Evaluating the predictive performance of empirical estimators of natural mortality rate using information on over 200 fish species

Many methods have been developed in the last 70 years to predict the natural mortality rate, M, of a stock based on empirical evidence from comparative life history studies. These indirect or empirical methods are used in most stock assessments to (i) obtain estimates of M in the absence of direct information, (ii) check on the reasonableness of a direct estimate of M, (iii) examine the range of plausible M estimates for the stock under consideration, and (iv) define prior distributions for Bayesian analyses. The two most cited empirical methods have appeared in the literature over 2500 times to date. Despite the importance of these methods, there is no consensus in the literature on how well these methods work in terms of prediction error or how their performance may be ranked. We evaluate estimators based on various combinations of maximum age (t(max)), growth parameters, and water temperature by seeing how well they reproduce \u3e200 independent, direct estimates of M. We use tenfold cross-validation to estimate the prediction error of the estimators and to rank their performance. With updated and carefully reviewed data, we conclude that a t(max)-based estimator performs the best among all estimators evaluated. The t(max)-based estimators in turn perform better than the Alverson-Carney method based on t(max) and the von Bertalanffy K coefficient, Pauly\u27s method based on growth parameters and water temperature and methods based just on K. It is possible to combine two independent methods by computing a weighted mean but the improvement over the t(max)-based methods is slight. Based on cross-validation prediction error, model residual patterns, model parsimony, and biological considerations, we recommend the use of a t(max)-based estimator (M = 4.899t(max)(-0.916), prediction error = 0.32) when possible and a growth-based method (M = 4.118K(0.73)L(infinity)(-0.33), prediction error = 0.6) otherwise

The logic of comparative life history studies for estimating key parameters, with a focus on natural mortality rate

There are a number of key parameters in population dynamics that are difficult to estimate, such as natural mortality rate, intrinsic rate of population growth, and stock-recruitment relationships. Often, these parameters of a stock are, or can be, estimated indirectly on the basis of comparative life history studies. That is, the relationship between a difficult to estimate parameter and life history correlates is examined over a wide variety of species in order to develop predictive equations. The form of these equations may be derived from life history theory or simply be suggested by exploratory data analysis. Similarly, population characteristics such as potential yield can be estimated by making use of a relationship between the population parameter and bio-chemico-physical characteristics of the ecosystem. Surprisingly, little work has been done to evaluate how well these indirect estimators work and, in fact, there is little guidance on how to conduct comparative life history studies and how to evaluate them. We consider five issues arising in such studies: (i) the parameters of interest may be ill-defined idealizations of the real world, (ii) true values of the parameters are not known for any species, (iii) selecting data based on the quality of the estimates can introduce a host of problems, (iv) the estimates that are available for comparison constitute a non-random sample of species from an ill-defined population of species of interest, and (v) the hierarchical nature of the data (e.g. stocks within species within genera within families, etc., with multiple observations at each level) warrants consideration. We discuss how these issues can be handled and how they shape the kinds of questions that can be asked of a database of life history studies

Factors associated with alcohol reduction in harmful and hazardous drinkers following alcohol brief intervention in Scotland: a qualitative enquiry

Background: Alcohol Brief Intervention (ABI) uses a motivational counselling approach to support individuals to reduce excessive alcohol consumption. There is growing evidence on ABI’s use within various health care settings, although how they work and which components enhance success is largely unknown. This paper reports on the qualitative part of a mixed methods study. It explores enablers and barriers associated with alcohol reduction following an ABI. It focuses on alcohol’s place within participants’ lives and their personal perspectives on reducing consumption. There are a number of randomised controlled trials in this field though few ABI studies have addressed the experiences of hazardous/harmful drinkers. This study examines factors associated with alcohol reduction in harmful/hazardous drinkers following ABI. Methods: This qualitative study was underpinned by a realist evaluation approach and involved semistructured interviews with ten harmful or hazardous alcohol drinkers. Participants (n = 10) were from the intervention arm of a randomised controlled trial (n = 124). All had received ABI, a 20 min motivational counselling interview, six months previously, and had reduced their alcohol consumption. Interviews were recorded, transcribed verbatim and thematically analysed. Results: Participants described their views on alcohol, its’ place in their lives, their personal perspectives on reducing their consumption and future aspirations. Conclusions: The findings provide an insight into participants’ views on alcohol, ABI, and the barriers and enablers to change. Participants described a cost benefit analysis, with some conscious consideration of the advantages and disadvantages of reducing intake or abstaining from alcohol. Findings suggest that, whilst hospital admission can act as a catalyst, encouraging individuals to reflect on their alcohol consumption through ABI may consolidate this, turning this reflective moment into action. Sustainability may be enhanced by the presence of a ‘significant other’ who encourages and experiences benefit. In addition having a purpose or structure with activities linked to employment and/or social and leisure pursuits offers the potential to enhance and sustain reduced alcohol consumption. Trial registration: Trial registration number TRN NCT00982306 September 22nd 200

