Basin bifurcations, oscillatory instability and rate-induced thresholds for AMOC in a global oceanic box model

The Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) transports substantial amounts of heat into the North Atlantic sector, and hence is of very high importance in regional climate projections. The AMOC has been observed to show multi-stability across a range of models of different complexity. The simplest models find a bifurcation associated with the AMOC `on' state losing stability that is a saddle node. Here we study a physically derived global oceanic model of Wood {\em et al} with five boxes, that is calibrated to runs of the FAMOUS coupled atmosphere-ocean general circulation model. We find the loss of stability of the `on' state is due to a subcritical Hopf for parameters from both pre-industrial and doubled CO${}_2$ atmospheres. This loss of stability via subcritical Hopf bifurcation has important consequences for the behaviour of the basin of attraction close to bifurcation. We consider various time-dependent profiles of freshwater forcing to the system, and find that rate-induced thresholds for tipping can appear, even for perturbations that do not cross the bifurcation. Understanding how such state transitions occur is important in determining allowable safe climate change mitigation pathways to avoid collapse of the AMOC.Comment: 18 figure

Task cues lead to item-level backward inhibition with univalent stimuli and responses

Funding This research received no specific grant from any funding agency in the public, commercial, or not-for-profit sectors.Peer reviewedPostprin

Cellular taxonomy and spatial organization of the murine ventral posterior hypothalamus.

The ventral posterior hypothalamus (VPH) is an anatomically complex brain region implicated in arousal, reproduction, energy balance, and memory processing. However, neuronal cell type diversity within the VPH is poorly understood, an impediment to deconstructing the roles of distinct VPH circuits in physiology and behavior. To address this question, we employed a droplet-based single-cell RNA sequencing (scRNA-seq) approach to systematically classify molecularly distinct cell populations in the mouse VPH. Analysis of \u3e16,000 single cells revealed 20 neuronal and 18 non-neuronal cell populations, defined by suites of discriminatory markers. We validated differentially expressed genes in selected neuronal populations through fluorescence in situ hybridization (FISH). Focusing on the mammillary bodies (MB), we discovered transcriptionally-distinct clusters that exhibit neuroanatomical parcellation within MB subdivisions and topographic projections to the thalamus. This single-cell transcriptomic atlas of VPH cell types provides a resource for interrogating the circuit-level mechanisms underlying the diverse functions of VPH circuits

Estimating the incidence of acute infectious intestinal disease in the community in the UK:A retrospective telephone survey

Objectives: To estimate the burden of intestinal infectious disease (IID) in the UK and determine whether disease burden estimations using a retrospective study design differ from those using a prospective study design. Design/Setting: A retrospective telephone survey undertaken in each of the four countries comprising the United Kingdom. Participants were randomly asked about illness either in the past 7 or 28 days. Participants: 14,813 individuals for all of whom we had a legible recording of their agreement to participate Outcomes: Self-reported IID, defined as loose stools or clinically significant vomiting lasting less than two weeks, in the absence of a known non-infectious cause. Results: The rate of self-reported IID varied substantially depending on whether asked for illness in the previous 7 or 28 days. After standardising for age and sex, and adjusting for the number of interviews completed each month and the relative size of each UK country, the estimated rate of IID in the 7-day recall group was 1,530 cases per 1,000 person-years (95% CI: 1135 – 2113), while in the 28-day recall group it was 533 cases per 1,000 person-years (95% CI: 377 – 778). There was no significant variation in rates between the four countries. Rates in this study were also higher than in a related prospective study undertaken at the same time. Conclusions: The estimated burden of disease from IID varied dramatically depending on study design. Retrospective studies of IID give higher estimates of disease burden than prospective studies. Of retrospective studies longer recall periods give lower estimated rates than studies with short recall periods. Caution needs to be exercised when comparing studies of self-reported IID as small changes in study design or case definition can markedly affect estimated rates