Integrated population models poorly estimate the demographic contribution of immigration

Estimating the contribution of demographic parameters to changes in population growth is essential for understanding why populations fluctuate. Integrated population models (IPMs) offer a possibility to estimate the contributions of additional demographic parameters, for which no data have been explicitly collected—typically immigration. Such parameters are often subsequently highlighted as important drivers of population growth. Yet, accuracy in estimating their temporal variation, and consequently their contribution to changes in population growth rate, has not been investigated. To quantify the magnitude and cause of potential biases when estimating the contribution of immigration using IPMs, we simulated data (using northern wheatear Oenanthe oenanthe population estimates) from controlled scenarios to examine potential biases and how they depend on IPM parameterization, formulation of priors, the level of temporal variation in immigration and sample size. We also used empirical data on populations with known rates of immigration: Soay sheep Ovis aries and Mauritius kestrel Falco punctatus with zero immigration and grey wolf Canis lupus in Scandinavia with near-zero immigration. IPMs strongly overestimated the contribution of immigration to changes in population growth in scenarios when immigration was simulated with zero temporal variation (proportion of variance attributed to immigration = 63% for the more constrained formulation and real sample size) and in the wild populations, where the true number of immigrants was zero or near-zero (kestrel 19.1%–98.2%, sheep 4.2%–36.1% and wolf 84.0%–99.2%). Although the estimation of the contribution of immigration in the simulation study became more accurate with increasing temporal variation and sample size, it was often not possible to distinguish between an accurate estimation from data with high temporal variation versus an overestimation from data with low temporal variation. Unrealistically, large sample sizes may be required to estimate the contribution of immigration well. To minimize the risk of overestimating the contribution of immigration (or any additional parameter) in IPMs, we recommend to: (a) look for evidence of variation in immigration before investigating its contribution to population growth, (b) simulate and model data for comparison to the real data and (c) use explicit data on immigration when possible

Endoscopic sclerotherapy compared with no specific treatment for the primary prevention of bleeding from esophageal varices. A randomized controlled multicentre trial [ISRCTN03215899]

BACKGROUND: Since esophageal variceal bleeding is associated with a high mortality rate, prevention of bleeding might be expected to result in improved survival. The first trials to evaluate prophylactic sclerotherapy found a marked beneficial effect of prophylactic treatment. These results, however, were not generally accepted because of methodological aspects and because the reported incidence of bleeding in control subjects was considered unusually high. The objective of this study was to compare endoscopic sclerotherapy (ES) with nonactive treatment for the primary prophylaxis of esophageal variceal bleeding in patients with cirrhosis. METHODS: 166 patients with esophageal varices grade II, III of IV according to Paquet's classification, with evidence of active or progressive liver disease and without prior variceal bleeding, were randomized to groups receiving ES (n = 84) or no specific treatment (n = 82). Primary end-points were incidence of bleeding and mortality; secondary end-points were complications and costs. RESULTS: During a mean follow-up of 32 months variceal bleeding occurred in 25% of the patients of the ES group and in 28% of the control group. The incidence of variceal bleeding for the ES and control group was 16% and 16% at 1 year and 33% and 29% at 3 years, respectively. The 1-year survival rate was 87% for the ES group and 84% for the control group; the 3-year survival rate was 62% for each group. In the ES group one death occurred as a direct consequence of variceal bleeding compared to 9 in the other group (p = 0.01, log-rank test). Complications were comparable for the two groups. Health care costs for patients assigned to ES were estimated to be higher. Meta-analysis of a large number of trials showed that the effect of prophylactic sclerotherapy is significantly related to the baseline bleeding risk. CONCLUSION: In the present trial, prophylactic sclerotherapy did not reduce the incidence of bleeding from varices in patients with liver cirrhosis and a low to moderate bleeding risk. Although sclerotherapy lowered mortality attributable to variceal bleeding, overall survival was not affected. The effect of prophylactic sclerotherapy seems dependent on the underlying bleeding risk. A beneficial effect can only be expected for patients with a high risk for bleeding

Confronting Uncertainty in Wildlife Management: Performance of Grizzly Bear Management

Scientific management of wildlife requires confronting the complexities of natural and social systems. Uncertainty poses a central problem. Whereas the importance of considering uncertainty has been widely discussed, studies of the effects of unaddressed uncertainty on real management systems have been rare. We examined the effects of outcome uncertainty and components of biological uncertainty on hunt management performance, illustrated with grizzly bears (Ursus arctos horribilis) in British Columbia, Canada. We found that both forms of uncertainty can have serious impacts on management performance. Outcome uncertainty alone – discrepancy between expected and realized mortality levels – led to excess mortality in 19% of cases (population-years) examined. Accounting for uncertainty around estimated biological parameters (i.e., biological uncertainty) revealed that excess mortality might have occurred in up to 70% of cases. We offer a general method for identifying targets for exploited species that incorporates uncertainty and maintains the probability of exceeding mortality limits below specified thresholds. Setting targets in our focal system using this method at thresholds of 25% and 5% probability of overmortality would require average target mortality reductions of 47% and 81%, respectively. Application of our transparent and generalizable framework to this or other systems could improve management performance in the presence of uncertainty. &nbsp