Prioritising surveillance for alien organisms transported as stowaways on ships travelling to South Africa

The global shipping network facilitates the transportation and introduction of marine and terrestrial organisms to regions where they are not native, and some of these organisms become invasive. South Africa was used as a case study to evaluate the potential for shipping to contribute to the introduction and establishment of marine and terrestrial alien species (i.e. establishment debt) and to assess how this varies across shipping routes and seasons. As a proxy for the number of species introduced (i.e. 'colonisation pressure') shipping movement data were used to determine, for each season, the number of ships that visited South African ports from foreign ports and the number of days travelled between ports. Seasonal marine and terrestrial environmental similarity between South African and foreign ports was then used to estimate the likelihood that introduced species would establish. These data were used to determine the seasonal relative contribution of shipping routes to South Africa's marine and terrestrial establishment debt. Additionally, distribution data were used to identify marine and terrestrial species that are known to be invasive elsewhere and which might be introduced to each South African port through shipping routes that have a high relative contribution to establishment debt. Shipping routes from Asian ports, especially Singapore, have a particularly high relative contribution to South Africa's establishment debt, while among South African ports, Durban has the highest risk of being invaded. There was seasonal variation in the shipping routes that have a high relative contribution to the establishment debt of the South African ports. The presented method provides a simple way to prioritise surveillance effort and our results indicate that, for South Africa, port-specific prevention strategies should be developed, a large portion of the available resources should be allocated to Durban, and seasonal variations and their consequences for prevention strategies should be explored further. (Résumé d'auteur

Postglacial expansion of the arctic keystone copepod calanus glacialis

Calanus glacialis, a major contributor to zooplankton biomass in the Arctic shelf seas, is a key link between primary production and higher trophic levels that may be sensitive to climate warming. The aim of this study was to explore genetic variation in contemporary populations of this species to infer possible changes during the Quaternary period, and to assess its population structure in both space and time. Calanus glacialis was sampled in the fjords of Spitsbergen (Hornsund and Kongsfjorden) in 2003, 2004, 2006, 2009 and 2012. The sequence of a mitochondrial marker, belonging to the ND5 gene, selected for the study was 1249 base pairs long and distinguished 75 unique haplotypes among 140 individuals that formed three main clades. There was no detectable pattern in the distribution of haplotypes by geographic distance or over time. Interestingly, a Bayesian skyline plot suggested that a 1000-fold increase in population size occurred approximately 10,000 years before present, suggesting a species expansion after the Last Glacial Maximum.GAME from the National Science Centre, the Polish Ministry of Science and Higher Education Iuventus Plus [IP2014 050573]; FCT-PT [CCMAR/Multi/04326/2013]; [2011/03/B/NZ8/02876

Needle to needle robot-assisted manufacture of cell therapy products

Advanced therapeutic medicinal products (ATMPs) have emerged as novel therapies for untreatable diseases, generating the need for large volumes of high-quality, clinically-compliant GMP cells to replace costly, high-risk and limited scale manual expansion processes. We present the design of a fully automated, robot-assisted platform incorporating the use of multiliter stirred tank bioreactors for scalable production of adherent human stem cells. The design addresses a needle-to-needle closed process incorporating automated bone marrow collection, cell isolation, expansion, and collection into cryovials for patient delivery. AUTOSTEM, a modular, adaptable, fully closed system ensures no direct operator interaction with biological material; all commands are performed through a graphic interface. Seeding of source material, process monitoring, feeding, sampling, harvesting and cryopreservation are automated within the closed platform, comprising two clean room levels enabling both open and closed processes. A bioprocess based on human MSCs expanded on microcarriers was used for proof of concept. Utilizing equivalent culture parameters, the AUTOSTEM robot-assisted platform successfully performed cell expansion at the liter scale, generating results comparable to manual production, while maintaining cell quality postprocessing

The Relationship Between HR Practices and Firm Performance: Examining Causal Order

Significant research attention has been devoted to examining the relationship between HR practices and firm performance, and the research support has assumed HR as the causal variable. Using data from 45 business units (with 62 data points), this study examines how measures of HR practices correlate with past, concurrent, and future operational performance measures. The results indicate that correlations with performance measures at all three times are both high and invariant, and that controlling for past or concurrent performance virtually eliminates the correlation of HR with future performance. Implications are discussed

Lineage Divergence and Historical Gene Flow in the Chinese Horseshoe Bat (Rhinolophus sinicus)

PMCID: PMC3581519This is an open-access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License, which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original author and source are credited