BRICs Nations Growing Impact on the Global Health Sector

The most notable feature of the past five centuries of global economic history dating back from Colonial Age until the present accelerated globalization is the persistence of «North–South» division between the global rich and poor. This ground pattern has been falling apart over the last three decades with the rise of BRICs emerging economies (Brazil, Russia, India, China). The Chinese Belt and Road Initiative fosters further rapid growth and synergy among these large nations. This ambitious and historically unprecedented infrastructural project if successful can lead to a formation by 2049 of a huge common economic zone bringing opportunities for multilateral development to the BRICs. These profound changes have deep implications for the global health care sector. Previous research on health and pharmaceutical spending has clearly documented that low- and middle-income economies (LMICs), led by these emerging markets, have doubled their share in global health spending from roughly 20% up to approximately 40% in purchasing power parity terms. Alongside with these global developments, a decade ago, some of the leading Western academic centers, confirm new era of rising world’s geo-economic and geopolitical multipolarity. The world witnesses this process being accelerated today and seek deeper understanding how it will reflect on long term health and pharmaceutical expenditure trends, particularly in the leading BRICs emerging markets being a front runner of such evolution.The authors declare absence of conflict of interests

Changes in disease burden in Poland between 1990–2017 in comparison with other Central European countries: A systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017

Background Systematic collection of mortality/morbidity data over time is crucial for monitoring trends in population health, developing health policies, assessing the impact of health programs. In Poland, a comprehensive analysis describing trends in disease burden for major conditions has never been published. The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) provides data on the burden of over 300 diseases in 195 countries since 1990. We used the GBD database to undertake an assessment of disease burden in Poland, evaluate changes in population health between 1990–2017, and compare Poland with other Central European (CE) countries

A Minimal Threshold of c-di-GMP Is Essential for Fruiting Body Formation and Sporulation in Myxococcus xanthus

Generally, the second messenger bis-(3’-5’)-cyclic dimeric GMP (c-di-GMP) regulates the switch between motile and sessile lifestyles in bacteria. Here, we show that c-di-GMP is an essential regulator of multicellular development in the social bacterium Myxococcus xanthus. In response to starvation, M. xanthus initiates a developmental program that culminates in formation of spore-filled fruiting bodies. We show that c-di-GMP accumulates at elevated levels during development and that this increase is essential for completion of development whereas excess c-di-GMP does not interfere with development. MXAN3735 (renamed DmxB) is identified as a diguanylate cyclase that only functions during development and is responsible for this increased c-di-GMP accumulation. DmxB synthesis is induced in response to starvation, thereby restricting DmxB activity to development. DmxB is essential for development and functions downstream of the Dif chemosensory system to stimulate exopolysaccharide accumulation by inducing transcription of a subset of the genes encoding proteins involved in exopolysaccharide synthesis. The developmental defects in the dmxB mutant are non-cell autonomous and rescued by co-development with a strain proficient in exopolysaccharide synthesis, suggesting reduced exopolysaccharide accumulation as the causative defect in this mutant. The NtrC-like transcriptional regulator EpsI/Nla24, which is required for exopolysaccharide accumulation, is identified as a c-diGMP receptor, and thus a putative target for DmxB generated c-di-GMP. Because DmxB can be—at least partially—functionally replaced by a heterologous diguanylate cyclase, these results altogether suggest a model in which a minimum threshold level of c-di-GMP is essential for the successful completion of multicellular development in M. xanthus

Static and Dynamic Lung Volumes in Swimmers and Their Ventilatory Response to Maximal Exercise

Purpose While the static and dynamic lung volumes of active swimmers is often greater than the predicted volume of similarly active non-swimmers, little is known if their ventilatory response to exercise is also different. Methods Three groups of anthropometrically matched male adults were recruited, daily active swimmers (n = 15), daily active in fields sport (Rugby and Football) (n = 15), and recreationally active (n = 15). Forced vital capacity (FVC), forced expiratory volume in 1 s (FEV1), and maximal voluntary ventilation (MVV) was measured before and after exercise to volitional exhaustion. Results Swimmers had significantly larger FVC (6.2 ± 0.6 l, 109 ± 9% pred) than the other groups (5.6 ± 0.5 l, 106 ± 13% pred, 5.5 ± 0.8, 99% pred, the sportsmen and recreational groups, respectively). FEV1 and MVV were not different. While at peak exercise, all groups reached their ventilatory reserve (around 20%), the swimmers had a greater minute ventilation rate than the recreational group (146 ± 19 vs 120 ± 87 l/min), delivering this volume by breathing deeper and slower. Conclusions The swimmers utilised their larger static volumes (FVC) differently during exercise by meeting their ventilation volume through long and deep breaths

