Wait or Buy? The Strategic Consumer: Pricing and Profit Implications

Using tools from operations research, airlines have, for many years, taken a strategic approach to pricing the seats available on a particular flight based on demand forecasts and information. The result of this approach is that the same seat on the same flight is often offered at different fares at different times. Setting of these prices using yield-management approaches is a major activity for many airlines and is well studied in the literature. However, consumers are becoming increasingly aware of the existence of pricing strategies used by airlines. In addition, the availability of airline travel pricing on the Internet affords consumers the opportunity to behave more strategically when making purchase decisions. The onset of the information age makes it possible for an informed consumer or a third party, such as a travel agent, to obtain demand information similar to that used by the airlines. In particular, it is possible for consumers or travel agents to purchase historical data or to obtain it by monitoring the seats that are available at various prices for a given flight. If a consumer understands the pricing strategy and has access to demand information, he/she may decide to defer purchase of a ticket because they believe that a cheaper seat may yet become available. If consumers were to make use of this information to make such strategic purchasing decisions, what would be the impact on airline revenues? The purpose of this paper is to investigate these impacts. This work indicates that use of standard yield management approaches to pricing by airlines can result in significantly reduced revenues when buyers are using an informed and strategic approach to purchasing. Therefore, when airlines are setting or presenting prices, they should investigate the effect of strategic purchasing on their decisions

Linking inter-annual variation in environment, phenology, and abundance for a montane butterfly community (article)

This is the final version. Available from the Ecological Society of America via the DOI in this record. The dataset associated with this article is located in ORE at: https://doi.org/10.24378/exe.1963Climate change has caused widespread shifts in species’ phenology, but the consequences for population and community dynamics remain unclear because of uncertainty regarding the species-specific drivers of phenology and abundance, and the implications for synchrony among interacting species. Here, we develop a statistical model to quantify inter-annual variation in phenology and abundance over an environmental gradient, and use it to identify potential drivers of phenology and abundance in co-occurring species. We fit the model to counts of 10 butterfly species with single annual generations over a mountain elevation gradient, as an exemplar system in which temporally limited availability of biotic resources and favorable abiotic conditions impose narrow windows of seasonal activity. We estimate parameters describing changes in abundance, and the peak time and duration of the flight period, over ten years (2004–2013) and across twenty sample locations (930–2,050 m) in central Spain. We also use the model outputs to investigate relationships of phenology and abundance with temperature and rainfall. Annual shifts in phenology were remarkably consistent among species, typically showing earlier flight periods during years with warm conditions in March or May–June. In contrast, inter-annual variation in relative abundance was more variable among species, and generally less well associated with climatic conditions. Nevertheless, warmer temperatures in June were associated with increased relative population growth in three species, and five species had increased relative population growth in years with earlier flight periods. These results suggest that broadly coherent interspecific changes to phenology could help to maintain temporal synchrony in community dynamics under climate change, but that the relative composition of communities may vary due to interspecific inconsistency in population dynamic responses to climate change. However, it may still be possible to predict abundance change for species based on a robust understanding of relationships between their population dynamics and phenology, and the environmental drivers of both.Royal SocietyNatural Environment Research Counci

Accounting for female space sharing in St. Kilda Soay sheep (Ovis aries) results in little change in heritability estimates

This is the author accepted manuscript. The final version is available from Wiley via the DOI in this record.When estimating heritability in free-living populations, it is common practice to account for common environment effects, because of their potential to generate phenotypic covariance among relatives thereby biasing heritability estimates. In quantitative genetic studies of natural populations, however, philopatry, which results in relatives being clustered in space, is rarely accounted for. The two studies to have done so suggest absolute declines in heritability estimates of up to 43% when accounting for space sharing by relatives. However, due to methodological limitations these estimates may not be representative. We used data from the St. Kilda Soay sheep population to estimate heritabilities with and without accounting for space sharing for five traits for which there is evidence for additive genetic variance (birth weight, birth date, lamb August weight, and female post mortem jaw and metacarpal length). We accounted for space sharing by related females by separately incorporating spatial autocorrelation, and a home range similarity matrix. Although these terms accounted for up to 17% of the variance in these traits, heritability estimates were only reduced by up to 7%. Our results suggest that the bias caused by not accounting for space sharing may be lower than previously thought. This suggests that philopatry does not inevitably lead to a large bias if space sharing by relatives is not accounted for. We hope our work stimulates researchers to model shared space when relatives in their study population share space, as doing so will enable us to better understand when bias may be of particular concern.The Soay Sheep Project is supported by grants from the UK Natural Environment Research Council, whilst CER is supported by a BBSRC PhD studentship

Recent radiopharmaceutical research at the AAEC Research Establishment.

