The changing nature of risk and risk management: the challenge of borders, uncertainty and resilience

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Prioritising surveillance for alien organisms transported as stowaways on ships travelling to South Africa

The global shipping network facilitates the transportation and introduction of marine and terrestrial organisms to regions where they are not native, and some of these organisms become invasive. South Africa was used as a case study to evaluate the potential for shipping to contribute to the introduction and establishment of marine and terrestrial alien species (i.e. establishment debt) and to assess how this varies across shipping routes and seasons. As a proxy for the number of species introduced (i.e. 'colonisation pressure') shipping movement data were used to determine, for each season, the number of ships that visited South African ports from foreign ports and the number of days travelled between ports. Seasonal marine and terrestrial environmental similarity between South African and foreign ports was then used to estimate the likelihood that introduced species would establish. These data were used to determine the seasonal relative contribution of shipping routes to South Africa's marine and terrestrial establishment debt. Additionally, distribution data were used to identify marine and terrestrial species that are known to be invasive elsewhere and which might be introduced to each South African port through shipping routes that have a high relative contribution to establishment debt. Shipping routes from Asian ports, especially Singapore, have a particularly high relative contribution to South Africa's establishment debt, while among South African ports, Durban has the highest risk of being invaded. There was seasonal variation in the shipping routes that have a high relative contribution to the establishment debt of the South African ports. The presented method provides a simple way to prioritise surveillance effort and our results indicate that, for South Africa, port-specific prevention strategies should be developed, a large portion of the available resources should be allocated to Durban, and seasonal variations and their consequences for prevention strategies should be explored further. (Résumé d'auteur

The Relationship Between HR Practices and Firm Performance: Examining Causal Order

Significant research attention has been devoted to examining the relationship between HR practices and firm performance, and the research support has assumed HR as the causal variable. Using data from 45 business units (with 62 data points), this study examines how measures of HR practices correlate with past, concurrent, and future operational performance measures. The results indicate that correlations with performance measures at all three times are both high and invariant, and that controlling for past or concurrent performance virtually eliminates the correlation of HR with future performance. Implications are discussed

Postglacial Colonisation Patterns and the Role of Isolation and Expansion in Driving Diversification in a Passerine Bird

Pleistocene glacial cycles play a major role in diversification and speciation, although the relative importance of isolation and expansion in driving diversification remains debated. We analysed mitochondrial DNA sequence data from 15 great reed warbler (Acrocephalus arundinaceus) populations distributed over the vast Eurasian breeding range of the species, and revealed unexpected postglacial expansion patterns from two glacial refugia. There were 58 different haplotypes forming two major clades, A and B. Clade A dominated in Western Europe with declining frequencies towards Eastern Europe and the Middle East, but showed a surprising increase in frequency in Western and Central Asia. Clade B dominated in the Middle East, with declining frequencies towards north in Central and Eastern Europe and was absent from Western Europe and Central Asia. A parsimonious explanation for these patterns is independent postglacial expansions from two isolated refugia, and mismatch distribution analyses confirmed this suggestion. Gene flow analyses showed that clade A colonised both Europe and Asia from a refugium in Europe, and that clade B expanded much later and colonised parts of Europe from a refugium in the Middle East. Great reed warblers in the eastern parts of the range have slightly paler plumage than western birds (sometimes treated as separate subspecies; A. a. zarudnyi and A. a. arundinaceus, respectively) and our results suggest that the plumage diversification took place during the easterly expansion of clade A. This supports the postglacial expansion hypothesis proposing that postglacial expansions drive diversification in comparatively short time periods. However, there is no indication of any (strong) reproductive isolation between clades and our data show that the refugia populations became separated during the last glaciation. This is in line with the Pleistocene speciation hypothesis invoking that much longer periods of time in isolation are needed for speciation to occur

Theorems on existence and global dynamics for the Einstein equations

This article is a guide to theorems on existence and global dynamics of solutions of the Einstein equations. It draws attention to open questions in the field. The local-in-time Cauchy problem, which is relatively well understood, is surveyed. Global results for solutions with various types of symmetry are discussed. A selection of results from Newtonian theory and special relativity that offer useful comparisons is presented. Treatments of global results in the case of small data and results on constructing spacetimes with prescribed singularity structure or late-time asymptotics are given. A conjectural picture of the asymptotic behaviour of general cosmological solutions of the Einstein equations is built up. Some miscellaneous topics connected with the main theme are collected in a separate section.Comment: Submitted to Living Reviews in Relativity, major update of Living Rev. Rel. 5 (2002)

The big five personality traits, perfectionism and their association with mental health among UK students on professional degree programmes

