Preservation of community structure in modern reef coral life and death assemblages of the Florida Keys: Implications for the Quaternary fossil record of coral reefs

The reef fossil record is the exclusive database from which analyses of the response of coral communities to environmental change over geological time scales may be gauged. However, few studies have attempted to ascertain whether the reef fossil record is a reasonably accurate representation of a once living coral community. To address this issue, we first assume that an assemblage of dead corals accumulating in close proximity to a living coral reef(including the dead portions of living colonies) provides a reasonable proxy for the material that potentially becomes fossilized We then perform a systematic comparison of the taxonomic composition and diversity present in coral life assemblages and death assemblages accumulating in reef tract and patch reef environments adjacent to Key Large, Florida. The death assemblage is distinct from the life assemblage, but matches exactly the zonation of live corals between reef tract and patch reef environments. The difference in taxonomic composition between life and death assemblages is the result of a striking growth form bias in the depth assemblage: massive coral colony forms predominate in the life assemblages in both environments, whereas branching colony forms predominate in the death assemblages. Calculations of species richness and the Shannon-Wiener index of diversity produced conflicting results. At one reef tract site, the death assemblage was more diverse than the life assemblage. Unlike the Indo-Pacific, the subset of the life assemblage retained as recognizable corals in the death assemblage is not less diverse. We attribute this difference to a more diverse "starting pool" of live corals in the Indo-Pacific. Fidelity indices were similar to those calculated for life and death assemblages occurring in the Indo-Pacific, but very different than those compiled for molluscan shelly assemblages. If the death assemblages we examined represent a reasonable proxy for a potential fossil assemblage, analyses of relative changes in coral reef community structure during Quaternary time should provide reliable base line data for assessing the response of modern Caribbean reefs to global change

Differential response to abiotic stress controls species distributions at biogeographic transition zones

Understanding range limits is critical to predicting species responses to climate change. Subtropical environments, where many species overlap at their range margins, are cooler, more light-limited and variable than tropical environments. It is thus likely that species respond variably to these multi-stressor regimes and that factors other than mean climatic conditions drive biodiversity patterns. Here, we tested these hypotheses for scleractinian corals at their high-latitude range limits in eastern Australia and investigated the role of mean climatic conditions and of parameters linked to abiotic stress in explaining the distribution and abundance of different groups of species. We found that environmental drivers varied among taxa and were predominantly linked to abiotic stress. The distribution and abundance of tropical species and gradients in species richness (alpha diversity) and turnover (beta diversity) were best explained by light limitation, whereas minimum temperatures and temperature fluctuations best explained gradients in subtropical species, species nestedness and functional diversity. Variation in community structure (considering species composition and abundance) was most closely linked to the combined thermal and light regime. Our study demonstrates the role of abiotic stress in controlling the distribution of species towards their high-latitude range limits and suggests that, at biogeographic transition zones, robust predictions of the impacts of climate change require approaches that account for various aspects of physiological stress and for species abundances and characteristics. These findings support the hypothesis that abiotic stress controls high-latitude range limits and caution that projections solely based on mean temperature could underestimate species’ vulnerabilities to climate change

Local and regional controls of phylogenetic structure at the high-latitude range limits of corals

Understanding how range-edge populations will respond to climate change is an urgent research priority. Here, we used a phylogenetic community ecology approach to examine how ecological and evolutionary processes shape biodiversity patterns of scleractinian corals at their high-latitude range limits in eastern Australia. We estimated phylogenetic signal in seven ecologically important functional traits and conducted tests of phylogenetic structure at local and regional scales using the net relatedness (NRI) and nearest taxon indices (NTI) for the presence/absence and abundance data. Regional tests showed light phylogenetic clustering, indicating that coral species found in this subtropical-to-temperate transition zone are more closely related to each other than are species on the nearby, more northerly Great Barrier Reef. Local tests revealed variable patterns of phylogenetic clustering and overdispersion and higher than expected phylogenetic turnover among sites. In combination, these results are broadly consistent with the hierarchical filtering model, whereby species pass through a regional climatic filter based on their tolerances for marginal conditions and subsequently segregate into local assemblages according to the relative strength of habitat filtering and species interactions. Conservatism of tested traits suggests that corals will likely track their niches with climate change. Nevertheless, high turnover of lineages among sites indicates that range shifts will probably vary among species and highlights the vulnerability and conservation significance of high-latitude reefs

