A model of population dynamics of TB in a prison system and application to South Africa

BACKGROUND: Tuberculosis (TB) continues to spread in South African prisons in particular, as prisons are over-capacitated and have poor ventilation. The awaiting trial detainees are not screened on admission and are at high risk of getting infected with TB. RESULTS: We propose a compartmental model to describe the population dynamics of TB disease in prisons. Our model considers the inflow of susceptible, exposed and TB infectives into the prison population. Removal of individuals out of the prison population can be either by death or by being released from prison, as compared to a general population in which removal is only by death. We describe conditions, including non-inflow of infectives into the prison, which will ensure that TB can be eradicated from the prison population. The model is calibrated for the South African prison system, by using data in existing literature. The model can be used to make quantitative projections of TB prevalence and to measure the effect of interventions. Illustrative simulations in this regard are presented. The model can be used for other prison populations too, if data is available to calculate the model parameters. CONCLUSIONS: Various simulations generated with our model serve to illustrate how it can be utilized in making future projections of the levels of prevalence of TB, and to quantify the effect of interventions such as screening, treatment or reduction of transmission parameter values through improved living conditions for inmates. This makes it particularly useful as there are various targets set by the World Health Organization and by governments, for reduction of TB prevalence and ultimately its eradication. Towards eradication of TB from a prison system, the theorem on global stability of the disease-free state is a useful indicator

Comparison of electromagnetic and nuclear dissociation of 17Ne^{17}\mathrm{Ne}

The Borromean drip-line nucleus ¹⁷Ne has been suggested to possess a two-proton halo structure in its ground state. In the astrophysical rp-process, where the two-proton capture reaction ¹⁵O(2p,γ) ¹⁷Ne plays an important role, the calculated reaction rate differs by several orders of magnitude between different theoretical approaches. To add to the understanding of the ¹⁷Ne structure we have studied nuclear and electromagnetic dissociation. A 500 MeV/u¹⁷Ne beam was directed toward lead, carbon, and polyethylene targets. Oxygen isotopes in the final state were measured in coincidence with one or two protons. Different reaction branches in the dissociation of ¹⁷Ne were disentangled. The relative populations of s and d states in ¹⁶F were determined for light and heavy targets. The differential cross section for electromagnetic dissociation (EMD) shows a continuous internal energy spectrum in the three-body system ¹⁵O + 2p. The ¹⁷Ne EMD data were compared to current theoretical models. None of them, however, yields satisfactory agreement with the experimental data presented here. These new data may facilitate future development of adequate models for description of the fragmentation process

Estimating the burden of antimicrobial resistance: a systematic literature review.

Background: Accurate estimates of the burden of antimicrobial resistance (AMR) are needed to establish the magnitude of this global threat in terms of both health and cost, and to paramaterise cost-effectiveness evaluations of interventions aiming to tackle the problem. This review aimed to establish the alternative methodologies used in estimating AMR burden in order to appraise the current evidence base. Methods: MEDLINE, EMBASE, Scopus, EconLit, PubMed and grey literature were searched. English language studies evaluating the impact of AMR (from any microbe) on patient, payer/provider and economic burden published between January 2013 and December 2015 were included. Independent screening of title/abstracts followed by full texts was performed using pre-specified criteria. A study quality score (from zero to one) was derived using Newcastle-Ottawa and Philips checklists. Extracted study data were used to compare study method and resulting burden estimate, according to perspective. Monetary costs were converted into 2013 USD. Results: Out of 5187 unique retrievals, 214 studies were included. One hundred eighty-seven studies estimated patient health, 75 studies estimated payer/provider and 11 studies estimated economic burden. 64% of included studies were single centre. The majority of studies estimating patient or provider/payer burden used regression techniques. 48% of studies estimating mortality burden found a significant impact from resistance, excess healthcare system costs ranged from non-significance to $1 billion per year, whilst economic burden ranged from$21,832 per case to over $3 trillion in GDP loss. Median quality scores (interquartile range) for patient, payer/provider and economic burden studies were 0.67 (0.56-0.67), 0.56 (0.46-0.67) and 0.53 (0.44-0.60) respectively. Conclusions: This study highlights what methodological assumptions and biases can occur dependent on chosen outcome and perspective. Currently, there is considerable variability in burden estimates, which can lead in-turn to inaccurate intervention evaluations and poor policy/investment decisions. Future research should utilise the recommendations presented in this review. Trial registration: This systematic review is registered with PROSPERO (PROSPERO CRD42016037510)

Investigation of the Dipole Response in Exotic Nuclei-Experiments at the LAND-(RB)-B-3 Setup

We present experimental results on the electromagnetic excitation of neutron-rich nickel isotopes, making use of the (RB)-B-3-LAND setup at GSI. Exotic beams were produced at approximately 500 MeV/u and their reactions were studied in inverse kinematics. Integral cross sections for Ni-58 are discussed and compared to previous data, providing a validation of our experimental method. The El excitation-energy distribution of the unstable Ni-68 is presented as well, showing an excess in cross section in the 1n decay channel when compared only with a typical Giant Dipole Resonance

Unveiling the Two-Proton Halo Character of 17Ne: Exclusive Measurement of Quasi-free Proton-Knockout Reactions

The proton drip-line nucleus 17Ne is investigated experimentally in order to determine its two-proton halo character. A fully exclusive measurement of the 17Ne(p,2p)16F->15O+p quasi-free one-proton knockout reaction has been performed at GSI at around 500 MeV/nucleon beam energy. All particles resulting from the scattering process have been detected. The relevant reconstructed quantities are the angles of the two protons scattered in quasi-elastic kinematics, the decay of 16F into 15O (including gamma decays from excited states) and a proton, as well as the 15O+p relative-energy spectrum and the 16F momentum distributions. The latter two quantities allow an independent and consistent determination of the ratio of l=0 and l=2 motion of the valence protons in 17Ne. With a resulting relatively small l=0 component of only around 35(3)%, it is concluded that 17Ne exhibits a rather modest halo character only. The quantitative agreement of the two values deduced from the energy spectrum and the momentum distributions supports the theoretical treatment of the calculation of momentum distributions after quasi-free knockout reactions at high energies by taking into account distortions based on the Glauber theory. Moreover, the experimental data allow the separation of valence-proton knockout and knockout from the 15O core. The latter process contributes with 11.8(3.1) mb around 40% to the total proton-knockout cross section of 30.3(2.3) mb, which explains previously reported contradicting conclusions derived from inclusive cross sections