A generic approach for the development of short-term predictions of Escherichia coli and biotoxins in shellfish

Microbiological contamination or elevated marine biotoxin concentrations within shellfish can result in temporary closure of shellfish aquaculture harvesting, leading to financial loss for the aquaculture business and a potential reduction in consumer confidence in shellfish products. We present a method for predicting short-term variations in shellfish concentrations of Escherichia coli and biotoxin (okadaic acid and its derivates dinophysistoxins and pectenotoxins). The approach was evaluated for 2 contrasting shellfish harvesting areas. Through a meta-data analysis and using environmental data in situ, satellite observations and meteorological nowcasts and forecasts), key environmental drivers were identified and used to develop models to predict E. coli and biotoxin concentrations within shellfish. Models were trained and evaluated using independent datasets, and the best models were identified based on the model exhibiting the lowest root mean square error. The best biotoxin model was able to provide 1 wk forecasts with an accuracy of 86%, a 0% false positive rate and a 0% false discovery rate (n = 78 observations) when used to predict the closure of shellfish beds due to biotoxin. The best E. coli models were used to predict the European hygiene classification of the shellfish beds to an accuracy of 99% (n = 107 observations) and 98% (n = 63 observations) for a bay (St Austell Bay) and an estuary (Turnaware Bar), respectively. This generic approach enables high accuracy short-term farm-specific forecasts, based on readily accessible environmental data and observations

Formalization of Transform Methods using HOL Light

Transform methods, like Laplace and Fourier, are frequently used for analyzing the dynamical behaviour of engineering and physical systems, based on their transfer function, and frequency response or the solutions of their corresponding differential equations. In this paper, we present an ongoing project, which focuses on the higher-order logic formalization of transform methods using HOL Light theorem prover. In particular, we present the motivation of the formalization, which is followed by the related work. Next, we present the task completed so far while highlighting some of the challenges faced during the formalization. Finally, we present a roadmap to achieve our objectives, the current status and the future goals for this project.Comment: 15 Pages, CICM 201

The grinch who stole wisdom

Dr. Seuss is wise. How the Grinch Stole Christmas (Seuss, 1957) could serve as a parable for our time. It can also be seen as a roadmap for the development of contemplative wisdom. The abiding popularity of How the Grinch Stole Christmas additionally suggests that contemplative wisdom is more readily available to ordinary people, even children, than is normally thought. This matters because from the point of view of contemplatives in any of the world's philosophies or religions, people are confused about wisdom. The content of the nascent field of wisdom studies, they might say, is largely not wisdom at all but rather what it's like to live in a particular kind of prison cell, a well appointed cell perhaps, but not a place that makes possible either personal satisfaction or deep problem solving. I believe that what the contemplative traditions have to say is important; they offer a different orientation to what personal wisdom is, how to develop it, and how to use it in the world than is presently contained in either our popular culture or our sciences. In order to illustrate this I will examine, in some detail, one contemplative path within Buddhism. Buddhism is particularly useful in this respect because its practices are nontheistic and thus avoid many of the cultural landmines associated with the contemplative aspects of Western religions

WiseEye: next generation expandable and programmable camera trap platform for wildlife research

Funding: The work was supported by the RCUK Digital Economy programme to the dot.rural Digital Economy Hub; award reference: EP/G066051/1. The work of S. Newey and RJI was part funded by the Scottish Government's Rural and Environment Science and Analytical Services (RESAS). Details published as an Open Source Toolkit, PLOS Journals at: http://dx.doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0169758Peer reviewedPublisher PD

Change in Composition of the Anopheles Gambiae Complex and its Possible Implications for the Transmission of Malaria and Lymphatic Filariasis in North-Eastern Tanzania.

A dramatic decline in the incidence of malaria due to Plasmodium falciparum infection in coastal East Africa has recently been reported to be paralleled (or even preceded) by an equally dramatic decline in malaria vector density, despite absence of organized vector control. As part of investigations into possible causes for the change in vector population density, the present study analysed the Anopheles gambiae s.l. sibling species composition in north-eastern Tanzania. The study was in two parts. The first compared current species complex composition in freshly caught An. gambiae s.l. complex from three villages to the composition reported from previous studies carried out 2-4 decades ago in the same villages. The second took advantage of a sample of archived dried An. gambiae s.l. complex specimens collected regularly from a fourth study village since 2005. Both fresh and archived dried specimens were identified to sibling species of the An. gambiae s.l. complex by PCR. The same specimens were moreover examined for Plasmodium falciparum and Wuchereria bancrofti infection by PCR. As in earlier studies, An. gambiae s.s., Anopheles merus and Anopheles arabiensis were identified as sibling species found in the area. However, both study parts indicated a marked change in sibling species composition over time. From being by far the most abundant in the past An. gambiae s.s. was now the most rare, whereas An. arabiensis had changed from being the most rare to the most common. P. falciparum infection was rarely detected in the examined specimens (and only in An. arabiensis) whereas W. bancrofti infection was prevalent and detected in all three sibling species. The study indicates that a major shift in An. gambiae s.l. sibling species composition has taken place in the study area in recent years. Combined with the earlier reported decline in overall malaria vector density, the study suggests that this decline has been most marked for An. gambiae s.s., and least for An. arabiensis, leading to current predominance of the latter. Due to differences in biology and vectorial capacity of the An. gambiae s.l. complex the change in sibling species composition will have important implications for the epidemiology and control of malaria and lymphatic filariasis in the study area

