Belief aggregation in financial markets and the nature of price fluctuations

We present a model of financial markets, where the belief of the market, expressed by a normal distribution over asset returns, is formed by aggregating in a dynamically consistent way individual subjective beliefs of the market participants, which are likewise assumed to follow normal distributions. We apply this model to a market of traders with standard CARA preferences with the aim of identifying an intrinsic source of price fluctuations. We find that asset prices depend on both Gaussian parameters mean and variance of the market belief, but argue that the latter changes slower than the former. Consequently, price fluctuations are dominated by the covariance matrix of the market participants’ subjective beliefs about expected asset returns

TP53 abnormalities correlate with immune infiltration and associate with response to flotetuzumab immunotherapy in AML

Somatic TP53 mutations and 17p deletions with genomic loss of TP53 occur in 37% to 46% of acute myeloid leukemia (AML) with adverse-risk cytogenetics and correlate with primary induction failure, high risk of relapse, and dismal prognosis. Herein, we aimed to characterize the immune landscape of TP53-mutated AML and determine whether TP53 abnormalities identify a patient subgroup that may benefit from immunotherapy with flotetuzumab, an investigational CD123 × CD3 bispecific dual-affinity retargeting antibody (DART) molecule. The NanoString PanCancer IO360 assay was used to profile 64 diagnostic bone marrow (BM) samples from patients with TP53-mutated (n = 42) and TP53-wild-type (TP53-WT) AML (n = 22) and 45 BM samples from patients who received flotetuzumab for relapsed/refractory (R/R) AML (15 cases with TP53 mutations and/or 17p deletion). The comparison between TP53-mutated and TP53-WT primary BM samples showed higher expression of IFNG, FOXP3, immune checkpoints, markers of immune senescence, and phosphatidylinositol 3-kinase-Akt and NF-κB signaling intermediates in the former cohort and allowed the discovery of a 34-gene immune classifier prognostic for survival in independent validation series. Finally, 7 out of 15 patients (47%) with R/R AML and TP53 abnormalities showed complete responses to flotetuzumab (less than 5% BM blasts) on the CP-MGD006-01 clinical trial (NCT #02152956) and had significantly higher tumor inflammation signature, FOXP3, CD8, inflammatory chemokine, and PD1 gene expression scores at baseline compared with nonresponders. Patients with TP53 abnormalities who achieved a complete response experienced prolonged survival (median, 10.3 months; range, 3.3-21.3 months). These results encourage further study of flotetuzumab immunotherapy in patients with TP53-mutated AML

Immune landscapes predict chemotherapy resistance and immunotherapy response in acute myeloid leukemia

Acute myeloid leukemia (AML) is a molecularly and clinically heterogeneous hematological malignancy. Although immunotherapy may be an attractive modality to exploit in patients with AML, the ability to predict the groups of patients and the types of cancer that will respond to immune targeting remains limited. This study dissected the complexity of the immune architecture of AML at high resolution and assessed its influence on therapeutic response. Using 442 primary bone marrow samples from three independent cohorts of children and adults with AML, we defined immune-infiltrated and immune-depleted disease classes and revealed critical differences in immune gene expression across age groups and molecular disease subtypes. Interferon (IFN)–γ–related mRNA profiles were predictive for both chemotherapy resistance and response of primary refractory/relapsed AML to flotetuzumab immunotherapy. Our compendium of microenvironmental gene and protein profiles provides insights into the immuno-biology of AML and could inform the delivery of personalized immunotherapies to IFN-γ–dominant AML subtypes

Failure of artesunate-mefloquine combination therapy for uncomplicated Plasmodium falciparum malaria in southern Cambodia

