Choice of distance matrices in cluster analysis: defining regions

Cluster analysis is a technique frequently used in climatology for grouping cases to define classes (synoptic types or climate regimes, for example), or for grouping stations or grid points to define regions. Cluster analysis is based on some form of distance matrix, and the most commonly used metric in the climatological field has been Euclidean distances. Arguments for the use of Euclidean distances are in some ways similar to arguments for using a covariance matrix in principal components analysis: the use of the metric is valid if all data are measured on the same scale. When using Euclidean distances for cluster analysis, however, the additional assumption is made that all the variables are uncorrelated, and this assumption is frequently ignored. Two possible methods of dealing with the correlation between the variables are considered: performing a principal components analysis before calculating Euclidean distances, and calculating Mahalanobis distances using the raw data. Under certain conditions calculating Mahalanobis distances is equivalent to calculating Euclidean distances from the principal components. It is suggested that when cluster analysis is used for defining regions, Mahalanobis distances are inappropriate, and that Euclidean distances should be calculated using the unstandardized principal component scores based on only the major principal components

Modernizing State Public Health Enabling Statutes to Reflect the Mission and Essential Services of Public Health

It is unclear whether efforts of the past decade to modernize state public health statutes have succeeded in codifying into state law the currently understood mission and essential services of public health. Although many state health agencies may be operating in a manner consistent with these principles, their codification in state law is crucial for the sustainability of agency efforts in disease prevention and health promotion. This research examines the 50 state public health enabling statutes for their correspondence with the 6 mission statements and the 10 essential services of public health described in Public Health in America. This analysis finds that modernization efforts have not been universally effective in ensuring that the legislative basis of public health is commensurate with the accepted scope of authority necessary to support health agency performance. Given current imperatives for law modernization in public health, this analysis highlights the importance of model statutory language in facilitating the codification of the mission and essential services of public health in state law. As a result, this research provides the practice community with a research base to facilitate statutory reform and develops a framework for future scholarship on the role of law as a determinant of the public’s health

Conditional Exceedance Probabilities

Probabilistic forecasts of variables measured on a categorical or ordinal scale, such as precipitation occurrence or temperatures exceeding a threshold, are typically verified by comparing the relative frequency with which the target event occurs given different levels of forecast confidence. The degree to which this conditional (on the forecast probability) relative frequency of an event corresponds with the actual forecast probabilities is known as reliability, or calibration. Forecast reliability for binary variables can be measured using the Murphy decomposition of the (half) Brier score, and can be presented graphically using reliability and attributes diagrams. For forecasts of variables on continuous scales, however, an alternative measure of reliability is required. The binned probability histogram and the reliability component of the continuous ranked probability score have been proposed as appropriate verification procedures in this context, but are subject to some limitations. A procedure is proposed that is applicable in the context of forecast ensembles and is an extension of the binned probability histogram. Individual ensemble members are treated as estimates of quantiles of the forecast distribution, and the conditional probability that the observed precipitation, for example, exceeds the amount forecast [the conditional exceedance probability (CEP)] is calculated. Generalized linear regression is used to estimate these conditional probabilities. A diagram showing the CEPs for ranked ensemble members is suggested as a useful method for indicating reliability when forecasts are on a continuous scale, and various statistical tests are suggested for quantifying the reliability

‘Bunkering down’: How one community is tightening social-ecological network structures in the face of global change

Complex networks of relationships among and between people and nature (social-ecological networks) play an important role in sustainability; yet, we have limited empirical understanding of their temporal dynamics. We empirically examine the evolution of a social-ecological network in a common-pool resource system faced with escalating social and environmental change over the past two decades. We first draw on quantitative and qualitative data collected between 2002 and 2018 in a Papua New Guinean reef fishing community to provide contextual evidence regarding the extent of social and environmental change being experienced. We then develop a temporal multilevel exponential random graph model using complete social-ecological network data, collected in 2016 and 2018, to test key hypotheses regarding how fishing households have adapted their social ties in this context of change given their relationships with reef resources (i.e. social-ecological ties). Specifically, we hypothesized that households will increasingly form tight-knit, bonding social and social-ecological network structures (H1 and H3, respectively) with similar others (H2), and that they will seek out resourceful actors with specialized knowledge that can promote learning and spur innovation (H4). Our results depict a community that is largely ‘bunkering down’ and looking inward in response to mounting risk to resource-dependent livelihoods and a breakdown in the collaborative processes that traditionally sustained them. Community members are increasingly choosing to interact with others more like themselves (H2), with friends of friends (H1), and with those connected to interdependent ecological resources (H3)—in other words, they are showing a strong, increasing preference for forming bonding social-ecological network structures and interacting with like-minded, similar others. We did not find strong support for H4. Bonding network structures may decrease the risk associated with unmonitored behaviour and help to build trust, thereby increasing the probability of sustaining cooperation over time. Yet, increasing homophily and bonding ties can stifle innovation, reducing the ability to adapt to changing conditions. It can also lead to clustering, creating fault lines in the network, which can negatively impact the community\u27s ability to mobilize and agree on/enforce social norms, which are key for managing common resources

