Prediction of Dengue Incidence Using Search Query Surveillance

Improvements in surveillance, prediction of outbreaks and the monitoring of the epidemiology of dengue virus in countries with underdeveloped surveillance systems are of great importance to ministries of health and other public health decision makers who are often constrained by budget or man-power. Google Flu Trends has proven successful in providing an early warning system for outbreaks of influenza weeks before case data are reported. We believe that there is greater potential for this technique for dengue, as the incidence of this pathogen can vary by a factor of ten in some settings, making prediction all the more important in public health planning. In this paper, we demonstrate the utility of Google search terms in predicting dengue incidence in Singapore and Bangkok, Thailand using several regression techniques. Incidence data were provided by the Singapore Ministry of Health and the Thailand Bureau of Epidemiology. We find our models predict incident cases well (correlation greater than 0.8) and periods of high incidence equally well (AUC greater than 0.95). All data and analysis code used in our study are available free online and can be adapted to other settings

Managerial Work in a Practice-Embodying Institution - The role of calling, the virtue of constancy

What can be learned from a small scale study of managerial work in a highly marginal and under-researched working community? This paper uses the ‘goods-virtues-practices-institutions’ framework to examine the managerial work of owner-directors of traditional circuses. Inspired by MacIntyre’s arguments for the necessity of a narrative understanding of the virtues, interviews explored how British and Irish circus directors accounted for their working lives. A purposive sample was used to select subjects who had owned and managed traditional touring circuses for at least 15 years, a period in which the economic and reputational fortunes of traditional circuses have suffered badly. This sample enabled the research to examine the self-understanding of people who had, at least on the face of it, exhibited the virtue of constancy. The research contributes to our understanding of the role of the virtues in organizations by presenting evidence of an intimate relationship between the virtue of constancy and a ‘calling’ work orientation. This enhances our understanding of the virtues that are required if management is exercised as a domain-related practice

Parental Monitoring During Early Adolescence Deters Adolescent Sexual Initiation: Discrete-Time Survival Mixture Analysis

We used discrete-time survival mixture modeling to examine 5,305 adolescents from the 1997 National Longitudinal Survey of Youth regarding the impact of parental monitoring during early adolescence (ages 14–16) on initiation of sexual intercourse and problem behavior engagement (ages 14–23). Four distinctive parental-monitoring groups were identified and labeled as “High,” “Increasing,” “Decreasing,” and “Low”. About 68% of adolescents received a high level of parental monitoring from ages 14 to 16 (High), 6 and 9% respectively exhibited an accelerated (Increasing) and a decelerated trajectory (Decreasing), and 17% had consistently low parental monitoring (Low). Relative to participants in the Low group, adolescents in the High group delayed sexual initiation by 1.5 years. Males, relative to females, were more likely to have had a low trajectory of parental monitoring, and were more likely to initiate sexual intercourse before age 14. In contrast to White Adolescents, Hispanics and Blacks were less likely to receive High parental monitoring, and had a higher rate of early sexual initiation before age 14. The study demonstrates the temporal relationship of parental monitoring with adolescent sexual initiation from a longitudinal perspective. An increase of parental monitoring across ages is accompanied with a decrease of sexual risk. The continual high level of parental monitoring from ages 14 to 16 also mitigated the risk of engagement in substance use and delinquent behaviors from ages 14 to 23

Observational and Physical Classification of Supernovae

This chapter describes the current classification scheme of supernovae (SNe). This scheme has evolved over many decades and now includes numerous SN Types and sub-types. Many of these are universally recognized, while there are controversies regarding the definitions, membership and even the names of some sub-classes; we will try to review here the commonly-used nomenclature, noting the main variants when possible. SN Types are defined according to observational properties; mostly visible-light spectra near maximum light, as well as according to their photometric properties. However, a long-term goal of SN classification is to associate observationally-defined classes with specific physical explosive phenomena. We show here that this aspiration is now finally coming to fruition, and we establish the SN classification scheme upon direct observational evidence connecting SN groups with specific progenitor stars. Observationally, the broad class of Type II SNe contains objects showing strong spectroscopic signatures of hydrogen, while objects lacking such signatures are of Type I, which is further divided to numerous subclasses. Recently a class of super-luminous SNe (SLSNe, typically 10 times more luminous than standard events) has been identified, and it is discussed. We end this chapter by briefly describing a proposed alternative classification scheme that is inspired by the stellar classification system. This system presents our emerging physical understanding of SN explosions, while clearly separating robust observational properties from physical inferences that can be debated. This new system is quantitative, and naturally deals with events distributed along a continuum, rather than being strictly divided into discrete classes. Thus, it may be more suitable to the coming era where SN numbers will quickly expand from a few thousands to millions of events.Comment: Extended final draft of a chapter in the "SN Handbook". Comments most welcom

Parents’ Promotion of Psychological Autonomy, Psychological Control, and Mexican–American Adolescents’ Adjustment

