Derivation and validation of a simple, accurate and robust prediction rule for risk of mortality in patients with Clostridium difficile infection.

Published onlineJournal ArticleResearch Support, Non-U.S. Gov'tBACKGROUND: Clostridium difficile infection poses a significant healthcare burden. However, the derivation of a simple, evidence based prediction rule to assist patient management has not yet been described. METHOD: Univariate, multivariate and decision tree procedures were used to deduce a prediction rule from over 186 variables; retrospectively collated from clinical data for 213 patients. The resulting prediction rule was validated on independent data from a cohort of 158 patients described by Bhangu et al. (Colorectal Disease, 12(3):241-246, 2010). RESULTS: Serum albumin levels (g/L) (P = 0.001), respiratory rate (resps /min) (P = 0.002), C-reactive protein (mg/L) (P = 0.034) and white cell count (mcL) (P = 0.049) were predictors of all-cause mortality. Threshold levels of serum albumin ≤ 24.5 g/L, C- reactive protein >228 mg/L, respiratory rate >17 resps/min and white cell count >12 × 10(3) mcL were associated with an increased risk of all-cause mortality. A simple four variable prediction rule was devised based on these threshold levels and when tested on the initial data, yield an area under the curve score of 0.754 (P < 0.001) using receiver operating characteristics. The prediction rule was then evaluated using independent data, and yield an area under the curve score of 0.653 (P = 0.001). CONCLUSIONS: Four easily measurable clinical variables can be used to assess the risk of mortality of patients with Clostridium difficile infection and remains robust with respect to independent data.This work was funded by University of Exeter, Systems Biology Initiative, a small grants fund from the RD&E NHS Trust and The National Institute for Health Research (NIHR) Collaboration for Leadership in Applied Health Research and Care (CLAHRC) for the South West Peninsula (PenCLAHRC). This article presents independent research funded by the National Institute for Health Research (NIHR) Collaboration for Leadership in Applied Health Research and Care (CLAHRC) for the South West Peninsula. The views expressed in this publication are those of the author(s) and not necessarily those of the NHS, the NIHR or the Department of Health in England

Robust diagnostic genetic testing using solution capture enrichment and a novel variant-filtering interface.

Targeted hybridization enrichment prior to next-generation sequencing is a widespread method for characterizing sequence variation in a research setting, and is being adopted by diagnostic laboratories. However, the number of variants identified can overwhelm clinical laboratories with strict time constraints, the final interpretation of likely pathogenicity being a particular bottleneck. To address this, we have developed an approach in which, after automatic variant calling on a standard unix pipeline, subsequent variant filtering is performed interactively, using AgileExomeFilter and AgilePindelFilter (http://dna.leeds.ac.uk/agile), tools designed for clinical scientists with standard desktop computers. To demonstrate the method's diagnostic efficacy, we tested 128 patients using (1) a targeted capture of 36 cancer-predisposing genes or (2) whole-exome capture for diagnosis of the genetically heterogeneous disorder primary ciliary dyskinesia (PCD). In the cancer cohort, complete concordance with previous diagnostic data was achieved across 793 variant genotypes. A high yield (42%) was also achieved for exome-based PCD diagnosis, underscoring the scalability of our method. Simple adjustments to the variant filtering parameters further allowed the identification of a homozygous truncating mutation in a presumptive new PCD gene, DNAH8. These tools should allow diagnostic laboratories to expand their testing portfolios flexibly, using a standard set of reagents and techniques

Challenges and Opportunities: What Can We Learn from Patients Living with Chronic Musculoskeletal Conditions, Health Professionals and Carers about the Concept of Health Literacy Using Qualitative Methods of Inquiry?

The field of health literacy continues to evolve and concern public health researchers and yet remains a largely overlooked concept elsewhere in the healthcare system. We conducted focus group discussions in England UK, about the concept of health literacy with older patients with chronic musculoskeletal conditions (mean age = 73.4 years), carers and health professionals. Our research posed methodological, intellectual and practical challenges. Gaps in conceptualisation and expectations were revealed, reiterating deficiencies in predominant models for understanding health literacy and methodological shortcomings of using focus groups in qualitative research for this topic. Building on this unique insight into what the concept of health literacy meant to participants, we present analysis of our findings on factors perceived to foster and inhibit health literacy and on the issue of responsibility in health literacy. Patients saw health literacy as a result of an inconsistent interactive process and the implications as wide ranging; healthcare professionals had more heterogeneous views. All focus group discussants agreed that health literacy most benefited from good inter-personal communication and partnership. By proposing a needs-based approach to health literacy we offer an alternative way of conceptualising health literacy to help improve the health of older people with chronic conditions

