Climate change and the long-term viability of the World’s busiest heavy haul ice road

Climate models project that the northern high latitudes will warm at a rate in excess of the global mean. This will pose severe problems for Arctic and sub-Arctic infrastructure dependent on maintaining low temperatures for structural integrity. This is the case for the economically important Tibbitt to Contwoyto Winter Road (TCWR)—the world’s busiest heavy haul ice road, spanning 400 km across mostly frozen lakes within the Northwest Territories of Canada. In this study, future climate scenarios are developed for the region using statistical downscaling methods. In addition, changes in lake ice thickness are projected based on historical relationships between measured ice thickness and air temperatures. These projections are used to infer the theoretical operational dates of the TCWR based on weight limits for trucks on the ice. Results across three climate models driven by four RCPs reveal a considerable warming trend over the coming decades. Projected changes in ice thickness reveal a trend towards thinner lake ice and a reduced time window when lake ice is at sufficient thickness to support trucks on the ice road, driven by increasing future temperatures. Given the uncertainties inherent in climate modelling and the resultant projections, caution should be exercised in interpreting the magnitude of these scenarios. More certain is the direction of change, with a clear trend towards winter warming that will reduce the operation time window of the TCWR. This illustrates the need for planners and policymakers to consider future changes in climate when planning annual haulage along the TCWR

Mislocalization of XPF-ERCC1 Nuclease Contributes to Reduced DNA Repair in XP-F Patients

Xeroderma pigmentosum (XP) is caused by defects in the nucleotide excision repair (NER) pathway. NER removes helix-distorting DNA lesions, such as UV–induced photodimers, from the genome. Patients suffering from XP exhibit exquisite sun sensitivity, high incidence of skin cancer, and in some cases neurodegeneration. The severity of XP varies tremendously depending upon which NER gene is mutated and how severely the mutation affects DNA repair capacity. XPF-ERCC1 is a structure-specific endonuclease essential for incising the damaged strand of DNA in NER. Missense mutations in XPF can result not only in XP, but also XPF-ERCC1 (XFE) progeroid syndrome, a disease of accelerated aging. In an attempt to determine how mutations in XPF can lead to such diverse symptoms, the effects of a progeria-causing mutation (XPFR153P) were compared to an XP–causing mutation (XPFR799W) in vitro and in vivo. Recombinant XPF harboring either mutation was purified in a complex with ERCC1 and tested for its ability to incise a stem-loop structure in vitro. Both mutant complexes nicked the substrate indicating that neither mutation obviates catalytic activity of the nuclease. Surprisingly, differential immunostaining and fractionation of cells from an XFE progeroid patient revealed that XPF-ERCC1 is abundant in the cytoplasm. This was confirmed by fluorescent detection of XPFR153P-YFP expressed in Xpf mutant cells. In addition, microinjection of XPFR153P-ERCC1 into the nucleus of XPF–deficient human cells restored nucleotide excision repair of UV–induced DNA damage. Intriguingly, in all XPF mutant cell lines examined, XPF-ERCC1 was detected in the cytoplasm of a fraction of cells. This demonstrates that at least part of the DNA repair defect and symptoms associated with mutations in XPF are due to mislocalization of XPF-ERCC1 into the cytoplasm of cells, likely due to protein misfolding. Analysis of these patient cells therefore reveals a novel mechanism to potentially regulate a cell's capacity for DNA repair: by manipulating nuclear localization of XPF-ERCC1

Spatial Sorting Drives Morphological Variation in the Invasive Bird, Acridotheris tristis

The speed of range expansion in many invasive species is often accelerating because individuals with stronger dispersal abilities are more likely to be found at the range front. This ‘spatial sorting’ of strong dispersers will drive the acceleration of range expansion. In this study, we test whether the process of spatial sorting is at work in an invasive bird population (Common myna, Acridotheris tristis) in South Africa. Specifically, we sampled individuals across its invasive range and compared morphometric measurements relevant and non-relevant to the dispersal ability. Besides testing for signals of spatial sorting, we further examined the effect of environmental factors on morphological variations. Our results showed that dispersal-relevant traits are significantly correlated with distance from the range core, with strong sexual dimorphism, indicative of sex-biased dispersal. Morphological variations were significant in wing and head traits of females, suggesting females as the primary dispersing sex. In contrast, traits not related to dispersal such as those associated with foraging showed no signs of spatial sorting but were significantly affected by environmental variables such as the vegetation and the intensity of urbanisation. When taken together, our results support the role of spatial sorting in facilitating the expansion of Common myna in South Africa despite its low propensity to disperse in the native range

