Global, regional, and national comparative risk assessment of 79 behavioural, environmental and occupational, and metabolic risks or clusters of risks, 1990-2015: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2015

SummaryBackground The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2015 provides an up-to-date synthesis of the evidence for risk factor exposure and the attributable burden of disease. By providing national and subnational assessments spanning the past 25 years, this study can inform debates on the importance of addressing risks in context. Methods We used the comparative risk assessment framework developed for previous iterations of the Global Burden of Disease Study to estimate attributable deaths, disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs), and trends in exposure by age group, sex, year, and geography for 79 behavioural, environmental and occupational, and metabolic risks or clusters of risks from 1990 to 2015. This study included 388 risk-outcome pairs that met World Cancer Research Fund-defined criteria for convincing or probable evidence. We extracted relative risk and exposure estimates from randomised controlled trials, cohorts, pooled cohorts, household surveys, census data, satellite data, and other sources. We used statistical models to pool data, adjust for bias, and incorporate covariates. We developed a metric that allows comparisons of exposure across risk factors—the summary exposure value. Using the counterfactual scenario of theoretical minimum risk level, we estimated the portion of deaths and DALYs that could be attributed to a given risk. We decomposed trends in attributable burden into contributions from population growth, population age structure, risk exposure, and risk-deleted cause-specific DALY rates. We characterised risk exposure in relation to a Socio-demographic Index (SDI). Findings Between 1990 and 2015, global exposure to unsafe sanitation, household air pollution, childhood underweight, childhood stunting, and smoking each decreased by more than 25%. Global exposure for several occupational risks, high body-mass index (BMI), and drug use increased by more than 25% over the same period. All risks jointly evaluated in 2015 accounted for 57·8% (95% CI 56·6–58·8) of global deaths and 41·2% (39·8–42·8) of DALYs. In 2015, the ten largest contributors to global DALYs among Level 3 risks were high systolic blood pressure (211·8 million [192·7 million to 231·1 million] global DALYs), smoking (148·6 million [134·2 million to 163·1 million]), high fasting plasma glucose (143·1 million [125·1 million to 163·5 million]), high BMI (120·1 million [83·8 million to 158·4 million]), childhood undernutrition (113·3 million [103·9 million to 123·4 million]), ambient particulate matter (103·1 million [90·8 million to 115·1 million]), high total cholesterol (88·7 million [74·6 million to 105·7 million]), household air pollution (85·6 million [66·7 million to 106·1 million]), alcohol use (85·0 million [77·2 million to 93·0 million]), and diets high in sodium (83·0 million [49·3 million to 127·5 million]). From 1990 to 2015, attributable DALYs declined for micronutrient deficiencies, childhood undernutrition, unsafe sanitation and water, and household air pollution; reductions in risk-deleted DALY rates rather than reductions in exposure drove these declines. Rising exposure contributed to notable increases in attributable DALYs from high BMI, high fasting plasma glucose, occupational carcinogens, and drug use. Environmental risks and childhood undernutrition declined steadily with SDI; low physical activity, high BMI, and high fasting plasma glucose increased with SDI. In 119 countries, metabolic risks, such as high BMI and fasting plasma glucose, contributed the most attributable DALYs in 2015. Regionally, smoking still ranked among the leading five risk factors for attributable DALYs in 109 countries; childhood underweight and unsafe sex remained primary drivers of early death and disability in much of sub-Saharan Africa. Interpretation Declines in some key environmental risks have contributed to declines in critical infectious diseases. Some risks appear to be invariant to SDI. Increasing risks, including high BMI, high fasting plasma glucose, drug use, and some occupational exposures, contribute to rising burden from some conditions, but also provide opportunities for intervention. Some highly preventable risks, such as smoking, remain major causes of attributable DALYs, even as exposure is declining. Public policy makers need to pay attention to the risks that are increasingly major contributors to global burden. Funding Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation

Large Fragment Pre-S Deletion and High Viral Load Independently Predict Hepatitis B Relapse after Liver Transplantation