Can postponement of an adverse outcome be used to present risk reductions to a lay audience? A population survey

BACKGROUND: For shared decision making doctors need to communicate the effectiveness of therapies such that patients can understand it and discriminate between small and large effects. Previous research indicates that patients have difficulties in understanding risk measures. This study aimed to test the hypothesis that lay people may be able to discriminate between therapies when their effectiveness is expressed in terms of postponement of an adverse disease event. METHODS: In 2004 a random sample of 1,367 non-institutionalized Danes aged 40+ was interviewed in person. The participants were asked for demographic information and asked to consider a hypothetical preventive drug treatment. The respondents were randomized to the magnitude of treatment effectiveness (heart attack postponement of 1 month, 6 months, 12 months, 2 years, 4 years and 8 years) and subsequently asked whether they would take such a therapy. They were also asked whether they had hypercholesterolemia or had experienced a heart attack. RESULTS: In total 58% of the respondents consented to the hypothetical treatment. The proportions accepting treatment were 39%, 52%, 56%, 64%, 67% and 73% when postponement was 1 month, 6 months, 12 months, 2 years, 4 years and 8 years respectively. Participants who thought that the effectiveness information was difficult to understand, were less likely to consent to therapy (p = 0.004). CONCLUSION: Lay people can discriminate between levels of treatment effectiveness when they are presented in terms of postponement of an adverse event. The results indicate that such postponement is a comprehensible measure of effectiveness

Observational evidence of a change in radiative forcing due to the indirect aerosol effect

Anthropogenic aerosols enhance cloud reflectivity by increasing the number concentration of cloud droplets, leading to a cooling effect on climate known as the indirect aerosol effect. Observational support for this effect is based mainly on evidence that aerosol number concentrations are connected with droplet concentrations, but it has been difficult to determine the impact of these indirect effects on radiative forcing(1-3). Here we provide observational evidence for a substantial alteration of radiative fluxes due to the indirect aerosol effect. We examine the effect of aerosols on cloud optical properties using measurements of aerosol and cloud properties at two North American sites that span polluted and clean conditions-a continental site in Oklahoma with high aerosol concentrations, and an Arctic site in Alaska with low aerosol concentrations. We determine the cloud optical depth required to fit the observed shortwave downward surface radiation. We then use a cloud parcel model to simulate the cloud optical depth from observed aerosol properties due to the indirect aerosol effect. From the good agreement between the simulated indirect aerosol effect and observed surface radiation, we conclude that the indirect aerosol effect has a significant influence on radiative fluxes.Peer Reviewedhttp://deepblue.lib.umich.edu/bitstream/2027.42/62920/1/nature02234.pd

Exploratory Case‐Control Analysis of Psychosocial Factors and Adult Periodontitis

Peer Reviewedhttps://deepblue.lib.umich.edu/bitstream/2027.42/141163/1/jper1060.pd

Cryptosporidium Priming Is More Effective than Vaccine for Protection against Cryptosporidiosis in a Murine Protein Malnutrition Model

Cryptosporidium is a major cause of severe diarrhea, especially in malnourished children. Using a murine model of C. parvum oocyst challenge that recapitulates clinical features of severe cryptosporidiosis during malnutrition, we interrogated the effect of protein malnutrition (PM) on primary and secondary responses to C. parvum challenge, and tested the differential ability of mucosal priming strategies to overcome the PM-induced susceptibility. We determined that while PM fundamentally alters systemic and mucosal primary immune responses to Cryptosporidium, priming with C. parvum (106 oocysts) provides robust protective immunity against re-challenge despite ongoing PM. C. parvum priming restores mucosal Th1-type effectors (CD3+CD8+CD103+ T-cells) and cytokines (IFNγ, and IL12p40) that otherwise decrease with ongoing PM. Vaccination strategies with Cryptosporidium antigens expressed in the S. Typhi vector 908htr, however, do not enhance Th1-type responses to C. parvum challenge during PM, even though vaccination strongly boosts immunity in challenged fully nourished hosts. Remote non-specific exposures to the attenuated S. Typhi vector alone or the TLR9 agonist CpG ODN-1668 can partially attenuate C. parvum severity during PM, but neither as effectively as viable C. parvum priming. We conclude that although PM interferes with basal and vaccine-boosted immune responses to C. parvum, sustained reductions in disease severity are possible through mucosal activators of host defenses, and specifically C. parvum priming can elicit impressively robust Th1-type protective immunity despite ongoing protein malnutrition. These findings add insight into potential correlates of Cryptosporidium immunity and future vaccine strategies in malnourished children