Does physical activity change predict functional recovery in low back pain? Protocol for a prospective cohort study

Background: Activity advice and prescription are commonly used in the management of low back pain (LBP). Although there is evidence for advising patients with LBP to remain active, facilitating both recovery and return to work, to date no research has assessed whether objective measurements of free living physical activity (PA) can predict outcome, recovery and course of LBP. Methods: An observational longitudinal study will investigate PA levels in a cohort of community-dwelling working age adults with acute and sub-acute LBP. Each participant's PA level, functional status, mood, fear avoidance behaviours, and levels of pain, psychological distress and occupational activity will be measured on three occasions during for 1 week periods at baseline, 3 months, and 1 year. Physical activity levels will be measured by self report, RT3 triaxial accelerometer, and activity recall questionnaires. The primary outcome measure of functional recovery will be the Roland Morris Disability Questionnaire (RMDQ). Free living PA levels and changes in functional status will be quantified in order to look at predictive relationships between levels and changes in free living PA and functional recovery in a LBP population. Discussion: This research will investigate levels and changes in activity levels of an acute LBP cohort and the predictive relationship to LBP recovery. The results will assess whether occupational, psychological and behavioural factors affect the relationship between free living PA and LBP recovery. Results from this research will help to determine the strength of evidence supporting international guidelines that recommend restoration of normal activity in managing LBP. Trial registration. [Clinical Trial Registration Number, ACTRN12609000282280]. © 2009 Hendrick et al; licensee BioMed Central Ltd

Analysis of rainfall seasonality from observations and climate models

Two new indicators of rainfall seasonality based on information entropy, the relative entropy (RE) and the dimensionless seasonality index (DSI), together with the mean annual rainfall, are evaluated on a global scale for recently updated precipitation gridded datasets and for historical simulations from coupled atmosphere--ocean general circulation models. The RE provides a measure of the number of wet months and, for precipitation regimes featuring a distinct wet and dry season, it is directly related to the duration of the wet season. The DSI combines the rainfall intensity with its degree of seasonality and it is an indicator of the extent of the global monsoon region. We show that the RE and the DSI are fairly independent of the time resolution of the precipitation data, thereby allowing objective metrics for model intercomparison and ranking. Regions with different precipitation regimes are classified and characterized in terms of RE and DSI. Comparison of different land observational datasets reveals substantial difference in their local representation of seasonality. It is shown that two-dimensional maps of RE provide an easy way to compare rainfall seasonality from various datasets and to determine areas of interest. Models participating to the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project platform, Phase 5, consistently overestimate the RE over tropical Latin America and underestimate it in West Africa, western Mexico and East Asia. It is demonstrated that positive RE biases in a general circulation model are associated with excessively peaked monthly precipitation fractions, too large during the wet months and too small in the months preceding and following the wet season; negative biases are instead due, in most cases, to an excess of rainfall during the premonsoonal months

Genomic reconstruction of the SARS-CoV-2 epidemic in England.

The evolution of the severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) virus leads to new variants that warrant timely epidemiological characterization. Here we use the dense genomic surveillance data generated by the COVID-19 Genomics UK Consortium to reconstruct the dynamics of 71 different lineages in each of 315 English local authorities between September 2020 and June 2021. This analysis reveals a series of subepidemics that peaked in early autumn 2020, followed by a jump in transmissibility of the B.1.1.7/Alpha lineage. The Alpha variant grew when other lineages declined during the second national lockdown and regionally tiered restrictions between November and December 2020. A third more stringent national lockdown suppressed the Alpha variant and eliminated nearly all other lineages in early 2021. Yet a series of variants (most of which contained the spike E484K mutation) defied these trends and persisted at moderately increasing proportions. However, by accounting for sustained introductions, we found that the transmissibility of these variants is unlikely to have exceeded the transmissibility of the Alpha variant. Finally, B.1.617.2/Delta was repeatedly introduced in England and grew rapidly in early summer 2021, constituting approximately 98% of sampled SARS-CoV-2 genomes on 26 June 2021