The DURATIONS randomised trial design: Estimation targets, analysis methods and operating characteristics

Background. Designing trials to reduce treatment duration is important in several therapeutic areas, including TB and antibiotics. We recently proposed a new randomised trial design to overcome some of the limitations of standard two-arm non-inferiority trials. This DURATIONS design involves randomising patients to a number of duration arms, and modelling the so-called duration-response curve. This article investigates the operating characteristics (type-1 and type-2 errors) of different statistical methods of drawing inference from the estimated curve. Methods. Our first estimation target is the shortest duration non-inferior to the control (maximum) duration within a specific risk difference margin. We compare different methods of estimating this quantity, including using model confidence bands, the delta method and bootstrap. We then explore the generalisability of results to estimation targets which focus on absolute event rates, risk ratio and gradient of the curve. Results. We show through simulations that, in most scenarios and for most of the estimation targets, using the bootstrap to estimate variability around the target duration leads to good results for DURATIONS design-appropriate quantities analogous to power and type-1 error. Using model confidence bands is not recommended, while the delta method leads to inflated type-1 error in some scenarios, particularly when the optimal duration is very close to one of the randomised durations. Conclusions. Using the bootstrap to estimate the optimal duration in a DURATIONS design has good operating characteristics in a wide range of scenarios, and can be used with confidence by researchers wishing to design a DURATIONS trial to reduce treatment duration. Uncertainty around several different targets can be estimated with this bootstrap approach

External data required timely response by the Trial Steering-Data Monitoring Committee for the NALoxone InVEstigation (N-ALIVE) pilot trial

The prison-based N-ALIVE pilot trial had undertaken to notify the Research Ethics Committee and participants if we had reason to believe that the N-ALIVE pilot trial would not proceed to the main trial. In this paper, we describe how external data for the third year of before/after evaluation from Scotland's National Naloxone Programme, a related public health policy, were anticipated by eliciting prior opinion about the Scottish results in the month prior to their release as official statistics. We summarise how deliberations by the N-ALIVE Trial Steering-Data Monitoring Committee (TS-DMC) on N-ALIVE's own interim data, together with those on naloxone-on-release (NOR) from Scotland, led to the decision to cease randomization in the N-ALIVE pilot trial and recommend to local Principal Investigators that NOR be offered to already-randomized prisoners who had not yet been released

The 'knowledge politics' of democratic peace theory

How do academic ideas influence US foreign policy, under what conditions and with what consequences? This article traces the rise, ‘securitisation’ and political consequences of democratic peace theory (DPT) in the United States by exploring the work of Doyle, Diamond and Fukuyama. Ideas influence US foreign policy under different circumstances, but are most likely to do either during and after crises when the policy environment permits ‘new thinking’, or when these ideas have been developed through state-connected elite knowledge networks, or when they are (or appear paradigmatically congenial to) foreign policymakers’ mindsets, or, finally, when they become institutionally-embedded. The appropriation of DPT by foreign policymakers has categorised the world into antagonistic blocs – democratic/non-democratic zones of peace/turmoil – as the corollary to a renewed American mission to make the world ‘safer’ through ‘democracy’ promotion. The roles of networked organic intellectuals – in universities and think tanks, for instance – were particularly important in elevating DPT from the academy to national security managers

The TNF-α antagonist etanerceptreverses age-related decreases in colonic SERT expression and faecal output in mice

Treatment for chronic constipation in older people is challenging and the condition has a major impact on quality of life. A lack of understanding about the causes of this condition has hampered the development of effective treatments. 5-HT is an important pro-kinetic agent in the colon. We examined whether alterations in colonic 5-HT signalling underlie age–related changes in faecal output in mice and whether these changes were due to an increase in TNF-α. Components of the 5-HT signalling system (5-HT, 5-HIAA, SERT) and TNF-α expression were examined in the distal colon of 3, 12, 18 and 24- month old mice and faecal output and water content monitored under control conditions and following the administration of etanercept (TNF-α inhibitor; 1 mg Kg-1). Faecal output and water content were reduced in aged animals. Age increased mucosal 5-HT availability and TNF-α expression and decreased mucosal SERT expression and 5-HIAA. Etanercept treatment of old mice reversed these changes, suggesting that age-related changes in TNFα expression are an important regulator of mucosal 5-HT signalling and pellet output and water content in old mice. These data point to “anti-TNFα” drugs as potential treatments for age-related chronic constipation