Ecological and methodological drivers of species' distribution and phenology responses to climate change

Climate change is shifting species’ distribution and phenology. Ecological traits, such as mobility or reproductive mode, explain variation in observed rates of shift for some taxa. However, estimates of relationships between traits and climate responses could be influenced by how responses are measured. We compiled a global data set of 651 published marine species’ responses to climate change, from 47 papers on distribution shifts and 32 papers on phenology change. We assessed the relative importance of two classes of predictors of the rate of change, ecological traits of the responding taxa and methodological approaches for quantifying biological responses. Methodological differences explained 22% of the variation in range shifts, more than the 7.8% of the variation explained by ecological traits. For phenology change, methodological approaches accounted for 4% of the variation in measurements, whereas 8% of the variation was explained by ecological traits. Our ability to predict responses from traits was hindered by poor representation of species from the tropics, where temperature isotherms are moving most rapidly. Thus, the mean rate of distribution change may be underestimated by this and other global syntheses. Our analyses indicate that methodological approaches should be explicitly considered when designing, analysing and comparing results among studies. To improve climate impact studies, we recommend that (1) reanalyses of existing time series state how the existing data sets may limit the inferences about possible climate responses; (2) qualitative comparisons of species’ responses across different studies be limited to studies with similar methodological approaches; (3) meta-analyses of climate responses include methodological attributes as covariates; and (4) that new time series be designed to include the detection of early warnings of change or ecologically relevant change. Greater consideration of methodological attributes will improve the accuracy of analyses that seek to quantify the role of climate change in species’ distribution and phenology changes

Mangroves enhance the biomass of coral reef fish communities in the Caribbean

Mangrove forests are one of the world's most threatened tropical ecosystems with global loss exceeding 35% (ref. 1). Juvenile coral reef fish often inhabit mangroves, but the importance of these nurseries to reef fish population dynamics has not been quantified. Indeed, mangroves might be expected to have negligible influence on reef fish communities: juvenile fish can inhabit alternative habitats and fish populations may be regulated by other limiting factors such as larval supply or fishing. Here we show that mangroves are unexpectedly important, serving as an intermediate nursery habitat that may increase the survivorship of young fish. Mangroves in the Caribbean strongly influence the community structure of fish on neighbouring coral reefs. In addition, the biomass of several commercially important species is more than doubled when adult habitat is connected to mangroves. The largest herbivorous fish in the Atlantic, Scarus guacamaia, has a functional dependency on mangroves and has suffered local extinction after mangrove removal. Current rates of mangrove deforestation are likely to have severe deleterious consequences for the ecosystem function, fisheries productivity and resilience of reefs. Conservation efforts should protect connected corridors of mangroves, seagrass beds and coral reefs

Popular media records reveal multi-decadal trends in recreational fishing catch rates

