Implementing informative priors for heterogeneity in meta-analysis using meta-regression and pseudo data.

Many meta-analyses combine results from only a small number of studies, a situation in which the between-study variance is imprecisely estimated when standard methods are applied. Bayesian meta-analysis allows incorporation of external evidence on heterogeneity, providing the potential for more robust inference on the effect size of interest. We present a method for performing Bayesian meta-analysis using data augmentation, in which we represent an informative conjugate prior for between-study variance by pseudo data and use meta-regression for estimation. To assist in this, we derive predictive inverse-gamma distributions for the between-study variance expected in future meta-analyses. These may serve as priors for heterogeneity in new meta-analyses. In a simulation study, we compare approximate Bayesian methods using meta-regression and pseudo data against fully Bayesian approaches based on importance sampling techniques and Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC). We compare the frequentist properties of these Bayesian methods with those of the commonly used frequentist DerSimonian and Laird procedure. The method is implemented in standard statistical software and provides a less complex alternative to standard MCMC approaches. An importance sampling approach produces almost identical results to standard MCMC approaches, and results obtained through meta-regression and pseudo data are very similar. On average, data augmentation provides closer results to MCMC, if implemented using restricted maximum likelihood estimation rather than DerSimonian and Laird or maximum likelihood estimation. The methods are applied to real datasets, and an extension to network meta-analysis is described. The proposed method facilitates Bayesian meta-analysis in a way that is accessible to applied researchers. © 2016 The Authors. Statistics in Medicine Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd

Balanced electric-magnetic dihole in Kaluza-Klein theory

We present a four-dimensional double-black-hole (or dihole) solution in Kaluza-Klein theory, describing a superposition of an electrically charged and a magnetically charged black hole. This system can be balanced for appropriately chosen parameters, and the resulting space-time is completely regular on and outside the event horizons. This solution was constructed using the inverse-scattering method in five-dimensional vacuum gravity, in which it describes a rotating black ring surrounding a static black hole on a Taub-NUT background space. Various properties of this solution are studied, from both a four- and five-dimensional perspective.Comment: 33 pages, 6 figures; v2: expanded discussion of phase space, published versio

Spectral reflectance of whale skin above the sea surface: a proposed measurement protocol

Great whales have been detected using very-high-resolution satellite imagery, suggesting this technology could be used to monitor whales in remote areas. However, the application of this method to whale studies is at an early developmental stage and several technical factors need to be addressed, including capacity for species differentiation and the maximum depth of detection in the water column. Both require knowledge of the spectral reflectance of the various whale species just above the sea surface, as when whales bodies break the surface of the water to breath, log or breach, there is, theoretically, no sea water between the whale’s skin and the satellite sensor. Here we tested whether such reflectance could be measured on dead whale tissue. We measured the spectral reflectance of fresh integument collected during the bowhead subsistence harvest, and of thawed integument samples from various species obtained following strandings and stored at -20°C. We show that fresh and thawed samples of whale integument have different spectral properties. The reflectance of fresh samples was higher than the reflectance of thawed samples, as integument appears to darken after death and with time, even under frozen conditions. In this study, we present the first whale reflectance estimates (without the influence of sea water and for dead tissue). These provide a baseline for additional work, needed to advance the use of satellite imagery to monitor whales and facilitate their conservation.MAVA Foundation, B B Roberts Fund, Cambridge Philosophical Society, Prescott Stranding Grants

Home parenteral nutrition with an omega-3-fatty-acid-enriched MCT/LCT lipid emulsion in patients with chronic intestinal failure (the HOME study):study protocol for a randomized, controlled, multicenter, international clinical trial

BACKGROUND: Home parenteral nutrition (HPN) is a life-preserving therapy for patients with chronic intestinal failure (CIF) indicated for patients who cannot achieve their nutritional requirements by enteral intake. Intravenously administered lipid emulsions (ILEs) are an essential component of HPN, providing energy and essential fatty acids, but can become a risk factor for intestinal-failure-associated liver disease (IFALD). In HPN patients, major effort is taken in the prevention of IFALD. Novel ILEs containing a proportion of omega-3 polyunsaturated fatty acids (n-3 PUFA) could be of benefit, but the data on the use of n-3 PUFA in HPN patients are still limited. METHODS/DESIGN: The HOME study is a prospective, randomized, controlled, double-blind, multicenter, international clinical trial conducted in European hospitals that treat HPN patients. A total of 160 patients (80 per group) will be randomly assigned to receive the n-3 PUFA-enriched medium/long-chain triglyceride (MCT/LCT) ILE (Lipidem/Lipoplus® 200 mg/ml, B. Braun Melsungen AG) or the MCT/LCT ILE (Lipofundin® MCT/LCT/Medialipide® 20%, B. Braun Melsungen AG) for a projected period of 8 weeks. The primary endpoint is the combined change of liver function parameters (total bilirubin, aspartate transaminase and alanine transaminase) from baseline to final visit. Secondary objectives are the further evaluation of the safety and tolerability as well as the efficacy of the ILEs. DISCUSSION: Currently, there are only very few randomized controlled trials (RCTs) investigating the use of ILEs in HPN, and there are very few data at all on the use of n-3 PUFAs. The working hypothesis is that n-3 PUFA-enriched ILE is safe and well-tolerated especially with regard to liver function in patients requiring HPN. The expected outcome is to provide reliable data to support this thesis thanks to a considerable number of CIF patients, consequently to broaden the present evidence on the use of ILEs in HPN. TRIAL REGISTRATION: ClinicalTrials.gov, ID: NCT03282955. Registered on 14 September 2017

