Seismic risk assessment for developing countries : Pakistan as a case study

Modern Earthquake Risk Assessment (ERA) methods usually require seismo-tectonic information for Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Assessment (PSHA) that may not be readily available in developing countries. To bypass this drawback, this paper presents a practical event-based PSHA method that uses instrumental seismicity, available historical seismicity, as well as limited information on geology and tectonic setting. Historical seismicity is integrated with instrumental seismicity to determine the long-term hazard. The tectonic setting is included by assigning seismic source zones associated with known major faults. Monte Carlo simulations are used to generate earthquake catalogues with randomized key hazard parameters. A case study region in Pakistan is selected to demonstrate the effectiveness of the method. The results indicate that the proposed method produces seismic hazard maps consistent with previous studies, thus being suitable for generating such maps in regions where limited data are available. The PSHA procedure is developed as an integral part of an ERA framework named EQRAM. The framework is also used to determine seismic risk in terms of annual losses for the study region

Spatial distribution of heavy metal and risk indices of water and sediments in the Kunhar River and its tributaries

The present study investigated heavy metal (HM) concentrations in water and sediment of the Kunhar River and its tributaries in Kaghan valley, Northern Pakistan. The highest mean concentration was observed for iron (Fe) 316 ± 47.4 µg/L and the lowest for cadmium (Cd) 2.45 ± 0.31 µg/L in the upstream water of this study. The highest mean hazard quotient value of 0.43 was calculated for children through downstream water consumption. The concentration of HM in water was used for the calculation of HM pollution index and HM evaluation index , showing a low level of contamination. The highest mean sediment concentration was found for Fe was 35500 ± 2700 mg/L and the lowest for Cd was 1.96 ± 0.23 mg/L in upstream of Kunhar River. Pollution quantification factors values were the highest downstream. Statistical analyses revealed that water and sediment contamination of Kunhar River and its tributaries was mainly attributed to geogenic sources