Canadian vegetation response to climate and projected climatic change

The equilibrium response of Canadian vegetation to climate and climatic change was modeled at three organizational levels of the vegetation mosaic. The climatic parameters used as model drivers (i.e., snowpack, degree-days, minimum temperature, soil moisture deficit, and actual evapotranspiration) are components of climate that physiologically constrain the distribution of dominant plant life-forms and species in Canada. The rule-based Canadian Climate-Vegetation Model (CCVM) predicts the response of vegetation formations to climate. The rules define climatic thresholds across which one formation gives way to another. The CCVM simulation for current climatic conditions is more accurate and detailed than those of other equilibrium models. A series of ecological response surfaces predict the probability of dominance for eight boreal tree species in Canada with a high degree of success. Variation in the probability of dominance is related to the species' individualistic response to climatic constraints within different airmass regions. A boreal forest-type classification based on the probabilities of dominance shows a high degree of geographic correspondence with observed forest-types. Under two doubled-CO2 climatic scenarios, CCVM predicts a reduction in arctic tundra and subarctic woodland, a northward shift in the distribution of boreal evergreen forest and an expansion of temperate forest, boreal summergreen woodland, and two prairie formations. The response surfaces predict significant changes in species dominance under both climatic scenarios. Species exhibit an individualistic response to climatic change and respond differently under the different scenarios. All but one of the boreal forest-types derived from future probabilities of dominance are analogous to extant forest-types, but fewer types are distinguished. Geographic correspondence in the boreal forest regions simulated by the rule-based and response surface models under both the current and projected climates provides a link between the results of the two modelling approaches. There are several constraints on the realism of the vegetation scenarios in this study, but they are arguably the most reliable and comprehensive predictions for Canada to date given the direct relationship between the climatic parameters and the distribution of vegetation and the simulation of vegetation at three different organizational levels

The annual course of precipitation over much of the United States: observed versus GCM simulation

General Circulation Models (GCMs) may be useful in estimating the ecological impacts of global climatic change. We analyzed seasonal weather patterns over the conterminous United States and determined that regional patterns of rainfall seasonality appear to control the distributions of the Nation's major biomes. These regional patterns were compared to the output from three GCMs for validation. The models appear to simulate the appropriate seasonal climates in the northern tier of states. However, the spatial extent of these regions is distorted. None of the models accurately portrayed rainfall seasonalities in the southern tier of states, where biomes are primarily influenced by the Bermuda High

Long-term survival in people with transthyretin amyloid cardiomyopathy who took tafamidis: A Plain Language Summary

WHAT IS THIS PLAIN LANGUAGE SUMMARY ABOUT?: This summary presents the results from an ongoing, long-term extension study that followed an earlier study called ATTR-ACT. People who took part in this extension study and ATTR-ACT have a type of heart disease known as transthyretin amyloid cardiomyopathy (ATTR-CM for short), which causes heart failure and death. In ATTR-ACT, people took either a medicine called tafamidis or a placebo (a pill that looks like the study drug but does not contain any active ingredients) for up to 2½ years. So far, in the long-term extension study, people have continued taking tafamidis, or switched from taking a placebo to tafamidis, for another 2½ years. Researchers looked at how many people died in ATTR-ACT and the extension study. The long-term extension study is expected to end in 2027, so these are interim (not final) results. WHAT DID RESEARCHERS FIND OUT?: In the extension study of ATTR-ACT, the risk of dying was lower in people who took tafamidis continuously throughout ATTR-ACT and the extension study than in people who took placebo in ATTR-ACT and switched to tafamidis in the extension study. WHAT DO THE RESULTS MEAN?: Taking tafamidis increases how long people with ATTR-CM live. People with ATTR-CM who take tafamidis early and continuously are more likely to live longer than those who do not. These results highlight the importance of early detection and treatment in people with ATTR-CM. Clinical Trial Registration: NCT01994889 (ClinicalTrials.gov) Clinical Trial Registration: NCT02791230 (ClinicalTrials.gov)

Spaghetti Shakespeare: Johnny Hamlet and the Italian Western

The Italian Western, Johnny Hamlet (1968), directed by Enzo G. Castellari, draws on the revenge story of Shakespeare’s tragedy Hamlet for plot and characterization. While international distributors of the film downplayed its connection to highbrow Shakespeare, they emphasized the movie’s violent content and action-packed revenge narrative, which was typical of the western all’italiana. Johnny Hamlet shares similarities with the brutally violent Django (1966), directed by Sergio Corbucci, whose avenging angel protagonist epitomizes the Spaghetti Western antihero. Although the filmmakers of Johnny Hamlet characterized Johnny as a vindicator, they also sought to develop the “broody” aspect of this gunfighter, one based on Shakespeare’s famously ruminating hero. Using innovative film techniques, Johnny Hamlet shows Johnny as a contemplative pistolero

Emissions pathways, climate change, and impacts on California

The magnitude of future climate change depends substantially on the greenhouse gas emission pathways we choose. Here we explore the implications of the highest and lowest Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change emissions pathways for climate change and associated impacts in California. Based on climate projections from two state-of-the-art climate models with low and medium sensitivity (Parallel Climate Model and Hadley Centre Climate Model, version 3, respectively), we find that annual temperature increases nearly double from the lower B1 to the higher A1fi emissions scenario before 2100. Three of four simulations also show greater increases in summer temperatures as compared with winter. Extreme heat and the associated impacts on a range of temperature-sensitive sectors are substantially greater under the higher emissions scenario, with some interscenario differences apparent before midcentury. By the end of the century under the B1 scenario, heatwaves and extreme heat in Los Angeles quadruple in frequency while heat-related mortality increases two to three times; alpine subalpine forests are reduced by 50–75%; and Sierra snowpack is reduced 30–70%. Under A1fi, heatwaves in Los Angeles are six to eight times more frequent, with heat-related excess mortality increasing five to seven times; alpine subalpine forests are reduced by 75–90%; and snowpack declines 73–90%, with cascading impacts on runoff and streamflow that, combined with projected modest declines in winter precipitation, could fundamentally disrupt California’s water rights system. Although interscenario differences in climate impacts and costs of adaptation emerge mainly in the second half of the century, they are strongly dependent on emissions from preceding decades

Dearth and the English revolution : the harvest crisis of 1647-50

This article reconstructs the nature and scale of dearth in the late 1640s, emphasizing the coincidence of economic distress with constitutional crisis. It reconsiders the parish register evidence for subsistence crisis; examines the responses of central and local government; analyses the role of popular agency, especially though petitioning campaigns, in prompting reluctant magistrates to regulate the grain markets along lines stipulated by the late Elizabethan and early Stuart dearth orders, which had not been proclaimed since 1630; and accordingly suggests that the late 1640s represents a missing link in the historiography of responses to harvest failure

Simulating social-ecological systems: the Island Digital Ecosystem Avatars (IDEA) consortium

Abstract Systems biology promises to revolutionize medicine, yet human wellbeing is also inherently linked to healthy societies and environments (sustainability). The IDEA Consortium is a systems ecology open science initiative to conduct the basic scientific research needed to build use-oriented simulations (avatars) of entire social-ecological systems. Islands are the most scientifically tractable places for these studies and we begin with one of the best known: Moorea, French Polynesia. The Moorea IDEA will be a sustainability simulator modeling links and feedbacks between climate, environment, biodiversity, and human activities across a coupled marine-terrestrial landscape. As a model system, the resulting knowledge and tools will improve our ability to predict human and natural change on Moorea and elsewhere at scales relevant to management/conservation actions