Hepatitis B virus (HBV) associated end-stage liver diseases are the leading causes of liver transplantation (LT) in Taiwan. Relapse of hepatitis B occurs after LT, raising the risk of graft failure and reducing patient survival. Although several oral antiviral agents have been approved for anti-HBV treatment, lamivudine (LAM) remained to be the most widely used preventive regimen in Taiwan. While several clinical predictors have been identified for hepatitis B relapse, the predictive roles of the histopathological characteristics in liver explants as well as the genotypic features of the viruses in pre-LT serum samples have not been assessed. Between September 2002 and August 2009, 150 consecutive hepatitis B surface antigen (HBsAg) positive patients undergoing LT were included for outcome analysis following assessment of the clinicopathological and virological factors prior to LT. Kaplan-Meier analyses discovered that pre-operative LAM treatment ≤3 months; membranous distribution and higher expression of tissue HBsAg in liver explants; preoperative viral load ≧106 copies/ml; and presence of large fragment (>100 base pairs) pre-S deletion (LFpreSDel) correlated significantly with hepatitis B relapse. Multivariate Cox regression analysis showed that the presence of LFpreSDel (P = 0.001) and viral load ≧106 copies/mL (P = 0.023) were independent predictors for hepatitis B relapse. In conclusion, besides high viral load, LFpreSDel mutation is an important independent predictor for hepatitis B relapse after LT. More aggressive preventive strategies should be applied for patients carrying these risk factors

The GTPase Activating Rap/RanGAP Domain-Like 1 Gene Is Associated with Chicken Reproductive Traits

BACKGROUND: Abundant evidence indicates that chicken reproduction is strictly regulated by the hypothalamic-pituitary-gonad (HPG) axis, and the genes included in the HPG axis have been studied extensively. However, the question remains as to whether any other genes outside of the HPG system are involved in regulating chicken reproduction. The present study was aimed to identify, on a genome-wide level, novel genes associated with chicken reproductive traits. METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDING: Suppressive subtractive hybridization (SSH), genome-wide association study (GWAS), and gene-centric GWAS were used to identify novel genes underlying chicken reproduction. Single marker-trait association analysis with a large population and allelic frequency spectrum analysis were used to confirm the effects of candidate genes. Using two full-sib Ningdu Sanhuang (NDH) chickens, GARNL1 was identified as a candidate gene involved in chicken broodiness by SSH analysis. Its expression levels in the hypothalamus and pituitary were significantly higher in brooding chickens than in non-brooding chickens. GWAS analysis with a NDH two tail sample showed that 2802 SNPs were significantly associated with egg number at 300 d of age (EN300). Among the 2802 SNPs, 2 SNPs composed a block overlapping the GARNL1 gene. The gene-centric GWAS analysis with another two tail sample of NDH showed that GARNL1 was strongly associated with EN300 and age at first egg (AFE). Single marker-trait association analysis in 1301 female NDH chickens confirmed that variation in this gene was related to EN300 and AFE. The allelic frequency spectrum of the SNP rs15700989 among 5 different populations supported the above associations. Western blotting, RT-PCR, and qPCR were used to analyze alternative splicing of the GARNL1 gene. RT-PCR detected 5 transcripts and revealed that the transcript, which has a 141 bp insertion, was expressed in a tissue-specific manner. CONCLUSIONS/SIGNIFICANCE: Our findings demonstrate that the GARNL1 gene contributes to chicken reproductive traits

Measuring serotonin synthesis: from conventional methods to PET tracers and their (pre)clinical implications

