Comparison of temperature indices for three IPCC SRES scenarios based on RegCM simulations for Poland in 2011–2030 period

The regional climate model RegCM3 is used to investigate potential future changes of temperature indices in Poland for the period 2011–2030. The model is forced by ECHAM5/MPI-OM GCM data from World Data Centre (WDCC) database for the 1971–1990 reference period and 2011–2030 projection period under SRES B1, A1B and A2 emission scenarios. Model output statistics methods are used to transform simulated minimum and maximum temperature data into realistic data. Selected indices of temperature extremes and their differences between the scenario simulations and the reference were calculated, for all scenarios, for the entire period and for each season. Results show a mean yearly increase in the number of summer and hot days and a decrease in the number of frost and ice days. Highest decline in the number of frost and ice days in autumn and an increase in spring is noticed. An highest increase in the number of summer and hot days is seen in summer. Future projections of these indices are relevant for studies on climate change impact in agriculture, tourism, health, transportation, road and building infrastructure.This work was carried out as part of the project KLIMAT "Impact of climate change on the society, the environment and the economy (changes, effects and ways of limiting them, conclusions for science and engineering practice and economic planning)". No POIG.01.03.01- 14-011/08 in frames of the Operational Programme Innovative Economy, co-financed by the European Regional Development Fund. Authors thank anonymous reviewers for valuable comments

Strategia energetyki rozproszonej – ścieżka do finalnego dokumentu

Strategia energetyki rozproszonej w Polsce do 2040 roku (SER 2040) jest dokumentem tworzonym w ramach oddolnej inicjatywy wynikającej z celów projektu „Rozwój energetyki rozproszonej w klastrach energii (KlastER)” i nawiązuje do założeń Strategii na rzecz Odpowiedzialnego Rozwoju oraz Polityki energetycznej Polski do 2040 r. (PEP 2040). Przygotowany w okresie 2021–2022 dokument proponuje niezbędne w obszarze energetyki rozproszonej (ER) działania, które wspierają realizację PEP 2040 i wyznaczają ramy transformacji energetycznej w Polsce, jednocześnie uwzględniając najnowsze trendy i wydarzenia, które nastąpiły od momentu przyjęcia PEP 2040. Kluczowym elementem i punktem zwrotnym w procesie prac nad Strategią… było opracowanie analizy SWOT dla ER w obszarach ekonomiczno-finansowym, legislacyjno-regulacyjnym, społeczno-kulturowym i techniczno-technologicznym. Prace przeprowadzono pod nadzorem koordynatorów zespołów roboczych Sieci Kompetencji ds. Energetyki Rozproszonej (SKER). Na podstawie efektów analizy przyjęto, że działania wynikające ze Strategii… powinny być realizowane w trzech głównych obszarach, odpowiadających jej poszczególnym celom: regulacyjnym, technicznym i edukacyjnym

Sling effect in collisions of water droplets in turbulent clouds

We describe and evaluate the contribution of sling effect into the collision rate of the same-size water droplets in turbulent clouds. We show that already for Stokes numbers exceeding 0.2 the sling effect gives a contribution comparable to Saffman-Turner contribution, which may explain why the latter consistently underestimates collision rate (even with the account of preferential concentration).Comment: 7 pages, 6 figures; preprint submitted to Journal of Atmospheric Science

Točnost prognoza temperature zraka dobivenih odabranim kratko- i dugoročnim numeričkim modelima prognoze vremena iznad Poljske