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Resistance to anti-malarial drugs hampers control efforts and increases the risk of morbidity and mortality from malaria. The efficacy of standard therapies for uncomplicated <it>Plasmodium falciparum </it>and <it>Plasmodium vivax </it>malaria was assessed in Chumkiri, Kampot Province, Cambodia.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>One hundred fifty-one subjects with uncomplicated falciparum malaria received directly observed therapy with 12 mg/kg artesunate (over three days) and 25 mg/kg mefloquine, up to a maximum dose of 600 mg artesunate/1,000 mg mefloquine. One hundred nine subjects with uncomplicated vivax malaria received a total of 25 mg/kg chloroquine, up to a maximum dose of 1,500 mg, over three days. Subjects were followed for 42 days or until recurrent parasitaemia was observed. For <it>P. falciparum </it>infected subjects, PCR genotyping of <it>msp1</it>, <it>msp2</it>, and <it>glurp </it>was used to distinguish treatment failures from new infections. Treatment failure rates at days 28 and 42 were analyzed using both per protocol and Kaplan-Meier survival analysis. Real Time PCR was used to measure the copy number of the <it>pfmdr1 </it>gene and standard 48-hour isotopic hypoxanthine incorporation assays were used to measure IC₅₀for anti-malarial drugs.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>Among <it>P. falciparum </it>infected subjects, 47.0% were still parasitemic on day 2 and 11.3% on day 3. The PCR corrected treatment failure rates determined by survival analysis at 28 and 42 days were 13.1% and 18.8%, respectively. Treatment failure was associated with increased <it>pfmdr1 </it>copy number, higher initial parasitaemia, higher mefloquine IC₅₀, and longer time to parasite clearance. One <it>P. falciparum </it>isolate, from a treatment failure, had markedly elevated IC₅₀for both mefloquine (130 nM) and artesunate (6.7 nM). Among <it>P. vivax </it>infected subjects, 42.1% suffered recurrent <it>P. vivax </it>parasitaemia. None acquired new <it>P. falciparum </it>infection.</p> <p>Conclusion</p> <p>The results suggest that artesunate-mefloquine combination therapy is beginning to fail in southern Cambodia and that resistance is not confined to the provinces at the Thai-Cambodian border. It is unclear whether the treatment failures are due solely to mefloquine resistance or to artesunate resistance as well. The findings of delayed clearance times and elevated artesunate IC₅₀suggest that artesunate resistance may be emerging on a background of mefloquine resistance.</p

A first-principles theoretical study of the electronic and optical properties of twisted bilayer GaN structures

Gallium nitride (GaN) is a well-investigated material that is applied in many advanced power electronic and optoelectronic devices due to its wide bandgap. However, derivatives of its monolayer form, such as bilayer structures, have rarely been reported. We study herein the electronic and optical properties of GaN bilayer structures that are rotated in the plane at several optimized angles by using the density functional theory method. To maintain the structural stability and use a small cell size, the twisting angles of the GaN bilayer structures are optimized to be 27.8°, 38.2°, and 46.8° using the crystal matching theory. The band-structure analysis reveals that the bandgap is wider for the twisted structures compared with the nontwisted case. The simulation results provide the absorption coefficient, extinction coefficient, reflectivity, and refractive index at these angles. The spectra of all these optical properties match with the bandgap values. The simulated refractive index of the bilayer structures at all the twisting angles including 0° is smaller than that of bulk GaN, indicating a reduced scattering loss for optoelectronics applications. Considering the results of this analysis, the possible applications may include low-loss integrated electronic and optical devices and systems

Cyclic game dynamics driven by iterated reasoning

Recent theories from complexity science argue that complex dynamics are ubiquitous in social and economic systems. These claims emerge from the analysis of individually simple agents whose collective behavior is surprisingly complicated. However, economists have argued that iterated reasoning--what you think I think you think--will suppress complex dynamics by stabilizing or accelerating convergence to Nash equilibrium. We report stable and efficient periodic behavior in human groups playing the Mod Game, a multi-player game similar to Rock-Paper-Scissors. The game rewards subjects for thinking exactly one step ahead of others in their group. Groups that play this game exhibit cycles that are inconsistent with any fixed-point solution concept. These cycles are driven by a "hopping" behavior that is consistent with other accounts of iterated reasoning: agents are constrained to about two steps of iterated reasoning and learn an additional one-half step with each session. If higher-order reasoning can be complicit in complex emergent dynamics, then cyclic and chaotic patterns may be endogenous features of real-world social and economic systems.Comment: 8 pages, 4 figures, and supplementary informatio

