Potential climatic transitions with profound impact on Europe

We discuss potential transitions of six climatic subsystems with large-scale impact on Europe, sometimes denoted as tipping elements. These are the ice sheets on Greenland and West Antarctica, the Atlantic thermohaline circulation, Arctic sea ice, Alpine glaciers and northern hemisphere stratospheric ozone. Each system is represented by co-authors actively publishing in the corresponding field. For each subsystem we summarize the mechanism of a potential transition in a warmer climate along with its impact on Europe and assess the likelihood for such a transition based on published scientific literature. As a summary, the ‘tipping’ potential for each system is provided as a function of global mean temperature increase which required some subjective interpretation of scientific facts by the authors and should be considered as a snapshot of our current understanding. <br/

Increased variability in ApcMin/+ intestinal tissue can be measured with microultrasound

Altered tissue structure is a feature of many disease states and is usually measured by microscopic methods, limiting analysis to small areas. Means to rapidly and quantitatively measure the structure and organisation of large tissue areas would represent a major advance not just for research but also in the clinic. Here, changes in tissue organisation that result from heterozygosity in Apc, a precancerous situation, are comprehensively measured using microultrasound and three-dimensional high-resolution microscopy. Despite its normal appearance in conventionally examined cross-sections, both approaches revealed a significant increase in the variability of tissue organisation in Apc heterozygous tissue. These changes preceded the formation of aberrant crypt foci or adenoma. Measuring these premalignant changes using microultrasound provides a potential means to detect microscopically abnormal regions in large tissue samples, independent of visual examination or biopsies. Not only does this provide a powerful tool for studying tissue structure in experimental settings, the ability to detect and monitor tissue changes by microultrasound could be developed into a powerful adjunct to screening endoscopy in the clinic

Exceptional twentieth-century slowdown in Atlantic Ocean overturning circulation

Possible changes in Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC) provide a key source of uncertainty regarding future climate change. Maps of temperature trends over the twentieth century show a conspicuous region of cooling in the northern Atlantic. Here we present multiple lines of evidence suggesting that this cooling may be due to a reduction in the AMOC over the twentieth century and particularly after 1970. Since 1990 the AMOC seems to have partly recovered. This time evolution is consistently suggested by an AMOC index based on sea surface temperatures, by the hemispheric temperature difference, by coral-based proxies and by oceanic measurements. We discuss a possible contribution of the melting of the Greenland Ice Sheet to the slowdown. Using a multi-proxy temperature reconstruction for the AMOC index suggests that the AMOC weakness after 1975 is an unprecedented event in the past millennium (p > 0.99). Further melting of Greenland in the coming decades could contribute to further weakening of the AMOC

Chemicals released by male sea cucumber mediate aggregation and spawning behaviours

The importance of chemical communication in reproduction has been demonstrated in many marine broadcast spawners. However, little is known about the use of chemical communication by echinoderms, the nature of the compounds involved and their mechanism(s) of action. Here, the hypothesis that the sea cucumber Holothuria arguinensis uses chemical communication for aggregation and spawning was tested. Water conditioned by males, but not females, attracted both males and females; gonad homogenates and coelomic fluid had no effect on attraction. Male spawning water, but not female spawning water, stimulated males and females to release their gametes; the spermatozoa alone did not induce spawning. H. arguinensis male spawning water also induced spawning in the phylogenetically related H. mammata. This indicates that males release pheromones together with their gametes that induce spawning in conspecifics and possibly sympatric species. Finally, the male pheromone seems to be a mixture with at least one labile compound (biological activity is lost after four hours at ambient temperature) possibly including phosphatidylcholines. The identification of pheromones in sea cucumbers offers a new ecological perspective and may have practical applications for their aquaculture.FCT - Foundation for Science and Technology [UID/Multi/04326/2013, SFRH/BD/90761/2012]info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersio

Ice sheets as a missing source of silica to the polar oceans

Ice sheets play a more important role in the global silicon cycle than previously appreciated. Input of dissolved and amorphous particulate silica into natural waters stimulates the growth of diatoms. Here we measure dissolved and amorphous silica in Greenland Ice Sheet meltwaters and icebergs, demonstrating the potential for high ice sheet export. Our dissolved and amorphous silica flux is 0.20 (0.06-0.79) Tmol year(-1), ∼50% of the input from Arctic rivers. Amorphous silica comprises >95% of this flux and is highly soluble in sea water, as indicated by a significant increase in dissolved silica across a fjord salinity gradient. Retreating palaeo ice sheets were therefore likely responsible for high dissolved and amorphous silica fluxes into the ocean during the last deglaciation, reaching values of ∼5.5 Tmol year(-1), similar to the estimated export from palaeo rivers. These elevated silica fluxes may explain high diatom productivity observed during the last glacial-interglacial period

A comparative analysis of predictive models of morbidity in intensive care unit after cardiac surgery – Part I: model planning

