Estimating SARS-CoV-2 variant fitness and the impact of interventions in England using statistical and geo-spatial agent-based models

The SARS-CoV-2 epidemic has been extended by the evolution of more transmissible viral variants. In autumn 2020, the B.1.177 lineage became the dominant variant in England, before being replaced by the B.1.1.7 (Alpha) lineage in late 2020, with the sweep occurring at different times in each region. This period coincided with a large number of non-pharmaceutical interventions (e.g. lockdowns) to control the epidemic, making it difficult to estimate the relative transmissibility of variants. In this paper, we model the spatial spread of these variants in England using a meta-population agent-based model which correctly characterizes the regional variation in cases and distribution of variants. As a test of robustness, we additionally estimated the relative transmissibility of multiple variants using a statistical model based on the renewal equation, which simultaneously estimates the effective reproduction number R. Relative to earlier variants, the transmissibility of B.1.177 is estimated to have increased by 1.14 (1.12–1.16) and that of Alpha by 1.71 (1.65–1.77). The vaccination programme starting in December 2020 is also modelled. Counterfactual simulations demonstrate that the vaccination programme was essential for reopening in March 2021, and that if the January lockdown had started one month earlier, up to 30 k (24 k–38 k) deaths could have been prevented

PopART-IBM, a highly efficient stochastic individual-based simulation model of generalised HIV epidemics developed in the context of the HPTN 071 (PopART) trial

Mathematical models are powerful tools in HIV epidemiology, producing quantitative projections of key indicators such as HIV incidence and prevalence. In order to improve the accuracy of predictions, such models need to incorporate a number of behavioural and biological heterogeneities, especially those related to the sexual network within which HIV transmission occurs. An individual-based model, which explicitly models sexual partnerships, is thus often the most natural type of model to choose. In this paper we present PopART-IBM, a computationally efficient individual-based model capable of simulating 50 years of an HIV epidemic in a large, high-prevalence community in under a minute. We show how the model calibrates within a Bayesian inference framework to detailed age- and sex-stratified data from multiple sources on HIV prevalence, awareness of HIV status, ART status, and viral suppression for an HPTN 071 (PopART) study community in Zambia, and present future projections of HIV prevalence and incidence for this community in the absence of trial intervention

Multi-timescale analysis of a metabolic network in synthetic biology: a kinetic model for 3-hydroxypropionic acid production via beta-alanine

A biosustainable production route for 3-hydroxypropionic acid (3HP), an important platform chemical, would allow 3HP to be produced without using fossil fuels. We are interested in investigating a potential biochemical route to 3HP from pyruvate through b -alanine and, in this paper, we develop and solve a mathematical model for the reaction kinetics of the metabolites involved in this pathway. We consider two limiting cases, one where the levels of pyruvate are never replenished, the other where the levels of pyruvate are continuously replenished and thus kept constant. We exploit the natural separation of both the time scales and the metabolite concentrations to make significant asymptotic progress in understanding the system without resorting to computationally expensive parameter sweeps. Using our asymptotic results, we are able to predict the most important reactions to maximize the production of 3HP in this system while reducing the maximum amount of the toxic intermediate compound malonic semialdehyde present at any one time, and thus we are able to recommend which enzymes experimentalists should focus on manipulating

Optimal Swimming Speed in Head Currents and Effects on Distance Movement of Winter-Migrating Fish

Migration is a commonly described phenomenon in nature that is often caused by spatial and temporal differences in habitat quality. However, as migration requires energy, the timing of migration may depend not only on differences in habitat quality, but also on temporal variation in migration costs. Such variation can, for instance, arise from changes in wind or current velocity for migrating birds and fish, respectively. Whereas behavioural responses of birds to such changing environmental conditions have been relatively well described, this is not the case for fish, although fish migrations are both ecologically and economically important. We here use passive and active telemetry to study how winter migrating roach regulate swimming speed and distance travelled per day in response to variations in head current velocity. Furthermore, we provide theoretical predictions on optimal swimming speeds in head currents and relate these to our empirical results. We show that fish migrate farther on days with low current velocity, but travel at a greater ground speed on days with high current velocity. The latter result agrees with our predictions on optimal swimming speed in head currents, but disagrees with previously reported predictions suggesting that fish ground speed should not change with head current velocity. We suggest that this difference is due to different assumptions on fish swimming energetics. We conclude that fish are able to adjust both swimming speed and timing of swimming activity during migration to changes in head current velocity in order to minimize energy use

