The association of cold weather and all-cause and cause-specific mortality in the island of Ireland between 1984 and 2007

This is an Open Access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0), which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly credited. The Creative Commons Public Domain Dedication waiver (http://creativecommons.org/publicdomain/zero/1.0/) applies to the data made available in this article, unless otherwise stated.This article has been made available through the Brunel Open Access Publishing Fund.Background This study aimed to assess the relationship between cold temperature and daily mortality in the Republic of Ireland (ROI) and Northern Ireland (NI), and to explore any differences in the population responses between the two jurisdictions. Methods A time-stratified case-crossover approach was used to examine this relationship in two adult national populations, between 1984 and 2007. Daily mortality risk was examined in association with exposure to daily maximum temperatures on the same day and up to 6 weeks preceding death, during the winter (December-February) and cold period (October-March), using distributed lag models. Model stratification by age and gender assessed for modification of the cold weather-mortality relationship. Results In the ROI, the impact of cold weather in winter persisted up to 35 days, with a cumulative mortality increase for all-causes of 6.4% (95%CI=4.8%-7.9%) in relation to every 1oC drop in daily maximum temperature, similar increases for cardiovascular disease (CVD) and stroke, and twice as much for respiratory causes. In NI, these associations were less pronounced for CVD causes, and overall extended up to 28 days. Effects of cold weather on mortality increased with age in both jurisdictions, and some suggestive gender differences were observed. Conclusions The study findings indicated strong cold weather-mortality associations in the island of Ireland; these effects were less persistent, and for CVD mortality, smaller in NI than in the ROI. Together with suggestive differences in associations by age and gender between the two Irish jurisdictions, the findings suggest potential contribution of underlying societal differences, and require further exploration. The evidence provided here will hope to contribute to the current efforts to modify fuel policy and reduce winter mortality in Ireland

End of life care interventions for people with dementia in care homes : addressing uncertainty within a framework for service delivery and evaluation

© 2015 Goodman et al. Open Access. This article is distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/), which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided you give appropriate credit to the original author(s) and the source, provide a link to the Creative Commons license, and indicate if changes were made. The Creative Commons Public Domain Dedication waiver (http://creativecommons.org/publicdomain/zero/1.0/) applies to the data made available in this article, unless otherwise statedMethods: The data from three studies on EoL care in care homes: (i) EVIDEM EoL , (ii) EPOCH , and (iii) TTT EoL were used to inform the development of the framework. All used mixed method designs and two had an intervention designed to improve how care home staff provided end of life care. The EVIDEM EoL and EPOCH studies tracked the care of older people in care homes over a period of 12 months. The TTT study collected resource use data of care home residents for three months, and surveyed decedents' notes for ten months, Results: Across the three studies, 29 care homes, 528 residents, 205 care home staff, and 44 visiting health care professionals participated. Analysis of showed that end of life interventions for people with dementia were characterised by uncertainty in three key areas; what treatment is the 'right' treatment, who should do what and when, and in which setting EoL care should be delivered and by whom? These uncertainties are conceptualised as Treatment uncertainty, Relational uncertainty and Service uncertainty. This paper proposes an emergent framework to inform the development and evaluation of EoL care interventions in care homes. Conclusion: For people with dementia living and dying in care homes, EoL interventions need to provide strategies that can accommodate or "hold" the inevitable and often unresolvable uncertainties of providing and receiving care in these settingsPeer reviewe