The serotonergic system of the brain is complex, with an extensive innervation pattern covering all brain regions and endowed with at least 15 different receptors (each with their particular distribution patterns), specific reuptake mechanisms and synthetic processes. Many aspects of the functioning of the serotonergic system are still unclear, partially because of the difficulty of measuring physiological processes in the living brain. In this review we give an overview of the conventional methods of measuring serotonin synthesis and methods using positron emission tomography (PET) tracers, more specifically with respect to serotonergic function in affective disorders. Conventional methods are invasive and do not directly measure synthesis rates. Although they may give insight into turnover rates, a more direct measurement may be preferred. PET is a noninvasive technique which can trace metabolic processes, like serotonin synthesis. Tracers developed for this purpose are α-[11C]methyltryptophan ([11C]AMT) and 5-hydroxy-L-[β-11C]tryptophan ([11C]5-HTP). Both tracers have advantages and disadvantages. [11C]AMT can enter the kynurenine pathway under inflammatory conditions (and thus provide a false signal), but this tracer has been used in many studies leading to novel insights regarding antidepressant action. [11C]5-HTP is difficult to produce, but trapping of this compound may better represent serotonin synthesis. AMT and 5-HTP kinetics are differently affected by tryptophan depletion and changes of mood. This may indicate that both tracers are associated with different enzymatic processes. In conclusion, PET with radiolabelled substrates for the serotonergic pathway is the only direct way to detect changes of serotonin synthesis in the living brain

Smoking prevalence and attributable disease burden in 195 countries and territories, 1990-2015 : a systematic analysis from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2015

Background The scale-up of tobacco control, especially after the adoption of the Framework Convention for Tobacco Control, is a major public health success story. Nonetheless, smoking remains a leading risk for early death and disability worldwide, and therefore continues to require sustained political commitment. The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) offers a robust platform through which global, regional, and national progress toward achieving smoking-related targets can be assessed. Methods We synthesised 2818 data sources with spatiotemporal Gaussian process regression and produced estimates of daily smoking prevalence by sex, age group, and year for 195 countries and territories from 1990 to 2015. We analysed 38 risk-outcome pairs to generate estimates of smoking-attributable mortality and disease burden, as measured by disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs). We then performed a cohort analysis of smoking prevalence by birth-year cohort to better understand temporal age patterns in smoking. We also did a decomposition analysis, in which we parsed out changes in all-cause smoking-attributable DALYs due to changes in population growth, population ageing, smoking prevalence, and risk-deleted DALY rates. Finally, we explored results by level of development using the Socio-demographic Index (SDI). Findings Worldwide, the age-standardised prevalence of daily smoking was 25.0% (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 24.2-25.7) for men and 5.4% (5.1-5.7) for women, representing 28.4% (25.8-31.1) and 34.4% (29.4-38.6) reductions, respectively, since 1990. A greater percentage of countries and territories achieved significant annualised rates of decline in smoking prevalence from 1990 to 2005 than in between 2005 and 2015; however, only four countries had significant annualised increases in smoking prevalence between 2005 and 2015 (Congo [Brazzaville] and Azerbaijan for men and Kuwait and Timor-Leste for women). In 2015, 11.5% of global deaths (6.4 million [95% UI 5.7-7.0 million]) were attributable to smoking worldwide, of which 52.2% took place in four countries (China, India, the USA, and Russia). Smoking was ranked among the five leading risk factors by DALYs in 109 countries and territories in 2015, rising from 88 geographies in 1990. In terms of birth cohorts, male smoking prevalence followed similar age patterns across levels of SDI, whereas much more heterogeneity was found in age patterns for female smokers by level of development. While smoking prevalence and risk-deleted DALY rates mostly decreased by sex and SDI quintile, population growth, population ageing, or a combination of both, drove rises in overall smoking-attributable DALYs in low-SDI to middle-SDI geographies between 2005 and 2015. Interpretation The pace of progress in reducing smoking prevalence has been heterogeneous across geographies, development status, and sex, and as highlighted by more recent trends, maintaining past rates of decline should not be taken for granted, especially in women and in low-SDI to middle-SDI countries. Beyond the effect of the tobacco industry and societal mores, a crucial challenge facing tobacco control initiatives is that demographic forces are poised to heighten smoking's global toll, unless progress in preventing initiation and promoting cessation can be substantially accelerated. Greater success in tobacco control is possible but requires effective, comprehensive, and adequately implemented and enforced policies, which might in turn require global and national levels of political commitment beyond what has been achieved during the past 25 years.Peer reviewe