Neither loss of Bik alone, nor combined loss of Bik and Noxa, accelerate murine lymphoma development or render lymphoma cells resistant to DNA damaging drugs

The pro-apoptotic BH3-only protein, BIK, is widely expressed and although many critical functions in developmental or stress-induced death have been ascribed to this protein, mice lacking Bik display no overt abnormalities. It has been postulated that Bik can serve as a tumour suppressor, on the basis that its deficiency and loss of apoptotic function have been reported in many human cancers, including lymphoid malignancies. Evasion of apoptosis is a major factor contributing to c-Myc-induced tumour development, but despite this, we found that Bik deficiency did not accelerate Eμ-Myc-induced lymphomagenesis. Co-operation between BIK and NOXA, another BH3-only protein, has been previously described, and was attributed to their complementary binding specificities to distinct subsets of pro-survival BCL-2 family proteins. Nevertheless, combined deficiency of Bik and Noxa did not alter the onset of Eμ-Myc transgene induced lymphoma development. Moreover, although p53-mediated induction of Bik has been reported, neither Eμ-Myc/Bik−/− nor Eμ-Myc/Bik−/−Noxa−/− lymphomas were more resistant than control Eμ-Myc lymphomas to killing by DNA damaging drugs, either in vitro or in vivo. These results suggest that Bik, even in combination with Noxa, is not a potent suppressor of c-Myc-driven tumourigenesis or critical for chemotherapeutic drug-induced killing of Myc-driven tumours

Accuracy of five algorithms to diagnose gambiense human African trypanosomiasis.

Algorithms to diagnose gambiense human African trypanosomiasis (HAT, sleeping sickness) are often complex due to the unsatisfactory sensitivity and/or specificity of available tests, and typically include a screening (serological), confirmation (parasitological) and staging component. There is insufficient evidence on the relative accuracy of these algorithms. This paper presents estimates of the accuracy of five algorithms used by past Médecins Sans Frontières programmes in the Republic of Congo, Southern Sudan and Uganda

The interest of gait markers in the identification of subgroups among fibromyalgia patients

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Fibromyalgia (FM) is a heterogeneous syndrome and its classification into subgroups calls for broad-based discussion. FM subgrouping, which aims to adapt treatment according to different subgroups, relies in part, on psychological and cognitive dysfunctions. Since motor control of gait is closely related to cognitive function, we hypothesized that gait markers could be of interest in the identification of FM patients' subgroups. This controlled study aimed at characterizing gait disorders in FM, and subgrouping FM patients according to gait markers such as stride frequency (SF), stride regularity (SR), and cranio-caudal power (CCP) which measures kinesia.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>A multicentre, observational open trial enrolled patients with primary FM (44.1 ± 8.1 y), and matched controls (44.1 ± 7.3 y). Outcome measurements and gait analyses were available for 52 pairs. A 3-step statistical analysis was carried out. A preliminary single blind analysis using k-means cluster was performed as an initial validation of gait markers. Then in order to quantify FM patients according to psychometric and gait variables an open descriptive analysis comparing patients and controls were made, and correlations between gait variables and main outcomes were calculated. Finally using cluster analysis, we described subgroups for each gait variable and looked for significant differences in self-reported assessments.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>SF was the most discriminating gait variable (73% of patients and controls). SF, SR, and CCP were different between patients and controls. There was a non-significant association between SF, FIQ and physical components from Short-Form 36 (p = 0.06). SR was correlated to FIQ (p = 0.01) and catastrophizing (p = 0.05) while CCP was correlated to pain (p = 0.01). The SF cluster identified 3 subgroups with a particular one characterized by normal SF, low pain, high activity and hyperkinesia. The SR cluster identified 2 distinct subgroups: the one with a reduced SR was distinguished by high FIQ, poor coping and altered affective status.</p> <p>Conclusion</p> <p>Gait analysis may provide additional information in the identification of subgroups among fibromyalgia patients. Gait analysis provided relevant information about physical and cognitive status, and pain behavior. Further studies are needed to better understand gait analysis implications in FM.</p