This is the final version of the article. Available from Public Library of Science via the DOI in this record.Despite threats to human wellbeing from ecological degradation, public engagement with this issue remains at low levels. However, studies have shown that crafting messages to resonate with people's personal experiences can enhance engagement. Recreational fishing is one of the principal ways in which people interact with aquatic environments, but long-term data from this perspective are considered rare. We uncovered 852 popular media records of recreational fishing for an Australian estuary across a 140-year period. Using information contained in these articles we analysed the species composition of recreational catches over time and constructed two distinct time series of catch and effort (n fish fisher-1 trip-1; kg fish fisher-1 trip-1) for recreational fishing trips and fishing club competitions (mean n and kg fish caught across all competitors, and n and kg fish caught by the competition winner). Reported species composition remained similar over time. Catch rates reported from recreational fishing trips (1900-1998) displayed a significant decline, averaging 32.5 fish fisher-1 trip-1 prior to 1960, and 18.8 fish fisher-1 trip-1 post-1960. Mean n fish fisher-1 competition-1 (1913-1983) also significantly declined, but best n fish fisher-1 competition-1 (1925-1980) displayed no significant change, averaging 31.2 fish fisher-1 competition-1 over the time series. Mean and best kg fish fisher-1 competition-1 trends also displayed no significant change, averaging 4.2 and 9.9 kg fisher-1 competition-1, respectively. These variable trends suggest that while some fishers experienced diminishing returns in this region over the last few decades, the most skilled inshore fishers were able to maintain their catch rates, highlighting the difficulties inherent in crafting conservation messages that will resonate with all sections of a community. Despite these challenges, this research demonstrates that popular media sources can provide multiple long-term trends at spatial scales, in units and via a recreational experience that many people can relate to.RT received support from the Noosa Council, and from a Barbara Thomas Fellowship from the Thomas Foundation and the Nature Conservancy. JP is supported by the Australian Research Council’s Centre of Excellence for Coral Reef Studies

Trends and transitions observed in an iconic recreational fishery across 140 years

This is the author accepted manuscript. The final version is available from Elsevier via the DOI in this recordRecreational fishing has taken place for centuries and is a globally popular activity, yet a lack of monitoring data means historical trends in recreational fisheries are often little understood compared to their commercial counterparts. We examined archival sources and conducted fisher interviews to examine changes in the Queensland recreational snapper (Chrysophrys auratus) fishery throughout its documented history. Over a 140-year period, we extracted data on technological innovations, catch rate trends, and social and regulatory change. Technological innovations were evident throughout the history of the recreational fishery. During the 1960s, 1990s and 2000s, several periods of rapid technological transition occurred, where a technology was adopted by >50% of recreational fishers within 10 years of its introduction. Since the 1960s, the timing and rate of adoption of fish-finding technology by recreational fishers has kept pace with the commercial sector. These technological advances have profoundly increased recreational targeting ability, but despite these advances, recalled recreational catch rate trends demonstrated significant declines over the course of the 20th century. While minimum size limits have been imposed on the snapper fishery for over a century, in contrast, the introduction of recreational in-possession limits only commenced in the 1990s. At this time, the beginnings of a societal transition was also observed, where longstanding ‘take all’ attitudes towards fishing began to be replaced by a more conservation minded ethic. This shift was driven in part by the changing regulatory landscape, as well as wider attitudinal change influenced by the media and shifting societal norms, although whether this led to a reduction in total recreational catch remains unclear due to a lack of fishery-wide monitoring data and the open access nature of the recreational fishery. This study demonstrates that in the absence of systematic data collection, archival sources and fisher interviews can contribute an interdisciplinary knowledge base for understanding and interpreting historical fishery trends.RT, SB and JP were supported by the ARC Centre of Excellence for Coral Reef Studies. Fieldwork costs were supported by the University of Queensland’s New Staff Start-Up Fund, awarded to RT, and the Fisheries Research Development Corporation (FRDC) on behalf of the Australian Government, report 2013-018 "Using commercial and recreational fisher knowledge to reconstruct historical catch rates for Queensland pink snapper (Pagrus auratus) and Spanish mackerel (Scomberomorus commerson): long-term data for incorporation into future stock assessments”