During the past few years a large part of the radiochemical research carried out at Lucas Heights has been devoted to the synthesis of ligands capable of forming chelate complexes with technetium-99m as part of a search for tumour-localising radiopharmaceuticals. An account is given of the synthesis and biological evaluation of a range of these compounds and of the investigation of certain biochemical and biological properties affecting the clinical application of both ligands and radiopharmaceuticals. In addition to the search for novel Tc-99m radiopharmaceuticals major research programs on the development of Tc-99m generating systems have been in progress at Lucas Heights for several years. Work on the AAEC's Mark III Tc-99m technetium generator has been brought to a successful conclusion. A new type of Tc-99m generator which uses an insoluble zirconium molybdate gel and provides high yields of pertechnetate by a simple elution technique has also been developed. Studies are in progress on the osmium-iridium generator

Harnessing the power of artificial intelligence to transform hearing healthcare and research

The advances in artificial intelligence that are transforming many fields have yet to make an impact in hearing. Hearing healthcare continues to rely on a labour-intensive service model that fails to provide access to the majority of those in need, while hearing research suffers from a lack of computational tools with the capacity to match the complexities of auditory processing. This Perspective is a call for the artificial intelligence and hearing communities to come together to bring about a technological revolution in hearing. We describe opportunities for rapid clinical impact through the application of existing technologies and propose directions for the development of new technologies to create true artificial auditory systems. There is an urgent need to push hearing towards a future in which artificial intelligence provides critical support for the testing of hypotheses, the development of therapies and the effective delivery of care worldwide

Environmental coupling of selection and heritability limits evolution

There has recently been great interest in applying theoretical quantitative genetic models to empirical studies of evolution in wild populations. However, while classical models assume environmental constancy, most natural populations exist in variable environments. Here, we applied a novel analytical technique to a long-term study of birthweight in wild sheep and examined, for the first time, how variation in environmental quality simultaneously influences the strength of natural selection and the genetic basis of trait variability. In addition to demonstrating that selection and genetic variance vary dramatically across environments, our results show that environmental heterogeneity induces a negative correlation between these two parameters. Harsh environmental conditions were associated with strong selection for increased birthweight but low genetic variance, and vice versa. Consequently, the potential for microevolution in this population is constrained by either a lack of heritable variation ( in poor environments) or by a reduced strength of selection ( in good environments). More generally, environmental dependence of this nature may act to limit rates of evolution, maintain genetic variance, and favour phenotypic stasis in many natural systems. Assumptions of environmental constancy are likely to be violated in natural systems, and failure to acknowledge this may generate highly misleading expectations for phenotypic microevolution

Natural selection on individual variation in tolerance of gastrointestinal nematode infection

This is the final version of the article. Available from the publisher via the DOI in this record.Hosts may mitigate the impact of parasites by two broad strategies: resistance, which limits parasite burden, and tolerance, which limits the fitness or health cost of increasing parasite burden. The degree and causes of variation in both resistance and tolerance are expected to influence host-parasite evolutionary and epidemiological dynamics and inform disease management, yet very little empirical work has addressed tolerance in wild vertebrates. Here, we applied random regression models to longitudinal data from an unmanaged population of Soay sheep to estimate individual tolerance, defined as the rate of decline in body weight with increasing burden of highly prevalent gastrointestinal nematode parasites. On average, individuals lost weight as parasite burden increased, but whereas some lost weight slowly as burden increased (exhibiting high tolerance), other individuals lost weight significantly more rapidly (exhibiting low tolerance). We then investigated associations between tolerance and fitness using selection gradients that accounted for selection on correlated traits, including body weight. We found evidence for positive phenotypic selection on tolerance: on average, individuals who lost weight more slowly with increasing parasite burden had higher lifetime breeding success. This variation did not have an additive genetic basis. These results reveal that selection on tolerance operates under natural conditions. They also support theoretical predictions for the erosion of additive genetic variance of traits under strong directional selection and fixation of genes conferring tolerance. Our findings provide the first evidence of selection on individual tolerance of infection in animals and suggest practical applications in animal and human disease management in the face of highly prevalent parasites.This study was funded by Natural Environment Research Council (http://www.nerc.ac.uk/) Standard Grant no. NE/G004854/1 and European Research Council (http://erc.europa.eu/) Large Grant no. 250098 to JMP. ADH is supported by European Research Council grant no. R/120448-11-1 to V. Lummaa; DHN is supported by Biotechnology and Biological Sciences Research Council (http://www.bbsrc.ac.uk/) David Phillips Fellowship no. BB/H021686/1; AJW is supported by BBSRC David Phillips Fellowship no. BB/G022976/1; ALG is supported by Princeton University and the Research and Policy for Infectious Disease Dynamics (RAPIDD) program of the Science and Technology Directorate, U.S. Department of Homeland Security, and the Fogarty International Center of the National Institutes of Health. The funders had no role in study design, data collection and analysis, decision to publish, or preparation of the manuscript