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Different methods have recently been proposed for predicting morbidity in intensive care units (ICU). The aim of the present study was to critically review a number of approaches for developing models capable of estimating the probability of morbidity in ICU after heart surgery. The study is divided into two parts. In this first part, popular models used to estimate the probability of class membership are grouped into distinct categories according to their underlying mathematical principles. Modelling techniques and intrinsic strengths and weaknesses of each model are analysed and discussed from a theoretical point of view, in consideration of clinical applications.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>Models based on Bayes rule, <it>k-</it>nearest neighbour algorithm, logistic regression, scoring systems and artificial neural networks are investigated. Key issues for model design are described. The mathematical treatment of some aspects of model structure is also included for readers interested in developing models, though a full understanding of mathematical relationships is not necessary if the reader is only interested in perceiving the practical meaning of model assumptions, weaknesses and strengths from a user point of view.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>Scoring systems are very attractive due to their simplicity of use, although this may undermine their predictive capacity. Logistic regression models are trustworthy tools, although they suffer from the principal limitations of most regression procedures. Bayesian models seem to be a good compromise between complexity and predictive performance, but model recalibration is generally necessary. <it>k</it>-nearest neighbour may be a valid non parametric technique, though computational cost and the need for large data storage are major weaknesses of this approach. Artificial neural networks have intrinsic advantages with respect to common statistical models, though the training process may be problematical.</p> <p>Conclusion</p> <p>Knowledge of model assumptions and the theoretical strengths and weaknesses of different approaches are fundamental for designing models for estimating the probability of morbidity after heart surgery. However, a rational choice also requires evaluation and comparison of actual performances of locally-developed competitive models in the clinical scenario to obtain satisfactory agreement between local needs and model response. In the second part of this study the above predictive models will therefore be tested on real data acquired in a specialized ICU.</p

Recent progress in understanding and projecting regional and global mean sea-level change

Considerable progress has been made in understanding the present and future regional and global sea level in the 2 years since the publication of the Fifth Assessment Report (AR5) of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Here, we evaluate how the new results affect the AR5’s assessment of (i) historical sea level rise, including attribution of that rise and implications for the sea level budget, (ii) projections of the components and of total global mean sea level (GMSL), and (iii) projections of regional variability and emergence of the anthropogenic signal. In each of these cases, new work largely provides additional evidence in support of the AR5 assessment, providing greater confidence in those findings. Recent analyses confirm the twentieth century sea level rise, with some analyses showing a slightly smaller rate before 1990 and some a slightly larger value than reported in the AR5. There is now more evidence of an acceleration in the rate of rise. Ongoing ocean heat uptake and associated thermal expansion have continued since 2000, and are consistent with ocean thermal expansion reported in the AR5. A significant amount of heat is being stored deeper in the water column, with a larger rate of heat uptake since 2000 compared to the previous decades and with the largest storage in the Southern Ocean. The first formal detection studies for ocean thermal expansion and glacier mass loss since the AR5 have confirmed the AR5 finding of a significant anthropogenic contribution to sea level rise over the last 50 years. New projections of glacier loss from two regions suggest smaller contributions to GMSL rise from these regions than in studies assessed by the AR5; additional regional studies are required to further assess whether there are broader implications of these results. Mass loss from the Greenland Ice Sheet, primarily as a result of increased surface melting, and from the Antarctic Ice Sheet, primarily as a result of increased ice discharge, has accelerated. The largest estimates of acceleration in mass loss from the two ice sheets for 2003–2013 equal or exceed the acceleration of GMSL rise calculated from the satellite altimeter sea level record over the longer period of 1993–2014. However, when increased mass gain in land water storage and parts of East Antarctica, and decreased mass loss from glaciers in Alaska and some other regions are taken into account, the net acceleration in the ocean mass gain is consistent with the satellite altimeter record. New studies suggest that a marine ice sheet instability (MISI) may have been initiated in parts of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet (WAIS), but that it will affect only a limited number of ice streams in the twenty-first century. New projections of mass loss from the Greenland and Antarctic Ice Sheets by 2100, including a contribution from parts of WAIS undergoing unstable retreat, suggest a contribution that falls largely within the likely range (i.e., two thirds probability) of the AR5. These new results increase confidence in the AR5 likely range, indicating that there is a greater probability that sea level rise by 2100 will lie in this range with a corresponding decrease in the likelihood of an additional contribution of several tens of centimeters above the likely range. In view of the comparatively limited state of knowledge and understanding of rapid ice sheet dynamics, we continue to think that it is not yet possible to make reliable quantitative estimates of future GMSL rise outside the likely range. Projections of twenty-first century GMSL rise published since the AR5 depend on results from expert elicitation, but we have low confidence in conclusions based on these approaches. New work on regional projections and emergence of the anthropogenic signal suggests that the two commonly predicted features of future regional sea level change (the increasing tilt across the Antarctic Circumpolar Current and the dipole in the North Atlantic) are related to regional changes in wind stress and surface heat flux. Moreover, it is expected that sea level change in response to anthropogenic forcing, particularly in regions of relatively low unforced variability such as the low-latitude Atlantic, will be detectable over most of the ocean by 2040. The east-west contrast of sea level trends in the Pacific observed since the early 1990s cannot be satisfactorily accounted for by climate models, nor yet definitively attributed either to unforced variability or forced climate change