Global, regional, and national incidence, prevalence, and years lived with disability for 310 diseases and injuries, 1990-2015:a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2015

Background Non-fatal outcomes of disease and injury increasingly detract from the ability of the world's population to live in full health, a trend largely attributable to an epidemiological transition in many countries from causes affecting children, to non-communicable diseases (NCDs) more common in adults. For the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2015 (GBD 2015), we estimated the incidence, prevalence, and years lived with disability for diseases and injuries at the global, regional, and national scale over the period of 1990 to 2015.Methods We estimated incidence and prevalence by age, sex, cause, year, and geography with a wide range of updated and standardised analytical procedures. Improvements from GBD 2013 included the addition of new data sources, updates to literature reviews for 85 causes, and the identification and inclusion of additional studies published up to November, 2015, to expand the database used for estimation of non-fatal outcomes to 60 900 unique data sources. Prevalence and incidence by cause and sequelae were determined with DisMod-MR 2.1, an improved version of the DisMod-MR Bayesian meta-regression tool first developed for GBD 2010 and GBD 2013. For some causes, we used alternative modelling strategies where the complexity of the disease was not suited to DisMod-MR 2.1 or where incidence and prevalence needed to be determined from other data. For GBD 2015 we created a summary indicator that combines measures of income per capita, educational attainment, and fertility (the Socio-demographic Index [SDI]) and used it to compare observed patterns of health loss to the expected pattern for countries or locations with similar SDI scores.Findings We generated 9.3 billion estimates from the various combinations of prevalence, incidence, and YLDs for causes, sequelae, and impairments by age, sex, geography, and year. In 2015, two causes had acute incidences in excess of 1 billion: upper respiratory infections (17.2 billion, 95% uncertainty interval [UI] 15.4-19.2 billion) and diarrhoeal diseases (2.39 billion, 2.30-2.50 billion). Eight causes of chronic disease and injury each affected more than 10% of the world's population in 2015: permanent caries, tension-type headache, iron-deficiency anaemia, age-related and other hearing loss, migraine, genital herpes, refraction and accommodation disorders, and ascariasis. The impairment that affected the greatest number of people in 2015 was anaemia, with 2.36 billion (2.35-2.37 billion) individuals affected. The second and third leading impairments by number of individuals affected were hearing loss and vision loss, respectively. Between 2005 and 2015, there was little change in the leading causes of years lived with disability (YLDs) on a global basis. NCDs accounted for 18 of the leading 20 causes of age-standardised YLDs on a global scale. Where rates were decreasing, the rate of decrease for YLDs was slower than that of years of life lost (YLLs) for nearly every cause included in our analysis. For low SDI geographies, Group 1 causes typically accounted for 20-30% of total disability, largely attributable to nutritional deficiencies, malaria, neglected tropical diseases, HIV/AIDS, and tuberculosis. Lower back and neck pain was the leading global cause of disability in 2015 in most countries. The leading cause was sense organ disorders in 22 countries in Asia and Africa and one in central Latin America; diabetes in four countries in Oceania; HIV/AIDS in three southern sub-Saharan African countries; collective violence and legal intervention in two north African and Middle Eastern countries; iron-deficiency anaemia in Somalia and Venezuela; depression in Uganda; onchoceriasis in Liberia; and other neglected tropical diseases in the Democratic Republic of the Congo.Interpretation Ageing of the world's population is increasing the number of people living with sequelae of diseases and injuries. Shifts in the epidemiological profile driven by socioeconomic change also contribute to the continued increase in years lived with disability (YLDs) as well as the rate of increase in YLDs. Despite limitations imposed by gaps in data availability and the variable quality of the data available, the standardised and comprehensive approach of the GBD study provides opportunities to examine broad trends, compare those trends between countries or subnational geographies, benchmark against locations at similar stages of development, and gauge the strength or weakness of the estimates available. Copyright (C) The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd.</p