Background In view of heightened rates of suicide and evidence of poor mental health among healthcare occupational groups, such as veterinarians, doctors, pharmacists and dentists, there has been increasing focus on the students aiming for careers in these fields. It is often proposed that a high proportion of these students may possess personality traits which render them vulnerable to mental ill-health. Aim To explore the relationship between the big five personality traits, perfectionism and mental health in UK students undertaking undergraduate degrees in veterinary medicine, medicine, pharmacy, dentistry and law. Methods A total of 1744 students studying veterinary medicine, medicine, dentistry, pharmacy and law in the UK completed an online questionnaire, which collected data on the big five personality traits (NEO-FFI), perfectionism (Frost Multidimensional Perfectionism Scale), wellbeing (Warwick-Edinburgh Mental Well-being Scale), psychological distress (General Health Questionnaire-12), depression (Beck Depression Inventory-II) and suicidal ideation and attempts. Results Veterinary, medical and dentistry students were significantly more agreeable than law students, while veterinary students had the lowest perfectionism scores of the five groups studied. High levels of neuroticism and low conscientiousness were predictive of increased mental ill-health in each of the student populations. Conclusions The study highlights that the prevailing anecdotal view of professional students possessing maladaptive personality traits that negatively impact on their mental health may be misplaced

The Whereabouts of an Ancient Wanderer: Global Phylogeography of the Solitary Ascidian Styela plicata

Genetic tools have greatly aided in tracing the sources and colonization history of introduced species. However, recurrent introductions and repeated shuffling of populations may have blurred some of the genetic signals left by ancient introductions. Styela plicata is a solitary ascidian distributed worldwide. Although its origin remains unclear, this species is believed to have spread worldwide by travelling on ship's hulls. The goals of this study were to infer the genetic structure and global phylogeography of S. plicata and to look for present-day and historical genetic patterns. Two genetic markers were used: a fragment of the mitochondrial gene Cytochrome Oxidase subunit I (COI) and a fragment of the nuclear gene Adenine Nucleotide Transporter/ADP-ATP Translocase (ANT). A total of 368 individuals for COI and 315 for ANT were sequenced from 17 locations worldwide. The levels of gene diversity were moderate for COI to high for ANT. The Mediterranean populations showed the least diversity and allelic richness for both markers, while the Indian, Atlantic and Pacific Oceans had the highest gene and nucleotide diversities. Network and phylogenetic analyses with COI and ANT revealed two groups of alleles separated by 15 and 4 mutational steps, respectively. The existence of different lineages suggested an ancient population split. However, the geographic distributions of these groups did not show any consistent pattern, indicating different phylogeographic histories for each gene. Genetic divergence was significant for many population-pairs irrespective of the geographic distance among them. Stochastic introduction events are reflected in the uneven distribution of COI and ANT allele frequencies and groups among many populations. Our results confirmed that S. plicata has been present in all studied oceans for a long time, and that recurrent colonization events and occasional shuffling among populations have determined the actual genetic structure of this species

Glaciation Effects on the Phylogeographic Structure of Oligoryzomys longicaudatus (Rodentia: Sigmodontinae) in the Southern Andes

The long-tailed pygmy rice rat Oligoryzomys longicaudatus (Sigmodontinae), the major reservoir of Hantavirus in Chile and Patagonian Argentina, is widely distributed in the Mediterranean, Temperate and Patagonian Forests of Chile, as well as in adjacent areas in southern Argentina. We used molecular data to evaluate the effects of the last glacial event on the phylogeographic structure of this species. We examined if historical Pleistocene events had affected genetic variation and spatial distribution of this species along its distributional range. We sampled 223 individuals representing 47 localities along the species range, and sequenced the hypervariable domain I of the mtDNA control region. Aligned sequences were analyzed using haplotype network, Bayesian population structure and demographic analyses. Analysis of population structure and the haplotype network inferred three genetic clusters along the distribution of O. longicaudatus that mostly agreed with the three major ecogeographic regions in Chile: Mediterranean, Temperate Forests and Patagonian Forests. Bayesian Skyline Plots showed constant population sizes through time in all three clusters followed by an increase after and during the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM; between 26,000–13,000 years ago). Neutrality tests and the “g” parameter also suggest that populations of O. longicaudatus experienced demographic expansion across the species entire range. Past climate shifts have influenced population structure and lineage variation of O. longicaudatus. This species remained in refugia areas during Pleistocene times in southern Temperate Forests (and adjacent areas in Patagonia). From these refugia, O. longicaudatus experienced demographic expansions into Patagonian Forests and central Mediterranean Chile using glacial retreats

Bovine Herpesvirus Type 1 (BHV-1) UL49.5 Luminal Domain Residues 30 to 32 Are Critical for MHC-I Down-Regulation in Virus-Infected Cells

Bovine herpesvirus type 1 (BHV-1) UL49.5 inhibits transporter associated with antigen processing (TAP) and down-regulates cell-surface expression of major histocompatibility complex (MHC) class I molecules to promote immune evasion. We have constructed a BHV-1 UL49.5 cytoplasmic tail (CT) null and several UL49.5 luminal domain mutants in the backbone of wild-type BHV-1 or BHV-1 UL49.5 CT- null viruses and determined their relative TAP mediated peptide transport inhibition and MHC-1 down-regulation properties compared with BHV-1 wt. Based on our results, the UL49.5 luminal domain residues 30–32 and UL49.5 CT residues, together, promote efficient TAP inhibition and MHC-I down-regulation functions. In vitro, BHV-1 UL49.5 Δ30–32 CT-null virus growth property was similar to that of BHV-1 wt and like the wt UL49.5, the mutant UL49.5 was incorporated in the virion envelope and it formed a complex with gM in the infected cells