Prediction Possibility in the Fractal Overlap Model of Earthquakes

The two-fractal overlap model of earthquake shows that the contact area distribution of two fractal surfaces follows power law decay in many cases and this agrees with the Guttenberg-Richter power law. Here, we attempt to predict the large events (earthquakes) in this model through the overlap time-series analysis. Taking only the Cantor sets, the overlap sizes (contact areas) are noted when one Cantor set moves over the other with uniform velocity. This gives a time series containing different overlap sizes. Our numerical study here shows that the cumulative overlap size grows almost linearly with time and when the overlapsizes are added up to a pre-assigned large event (earthquake) and then reset to `zero' level, the corresponding cumulative overlap sizes grows upto some discrete (quantised) levels. This observation should help to predict the possibility of `large events' in this (overlap) time series.Comment: 6 pages, 6 figures. To be published as proc. NATO conf. CMDS-10, Soresh, Israel, July 2003. Eds. D. J. Bergman & E. Inan, KLUWER PUB

Can air pollution affect tear film stability? a cross-sectional study in the aftermath of an explosion accident

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>After an explosion and fire in two tanks containing contaminated oil and sulphur products in a Norwegian industrial harbour in 2007, the surrounding area was polluted. This caused an intense smell, lasting until the waste was removed two years later. The present study reports examinations of tear film break up time among the population. The examinations were carried out because many of the people in the area complained of sore eyes. The purpose of the study was to assess the relationship between living or working close to the polluted area and tear film stability one and a half years after the explosion.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>All persons working or living in an area less than six kilometres from the explosion site were invited to take part in the study together with a similar number of persons matched for age and gender living more than 20 kilometres away. Three groups were established: workers in the explosion area and inhabitants near the explosion area (but not working there) were considered to have been exposed, and inhabitants far away (who did not work in the explosion area) were considered to be unexposed. A total of 734 people were examined, and the response rate was 76 percent. Tear film stability was studied by assessing non-invasive break-up time (NIBUT) using ocular microscopy. In addition Self-reported Break Up Time (SBUT) was assessed by recording the time the subject could keep his or hers eyes open without blinking when watching a fixed point on a wall. Background information was obtained using a questionnaire. Non-parametric Wilcoxon-Mann-Whitney-tests with exact p-values and multiple logistic regression analyses were performed.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>Both NIBUT and SBUT were shorter among the male exposed workers than among the inhabitants both near and far away from the explosion area. This was also found for SBUT among males in a multiple logistic regression analysis, adjusting for age and smoking.</p> <p>Conclusions</p> <p>Reduced tear film stability was found among workers in an area where an explosion accident had occurred.</p

Palaeoclimate inferred from δ18O and palaeobotanical indicators in freshwater tufa of Lake Äntu Sinijärv, Estonia

We investigated a 3.75-m-long lacustrine sediment record from Lake Äntu Sinijärv, northern Estonia, which has a modeled basal age >12,800 cal yr BP. Our multi-proxy approach focused on the stable oxygen isotope composition (δ18O) of freshwater tufa. Our new palaeoclimate information for the Eastern Baltic region, based on high-resolution δ18O data (219 samples), is supported by pollen and plant macrofossil data. Radiocarbon dates were used to develop a core chronology and estimate sedimentation rates. Freshwater tufa precipitation started ca. 10,700 cal yr BP, ca. 2,000 years later than suggested by previous studies on the same lake. Younger Dryas cooling is documented clearly in Lake Äntu Sinijärv sediments by abrupt appearance of diagnostic pollen (Betula nana, Dryas octopetala), highest mineral matter content in sediments (up to 90 %) and low values of δ18O (less than −12 ‰). Globally recognized 9.3- and 8.2-ka cold events are weakly defined by negative shifts in δ18O values, to −11.3 and −11.7 ‰, respectively, and low concentrations of herb pollen and charcoal particles. The Holocene thermal maximum (HTM) is palaeobotanically well documented by the first appearance and establishment of nemoral thermophilous taxa and presence of water lilies requiring warm conditions. Isotope values show an increasing trend during the HTM, from −11.5 to −10.5 ‰. Relatively stable environmental conditions, represented by only a small-scale increase in δ18O (up to 1 ‰) and high pollen concentrations between 5,000 and 3,000 cal yr BP, were followed by a decrease in δ18O, reaching the most negative value (−12.7 ‰) recorded in the freshwater tufa ca. 900 cal yr BP

Relation between the Global Burden of Disease and Randomized Clinical Trials Conducted in Latin America Published in the Five Leading Medical Journals

