The observational signature of modelled torsional waves and comparison to geomagnetic jerks

Torsional Alfven waves involve the interaction of zonal fluid flow and the ambient magnetic field in the core. Consequently, they perturb the background magnetic field and induce a secondary magnetic field. Using a steady background magnetic field from observationally constrained field models and azimuthal velocities from torsional wave forward models, we solve an induction equation for the wave-induced secular variation (SV). We construct time series and maps of wave-induced SV and investigate how previously identified propagation characteristics manifest in the magnetic signals, and whether our modelled travelling torsional waves are capable of producing signals that resemble jerks in terms of amplitude and timescale. Fast torsional waves with amplitudes and timescales consistent with a recent study of the 6 yr ∆LOD signal induce very rapid, small (maximum ∼2 nT/yr at Earth’s surface) SV signals that would likely be difficult to be resolve in observations of Earth’s SV. Slow torsional waves with amplitudes and timescales consistent with other studies produce larger SV signals that reach amplitudes of ∼20 nT/yr at Earth’s surface. We applied a two-part linear regression jerk detection method to the SV induced by slow torsional waves, using the same parameters as used on real SV, which identified several synthetic jerk events. As the local magnetic field morphology dictates which regions are sensitive to zonal core flow, and not all regions are sensitive at the same time, the modelled waves generally produce synthetic jerks that are observed on regional scales and occur in a single SV component. However, high wave amplitudes during reflection from the stress-free CMB induce large-scale SV signals in all components, which results in a global contemporaneous jerk event such as that observed in 1969. In general, the identified events are periodic due to waves passing beneath locations at fixed intervals and the SV signals are smoothly varying. These smooth signals are more consistent with the geomagnetic jerks envisaged by Demetrescu and Dobrica than the sharp ‘V’ shapes that are typically associated with geomagnetic jerks

Inner Core Translation and the Hemispheric Balance of the Geomagnetic Field

Bulk translation of the Earth’s inner core has been proposed as an explanation of observed quasi-hemispheric seismic structure. An important consequence of inner core translation would be the generation of a spherical harmonic degree one heat flow anomaly at the inner core boundary (ICB) that would provide an inhomogeneous forcing for outer core convection. We use geodynamo simulations to investigate the geomagnetic signature of such heterogeneity. Strong hemispheric heterogeneity at the ICB is found to produce a hemispheric signature in both the morphology of the magnetic field and its secular variation; in particular, we note the formation of high-intensity flux patches at high-latitudes and American longitudes in our model with strong ICB heterogeneity. In our simulations, this model provides the best match to the Earth’s field over the past 400 years according to previously proposed measures of field structure. However, these criteria do not include the hemispheric balance of the field. We propose new criteria to measure this balance and find that our model with strong ICB heterogeneity produces the poorest match to the hemispheric balance of the historical geomagnetic field. Resolution of the hemispheric balance of the magnetic field throughout the Holocene would provide a strong test of any proposal of rapid inner core translation

Mantle-induced temperature anomalies do not reach the inner core boundary

Temperature anomalies in Earth’s liquid core reflect the vigour of convection and the nature and extent of thermal core–mantle coupling. Numerical simulations suggest that longitudinal temperature anomalies forced by lateral heat flow variations at the core–mantle boundary (CMB) can greatly exceed the anomalies that arise in homogeneous convection (i.e. with no boundary forcing) and may even penetrate all the way to the inner core boundary. However, it is not clear whether these simulations access the relevant regime for convection in Earth’s core, which is characterized by rapid rotation (low Ekman number E) and strong driving (high Rayleigh number Ra). We access this regime using numerical simulations of non-magnetic rotating convection with imposed heat flow variations at the outer boundary (OB) and investigate the amplitude and spatial pattern of thermal anomalies, focusing on the inner and outer boundaries. The 108 simulations cover the parameter range 10−4 ≤ E ≤ 10−6 and Ra = 1−800 times the critical value. At each Ra and E we consider two heat flow patterns—one derived from seismic tomography and the hemispheric Y11 spherical harmonic pattern—with amplitudes measured by the parameter q⋆ = 2.3, 5 as well as the case of homogeneous convection. At the OB the forcing produces strong longitudinal temperature variations that peak in the equatorial region. Scaling relations suggest that the longitudinal variations are weakly dependent on E and Ra and are much stronger than in homogeneous convection, reaching O(1) K at core conditions if q⋆ ≈ 35. At the inner boundary, latitudinal and longitudinal temperature variations depend weakly on Ra and q⋆ and decrease strongly with E, becoming practically indistinguishable between homogeneous and heterogeneous cases at E = 10−6. Interpreted at core conditions our results suggest that heat flow variations on the CMB are unlikely to explain the large-scale variations observed by seismology at the top of the inner core

