complete-case analysis were working age (25–49 years) and previous TB treatment, but not HIV status. Multivariable analysis of imputed data was limited by small numbers, but previous TB and age group 25–49 years remained significantly associated with higher TB prevalence. Pulmonary TB prevalence for Blantyre was considerably lower than the 1,014 per 100,000 for urban Malawi in the 2013–14 national survey, at 150–189 per 100,000 adults, but some groups, notably men, remain disproportionately affected. TB case-finding is still needed for TB elimination in Blantyre, and similar urban centres, but should focus on reaching the highest risk groups, such as older men

Tuberculosis Immunoreactivity Surveillance in Malawi (Timasamala)—A protocol for a cross-sectional Mycobacterium tuberculosis immunoreactivity survey in Blantyre, Malawi

Tuberculosis (TB) transmission and prevalence are dynamic over time, and heterogeneous within populations. Public health programmes therefore require up-to-date, accurate epidemiological data to appropriately allocate resources, target interventions, and track progress towards End TB goals. Current methods of TB surveillance often rely on case notifications, which are biased by access to healthcare, and TB disease prevalence surveys, which are highly resource-intensive, requiring many tens of thousands of people to be tested to identify high-risk groups or capture trends. Surveys of “latent TB infection”, or immunoreactivity to Mycobacterium tuberculosis (Mtb), using tests such as interferon-gamma release assays (IGRAs) could provide a way to identify TB transmission hotspots, supplementing information from disease notifications, and with greater spatial and temporal resolution than is possible to achieve in disease prevalence surveys. This cross-sectional survey will investigate the prevalence of Mtb immunoreactivity amongst young children, adolescents and adults in Blantyre, Malawi, a high HIV-prevalence city in southern Africa. Through this study we will estimate the annual risk of TB infection (ARTI) in Blantyre and explore individual- and area-level risk factors for infection, as well as investigating geospatial heterogeneity of Mtb infection (and its determinants), and comparing these to the distribution of TB disease case-notifications. We will also evaluate novel diagnostics for Mtb infection (QIAreach QFT) and sampling methodologies (convenience sampling in healthcare settings and community sampling based on satellite imagery), which may increase the feasibility of measuring Mtb infection at large scale. The overall aim is to provide high-resolution epidemiological data and provide new insights into methodologies which may be used by TB programmes globally

Tuberculosis immunoreactivity surveillance in Malawi (Timasamala) – a protocol for a cross-sectional Mycobacterium tuberculosis immunoreactivity survey in Blantyre, Malawi

Tuberculosis (TB) transmission and prevalence are dynamic over time, and heterogeneous within populations. Public health programmes therefore require up-to-date, accurate epidemiological data to appropriately allocate resources, target interventions, and track progress towards End TB goals. Current methods of TB surveillance often rely on case notifications, which are biased by access to healthcare, and TB disease prevalence surveys, which are highly resource-intensive, requiring many tens of thousands of people to be tested to identify high-risk groups or capture trends. Surveys of “latent TB infection”, or immunoreactivity to Mycobacterium tuberculosis (Mtb), using tests such as interferon-gamma release assays (IGRAs) could provide a way to identify TB transmission hotspots, supplementing information from disease notifications, and with greater spatial and temporal resolution than is possible to achieve in disease prevalence surveys. This cross-sectional survey will investigate the prevalence of Mtb immunoreactivity amongst young children, adolescents and adults in Blantyre, Malawi, a high HIV-prevalence city in southern Africa. Through this study we will estimate the annual risk of TB infection (ARTI) in Blantyre and explore individual- and area-level risk factors for infection, as well as investigating geospatial heterogeneity of Mtb infection (and its determinants), and comparing these to the distribution of TB disease case-notifications. We will also evaluate novel diagnostics for Mtb infection (QIAreach QFT) and sampling methodologies (convenience sampling in healthcare settings and community sampling based on satellite imagery), which may increase the feasibility of measuring Mtb infection at large scale. The overall aim is to provide high-resolution epidemiological data and provide new insights into methodologies which may be used by TB programmes globally

Association of diabetes, smoking, and alcohol use with subclinical-to-symptomatic spectrum of tuberculosis in 16 countries: an individual participant data meta-analysis of national tuberculosis prevalence surveys