Background: Since 1990 non communicable diseases and injuries account for the majority of death and disability-adjusted life years in Latin America. We analyzed the relationship between the global burden of disease and Randomized Clinical Trials (RCTs) conducted in Latin America that were published in the five leading medical journals.Methodology/Principal Findings: We included all RCTs in humans, exclusively conducted in Latin American countries, and published in any of the following journals: Annals of Internal Medicine, British Medical Journal, Journal of the American Medical Association, Lancet, and New England Journal of Medicine. We described the trials and reported the number of RCTs according to the main categories of the global burden of disease. Sixty-six RCTs were identified. Communicable diseases accounted for 38 (57%) reports. Maternal, perinatal, and nutritional conditions accounted for 19 (29%) trials. Non-communicable diseases represent 48% of the global burden of disease but only 14% of reported trials. No trial addressed injuries despite its 18% contribution to the burden of disease in 2000.Conclusions/Significance: A poor correlation between the burden of disease and RCTs publications was found. Non communicable diseases and injuries account for up to two thirds of the burden of disease in Latin America but these topics are seldom addressed in published RCTs in the selected sample of journals. Funding bodies of health research and editors should be aware of the increasing burden of non communicable diseases and injuries occurring in Latin America to ensure that this growing epidemic is not neglected in the research agenda and not affected by publication bias

Reference values for methacholine reactivity (SAPALDIA study)

BACKGROUND: The distribution of airway responsiveness in a general population of non-smokers without respiratory symptoms has not been established, limiting its use in clinical and epidemiological practice. We derived reference equations depending on individual characteristics (i.e., sex, age, baseline lung function) for relevant percentiles of the methacholine two-point dose-response slope. METHODS: In a reference sample of 1567 adults of the SAPALDIA cross-sectional survey (1991), defined by excluding subjects with respiratory conditions, responsiveness during methacholine challenge was quantified by calculating the two-point dose-response slope (O'Connor). Weighted L1-regression was used to estimate reference equations for the 95(th ), 90(th ), 75(th )and 50(th )percentiles of the two-point slope. RESULTS: Reference equations for the 95(th ), 90(th ), 75(th )and 50(th )percentiles of the two-point slope were estimated using a model of the form a + b* Age + c* FEV(1 )+ d* (FEV(1))(2 ), where FEV(1 )corresponds to the pre-test (or baseline) level of FEV(1). For the central half of the FEV(1 )distribution, we used a quadratic model to describe the dependence of methacholine slope on baseline FEV(1). For the first and last quartiles of FEV(1), a linear relation with FEV(1 )was assumed (i.e., d was set to 0). Sex was not a predictor term in this model. A negative linear association with slope was found for age. We provide an Excel file allowing calculation of the percentile of methacholine slope of a subject after introducing age – pre-test FEV(1 )– and results of methacholine challenge of the subject. CONCLUSION: The present study provides equations for four relevant percentiles of methacholine two-point slope depending on age and baseline FEV(1 )as basic predictors in an adult reference population of non-obstructive and non-atopic persons. These equations may help clinicians and epidemiologists to better characterize individual or population airway responsiveness

The gut microbiota: a major player in the toxicity of environmental pollutants?

Exposure to environmental chemicals has been linked to various health disorders, including obesity, type 2 diabetes, cancer and dysregulation of the immune and reproductive systems, whereas the gastrointestinal microbiota critically contributes to a variety of host metabolic and immune functions. We aimed to evaluate the bidirectional relationship between gut bacteria and environmental pollutants and to assess the toxicological relevance of the bacteria–xenobiotic interplay for the host. We examined studies using isolated bacteria, faecal or caecal suspensions—germ-free or antibiotic-treated animals—as well as animals reassociated with a microbiota exposed to environmental chemicals. The literature indicates that gut microbes have an extensive capacity to metabolise environmental chemicals that can be classified in five core enzymatic families (azoreductases, nitroreductases, β-glucuronidases, sulfatases and β-lyases) unequivocally involved in the metabolism of >30 environmental contaminants. There is clear evidence that bacteria-dependent metabolism of pollutants modulates the toxicity for the host. Conversely, environmental contaminants from various chemical families have been shown to alter the composition and/or the metabolic activity of the gastrointestinal bacteria, which may be an important factor contributing to shape an individual’s microbiotype. The physiological consequences of these alterations have not been studied in details but pollutant-induced alterations of the gut bacteria are likely to contribute to their toxicity. In conclusion, there is a body of evidence suggesting that gut microbiota are a major, yet underestimated element that must be considered to fully evaluate the toxicity of environmental contaminants

Chronic Obstructive Pulmonary Disease Is Associated with Low Levels of Vitamin D

Introduction: COPD patients may be at increased risk for vitamin D (25(OH)D) deficiency, but risk factors for deficiency among COPD patients have not been extensively reported. Methods: Serum 25(OH)D levels were measured by liquid chromatography double mass spectrometry in subjects aged 40–76 years from Western Norway, including 433 COPD patients (GOLD stage II-IV) and 325 controls. Levels <20 ng/mL defined deficiency. Season, sex, age, body mass index (BMI), smoking, GOLD stage, exacerbation frequency, arterial oxygen tension (PaO2), respiratory symptoms, depression (CES-D score≥16), comorbidities (Charlson score), treatment for osteoporosis, use of inhaled steroids, and total white blood count were examined for associations with 25(OH)D in both linear and logistic regression models. Results: COPD patients had an increased risk for vitamin D deficiency compared to controls after adjustment for seasonality, age, smoking and BMI. Variables associated with lower 25(OH)D levels in COPD patients were obesity ( = −6.63), current smoking ( = −4.02), GOLD stage III- IV ( = −4.71, = −5.64), and depression ( = −3.29). Summertime decreased the risk of vitamin D deficiency (OR = 0.22). Conclusion: COPD was associated with an increased risk of vitamin D deficiency, and important disease characteristics were significantly related to 25(OH)D levels