DNA methylation age and physical and cognitive ageing

Background: DNA methylation (DNAm) age acceleration (AgeAccel) has been shown to be predictive of all-cause mortality but it is unclear what functional aspect/s of ageing it captures. We examine associations between four measures of AgeAccel in adults aged 45-87 years and physical and cognitive performance and their age-related decline. / Methods: AgeAccelHannum, AgeAccelHorvath, AgeAccelPheno and AgeAccelGrim were calculated in the Medical Research Council National Survey of Health and Development (NSHD), National Child Development Study (NCDS) and TwinsUK. Three measures of physical (grip strength, chair rise speed and forced expiratory volume in one second[FEV1]) and two measures of cognitive (episodic memory and mental speed) performance were assessed. / Results: AgeAccelPheno and AgeAccelGrim, but not AgeAccelHannum and AgeAccelHorvath were related to performance in random effects meta-analyses (n=1388-1685). For example, a one year increase in AgeAccelPheno/AgeAccelGrim was associated with a 0.01ml[95%CI:0.01,0.02]/0.03ml[95%CI:0.01,0.05] lower mean FEV1. In NSHD, AgeAccelPheno and AgeAccelGrim at 53 years were associated with age-related decline in performance between 53 and 69 years as tested by linear mixed models (p<0.05). In a subset of NSHD participants(n=482), there was little evidence that change in any AgeAccel measure was associated with change in performance conditional on baseline performance. / Conclusions: We found little evidence to support associations between the first generation of DNAm-based biomarkers of ageing and age-related physical or cognitive performance in mid-life to early old age. However, there was evidence that the second generation biomarkers, AgeAccelPheno and AgeAccelGrim, could act as makers of an individual’s health-span as proposed

Albumin-based cancer therapeutics for intraperitoneal drug delivery : a review

Albumin is a remarkable carrier protein with multiple cellular receptor and ligand binding sites, which are able to bind and transport numerous endogenous and exogenous compounds. The development of albumin-bound drugs is gaining increased importance in the targeted delivery of cancer therapy. Intraperitoneal (IP) drug delivery represents an attractive strategy for the local treatment of peritoneal metastasis (PM). PM is characterized by the presence of widespread metastatic tumor nodules on the peritoneum, mostly originating from gastro-intestinal or gynaecological cancers. Albumin as a carrier for chemotherapy holds considerable promise for IP delivery in patients with PM. Data from recent (pre)clinical trials suggest that IP albumin-bound chemotherapy may result in superior efficacy in the treatment of PM compared to standard chemotherapy formulations. Here, we review the evidence on albumin-bound chemotherapy with a focus on IP administration and its efficacy in PM

Service use of older people who participate in primary care health promotion: a latent class analysis

Background: Recruiting patients to health promotion programmes who will benefit is crucial to success. A key policy driver for health promotion in older people is to reduce health and social care use. Our aim was to describe service use among older people taking part in the Multi-dimensional Risk Appraisal for Older people primary care health promotion programme. Methods: A random sample of 1 in 3 older people (≥65 years old) was invited to participate in the Multi-dimensional Risk Appraisal for Older people project across five general practices in London and Hertfordshire. Data collected included socio-demographic characteristics, well-being and functional ability, lifestyle factors and service use. Latent class analysis (LCA) was used to identify groups based on use of the following: secondary health care, primary health care, community health care, paid care, unpaid care, leisure and local authority resources. Differences in group characteristics were assessed using univariate logistic regression, weighted by probability of class assignation and clustered by GP practice. Results: Response rate was 34% (526/1550) with 447 participants presenting sufficient data for analysis. LCA using three groups gave the most meaningful interpretation and best model fit. About a third (active well) were fit and active with low service use. Just under a third (high NHS users) had high impairments with high primary, secondary and community health care contact, but low non-health services use. Just over a third (community service users) with high impairments used community health and other services without much hospital use. Conclusion: Older people taking part in the Multi-dimensional Risk Appraisal for Older people primary care health promotion can be described as three groups: active well, high NHS users, and community service users

Models of Star-Planet Magnetic Interaction

Magnetic interactions between a planet and its environment are known to lead to phenomena such as aurorae and shocks in the solar system. The large number of close-in exoplanets that were discovered triggered a renewed interest in magnetic interactions in star-planet systems. Multiple other magnetic effects were then unveiled, such as planet inflation or heating, planet migration, planetary material escape, and even modification of the host star properties. We review here the recent efforts in modelling and understanding magnetic interactions between stars and planets in the context of compact systems. We first provide simple estimates of the effects of magnetic interactions and then detail analytical and numerical models for different representative scenarii. We finally lay out a series of future developments that are needed today to better understand and constrain these fascinating interactions.Comment: 23 pages, 10 figures, accepted as a chapter in the Handbook of Exoplanet