Mexican–American adolescents are at an elevated risk for adjustment difficulties. In an effort to identify parenting practices that can affect the adjustment of Mexican–American youth, the current study examined parents’ promotion of psychological autonomy and parents’ psychological control as perceived by Mexican–American early adolescents, and explored their associations with adolescents’ adjustment in the context of acculturation. In 5th grade, 134 (54.5% female) Mexican–American adolescents reported on their acculturation level and the parenting practices of their mothers and fathers. In 5th and 7th grade, adolescents also reported on their depressive symptoms, number of delinquent friends, and self-worth. Perceptions of promotion of psychological autonomy and of psychological control were positively correlated. However, perceptions of more promotion of psychological autonomy and of less psychological control predicted fewer depressive symptoms 2 years later. Perceptions of more promotion of psychological autonomy also predicted fewer delinquent friends two years later. Finally, perceptions of more promotion of psychological autonomy predicted higher self-worth only among less acculturated adolescents. The study underscores the roles that promotion of psychological autonomy and psychological control may play in Mexican–American children’s well-being during early adolescence

Review of Community Pharmacy Staff Educational Needs for Supporting Mental Health Consumers and Carers

Development of a mental health education package for community pharmacy staff should be informed by mental health consumers/carers’ needs, expectations and experiences, and staff knowledge, skills and attitudes. This review (1) explored research on community pharmacy practice and service provision for mental health consumers/carers, and (2) identified validated methods for assessing staff knowledge, skills and attitudes about mental illness to inform the development of a training questionnaire. A literature scan using key words knowledge, skills, attitudes, and beliefs combined with community pharmacy, pharmacist, and pharmacy support staff, and mental illness, depression, anxiety was conducted. A small number of studies were found that used reliable methods to assess pharmacists’ training needs regarding mental illness and treatment options. There was little published specifically in relation to depression and anxiety in community pharmacy practice. No studies assessed the training needs of pharmacy support staff. A systematic analysis of pharmacy staff learning needs is warranted

A Wolf-Rayet-like progenitor of SN 2013cu from spectral observations of a stellar wind.

The explosive fate of massive Wolf-Rayet stars (WRSs) is a key open question in stellar physics. An appealing option is that hydrogen-deficient WRSs are the progenitors of some hydrogen-poor supernova explosions of types IIb, Ib and Ic (ref. 2). A blue object, having luminosity and colours consistent with those of some WRSs, has recently been identified in pre-explosion images at the location of a supernova of type Ib (ref. 3), but has not yet been conclusively determined to have been the progenitor. Similar work has so far only resulted in non-detections. Comparison of early photometric observations of type Ic supernovae with theoretical models suggests that the progenitor stars had radii of less than 10(12) centimetres, as expected for some WRSs. The signature of WRSs, their emission line spectra, cannot be probed by such studies. Here we report the detection of strong emission lines in a spectrum of type IIb supernova 2013cu (iPTF13ast) obtained approximately 15.5 hours after explosion (by 'flash spectroscopy', which captures the effects of the supernova explosion shock breakout flash on material surrounding the progenitor star). We identify Wolf-Rayet-like wind signatures, suggesting a progenitor of the WN(h) subclass (those WRSs with winds dominated by helium and nitrogen, with traces of hydrogen). The extent of this dense wind may indicate increased mass loss from the progenitor shortly before its explosion, consistent with recent theoretical predictions

Psychological and behavioural factors associated with sexual risk behaviour among Slovak students

Background: Knowledge about the prevalence of sexual risk behaviour (SRB) in adolescence is needed to prevent unwanted health consequences. Studies on SRB among adolescents in Central Europe are rare and mostly rely on a single indicator for SRB. This study aims to assess the association of behavioural and psychological factors with three types of SRB in adolescents in Central Europe. Methods: We obtained data on behavioural factors (having been drunk during previous month, smoking during previous week, early sexual initiation), psychological factors (self-esteem, wellbeing, extroversion, neuroticism, religiousness), and SRB (intercourse under risky conditions, multiple sexual partners, and inconsistent condom use) in 832 Slovak university students (response 94.3%). Results: Among those with sexual experience (62%), inconsistent condom use was the most prevalent risk behaviour (81% in females, 72% in males). With the exception of having been drunk in males, no factor was associated with inconsistent condom use. Regarding the other types of SRB, early sexual initiation was most strongly associated. In addition, other, mostly behavioural, factors were associated, in particular having been drunk. Conclusion: Results suggest that behavioural factors are more closely related to SRB than psychological factors. Associations differ by type of SRB and gender but offer few clues to target risk groups for inconsistent condom use. Results show a high need for health-promotion programmes in early adolescence that target SRB in conjunction with other health risk behaviours such as alcohol abuse

Computational ethics

This is the final version. Available on open access from Elsevier via the DOI in this recordTechnological advances are enabling roles for machines that present novel ethical challenges. The study of 'AI ethics' has emerged to confront these challenges, and connects perspectives from philosophy, computer science, law, and economics. Less represented in these interdisciplinary efforts is the perspective of cognitive science. We propose a framework – computational ethics – that specifies how the ethical challenges of AI can be partially addressed by incorporating the study of human moral decision-making. The driver of this framework is a computational version of reflective equilibrium (RE), an approach that seeks coherence between considered judgments and governing principles. The framework has two goals: (i) to inform the engineering of ethical AI systems, and (ii) to characterize human moral judgment and decision-making in computational terms. Working jointly towards these two goals will create the opportunity to integrate diverse research questions, bring together multiple academic communities, uncover new interdisciplinary research topics, and shed light on centuries-old philosophical questions.Templeton World Charity Foundatio