Rural High North: A High Rate of Fatal Injury and Prehospital Death

Finnmark County is the northernmost county in Norway. For several decades, the rate of mortality after injury in this sparsely inhabited region has remained above the national average. Following documentation of this discrepancy for the period 1991–1995, improvements to the trauma system were implemented. The present study aims to assess whether trauma-related mortality rates have subsequently improved. All injury-associated fatalities in Finnmark from 1995–2004 were identified retrospectively from the National Registry of Death and reviewed. Low-energy trauma in elderly individuals and poisonings were excluded. A total of 453 cases of trauma-related death occurred during the study period, and 327 of those met the inclusion criteria. Information was retrievable for 266 cases. The majority of deaths (86%) occurred in the prehospital phase. The main causes of death were suicide (33%) and road traffic accidents (21%). Drowning and snowmobile injuries accounted for an unexpectedly high proportion (12 and 8%, respectively). The time of death did not show trimodal distribution. Compared to the previous study period, there was a significant overall decline in injury-related mortality, yet there was no change in place of death, mechanism of injury, or time from injury until death. Changes in injury-related mortality cannot be linked to improvements in the trauma system. There was no change in the epidemiological patterns of injury. The high rate of on-scene mortality indicates that any major improvement in the number of injury-related deaths lies in targeted prevention

Polychlorinated Biphenyls and Biotransformation Enzymes in Three Species of Sea Turtles from the Baja California Peninsula of Mexico

Concentrations of polychlorinated biphenyls (PCBs) as well as the expression patterns of cytochrome P450 (CYP) enzymes and glutathione-S-transferase (GST) activities were measured in livers of loggerhead (Caretta caretta), green (Chelonia mydas), and olive ridley (Lepidocheyls olivacea) sea turtles from the Baja California peninsula of Mexico. The mean concentrations of total PCBs were 18.1, 10.5, and 15.2 ng/g wet weight (ww) respectively for the three species and PCB 153 was the dominant congener in all samples. Total PCB concentrations were dominated by penta- and hexa-chlorinated biphenyls. The mean estimated TEQs were 42.8, 22.9, and 10.4 pg/g (ww) for loggerhead, green, and olive ridley, respectively, and more than 70% was accounted for by non-ortho PCBs. Western blots revealed the presence of hepatic microsomal proteins that cross-reacted with anti-CYP2K1 and anti-CYP3A27 antibodies but not with anti-CYP1A antibody. There were no significant differences in GST activities between species. Grouping congeners based on structure–activity relationships for CYP isoenzymes suggested limited activity of CYP1A contribution to PCB biotransformation in sea turtles. These results suggest potential accumulation of PCBs that are CYP1A substrates and provide evidence for biotransformation capacity, which differs from known animal models, highlighting the need for further studies in reptiles, particularly those threatened with extinction

Contribution of smoking and air pollution exposure in urban areas to social differences in respiratory health

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Socio-economic status, smoking, and exposure to increased levels of environmental air pollution are associated with adverse effects on respiratory health. We assessed the contribution of occupational exposures, smoking and outdoor air pollution as competing factors for the association between socio-economic status and respiratory health indicators in a cohort of women from the Ruhr area aged 55 at the time of investigation between 1985 and 1990.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>Data of 1251 women with spirometry and complete questionnaire information about respiratory diseases, smoking and potential confounders were used in the analyses. Exposure to large-scale air pollution was assessed with data from monitoring stations. Exposure to small-scale air pollution was assessed as traffic-related exposure by distance to the nearest major road. Socio-economic status was defined by educational level. Multiple regression models were used to estimate the contribution of occupational exposures, smoking and outdoor air pollution to social differences in respiratory health.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>Women with less than 10 years of school education in comparison to more than 10 years of school education were more often occupationally exposed (16.4% vs. 10.1%), smoked more often (20.3% vs. 13.9%), and lived more often close to major roads (26.0% vs. 22.9%). Long-term exposure to increased levels of PM₁₀was significantly associated with lower school education. Women with low school education were more likely to suffer from respiratory symptoms and had reduced lung function. In the multivariate analysis the associations between education and respiratory health attenuated after adjusting for occupational exposure, smoking and outdoor air pollution. The crude odds ratio for the association between the lung function indicator FEV₁less than 80% of predicted value and educational level (<10 years vs. >10 years of school education) was 1.83 (95% CI: 1.22–2.74). This changed to 1.56 (95% CI: 1.03–2.37) after adjusting for occupational exposure, smoking and outdoor air pollution.</p> <p>Conclusion</p> <p>We found an association between socio-economic status and respiratory health. This can partly be explained by living conditions indicated by occupational exposure, smoking behaviour and ambient air pollution. A relevant part of the social differences in respiratory health, however, remained unexplained.</p