Strengthening confidence in climate change impact science

Aim: To assess confidence in conclusions about climate-driven biological change through time, and identify approaches for strengthening confidence scientific conclusions about ecological impacts of climate change. Location: Global. Methods: We outlined a framework for strengthening confidence in inferences drawn from biological climate impact studies through the systematic integration of prior expectations, long-term data and quantitative statistical procedures. We then developed a numerical confidence index (Cindex) and used it to evaluate current practices in 208 studies of marine climate impacts comprising 1735 biological time series. Results: Confidence scores for inferred climate impacts varied widely from 1 to 16 (very low to high confidence). Approximately 35% of analyses were not associated with clearly stated prior expectations and 65% of analyses did not test putative non-climate drivers of biological change. Among the highest-scoring studies, 91% tested prior expectations, 86% formulated expectations for alternative drivers but only 63% statistically tested them. Higher confidence scores observed in studies that did not detect a change or tracked multiple species suggest publication bias favouring impact studies that are consistent with climate change. The number of time series showing climate impacts was a poor predictor of average confidence scores for a given group, reinforcing that vote-counting methodology is not appropriate for determining overall confidence in inferences. Main conclusions: Climate impacts research is expected to attribute biological change to climate change with measurable confidence. Studies with long-term, high-resolution data, appropriate statistics and tests of alternative drivers earn higher Cindex scores, suggesting these should be given greater weight in impact assessments. Together with our proposed framework, the results of our Cindex analysis indicate how the science of detecting and attributing biological impacts to climate change can be strengthened through the use of evidence-based prior expectations and thorough statistical analyses, even when data are limited, maximizing the impact of the diverse and growing climate change ecology literature

Setting the Record Straight: Assessing the Reliability of Retrospective Accounts of Change

This is the final version of the article. Available from Wiley via the DOI in this record.Ecological degradation is accelerating, reducing our ability to detect and reverse declines. Resource user accounts have the potential to provide critical information on past change but their reliability can rarely be tested, hence they are often perceived as less valid than other forms of scientific data. We compared individual fishers' catch records, recorded 1-50 years ago, with their memories of past good, typical and poor catches for the corresponding time period. Good and poor catches were recalled with reasonable accuracy, matching variability in recorded catch with no significant change observed over time. Typical recalled catches were overestimated and became significantly more exaggerated over time, but were more comparable to mean than median recorded values. While accuracy of resource users' memory varied with the type of information recalled, our results suggest that carefully structured interview questions can produce reliable quantitative data to inform resource management, even after several decades have elapsed.All authors were supported by the Australian Research Council’s Centre for Excellence for Coral Reef Studies. Fieldwork components were supported by The University of Queensland’s New Staff Start-Up Fund (Project No. 2012000643) and the FRDC (Project No. 2013–018), on behalf of the Australian Government

Historical spatial reconstruction of a spawning-aggregation fishery

This is the author accepted manuscript. The final version is available from the publisher via the DOI in this record.Aggregations of individual animals that form for breeding purposes are a critical ecological processfor many species, yet these aggregations are inherently vulnerable to exploitation. Studies of the decline ofexploited populations that form breeding aggregations tend to focus on catch rate and thus often overlookreductions in geographic range. We tested the hypothesis that catch rate and site occupancy of exploited fish-spawning aggregations (FSAs) decline in synchrony over time. We used the Spanish mackerel (Scomberomoruscommerson) spawning-aggregation fishery in the Great Barrier Reef as a case study. Data were compiled fromhistorical newspaper archives, fisher knowledge, and contemporary fishery logbooks to reconstruct catchrates and exploitation trends from the inception of the fishery. Our fine-scale analysis of catch and effort dataspanned 103 years (1911–2013) and revealed a spatial expansion of fishing effort. Effort shifted offshore at arate of 9.4 nm/decade, and 2.9 newly targeted FSAs were reported/decade. Spatial expansion of effort maskedthe sequential exploitation, commercial extinction, and loss of 70% of exploited FSAs. After standardizing forimprovements in technological innovations, average catch rates declined by 90.5% from 1934 to 2011 (from119.4 to 11.41 fish/vessel/trip). Mean catch rate of Spanish mackerel and occupancy of exploited mackerelFSAs were not significantly related. Our study revealed a special kind of shifting spatial baseline in which acontraction in exploited FSAs occurred undetected. Knowledge of temporally and spatially explicit informationon FSAs can be relevant for the conservation and management of FSA species.S.B., R.T., andJ.P. were supported by the Australian Research Council(ARC) Centre of Excellence for Coral Reef Studies and the Fisheries Research and Development Corporation(project 2013-018). A.T. and S.B. were supported by funding from the Fisheries Research and Development Corporation (project 2010-007) on behalf of the Australian Government