Using population admixture to help complete maps of the human genome

Tens of millions of base pairs of euchromatic human genome sequence, including many protein-coding genes, have no known location in the human genome. We describe an approach for localizing the human genome's missing pieces by utilizing the patterns of genome sequence variation created by population admixture. We mapped the locations of 70 scaffolds spanning four million base pairs of the human genome's unplaced euchromatic sequence, including more than a dozen protein-coding genes, and identified eight large novel inter-chromosomal segmental duplications. We find that most of these sequences are hidden in the genome's heterochromatin, particularly its pericentromeric regions. Many cryptic, pericentromeric genes are expressed in RNA and have been maintained intact for millions of years while their expression patterns diverged from those of paralogous genes elsewhere in the genome. We describe how knowledge of the locations of these sequences can inform disease association and genome biology studies

High Diversity at PRDM9 in Chimpanzees and Bonobos

BACKGROUND: The PRDM9 locus in mammals has increasingly attracted research attention due to its role in mediating chromosomal recombination and possible involvement in hybrid sterility and hence speciation processes. The aim of this study was to characterize sequence variation at the PRDM9 locus in a sample of our closest living relatives, the chimpanzees and bonobos. METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: PRDM9 contains a highly variable and repetitive zinc finger array. We amplified this domain using long-range PCR and determined the DNA sequences using conventional Sanger sequencing. From 17 chimpanzees representing three subspecies and five bonobos we obtained a total of 12 alleles differing at the nucleotide level. Based on a data set consisting of our data and recently published Pan PRDM9 sequences, we found that at the subspecies level, diversity levels did not differ among chimpanzee subspecies or between chimpanzee subspecies and bonobos. In contrast, the sample of chimpanzees harbors significantly more diversity at PRDM9 than samples of humans. Pan PRDM9 shows signs of rapid evolution including no alleles or ZnFs in common with humans as well as signals of positive selection in the residues responsible for DNA binding. CONCLUSIONS AND SIGNIFICANCE: The high number of alleles specific to the genus Pan, signs of positive selection in the DNA binding residues, and reported lack of conservation of recombination hotspots between chimpanzees and humans suggest that PRDM9 could be active in hotspot recruitment in the genus Pan. Chimpanzees and bonobos are considered separate species and do not have overlapping ranges in the wild, making the presence of shared alleles at the amino acid level between the chimpanzee and bonobo species interesting in view of the hypothesis that PRDM9 plays a universal role in interspecific hybrid sterility

Quantitative RT-PCR analysis of differentially expressed genes in Quercus suber in response to Phytophthora cinnamomi infection

cDNA-AFLP methodology was used to gain insight into gene fragments differentially present in the mRNA profiles of Quercus suber roots infected with zoospores of Phytophthora cinnamomi at different post challenge time points. Fifty-three transcript-derived fragments (TDFs) were identified and sequenced. Six candidate genes were selected based on their expression patterns and homology to genes known to play a role in defence. They encode a cinnamyl alcohol dehydrogenase2 (QsCAD2), a protein disulphide isomerase (QsPDI), a CC-NBS-LRR resistance protein (QsRPc), a thaumatin-like protein (QsTLP), a chitinase (QsCHI) and a 1,3-β-glucanase (QsGlu). Evaluation of the expression of these genes by quantitative polymerase chain reaction (qPCR) revealed that transcript levels of QsRPc, QsCHI, QsCAD2 and QsPDI increased during the first 24 h post-inoculation, while those of thaumatin-like protein decreased. No differential expression was observed for 1,3-β-glucanase (QsGlu).Four candidate reference genes, polymerase II (QsRPII), eukaryotic translation initiation factor 5A (QsEIF-5A), β-tubulin (QsTUB) and a medium subunit family protein of clathrin adaptor complexes (QsCACs) were assessed to determine the most stable internal references for qRT-PCR normalization in the Phytophthora-Q. suber pathosystem in root tissues. Those found to be more stable, QsRPII and QsCACs, were used as internal reference in the present work.Knowledge on the Quercus defence mechanisms against biotic stress is scarce. This study provides an insight into the gene profiling of a few important genes of Q. suber in response to P. cinnamomi infection contributing to the knowledge of the molecular interactions involving Quercus and root pathogens that can be useful in the future to understand the mechanisms underlying oak resistance to soil-borne oomycetes.Peer Reviewe