Laypersons' understanding of relative risk reductions: Randomised cross-sectional study

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Despite increasing recognition of the importance of involving patients in decisions on preventive healthcare interventions, little is known about how well patients understand and utilise information provided on the relative benefits from these interventions. The aim of this study was to explore whether lay people can discriminate between preventive interventions when effectiveness is presented in terms of relative risk reduction (RRR), and whether such discrimination is influenced by presentation of baseline risk.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>The study was a randomised cross-sectional interview survey of a representative sample (n = 1,519) of lay people with mean age 59 (range 40–98) years in Denmark. In addition to demographic information, respondents were asked to consider a hypothetical drug treatment to prevent heart attack. Its effectiveness was randomly presented as RRR of 10, 20, 30, 40, 50 or 60 percent, and half of the respondents were presented with quantitative information on the baseline risk of heart attack. The respondents had also been asked whether they were diagnosed with hypercholesterolemia or had experienced a heart attack.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>In total, 873 (58%) of the respondents consented to the hypothetical treatment. While 49% accepted the treatment when RRR = 10%, the acceptance rate was 58–60% for RRR>10. There was no significant difference in acceptance rates across respondents irrespective of whether they had been presented with quantitative information on baseline risk or not.</p> <p>Conclusion</p> <p>In this study, lay people's decisions about therapy were only slightly influenced by the magnitude of the effect when it was presented in terms of RRR. The results may indicate that lay people have difficulties in discriminating between levels of effectiveness when they are presented in terms of RRR.</p

ERK2 phosphorylation of serine 77 regulates Bmf pro-apoptotic activity

B-cell lymphoma 2 (Bcl-2) homology 3 (BH3)-only proteins represent a class of pro-apoptotic factors that neutralize pro-survival Bcl-2 proteins, and, in some cases, directly activate Bax. The mechanisms of control and the role of BH3-only proteins, such as Bcl-2 like protein 11 extra large and Bad are well studied. By contrast, relatively little is known about the regulation and role of Bcl-2 modifying factor (Bmf). The B-RAF oncogene is mutated in ∼8% of human tumors. We have previously shown that Bmf is upregulated at the transcript level and is required for apoptosis induced by targeting B-RAF signaling in tumor cells harboring mutant B-RAF. In this study, we show that Bmf is regulated at the post-translational level by mutant B-RAF-MEK-ERK2 signaling. Extracellular signal-regulated kinase (ERK2) directly phosphorylates Bmf on serine 74 and serine 77 residues with serine 77 being the predominant site. In addition, serine 77 phosphorylation reduces Bmf pro-apoptotic activity likely through a mechanism independent of altering Bmf localization to the mitochondria and/or interactions with dynein light chain 2 and the pro-survival proteins, B-cell lymphoma extra large, Bcl-2 and Mcl-1. These data identify a novel mode of regulation in Bmf that modulates its pro-apoptotic activity in mutant B-RAF tumor cells

Post-depositional fracturing and subsidence of pumice flow deposits: Lascar Volcano, Chile

Unconsolidated pyroclastic flow deposits of the 1993 eruption of Lascar Volcano, Chile, have, with time, become increasingly dissected by a network of deeply penetrating fractures. The fracture network comprises orthogonal sets of decimeter-wide linear voids that form a pseudo-polygonal grid visible on the deposit surface. In this work, we combine shallow surface geophysical imaging tools with remote sensing observations and direct field measurements of the deposit to investigate these fractures and their underlying causal mechanisms. Based on ground penetrating radar images, the fractures are observed to have propagated to depths of up to 10 m. In addition, orbiting radar interferometry shows that deposit subsidence of up to 1 cm/year occurred between 1993 and 1996 with continued subsidence occurring at a slower rate thereafter. In situ measurements show that 1 m below the surface, the 1993 deposits remain 5°C to 15°C hotter, 18 years after emplacement, than adjacent deposits. Based on the observed subsidence as well as estimated cooling rates, the fractures are inferred to be the combined result of deaeration, thermal contraction, and sedimentary compaction in the months to years following deposition. Significant environmental factors, including regional earthquakes in 1995 and 2007, accelerated settling at punctuated moments in time. The spatially variable fracture pattern relates to surface slope and lithofacies variations as well as substrate lithology. Similar fractures have been reported in other ignimbrites but are generally exposed only in cross section and are often attributed to formation by external forces. Here we suggest that such interpretations should be invoked with caution, and deformation including post-emplacement subsidence and fracturing of loosely packed ash-rich deposits in the months to years postemplacement is a process inherent in the settling of pyroclastic material