Congenital hip dysplasia treated by total hip arthroplasty using cementless tapered stem in patients younger than 50 years old: results after 12-years follow-up

Background Congenital hip dysplasia may lead to severe acetabular and femoral abnormalities that can make total hip arthroplasty a challenging procedure. We assessed a series of patients affected by developmental hip dysplasia treated with total hip arthroplasty using cementless tapered stem and here we report the outcomes at long-term follow-up. Materials and methods Twenty-eight patients (24 women and 4 men) aged between 44 and 50 years (mean 47 years) were observed. Clinical evaluation was rated with the Harris Hip Score. Radiographic evaluation consisted in standard anteroposterior and axial view radiographs of the hip. According to Crowe’s classification, 16 hips presented dysplasia grade 1, 14 grade 2, and 4 grade 3. All patients were treated with total hip arthroplasty using a cementless tapered stem (Wagner Cone Prosthesis). Six patients were operated bilaterally, with a totally of 34 hips operated. After surgery, the patients were clinically and radiographically checked at 3, 6, and 12 months and yearly thereafter until an average follow-up of 12 years (range 10–14 years). Results Average Harris Hip Score was 56 ± 9 (range 45–69) preoperatively, 90 ± 9 (range 81–100) 12 months after surgery, and 91 ± 8 (range 83–100) at last follow-up. Radiographic evaluation demonstrated excellent osteointegration of the implants. Signs of bone resorption were present in 6 hips, nevertheless no evidence of loosening was observed and none of the implants has been revised. Conclusions Even in dysplasic femur, the tapered stem allowed adequate stability and orientation of the implant. We consider tapered stem a suitable option for total hip arthroplasty in developmental hip dysplasia, also in case of young patients, thanks to the favourable long-term results

Electrophysiological Properties of Embryonic Stem Cell-Derived Neurons

In vitro generation of functional neurons from embryonic stem (ES) cells and induced pluripotent stem cells offers exciting opportunities for dissecting gene function, disease modelling, and therapeutic drug screening. To realize the potential of stem cells in these biomedical applications, a complete understanding of the cell models of interest is required. While rapid advances have been made in developing the technologies for directed induction of defined neuronal subtypes, most published works focus on the molecular characterization of the derived neural cultures. To characterize the functional properties of these neural cultures, we utilized an ES cell model that gave rise to neurons expressing the green fluorescent protein (GFP) and conducted targeted whole-cell electrophysiological recordings from ES cell-derived neurons. Current-clamp recordings revealed that most neurons could fire single overshooting action potentials; in some cases multiple action potentials could be evoked by depolarization, or occurred spontaneously. Voltage-clamp recordings revealed that neurons exhibited neuronal-like currents, including an outward current typical of a delayed rectifier potassium conductance and a fast-activating, fast-inactivating inward current, typical of a sodium conductance. Taken together, these results indicate that ES cell-derived GFP+ neurons in culture display functional neuronal properties even at early stages of differentiation

Influenza vaccination coverage rates in five European countries during season 2006/07 and trends over six consecutive seasons

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>The objectives of the survey were to identify the level of influenza vaccination coverage in five European countries between 2001 and 2007, to understand the drivers and barriers to vaccination, to assess vaccination intentions for the winter 2007/08 as well as major encouraging factors for vaccination.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>Between 2001 and 2007, representative household surveys were performed with telephone or mailed (France) interviews of individuals aged 14 and above. The questionnaire used in the UK, Germany, Italy, France and Spain was essentially the same in all seasons. The data were subsequently pooled. Four target groups were defined for the analysis: 1) persons aged 65 years and over; 2) persons working in the medical field; 3) chronically ill persons and 4) combined target group composed of individuals belonging to one or more of the previous groups 1, 2 or 3.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>In 2006/07, vaccination coverage was, 25.0% in UK, 27.4% in Germany, 21.8% in Spain, 24.2% in France and 24.4% in Italy. During six influenza seasons (2001–2007), vaccination coverage showed a slight positive trend in the five countries (p ≤ 0.0001). In the elderly (≥ 65 years), across all countries, no significant trend was seen; the vaccination rate decreased non-significantly from a peak of 64.2% in season 2005/06 to 61.1% in season 2006/07. The most frequent reason for getting vaccinated was a recommendation by the family doctor or nurse (51%), and this was also perceived as the major encouraging factor for vaccination (61%). The main reason for not getting vaccinated was feeling unlikely to catch the flu (36%).</p> <p>Conclusion</p> <p>In the UK, Germany and Spain, influenza vaccination coverage rates in season 2006/07 dropped slightly compared to the previous season. However, a trend of increasing vaccination coverage was observed from 2001/02 to 2006/07 across Europe. The family doctor is the major source of encouragement for individuals getting vaccinated. Efforts to overcome the barriers to vaccination need to be put in place to reach the WHO objective of 75% coverage in the elderly by 2010. This is a major challenge to be faced by governments, healthcare workers and healthcare organisations.</p