Lignin biomarkers as tracers of mercury sources in lakes water column

This study presents the role of specific terrigenous organic compounds as important vectors of mercury (Hg) transported from watersheds to lakes of the Canadian boreal forest. In order to differentiate the autochthonous from the allochthonous organic matter (OM), lignin derived biomarker signatures [Lambda, S/V, C/V, P/(V ? S), 3,5-Bd/V and (Ad/Al)v] were used. Since lignin is exclusively produced by terrigenous plants, this approach can give a non equivocal picture of the watershed inputs to the lakes. Moreover, it allows a characterization of the source of OM and its state of degradation. The water column of six lakes from the Canadian Shield was sampled monthly between June and September 2005. Lake total dissolved Hg concentrations and Lambda were positively correlated, meaning that Hg and ligneous inputs are linked (dissolved OM r2 = 0.62, p\0.0001; particulate OM r2 = 0.76, p\0.0001). Ratios of P/(V ? S) and 3,5-Bd/V from both dissolved OM and particulate OM of the water column suggest an inverse relationship between the progressive state of pedogenesis and maturation of the OM in soil before entering the lake, and the Hg concentrations in the water column. No relation was found between Hg levels in the lakes and the watershed flora composition—angiosperm versus gymnosperm or woody versus non-woody compounds. This study has significant implications for watershed management of ecosystems since limiting fresh terrestrial OM inputs should reduce Hg inputs to the aquatic systems. This is particularly the case for largescale land-use impacts, such as deforestation, agriculture and urbanization, associated to large quantities of soil OM being transferred to aquatic systems

A Look Back at an Ongoing Problem: Shigella dysenteriae Type 1 Epidemics in Refugee Settings in Central Africa (1993–1995)

BACKGROUND: Shigella dysenteriae type 1 (Sd1) is a cause of major dysentery outbreaks, particularly among children and displaced populations in tropical countries. Although outbreaks continue, the characteristics of such outbreaks have rarely been documented. Here, we describe the Sd1 outbreaks occurring between 1993 and 1995 in 11 refugee settlements in Rwanda, Tanzania and Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC). We also explored the links between the different types of the camps and the magnitude of the outbreaks. METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: Number of cases of bloody diarrhea and deaths were collected on a weekly basis in 11 refugee camps, and analyzed retrospectively. Between November 1993 and February 1995, 181,921 cases of bloody diarrhea were reported. Attack rates ranged from 6.3% to 39.1% and case fatality ratios (CFRs) from 1.5% to 9.0% (available for 5 camps). The CFRs were higher in children under age 5. In Tanzania where the response was rapidly deployed, the mean attack rate was lower than in camps in the region of Goma without an immediate response (13.3% versus 32.1% respectively). CONCLUSIONS/SIGNIFICANCE: This description, and the areas where data is missing, highlight both the importance of collecting data in future epidemics, difficulties in documenting outbreaks occurring in complex emergencies and most importantly, the need to assure that minimal requirements are met

The reliability of side to side measurements of upper extremity activity levels in healthy subjects

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>In both clinical and occupational settings, ambulatory sensors are becoming common for assessing all day measurements of arm motion. In order for the motion of a healthy, contralateral side to be used as a control for the involved side, the inherent side to side differences in arm usage must be minimal. The goal of the present study was to determine the reliability of side to side measurements of upper extremity activity levels in healthy subjects.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>Thirty two subjects with no upper extremity pathologies were studied. Each subject wore a triaxial accelerometer on both arms for three and a half hours. Motion was assessed using parameters previously reported in the literature. Side to side differences were compared with the intraclass correlation coefficient, standard error of the mean, minimal detectable change scores and a projected sample size analysis.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>The variables were ranked based on their percentage of minimal detectable change scores and sample sizes needed for paired t-tests. The order of these rankings was found to be identical and the top ranked parameters were activity counts per hour (MDC% = 9.5, n = 5), jerk time (MDC% = 15.8, n = 8) and percent time above 30 degrees (MDC% = 34.7, n = 9).</p> <p>Conclusions</p> <p>In general, the mean activity levels during daily activities were very similar between dominant and non-dominant arms. Specifically, activity counts per hour, jerk time, and percent time above 30 degrees were found to be the variables most likely to reveal significant difference or changes in both individuals and groups of subjects. The use of ambulatory measurements of upper extremity activity has very broad uses for occupational assessments, musculoskeletal injuries of the shoulder, elbow, wrist and hand as well as neurological pathologies.</p

Barrier-to-autointegration factor 1 (Banf1) regulates poly [ADP-ribose] polymerase 1 (PARP1) activity following oxidative DNA damage

The DNA repair capacity of human cells declines with age, in a process that is not clearly understood. Mutation of the nuclear envelope protein barrier-to-autointegration factor 1 (Banf1) has previously been shown to cause a human progeroid disorder, Néstor–Guillermo progeria syndrome (NGPS). The underlying links between Banf1, DNA repair and the ageing process are unknown. Here, we report that Banf1 controls the DNA damage response to oxidative stress via regulation of poly [ADP-ribose] polymerase 1 (PARP1). Specifically, oxidative lesions promote direct binding of Banf1 to PARP1, a critical NAD-dependent DNA repair protein, leading to inhibition of PARP1 auto-ADP-ribosylation and defective repair of oxidative lesions, in cells with increased Banf1. Consistent with this, cells from patients with NGPS have defective PARP1 activity and impaired repair of oxidative lesions. These data support a model whereby Banf1 is crucial to reset oxidative-stress-induced PARP1 activity. Together, these data offer insight into Banf1-regulated, PARP1-directed repair of oxidative lesions