Abdominal functional electrical stimulation to improve respiratory function after spinal cord injury: a systematic review and meta-analysis

Objectives: Abdominal functional electrical stimulation (abdominal FES) is the application of a train of electrical pulses to the abdominal muscles, causing them to contract. Abdominal FES has been used as a neuroprosthesis to acutely augment respiratory function and as a rehabilitation tool to achieve a chronic increase in respiratory function after abdominal FES training, primarily focusing on patients with spinal cord injury (SCI). This study aimed to review the evidence surrounding the use of abdominal FES to improve respiratory function in both an acute and chronic manner after SCI. Settings: A systematic search was performed on PubMed, with studies included if they applied abdominal FES to improve respiratory function in patients with SCI. Methods: Fourteen studies met the inclusion criteria (10 acute and 4 chronic). Low participant numbers and heterogeneity across studies reduced the power of the meta-analysis. Despite this, abdominal FES was found to cause a significant acute improvement in cough peak flow, whereas forced exhaled volume in 1 s approached significance. A significant chronic increase in unassisted vital capacity, forced vital capacity and peak expiratory flow was found after abdominal FES training compared with baseline. Conclusions: This systematic review suggests that abdominal FES is an effective technique for improving respiratory function in both an acute and chronic manner after SCI. However, further randomised controlled trials, with larger participant numbers and standardised protocols, are needed to fully establish the clinical efficacy of this technique

Use of mitogenic cascade blockers for treatment of C-Raf induced lung adenoma in vivo: CI-1040 strongly reduces growth and improves lung structure

BACKGROUND: Signaling networks promoting cell growth and proliferation are frequently deregulated in cancer. Tumors often are highly dependent on such signaling pathways and may become hypersensitive to downregulation of key components within these signaling cascades. The classical mitogenic cascade transmits stimuli from growth factor receptors via Ras, Raf, MEK and ERK to the cell nucleus and provides attractive molecular targets for cancer treatment. For example, Ras and Raf kinase inhibitors are already in a number of ongoing phase II and phase III clinical trials. In this study the effect of the Raf kinase inhibitor BAY 43-9006 and of the MEK inhibitor CI-1040 (PD184352) on a Raf dependent lung tumor mouse model was analyzed in detail. METHODS: We have generated a lung cancer mouse model by targeting constitutively active C-Raf kinase to the lung. These mice develop adenomas within 4 months of life. At this time-point they received daily intraperitoneal injections of either 100 mg/kg BAY 43-9006 or CI-1040 for additional 21 days. Thereafter, lungs were isolated and the following parameters were analyzed using histology and immunohistochemistry: overall lung structure, frequency of adenoma foci, proliferation rate, ERK activity, caspase-3 activation, and lung differentiation. RESULTS: Both inhibitors were equally effective in vitro using a sensitive Raf/MEK/ERK ELISA. In vivo, the systemic administration of the MEK inhibitor CI-1040 reduced adenoma formation to a third and significantly restored lung structure. The proliferation rate of lung cells of mice treated with CL-1040 was decreased without any obvious effects on differentiation of pneumocytes. In contrast, the Raf inhibitor BAY 43-9006 did not influence adenoma formation in vivo. CONCLUSION: The MEK inhibitor CI-1040 may be used for the treatment of Ras and/or Raf-dependent human malignancies

Body Adiposity Index Utilization in a Spanish Mediterranean Population: Comparison with the Body Mass Index

BACKGROUND: Body fat content and fat distribution or adiposity are indicators of health risk. Several techniques have been developed and used for assessing and/or determining body fat or adiposity. Recently, the Body Adiposity Index (BAI), which is based on the measurements of hip circumference and height, has been suggested as a new index of adiposity. The aim of the study was to compare BAI and BMI measurements in a Caucasian population from a European Mediterranean area and to assess the usefulness of the BAI in men and women separately. RESEARCH METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: A descriptive cross-sectional study was conducted in a Caucasian population. All participants in the study (1,726 women and 1,474 men, mean age 39.2 years, SD 10.8) were from Mallorca (Spain). Anthropometric data, including percentage of body fat mass obtained by Bioelectrical Impedance Analysis, were determined. Body Mass Index (BMI) and BAI were calculated. BAI and BMI showed a good correlation (r = 0.64, p<0.001). A strong correlation was also found between BAI and the % fat determined using BIA (r = 0.74, p<0.001), which is even stronger than the one between BMI and % fat (r = 0.54, p<0.001). However, the ROC curve analysis showed a higher accuracy for BMI than for the BAI regarding the discriminatory capacity. CONCLUSION: The BAI could be a good tool to measure adiposity due, at least in part, to the advantages over other more complex mechanical or electrical systems. Probably, the most important advantage of BAI over BMI is that weight is not needed. However, in general it seems that the BAI does not overcome the limitations of BMI