Phylodynamic assessment of intervention strategies for the West African Ebola virus outbreak

Genetic analyses have provided important insights into Ebola virus spread during the recent West African outbreak, but their implications for specific intervention scenarios remain unclear. Here, we address this issue using a collection of phylodynamic approaches. We show that long-distance dispersal events were not crucial for epidemic expansion and that preventing viral lineage movement to any given administrative area would, in most cases, have had little impact. However, major urban areas were critical in attracting and disseminating the virus: preventing viral lineage movement to all three capitals simultaneously would have contained epidemic size to one-third. We also show that announcements of border closures were followed by a significant but transient effect on international virus dispersal. By quantifying the hypothetical impact of different intervention strategies, as well as the impact of barriers on dispersal frequency, our study illustrates how phylodynamic analyses can help to address specific epidemiological and outbreak control questions.info:eu-repo/semantics/publishe

Elucidating variations in the nucleotide sequence of Ebola virus associated with increasing pathogenicity

Background Ebolaviruses cause a severe and often fatal haemorrhagic fever in humans, with some species such as Ebola virus having case fatality rates approaching 90%. Currently, the worst Ebola virus outbreak since the disease was discovered is occurring in West Africa. Although thought to be a zoonotic infection, a concern is that with increasing numbers of humans being infected, Ebola virus variants could be selected which are better adapted for human-to-human transmission. Results To investigate whether genetic changes in Ebola virus become established in response to adaptation in a different host, a guinea pig model of infection was used. In this experimental system, guinea pigs were infected with Ebola virus (EBOV), which initially did not cause disease. To simulate transmission to uninfected individuals, the virus was serially passaged five times in naïve animals. As the virus was passaged, virulence increased and clinical effects were observed in the guinea pig. An RNAseq and consensus mapping approach was then used to evaluate potential nucleotide changes in the Ebola virus genome at each passage. Conclusions Upon passage in the guinea pig model, EBOV become more virulent, RNA editing and also coding changes in key proteins become established. The data suggest that the initial evolutionary trajectory of EBOV in a new host can lead to a gain in virulence. Given the circumstances of the sustained transmission of EBOV in the current outbreak in West Africa, increases in virulence may be associated with prolonged and uncontrolled epidemics of EBOV

Bronchopulmonary dysplasia: clinical aspects and preventive and therapeutic strategies

Abstract Background Bronchopulmonary dysplasia (BPD) is the result of a complex process in which several prenatal and/or postnatal factors interfere with lower respiratory tract development, leading to a severe, lifelong disease. In this review, what is presently known regarding BPD pathogenesis, its impact on long-term pulmonary morbidity and mortality and the available preventive and therapeutic strategies are discussed. Main body Bronchopulmonary dysplasia is associated with persistent lung impairment later in life, significantly impacting health services because subjects with BPD have, in most cases, frequent respiratory diseases and reductions in quality of life and life expectancy. Prematurity per se is associated with an increased risk of long-term lung problems. However, in children with BPD, impairment of pulmonary structures and function is even greater, although the characterization of long-term outcomes of BPD is difficult because the adults presently available to study have received outdated treatment. Prenatal and postnatal preventive measures are extremely important to reduce the risk of BPD. Conclusion Bronchopulmonary dysplasia is a respiratory condition that presently occurs in preterm neonates and can lead to chronic respiratory problems. Although knowledge about BPD pathogenesis has significantly increased in recent years, not all of the mechanisms that lead to lung damage are completely understood, which explains why therapeutic approaches that are theoretically effective have been only partly satisfactory or useless and, in some cases, potentially negative. However, prevention of prematurity, systematic use of nonaggressive ventilator measures, avoiding supraphysiologic oxygen exposure and administration of surfactant, caffeine and vitamin A can significantly reduce the risk of BPD development. Cell therapy is the most fascinating new measure to address the lung damage due to BPD. It is desirable that ongoing studies yield positive results to definitively solve a major clinical, social and economic problem

Virus genomes reveal factors that spread and sustained the Ebola epidemic.

The 2013-2016 West African epidemic caused by the Ebola virus was of unprecedented magnitude, duration and impact. Here we reconstruct the dispersal, proliferation and decline of Ebola virus throughout the region by analysing 1,610 Ebola virus genomes, which represent over 5% of the known cases. We test the association of geography, climate and demography with viral movement among administrative regions, inferring a classic 'gravity' model, with intense dispersal between larger and closer populations. Despite attenuation of international dispersal after border closures, cross-border transmission had already sown the seeds for an international epidemic, rendering these measures ineffective at curbing the epidemic. We address why the epidemic did not spread into neighbouring countries, showing that these countries were susceptible to substantial outbreaks but at lower risk of introductions. Finally, we reveal that this large epidemic was a heterogeneous and spatially dissociated collection of transmission clusters of varying size, duration and connectivity. These insights will help to inform interventions in future epidemics