Global patient outcomes after elective surgery: prospective cohort study in 27 low-, middle- and high-income countries.

BACKGROUND: As global initiatives increase patient access to surgical treatments, there remains a need to understand the adverse effects of surgery and define appropriate levels of perioperative care. METHODS: We designed a prospective international 7-day cohort study of outcomes following elective adult inpatient surgery in 27 countries. The primary outcome was in-hospital complications. Secondary outcomes were death following a complication (failure to rescue) and death in hospital. Process measures were admission to critical care immediately after surgery or to treat a complication and duration of hospital stay. A single definition of critical care was used for all countries. RESULTS: A total of 474 hospitals in 19 high-, 7 middle- and 1 low-income country were included in the primary analysis. Data included 44 814 patients with a median hospital stay of 4 (range 2-7) days. A total of 7508 patients (16.8%) developed one or more postoperative complication and 207 died (0.5%). The overall mortality among patients who developed complications was 2.8%. Mortality following complications ranged from 2.4% for pulmonary embolism to 43.9% for cardiac arrest. A total of 4360 (9.7%) patients were admitted to a critical care unit as routine immediately after surgery, of whom 2198 (50.4%) developed a complication, with 105 (2.4%) deaths. A total of 1233 patients (16.4%) were admitted to a critical care unit to treat complications, with 119 (9.7%) deaths. Despite lower baseline risk, outcomes were similar in low- and middle-income compared with high-income countries. CONCLUSIONS: Poor patient outcomes are common after inpatient surgery. Global initiatives to increase access to surgical treatments should also address the need for safe perioperative care. STUDY REGISTRATION: ISRCTN5181700

Promising biomarkers for the prediction of catheter-related venous thromboembolism in hospitalized children: An exploratory study

BACKGROUND: Pediatric venous thromboembolism (VTE) has increased over the past 10 years, with central venous catheters (CVC) being the strongest risk factor. Current tools are not sufficient to predict VTE risk. The utility of biomarkers in predicting CVC-related VTE has been minimally explored. Our objective is to determine the utility of microparticles (MPs), factor VIII (FVIII) activity, and thrombin generation (TG) in prospectively predicting VTE occurrence in hospitalized children with CVCs. PROCEDURE: In this nested case-control pilot study, consecutive hospitalized children needing CVC placement (1 month to 21 years) were enrolled. Venous samples were collected prior to or within 24 h of CVC placement. MPs were measured using factor Xa initiated clot-based assay. FVIII was measured using a one-stage clot-based assay. TG was measured using calibrated automated thrombogram. RESULTS: There were three CVC-related VTE events (7%) in our cohort of 42 subjects. Xa clotting time (XaCT) ratio was lower (0.68 ± 0.07 vs 0.95 ± 0.21, P = .4), while FVIII (461 ± 120 vs 267 ± 130, P = .02), peak thrombin (418 ± 89 vs 211 ± 101, P = .001), endogenous thrombin potential (ETP) (1828 ± 485 vs 1282 ± 394, P = .03), and velocity index (VI) (182 ± 28 vs 75 ± 53, P = .001) were higher in subjects with CVC-related VTE compared to those without CVC-related VTE. Sensitivity/specificity analysis revealed optimal cutoff values for XaCT ratio (0.75), FVIII (370), ETP (1680), peak (315), and VI (130), with receiver operating characteristic area under the curve values \u3e0.9. CONCLUSION: MPs, FVIII, and TG can potentially predict pediatric CVC-related VTE in a prospective fashion. Stratification according to VTE risk may aid in guiding preventative efforts in future studies

Dynamic Portfolio Selection Under Ambiguity in the epsilonepsilon -Contaminated Binomial Model

Investors often need to look for an optimal portfolio acting under ambiguity, as they may not be able to single out a unique realworld probability measure. In this paper a discrete-time dynamic portfolio selection problem is studied, referring to an -contaminated binomial market model and assuming investors’ preferences are consistent with the Choquet expected utility theory. We formulate the portfolio selection problem for a CRRA utility function in terms of the terminal wealth, and provide a characterization of the optimal solution in the case stock price returns are uniformly distributed. In this case, we further investigate the effect of the contamination parameter epsilon on the optimal portfolio

Coherent conditional plausibility: A tool for handling fuzziness and uncertainty under partial information

Decision processes under partial informan need to be studied. The phenomena cannot be' manager offre by probability measures, so no-additive measures are considered and inferential processes are studied