Bodyweight Perceptions among Texas Women: The Effects of Religion, Race/Ethnicity, and Citizenship Status

Despite previous work exploring linkages between religious participation and health, little research has looked at the role of religion in affecting bodyweight perceptions. Using the theoretical model developed by Levin et al. (Sociol Q 36(1):157–173, 1995) on the multidimensionality of religious participation, we develop several hypotheses and test them by using data from the 2004 Survey of Texas Adults. We estimate multinomial logistic regression models to determine the relative risk of women perceiving themselves as overweight. Results indicate that religious attendance lowers risk of women perceiving themselves as very overweight. Citizenship status was an important factor for Latinas, with noncitizens being less likely to see themselves as overweight. We also test interaction effects between religion and race. Religious attendance and prayer have a moderating effect among Latina non-citizens so that among these women, attendance and prayer intensify perceptions of feeling less overweight when compared to their white counterparts. Among African American women, the effect of increased church attendance leads to perceptions of being overweight. Prayer is also a correlate of overweight perceptions but only among African American women. We close with a discussion that highlights key implications from our findings, note study limitations, and several promising avenues for future research

Support and Assessment for Fall Emergency Referrals (SAFER 1) trial protocol. Computerised on-scene decision support for emergency ambulance staff to assess and plan care for older people who have fallen: evaluation of costs and benefits using a pragmatic cluster randomised trial

Background: Many emergency ambulance calls are for older people who have fallen. As half of them are left at home, a community-based response may often be more appropriate than hospital attendance. The SAFER 1 trial will assess the costs and benefits of a new healthcare technology - hand-held computers with computerised clinical decision support (CCDS) software - to help paramedics decide who needs hospital attendance, and who can be safely left at home with referral to community falls services. Methods/Design: Pragmatic cluster randomised trial with a qualitative component. We shall allocate 72 paramedics ('clusters') at random between receiving the intervention and a control group delivering care as usual, of whom we expect 60 to complete the trial. Patients are eligible if they are aged 65 or older, live in the study area but not in residential care, and are attended by a study paramedic following an emergency call for a fall. Seven to 10 days after the index fall we shall offer patients the opportunity to opt out of further follow up. Continuing participants will receive questionnaires after one and 6 months, and we shall monitor their routine clinical data for 6 months. We shall interview 20 of these patients in depth. We shall conduct focus groups or semi-structured interviews with paramedics and other stakeholders. The primary outcome is the interval to the first subsequent reported fall (or death). We shall analyse this and other measures of outcome, process and cost by 'intention to treat'. We shall analyse qualitative data thematically. Discussion: Since the SAFER 1 trial received funding in August 2006, implementation has come to terms with ambulance service reorganisation and a new national electronic patient record in England. In response to these hurdles the research team has adapted the research design, including aspects of the intervention, to meet the needs of the ambulance services. In conclusion this complex emergency care trial will provide rigorous evidence on the clinical and cost effectiveness of CCDS for paramedics in the care of older people who have fallen

Erratum: Author Correction: Identification of genes required for eye development by high-throughput screening of mouse knockouts.

[This corrects the article DOI: 10.1038/s42003-018-0226-0.]

Attributes of climate resilience in fisheries: from theory to practice

In a changing climate, there is an imperative to build coupled social-ecological systems—including fisheries—that can withstand or adapt to climate stressors. Although resilience theory identifies system attributes that supposedly confer resilience, these attributes have rarely been clearly defined, mechanistically explained, nor tested and applied to inform fisheries governance. Here, we develop and apply a comprehensive resilience framework to examine fishery systems across (a) ecological, (b) socio-economic and (c) governance dimensions using five resilience domains: assets, flexibility, organization, learning and agency. We distil and define 38 attributes that confer climate resilience from a coupled literature- and expert-driven approach, describe how they apply to fisheries and provide illustrative examples of resilience attributes in action. Our synthesis highlights that the directionality and mechanism of these attributes depend on the specific context, capacities, and scale of the focal fishery system and associated stressors, and we find evidence of interdependencies among attributes. Overall, however, we find few studies that test resilience attributes in fisheries across all parts of the system, with most examples focussing on the ecological dimension. As such, meaningful quantification of the attributes’ contributions to resilience remains a challenge. Our synthesis and holistic framework represent a starting point for critical application of resilience concepts to fisheries social-ecological systems