The effect of socioeconomic status on three-year mortality after first-ever ischemic stroke in Nanjing, China

BACKGROUND: Low socioeconomic status (SES) is associated with increased mortality after stroke in developed countries. This study was performed to determine whether a similar association also exists in China. METHODS: A total of 806 patients with first-ever ischemic stroke were enrolled in our study. From August 1999 to August 2005, the three-year all-cause mortality following the stroke was determined. Level of education, occupation, taxable income and housing space were used as indicators for SES. Stepwise univariate and multivariate COX proportional hazards models were used to study the association between the SES measures and the three-year mortality. RESULTS: Our analyses confirmed that occupation, taxable income and housing space were significantly associated with three-year mortality after first-ever stroke. Manual workers had a significant hazard ratio of 5.44 (95% CI 2.75 to 10.77) for death within three years when compared with non-manual workers. Those in the zero income group had a significant hazard ratio of 5.35 (95% CI 2.95 to 9.70) and those in the intermediate income group 2.10 (95% CI 1.24 to 3.58) when compared with those in the highest income group. Those in two of the three groups with the smallest housing space also had significant hazard ratios of 2.06 (95% CI 1.16 to 3.65) and 1.68 (95% CI 1.12 to 2.52) when compared with those in group with the largest housing space. These hazard ratios remained largely unchanged after multivariate adjustment for age, gender, baseline cardiovascular disease risk factors, and stroke severity. The analyses did not confirm an association with educational level. CONCLUSION: Lower SES has a negative impact on the outcome of first-ever stroke in Nanjing, China. This confirms the need to improve preventive and secondary care for stroke among low SES groups

International meta-analysis of PTSD genome-wide association studies identifies sex- and ancestry-specific genetic risk loci.

The risk of posttraumatic stress disorder (PTSD) following trauma is heritable, but robust common variants have yet to be identified. In a multi-ethnic cohort including over 30,000 PTSD cases and 170,000 controls we conduct a genome-wide association study of PTSD. We demonstrate SNP-based heritability estimates of 5-20%, varying by sex. Three genome-wide significant loci are identified, 2 in European and 1 in African-ancestry analyses. Analyses stratified by sex implicate 3 additional loci in men. Along with other novel genes and non-coding RNAs, a Parkinson's disease gene involved in dopamine regulation, PARK2, is associated with PTSD. Finally, we demonstrate that polygenic risk for PTSD is significantly predictive of re-experiencing symptoms in the Million Veteran Program dataset, although specific loci did not replicate. These results demonstrate the role of genetic variation in the biology of risk for PTSD and highlight the necessity of conducting sex-stratified analyses and expanding GWAS beyond European ancestry populations

Global, regional, and national comparative risk assessment of 79 behavioural, environmental and occupational, and metabolic risks or clusters of risks, 1990-2015: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2015