Scaling behaviour in spherical shell rotating convection with fixed-flux thermal boundary conditions

Bottom-heated convection in rotating spherical shells provides a simple analogue for many astrophysical and geophysical fluid systems. We construct a database of 74 three-dimensional numerical convection models to investigate the scaling behaviour of seven diagnostics over a range of Ekman and Rayleigh numbers while using a Prandtl number of unity. Our configuration is chosen to model Earth’s core as defined by the fixed flux thermal boundary conditions, radius ratio of and a gravity profile that varies linearly with radius. The quantities of interest are the viscous and thermal boundary layer thickness, mean temperature gradient, mean interior temperature, Nusselt number, horizontal flow length scale, and Reynolds number. We find four parameter regimes characterised by different scaling behaviour. For and low the weakly nonlinear regime is characterised by a balance between viscous, Archimedean and Coriolis forces and the heat transfer is described by weakly nonlinear theory. At low and moderate , the rapidly rotating regime sees inertia take over from viscosity in the global force balance. In this regime the heat transfer scaling has increasing exponent with decreasing Ekman number and shows no saturation to the diffusion free scaling. At high and all the importance of the Coriolis force gradually decreases and all diagnostics continually change in the transitional regime before approaching the scaling behaviour of non-rotating convection

Modelling decadal secular variation with only magnetic diffusion

Secular variation (SV) of Earth’s internal magnetic field is the sum of two contributions, one resulting from core fluid flow and the other from magnetic diffusion. Based on the millenial diffusive timescale of global-scale structures, magnetic diffusion is widely perceived to be too weak to significantly contribute to decadal SV, and indeed is entirely neglected in the commonly adopted end-member of frozen-flux. Such an argument however lacks consideration of radially fine-scaled magnetic structures in the outermost part of the liquid core, whose diffusive timescale is much shorter. Here we consider the opposite end-member model to frozen flux, that of purely diffusive evolution associated with the total absence of fluid flow. Our work is based on a variational formulation, where we seek an optimised full-sphere initial magnetic field structure whose diffusive evolution best fits, over various time windows, a time-dependent magnetic field model. We present models which are regularised based on their magnetic energy, and consider how well they can fit the COV-OBS.x1 ensemble mean using a global error bound based on the standard deviation of the ensemble. within the core. For With the se regularised models, over time periods of up to 30 years, it is possible to fit COV-OBS.x1 within one standard deviation at all times. For time windows up to 102 years we show that our models can fit COV-OBS.x1 when adopting a time-averaged global uncertainty. Our modelling is sensitive only to magnetic structures in approximately the top 10% of the liquid core, and show an increased surface area of reversed flux at depth. The diffusive models recover fundamental characteristics of field evolution including the historical westward drift, the recent acceleration of the North Magnetic Pole and reversed-flux emergence. Based on a global time-averaged residual, our diffusive models fit the evolution of the geomagnetic field comparably, and sometimes better than, frozen-flux models within short time windows

Thermal boundary layer structure in convection with and without rotation

Convection occurs in many settings from metal production to planetary interiors and atmospheres. To understand the dynamics of these systems it is vital to be able to predict the heat transport which is controlled by the thermal boundary layers (TBL). An important issue in the study of convective fluid dynamics is then to determine the temperature distribution within these thin layers in the vicinity of the bounding walls. Deviations from the classical Rayleigh-Bénard convection paradigm such as the addition of rotation or fixed heat-flux (rather than fixed temperature) boundaries compromise the standard ways of defining the width of the TBL. We propose an alternative method for defining the TBL using the location at which the advective and conductive contributions to the heat transport become equal. We show that this method can be robustly applied to two-dimensional (2D) nonrotating convection between no-slip boundaries with fixed temperature or fixed heat-flux thermal boundary conditions and three-dimensional (3D) rotating convection simulations with free-slip boundaries

Fast Directional Changes during Geomagnetic Transitions: Global Reversals or Local Fluctuations?