The article discusses the results of air temperature forecasts from four short-term and two long-term forecasts of numerical weather prediction models. The analysis covered the results of model simulations from January 2015 to January 2016 and compared them at 14 meteorological stations in Poland. The comparison was made based on the most commonly used measures for continuous parameters i.e., ME (mean error), MAE (mean absolute error), RMSE (root mean square error), MSE (mean square error), BIAS and Pearson correlation. In the short time horizon, the best results in the context of the MAE, RMSE, MSE and correlation values were obtained by the Unified Model, although the diagnosed differences between the models are small. All models in the 0–72 h projection horizon reached a correlation of 0.95–0.97 and an MAE in the range of 1.5 °C to 2.1 °C. In the case of long-term forecasts, the HIRLAM model was slightly better than the GFS model. Clearly, in both cases, there is a marked decrease in quality after the fourth and in the following forecast lead days.U članku se razmatraju rezultati prognoze temperature zraka pomoću četiri kratkoročna i dva dugoročna numerička modela prognoze vremena. Analiza je obuhvatila rezultate simulacija modela od siječnja 2015. do siječnja 2016., koji su uspoređeni s podacima 14 meteoroloških postaja u Poljskoj. Usporedba je izrađena na temelju najčešće korištenih mjera za kontinuirane parametre, tj ME (srednja pogreška), MAE (srednja apsolutna pogreška), RMSE (korijen srednje kvadratne pogreške), MSE (srednja kvadratna pogreška), BIAS i Pearsonova korelacija. Za ovako kratak vremenski interval, u kontekstu vrijednosti MAE, RMSE, MSE i korelacije, najbolji rezultati dobiveni su ujedinjenim modelom, iako su utvrđene razlike među modelima male. Svi modeli su u prognostičkom vremenu od 0 do 72 h dostigli korelaciju od 0,95 do 0,97 i MAE u rasponu od 1,5 °C do 2,1 °C. U slučaju dugoročnih prognoza model HIRLAM bio je nešto bolji od GFS modela. Jasno je da u oba slučaja dolazi do znatnog smanjenja kvalitete nakon četvrtog i sljedećih prognostičkih dana

Period Integrals of CY and General Type Complete Intersections

We develop a global Poincar\'e residue formula to study period integrals of families of complex manifolds. For any compact complex manifold $X$ equipped with a linear system $V^*$ of generically smooth CY hypersurfaces, the formula expresses period integrals in terms of a canonical global meromorphic top form on $X$. Two important ingredients of our construction are the notion of a CY principal bundle, and a classification of such rank one bundles. We also generalize our construction to CY and general type complete intersections. When $X$ is an algebraic manifold having a sufficiently large automorphism group $G$ and $V^*$ is a linear representation of $G$, we construct a holonomic D-module that governs the period integrals. The construction is based in part on the theory of tautological systems we have developed in the paper \cite{LSY1}, joint with R. Song. The approach allows us to explicitly describe a Picard-Fuchs type system for complete intersection varieties of general types, as well as CY, in any Fano variety, and in a homogeneous space in particular. In addition, the approach provides a new perspective of old examples such as CY complete intersections in a toric variety or partial flag variety.Comment: An erratum is included to correct Theorem 3.12 (Uniqueness of CY structure

O harmonijny rozwój człowieka. Myśl pedagogiczna Profesora Andrzeja Jaczewskiego

Z wprowadzenia: "Andrzej Jaczewski, Profesor Honorowy Krakowskiej Akademii im. Andrzeja Frycza Modrzewskiego w Krakowie, uczony, który we wrześniu b.r. ukończy 90. rok życia, to najstarszy i jeden z nielicznych obecnie autorytetów naukowych w dziedzinie badań nad rozwojem seksualnym dzieci i młodzieży. Jego działalność sytuuje się na pograniczu nauk medycznych i pedagogicznych."(...

Reproductive biology of the pampas deer (Ozotoceros bezoarticus): a review

The pampas deer (Ozotoceros bezoarticus) is a South American grazing deer which is in extreme danger of extinction. Very little is known about the biology of the pampas deer. Moreover, most information has not been published in peer-reviewed scientific journals, and is only available in local publications, theses, etc. Therefore, our aim was to update and summarize the available information regarding the reproductive biology of the pampas deer. Moreover, in most sections, we have also included new, unpublished information. Detailed descriptions are provided of the anatomy of both the female and the male reproductive tract, puberty onset, the oestrous cycle and gestational length. Birthing and the early postpartum period are described, as are maternal behaviour and early fawn development, seasonal distribution of births, seasonal changes in male reproduction and antler cycle, reproductive behaviour, semen collection, and cryopreservation. Finally, an overview is given and future directions of research are proposed