Summary Background Non-communicable diseases (NCDs) and NCD risk factors, such as smoking, increase the risk for tuberculosis (TB). Data are scarce on the risk of prevalent TB associated with these factors in the context of population-wide systematic screening and on the association between NCDs and NCD risk factors with different manifestations of TB, where ∼50% being asymptomatic but bacteriologically positive (subclinical). We did an individual participant data (IPD) meta-analysis of national and sub-national TB prevalence surveys to synthesise the evidence on the risk of symptomatic and subclinical TB in people with NCDs or risk factors, which could help countries to plan screening activities. Methods In this systematic review and IPD meta-analysis, we identified eligible prevalence surveys in low-income and middle-income countries that reported at least one NCD (e.g., diabetes) or NCD risk factor (e.g., smoking, alcohol use) through the archive maintained by the World Health Organization and by searching in Medline and Embase from January 1, 2000 to August 10, 2021. The search was updated on March 23, 2023. We performed a one-stage meta-analysis using multivariable multinomial models. We estimated the proportion of and the odds ratio for subclinical and symptomatic TB compared to people without TB for current smoking, alcohol use, and self-reported diabetes, adjusted for age and gender. Subclinical TB was defined as microbiologically confirmed TB without symptoms of current cough, fever, night sweats, or weight loss and symptomatic TB with at least one of these symptoms. We assessed heterogeneity using forest plots and I2 statistic. Missing variables were imputed through multi-level multiple imputation. This study is registered with PROSPERO (CRD42021272679). Findings We obtained IPD from 16 national surveys out of 21 national and five sub-national surveys identified (five in Asia and 11 in Africa, N = 740,815). Across surveys, 15.1%–56.7% of TB were subclinical (median: 38.1%). In the multivariable model, current smoking was associated with both subclinical (OR 1.67, 95% CI 1.27–2.40) and symptomatic TB (OR 1.49, 95% CI 1.34–1.66). Self-reported diabetes was associated with symptomatic TB (OR 1.67, 95% CI 1.17–2.40) but not with subclinical TB (OR 0.92, 95% CI 0.55–1.55). For alcohol drinking ≥ twice per week vs no alcohol drinking, the estimates were imprecise (OR 1.59, 95% CI 0.70–3.62) for subclinical TB and OR 1.43, 95% CI 0.59–3.46 for symptomatic TB). For the association between current smoking and symptomatic TB, I2 was high (76.5% (95% CI 62.0–85.4), while the direction of the point estimates was consistent except for three surveys with wide CIs. Interpretation Our findings suggest that current smokers are more likely to have both symptomatic and subclinical TB. These individuals can, therefore, be prioritised for intensified screening, such as the use of chest X-ray in the context of community-based screening. People with self-reported diabetes are also more likely to have symptomatic TB, but the association is unclear for subclinical TB

Tobacco smoking clusters in households affected by tuberculosis in an individual participant data meta-analysis of national tuberculosis prevalence surveys: Time for household-wide interventions?

Tuberculosis (TB) and non-communicable diseases (NCD) share predisposing risk factors. TB-associated NCD might cluster within households affected with TB requiring shared prevention and care strategies. We conducted an individual participant data meta-analysis of national TB prevalence surveys to determine whether NCD cluster in members of households with TB. We identified eligible surveys that reported at least one NCD or NCD risk factor through the archive maintained by the World Health Organization and searching in Medline and Embase from 1 January 2000 to 10 August 2021, which was updated on 23 March 2023. We compared the prevalence of NCD and their risk factors between people who do not have TB living in households with at least one person with TB (members of households with TB), and members of households without TB. We included 16 surveys (n = 740,815) from Asia and Africa. In a multivariable model adjusted for age and gender, the odds of smoking was higher among members of households with TB (adjusted odds ratio (aOR) 1.23; 95% CI: 1.11–1.38), compared with members of households without TB. The analysis did not find a significant difference in the prevalence of alcohol drinking, diabetes, hypertension, or BMI between members of households with and without TB. Studies evaluating household-wide interventions for smoking to reduce its dual impact on TB and NCD may be warranted. Systematically screening for NCD using objective diagnostic methods is needed to understand the actual burden of NCD and inform comprehensive interventions