An Experiment on Prediction Markets in Science

Prediction markets are powerful forecasting tools. They have the potential to aggregate private information, to generate and disseminate a consensus among the market participants, and to provide incentives for information acquisition. These market functionalities can be very valuable for scientific research. Here, we report an experiment that examines the compatibility of prediction markets with the current practice of scientific publication. We investigated three settings. In the first setting, different pieces of information were disclosed to the public during the experiment. In the second setting, participants received private information. In the third setting, each piece of information was private at first, but was subsequently disclosed to the public. An automated, subsidizing market maker provided additional incentives for trading and mitigated liquidity problems. We find that the third setting combines the advantages of the first and second settings. Market performance was as good as in the setting with public information, and better than in the setting with private information. In contrast to the first setting, participants could benefit from information advantages. Thus the publication of information does not detract from the functionality of prediction markets. We conclude that for integrating prediction markets into the practice of scientific research it is of advantage to use subsidizing market makers, and to keep markets aligned with current publication practice

Efficacy and Safety of Intravitreal Gene Therapy for Leber Hereditary Optic Neuropathy Treated within 6 Months of Disease Onset

Purpose: To evaluate the efficacy of a single intravitreal injection of rAAV2/2-ND4 in subjects with visual loss from Leber hereditary optic neuropathy (LHON). Design: RESCUE is a multicenter, randomized, double-masked, sham-controlled, phase 3 clinical trial. Participants: Subjects with the m.11778G&gt;A mitochondrial DNA mutation and vision loss ≤6 months from onset in 1 or both eyes were included. Methods: Each subject's right eye was randomly assigned (1:1) to treatment with rAAV2/2-ND4 (single injection of 9 × 1010 viral genomes in 90 μl) or to sham injection. The left eye received the treatment not allocated to the right eye. Main Outcome Measures: The primary end point was the difference of the change from baseline in best-corrected visual acuity (BCVA) between rAAV2/2-ND4–treated and sham-treated eyes at week 48. Other outcome measures included contrast sensitivity, Humphrey visual field perimetry, retinal anatomic measures, and quality of life. Follow-up extended to week 96. Results: Efficacy analysis included 38 subjects. Mean age was 36.8 years, and 82% were male. Mean duration of vision loss at time of treatment was 3.6 months and 3.9 months in the rAAV2/2-ND4–treated eyes and sham-treated eyes, respectively. Mean baseline logarithm of the minimum angle of resolution (logMAR) BCVA (standard deviation) was 1.31 (0.52) in rAAV2/2-ND4–treated eyes and 1.26 (0.62) in sham-treated eyes, with a range from −0.20 to 2.51. At week 48, the difference of the change in BCVA from baseline between rAAV2/2-ND4–treated and sham-treated eyes was −0.01 logMAR (P = 0.89); the primary end point of a −0.3 logMAR (15-letter) difference was not met. The mean BCVA for both groups deteriorated over the initial weeks, reaching the worst levels at week 24, followed by a plateau phase until week 48, and then an improvement of +10 and +9 Early Treatment Diabetic Retinopathy Study letters equivalent from the plateau level in the rAAV2/2-ND4–treated and sham-treated eyes, respectively. Conclusions: At 96 weeks after unilateral injection of rAAV2/2-ND4, LHON subjects carrying the m.11778G&gt;A mutation treated within 6 months after vision loss achieved comparable visual outcomes in the injected and uninjected eyes