Power estimation of tests in log-linear non-uniform association models for ordinal agreement

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Log-linear association models have been extensively used to investigate the pattern of agreement between ordinal ratings. In 2007, log-linear non-uniform association models were introduced to estimate, from a cross-classification of two independent raters using an ordinal scale, varying degrees of distinguishability between distant and adjacent categories of the scale.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>In this paper, a simple method based on simulations was proposed to estimate the power of non-uniform association models to detect heterogeneities across distinguishabilities between adjacent categories of an ordinal scale, illustrating some possible scale defects.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>Different scenarios of distinguishability patterns were investigated, as well as different scenarios of marginal heterogeneity within rater. For sample size of N = 50, the probabilities of detecting heterogeneities within the tables are lower than .80, whatever the number of categories. In additition, even for large samples, marginal heterogeneities within raters led to a decrease in power estimates.</p> <p>Conclusion</p> <p>This paper provided some issues about how many objects had to be classified by two independent observers (or by the same observer at two different times) to be able to detect a given scale structure defect. Our results also highlighted the importance of marginal homogeneity within raters, to ensure optimal power when using non-uniform association models.</p

Mechanisms of improved survival from intensive followup in colorectal cancer: a hypothesis

A meta-analysis of six randomised trials demonstrated that intensive followup in colorectal cancer was associated with an absolute reduction in all-cause 5-year mortality of 10% (95% confidence interval (CI): 4–16) – however, only two percent (95% CI: 0–5) was attributable to cure from salvage re-operations. We postulate that other factors, such as increased psychological well-being and/or altered lifestyle, and/or improved treatment of coincidental disease may contribute to the remaining lives saved, and form important future research questions

Indoor Residual Spraying in Combination with Insecticide-Treated Nets Compared to Insecticide-Treated Nets Alone for Protection against Malaria: A Cluster Randomised Trial in Tanzania.

Insecticide-treated nets (ITNs) and indoor residual spraying (IRS) of houses provide effective malaria transmission control. There is conflicting evidence about whether it is more beneficial to provide both interventions in combination. A cluster randomised controlled trial was conducted to investigate whether the combination provides added protection compared to ITNs alone. In northwest Tanzania, 50 clusters (village areas) were randomly allocated to ITNs only or ITNs and IRS. Dwellings in the ITN+IRS arm were sprayed with two rounds of bendiocarb in 2012. Plasmodium falciparum prevalence rate (PfPR) in children 0.5-14 y old (primary outcome) and anaemia in children <5 y old (secondary outcome) were compared between study arms using three cross-sectional household surveys in 2012. Entomological inoculation rate (secondary outcome) was compared between study arms. IRS coverage was approximately 90%. ITN use ranged from 36% to 50%. In intention-to-treat analysis, mean PfPR was 13% in the ITN+IRS arm and 26% in the ITN only arm, odds ratio = 0.43 (95% CI 0.19-0.97, n = 13,146). The strongest effect was observed in the peak transmission season, 6 mo after the first IRS. Subgroup analysis showed that ITN users were additionally protected if their houses were sprayed. Mean monthly entomological inoculation rate was non-significantly lower in the ITN+IRS arm than in the ITN only arm, rate ratio = 0.17 (95% CI 0.03-1.08). This is the first randomised trial to our knowledge that reports significant added protection from combining IRS and ITNs compared to ITNs alone. The effect is likely to be attributable to IRS providing added protection to ITN users as well as compensating for inadequate ITN use. Policy makers should consider deploying IRS in combination with ITNs to control transmission if local ITN strategies on their own are insufficiently effective. Given the uncertain generalisability of these findings, it would be prudent for malaria control programmes to evaluate the cost-effectiveness of deploying the combination.\ud \u

On thermodynamic modeling and the role of the second law of thermodynamics in geophysics

The article contains a brief review of elements of thermodynamic modeling in theoretical geophysics. We motivate the existence of the second law of thermodynamics in macroscopic theoretical physics and demonstrate its evaluation. In particular we show its consequences in the construction of constitutive laws for a two-component poroelastic medium. This construction is also related to microstructural properties verified by means of the second law