SummaryBackground The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2015 provides an up-to-date synthesis of the evidence for risk factor exposure and the attributable burden of disease. By providing national and subnational assessments spanning the past 25 years, this study can inform debates on the importance of addressing risks in context. Methods We used the comparative risk assessment framework developed for previous iterations of the Global Burden of Disease Study to estimate attributable deaths, disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs), and trends in exposure by age group, sex, year, and geography for 79 behavioural, environmental and occupational, and metabolic risks or clusters of risks from 1990 to 2015. This study included 388 risk-outcome pairs that met World Cancer Research Fund-defined criteria for convincing or probable evidence. We extracted relative risk and exposure estimates from randomised controlled trials, cohorts, pooled cohorts, household surveys, census data, satellite data, and other sources. We used statistical models to pool data, adjust for bias, and incorporate covariates. We developed a metric that allows comparisons of exposure across risk factors—the summary exposure value. Using the counterfactual scenario of theoretical minimum risk level, we estimated the portion of deaths and DALYs that could be attributed to a given risk. We decomposed trends in attributable burden into contributions from population growth, population age structure, risk exposure, and risk-deleted cause-specific DALY rates. We characterised risk exposure in relation to a Socio-demographic Index (SDI). Findings Between 1990 and 2015, global exposure to unsafe sanitation, household air pollution, childhood underweight, childhood stunting, and smoking each decreased by more than 25%. Global exposure for several occupational risks, high body-mass index (BMI), and drug use increased by more than 25% over the same period. All risks jointly evaluated in 2015 accounted for 57·8% (95% CI 56·6–58·8) of global deaths and 41·2% (39·8–42·8) of DALYs. In 2015, the ten largest contributors to global DALYs among Level 3 risks were high systolic blood pressure (211·8 million [192·7 million to 231·1 million] global DALYs), smoking (148·6 million [134·2 million to 163·1 million]), high fasting plasma glucose (143·1 million [125·1 million to 163·5 million]), high BMI (120·1 million [83·8 million to 158·4 million]), childhood undernutrition (113·3 million [103·9 million to 123·4 million]), ambient particulate matter (103·1 million [90·8 million to 115·1 million]), high total cholesterol (88·7 million [74·6 million to 105·7 million]), household air pollution (85·6 million [66·7 million to 106·1 million]), alcohol use (85·0 million [77·2 million to 93·0 million]), and diets high in sodium (83·0 million [49·3 million to 127·5 million]). From 1990 to 2015, attributable DALYs declined for micronutrient deficiencies, childhood undernutrition, unsafe sanitation and water, and household air pollution; reductions in risk-deleted DALY rates rather than reductions in exposure drove these declines. Rising exposure contributed to notable increases in attributable DALYs from high BMI, high fasting plasma glucose, occupational carcinogens, and drug use. Environmental risks and childhood undernutrition declined steadily with SDI; low physical activity, high BMI, and high fasting plasma glucose increased with SDI. In 119 countries, metabolic risks, such as high BMI and fasting plasma glucose, contributed the most attributable DALYs in 2015. Regionally, smoking still ranked among the leading five risk factors for attributable DALYs in 109 countries; childhood underweight and unsafe sex remained primary drivers of early death and disability in much of sub-Saharan Africa. Interpretation Declines in some key environmental risks have contributed to declines in critical infectious diseases. Some risks appear to be invariant to SDI. Increasing risks, including high BMI, high fasting plasma glucose, drug use, and some occupational exposures, contribute to rising burden from some conditions, but also provide opportunities for intervention. Some highly preventable risks, such as smoking, remain major causes of attributable DALYs, even as exposure is declining. Public policy makers need to pay attention to the risks that are increasingly major contributors to global burden. Funding Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation

Changes in Scottish suicide rates during the Second World War

BACKGROUND: It is believed that total reported suicide rates tend to decrease during wartime. However, analysis of suicide rates during recent conflicts suggests a more complex picture, with increases in some age groups and changes in method choice. As few age and gender specific analyses of more distant conflicts have been conducted, it is not clear if these findings reflect a change in the epidemiology of suicide in wartime. Therefore, we examined suicide rates in Scotland before, during and after the Second World War to see if similar features were present. METHODS: Data on deaths in Scotland recorded as suicide during the period 1931 – 1952, and population estimates for each of these years, were obtained from the General Register Office for Scotland. Using computer spreadsheets, suicide rates by gender, age and method were calculated. Forward stepwise logistic regression was used to assess the effect of gender, war and year on suicide rates using SAS V8.2. RESULTS: The all-age suicide rate among both men and women declined during the period studied. However, when this long-term decline is taken into account, the likelihood of suicide during the Second World War was higher than during both the pre-War and post-War periods. Suicide rates among men aged 15–24 years rose during the Second World War, peaking at 148 per million (41 deaths) during 1942 before declining to 39 per million (10 deaths) by 1945, while the rate among men aged 25–34 years reached 199 per million (43 deaths) during 1943 before falling to 66 per million (23 deaths) by 1946. This was accompanied by an increase in male suicides attributable to firearms and explosives during the War years which decreased following its conclusion. CONCLUSION: All age male and female suicide rates decreased in Scotland during World War II. However, once the general background decrease in suicide rates over the whole period is accounted for, the likelihood of suicide among the entire Scottish population during the Second World War was elevated. The overall decrease in suicide rates concealed large increases in younger male age groups during the War years, and an increase in male suicides recorded as due to the use of firearms. We conclude that the effects of war on younger people, reported in recent conflicts in Central Europe, were also seen in Scotland during the Second World War. The results support the findings of studies of recent conflicts which have found a heterogeneous picture with respect to age specific suicide rates during wartime