Paleomagnetic investigations from sediments in Central and Southern Italy found directional changes of the order of 10∘ per year during the last geomagnetic field reversal (which took place about 780,000 years ago). These values are orders of magnitudes larger than what is expected from the estimated millennial timescales for geomagnetic field reversals. It is yet unclear whether these extreme changes define the timescale of global dipolar change or whether they indicate a rapid, but spatially localised feature that is not indicative of global variations. Here, we address this issue by calculating the minimum amount of kinetic energy that flows at the top of the core required to instantaneously reproduce these two scenarios. We found that optimised flow structures compatible with the global-scale interpretation of directional change require about one order of magnitude more energy than those that reproduce local change. In particular, we found that the most recently reported directional variations from the Sulmona Basin, in Central Italy, can be reproduced by a core-surface flow with rms values comparable to, or significantly lower than, present-day estimates of about 8 to 22 km/y. Conversely, interpreting the observations as global changes requires rms flow values in excess of 77 km/y, with pointwise maximal velocities of 127 km/y, which we deem improbable. We therefore concluded that the extreme variations reported for the Sulmona Basin were likely caused by a local, transient feature during a longer transition

Climatological predictions of the auroral zone locations driven by moderate and severe space weather events

Auroral zones are regions where, in an average sense, aurorae due to solar activity are most likely spotted. Their shape and, similarly, the geographical locations most vulnerable to extreme space weather events (which we term ‘danger zones’) are modulated by Earth’s time-dependent internal magnetic field whose structure changes on yearly to decadal timescales. Strategies for mitigating ground-based space weather impacts over the next few decades can benefit from accurate forecasts of this evolution. Existing auroral zone forecasts use simplified assumptions of geomagnetic field variations. By harnessing the capability of modern geomagnetic field forecasts based on the dynamics of Earth’s core we estimate the evolution of the auroral zones and of the danger zones over the next 50 years. Our results predict that space-weather related risk will not change significantly in Europe, Australia and New Zealand. Mid-to-high latitude cities such as Edinburgh, Copenhagen and Dunedin will remain in high-risk regions. However, northward change of the auroral and danger zones over North America will likely cause urban centres such as Edmonton and Labrador City to be exposed by 2070 to the potential impact of severe solar activity

International Geomagnetic Reference Field: the thirteenth generation

In December 2019, the International Association of Geomagnetism and Aeronomy (IAGA) Division V Working Group (V-MOD) adopted the thirteenth generation of the International Geomagnetic Reference Field (IGRF). This IGRF updates the previous generation with a definitive main field model for epoch 2015.0, a main field model for epoch 2020.0, and a predictive linear secular variation for 2020.0 to 2025.0. This letter provides the equations defining the IGRF, the spherical harmonic coefficients for this thirteenth generation model, maps of magnetic declination, inclination and total field intensity for the epoch 2020.0, and maps of their predicted rate of change for the 2020.0 to 2025.0 time period

Changes to the Fossil Record of Insects through Fifteen Years of Discovery

The first and last occurrences of hexapod families in the fossil record are compiled from publications up to end-2009. The major features of these data are compared with those of previous datasets (1993 and 1994). About a third of families (>400) are new to the fossil record since 1994, over half of the earlier, existing families have experienced changes in their known stratigraphic range and only about ten percent have unchanged ranges. Despite these significant additions to knowledge, the broad pattern of described richness through time remains similar, with described richness increasing steadily through geological history and a shift in dominant taxa, from Palaeoptera and Polyneoptera to Paraneoptera and Holometabola, after the Palaeozoic. However, after detrending, described richness is not well correlated with the earlier datasets, indicating significant changes in shorter-term patterns. There is reduced Palaeozoic richness, peaking at a different time, and a less pronounced Permian decline. A pronounced Triassic peak and decline is shown, and the plateau from the mid Early Cretaceous to the end of the period remains, albeit at substantially higher richness compared to earlier datasets. Origination and extinction rates are broadly similar to before, with a broad decline in both through time but episodic peaks, including end-Permian turnover. Origination more consistently exceeds extinction compared to previous datasets and exceptions are mainly in the Palaeozoic. These changes suggest that some inferences about causal mechanisms in insect macroevolution are likely to differ as well