Complexity is costly: A meta-analysis of parametric and non-parametric methods for short-term population forecasting

Short-term forecasts based on time series of counts or survey data are widely used in population biology to provide advice concerning the management, harvest and conservation of natural populations. A common approach to produce these forecasts uses time-series models, of different types, fit to time series of counts. Similar time-series models are used in many other disciplines, however relative to the data available in these other disciplines, population data are often unusually short and noisy and models that perform well for data from other disciplines may not be appropriate for population data. In order to study the performance of time-series forecasting models for natural animal population data, we assembled 2379 time series of vertebrate population indices from actual surveys. Our data were comprised of three vastly different types: highly variable (marine fish productivity), strongly cyclic (adult salmon counts), and small variance but long-memory (bird and mammal counts). We tested the predictive performance of 49 different forecasting models grouped into three broad classes: autoregressive time-series models, non-linear regression-type models and non-parametric time-series models. Low-dimensional parametric autoregressive models gave the most accurate forecasts across a wide range of taxa; the most accurate model was one that simply treated the most recent observation as the forecast. More complex parametric and non-parametric models performed worse, except when applied to highly cyclic species. Across taxa, certain life history characteristics were correlated with lower forecast error; specifically, we found that better forecasts were correlated with attributes of slow growing species: large maximum age and size for fishes and high trophic level for birds. © 2014 Nordic Society Oikos

The Impact of Global Warming and Anoxia on Marine Benthic Community Dynamics: an Example from the Toarcian (Early Jurassic)

The Pliensbachian-Toarcian (Early Jurassic) fossil record is an archive of natural data of benthic community response to global warming and marine long-term hypoxia and anoxia. In the early Toarcian mean temperatures increased by the same order of magnitude as that predicted for the near future; laminated, organic-rich, black shales were deposited in many shallow water epicontinental basins; and a biotic crisis occurred in the marine realm, with the extinction of approximately 5% of families and 26% of genera. High-resolution quantitative abundance data of benthic invertebrates were collected from the Cleveland Basin (North Yorkshire, UK), and analysed with multivariate statistical methods to detect how the fauna responded to environmental changes during the early Toarcian. Twelve biofacies were identified. Their changes through time closely resemble the pattern of faunal degradation and recovery observed in modern habitats affected by anoxia. All four successional stages of community structure recorded in modern studies are recognised in the fossil data (i.e. Stage III: climax; II: transitional; I: pioneer; 0: highly disturbed). Two main faunal turnover events occurred: (i) at the onset of anoxia, with the extinction of most benthic species and the survival of a few adapted to thrive in low-oxygen conditions (Stages I to 0) and (ii) in the recovery, when newly evolved species colonized the re-oxygenated soft sediments and the path of recovery did not retrace of pattern of ecological degradation (Stages I to II). The ordination of samples coupled with sedimentological and palaeotemperature proxy data indicate that the onset of anoxia and the extinction horizon coincide with both a rise in temperature and sea level. Our study of how faunal associations co-vary with long and short term sea level and temperature changes has implications for predicting the long-term effects of “dead zones” in modern oceans

Effects of Elevated Temperature and Carbon Dioxide on the Growth and Survival of Larvae and Juveniles of Three Species of Northwest Atlantic Bivalves

Rising CO2 concentrations and water temperatures this century are likely to have transformative effects on many coastal marine organisms. Here, we compared the responses of two life history stages (larval, juvenile) of three species of calcifying bivalves (Mercenaria mercenaria, Crassostrea virginica, and Argopecten irradians) to temperatures (24 and 28°C) and CO2 concentrations (∼250, 390, and 750 ppm) representative of past, present, and future summer conditions in temperate estuaries. Results demonstrated that increases in temperature and CO2 each significantly depressed survival, development, growth, and lipid synthesis of M. mercenaria and A. irradians larvae and that the effects were additive. Juvenile M. mercenaria and A. irradians were negatively impacted by higher temperatures while C. virginica juveniles were not. C. virginica and A. irradians juveniles were negatively affected by higher CO2 concentrations, while M. mercenaria was not. Larvae were substantially more vulnerable to elevated CO2 than juvenile stages. These findings suggest that current and future increases in temperature and CO2 are likely to have negative consequences for coastal bivalve populations

Life Cycle Management of Infrastructures

By definition, life cycle management (LCM) is a framework “of concepts, techniques, and procedures to address environmental, economic, technological, and social aspects of products and organizations in order to achieve continuous ‘sustainable’ improvement from a life cycle perspective” (Hunkeler et al.\ua02001). Thus, LCM theoretically integrates all sustainability dimensions, and strives to provide a holistic perspective. It also assists in the efficient and effective use of constrained natural and financial resources to reduce negative impacts on society (Sonnemann and Leeuw\ua02006; Adibi et al.\ua02015). The LCM of infrastructures is the adaptation of product life cycle management (PLM) as techniques to the design, construction, and management of infrastructures. Infrastructure life cycle management requires accurate and extensive information that might be generated through different kinds of intelligent and connected information workflows, such as building information modeling (BIM)

Pelvic trauma : WSES classification and guidelines

Complex pelvic injuries are among the most dangerous and deadly trauma related lesions. Different classification systems exist, some are based on the mechanism of injury, some on anatomic patterns and some are focusing on the resulting instability requiring operative fixation. The optimal treatment strategy, however, should keep into consideration the hemodynamic status, the anatomic impairment of pelvic ring function and the associated injuries. The management of pelvic trauma patients aims definitively to restore the homeostasis and the normal physiopathology associated to the mechanical stability of the pelvic ring. Thus the management of pelvic trauma must be multidisciplinary and should be ultimately based on the physiology of the patient and the anatomy of the injury. This paper presents the World Society of Emergency Surgery (WSES) classification of pelvic trauma and the management Guidelines.Peer reviewe

H2S biosynthesis and catabolism: new insights from molecular studies

Hydrogen sulfide (H2S) has profound biological effects within living organisms and is now increasingly being considered alongside other gaseous signalling molecules, such as nitric oxide (NO) and carbon monoxide (CO). Conventional use of pharmacological and molecular approaches has spawned a rapidly growing research field that has identified H2S as playing a functional role in cell-signalling and post-translational modifications. Recently, a number of laboratories have reported the use of siRNA methodologies and genetic mouse models to mimic the loss of function of genes involved in the biosynthesis and degradation of H2S within tissues. Studies utilising these systems are revealing new insights into the biology of H2S within the cardiovascular system, inflammatory disease, and in cell signalling. In light of this work, the current review will describe recent advances in H2S research made possible by the use of molecular approaches and genetic mouse models with perturbed capacities to generate or detoxify physiological levels of H2S gas within tissue