The role of HER-2/neu expression on the survival of patients with lung cancer: a systematic review of the literature

C-erbB-2 prognostic value for survival in patients with lung cancer remains controversial. We performed a systematic review of the literature to clarify its impact. Studies were identified by an electronic search in order to aggregate the survival results, after a methodological assessment using the scale of the European Lung Cancer Working Party. To be eligible, a study had to deal with c-erbB-2 assessment in lung cancer patients and to analyse survival according to c-erbB-2 expression. In total, 30 studies were eligible: 24 studies dealt with non-small-cell lung carcinoma (NSCLC), five with adenocarcinoma and one study dealt with small-cell carcinoma. In all, 31% of the patients were positive for c-erbB-2. According to c-erbB-2 expression, 13 studies were 'negative' (significant detrimental effect on survival), one 'positive' (significant survival improvement) and 16 not significant. Significant studies had a better subscore relative to analysis and results report than nonsignificant studies. In total, 86% of the significant studies and only 56% of the nonsignificant studies were evaluable for the meta-analysis. This suggests a possible bias in our aggregated results. For NSCLC, the hazard ratio was 1.55 (95% CI: 1.29-1.86) in favour of tumours that do not express c-erbB-2. In conclusion, the overexpression of c-erbB-2 might be a factor of poor prognosis for survival in NSCLC, but there is a potential bias in favour of the significant studies with an overestimation risk of the magnitude of the true effect of c-erbB-2 overexpression.Journal ArticleResearch Support, Non-U.S. Gov'tReviewinfo:eu-repo/semantics/publishe

Utilisation of an operative difficulty grading scale for laparoscopic cholecystectomy

Background A reliable system for grading operative difficulty of laparoscopic cholecystectomy would standardise description of findings and reporting of outcomes. The aim of this study was to validate a difficulty grading system (Nassar scale), testing its applicability and consistency in two large prospective datasets. Methods Patient and disease-related variables and 30-day outcomes were identified in two prospective cholecystectomy databases: the multi-centre prospective cohort of 8820 patients from the recent CholeS Study and the single-surgeon series containing 4089 patients. Operative data and patient outcomes were correlated with Nassar operative difficultly scale, using Kendall’s tau for dichotomous variables, or Jonckheere–Terpstra tests for continuous variables. A ROC curve analysis was performed, to quantify the predictive accuracy of the scale for each outcome, with continuous outcomes dichotomised, prior to analysis. Results A higher operative difficulty grade was consistently associated with worse outcomes for the patients in both the reference and CholeS cohorts. The median length of stay increased from 0 to 4 days, and the 30-day complication rate from 7.6 to 24.4% as the difficulty grade increased from 1 to 4/5 (both p < 0.001). In the CholeS cohort, a higher difficulty grade was found to be most strongly associated with conversion to open and 30-day mortality (AUROC = 0.903, 0.822, respectively). On multivariable analysis, the Nassar operative difficultly scale was found to be a significant independent predictor of operative duration, conversion to open surgery, 30-day complications and 30-day reintervention (all p < 0.001). Conclusion We have shown that an operative difficulty scale can standardise the description of operative findings by multiple grades of surgeons to facilitate audit, training assessment and research. It provides a tool for reporting operative findings, disease severity and technical difficulty and can be utilised in future research to reliably compare outcomes according to case mix and intra-operative difficulty