Solving Quantum Ground-State Problems with Nuclear Magnetic Resonance

Quantum ground-state problems are computationally hard problems; for general many-body Hamiltonians, there is no classical or quantum algorithm known to be able to solve them efficiently. Nevertheless, if a trial wavefunction approximating the ground state is available, as often happens for many problems in physics and chemistry, a quantum computer could employ this trial wavefunction to project the ground state by means of the phase estimation algorithm (PEA). We performed an experimental realization of this idea by implementing a variational-wavefunction approach to solve the ground-state problem of the Heisenberg spin model with an NMR quantum simulator. Our iterative phase estimation procedure yields a high accuracy for the eigenenergies (to the 10^-5 decimal digit). The ground-state fidelity was distilled to be more than 80%, and the singlet-to-triplet switching near the critical field is reliably captured. This result shows that quantum simulators can better leverage classical trial wavefunctions than classical computers.Comment: 11 pages, 13 figure

Can a falling tree make a noise in two forests at the same time?

It is a commonplace to claim that quantum mechanics supports the old idea that a tree falling in a forest makes no sound unless there is a listener present. In fact, this conclusion is far from obvious. Furthermore, if a tunnelling particle is observed in the barrier region, it collapses to a state in which it is no longer tunnelling. Does this imply that while tunnelling, the particle can not have any physical effects? I argue that this is not the case, and moreover, speculate that it may be possible for a particle to have effects on two spacelike separate apparatuses simultaneously. I discuss the measurable consequences of such a feat, and speculate about possible statistical tests which could distinguish this view of quantum mechanics from a ``corpuscular'' one. Brief remarks are made about an experiment underway at Toronto to investigate these issues.Comment: 9 pp, Latex, 3 figs, to appear in Proc. Obsc. Unr. Conf.; Fig 2 postscript repaired on 26.10.9

Neural correlates of enhanced visual short-term memory for angry faces: An fMRI study

Copyright: © 2008 Jackson et al.Background: Fluid and effective social communication requires that both face identity and emotional expression information are encoded and maintained in visual short-term memory (VSTM) to enable a coherent, ongoing picture of the world and its players. This appears to be of particular evolutionary importance when confronted with potentially threatening displays of emotion - previous research has shown better VSTM for angry versus happy or neutral face identities.Methodology/Principal Findings: Using functional magnetic resonance imaging, here we investigated the neural correlates of this angry face benefit in VSTM. Participants were shown between one and four to-be-remembered angry, happy, or neutral faces, and after a short retention delay they stated whether a single probe face had been present or not in the previous display. All faces in any one display expressed the same emotion, and the task required memory for face identity. We find enhanced VSTM for angry face identities and describe the right hemisphere brain network underpinning this effect, which involves the globus pallidus, superior temporal sulcus, and frontal lobe. Increased activity in the globus pallidus was significantly correlated with the angry benefit in VSTM. Areas modulated by emotion were distinct from those modulated by memory load.Conclusions/Significance: Our results provide evidence for a key role of the basal ganglia as an interface between emotion and cognition, supported by a frontal, temporal, and occipital network.The authors were supported by a Wellcome Trust grant (grant number 077185/Z/05/Z) and by BBSRC (UK) grant BBS/B/16178

Eye Movements Predict Recollective Experience

Previously encountered stimuli can bring to mind a vivid memory of the episodic context in which the stimulus was first experienced ("remembered'' stimuli), or can simply seem familiar ("known'' stimuli). Past studies suggest that more attentional resources are required to encode stimuli that are subsequently remembered than known. However, it is unclear if the attentional resources are distributed differently during encoding and recognition of remembered and known stimuli. Here, we record eye movements while participants encode photos, and later while indicating whether the photos are remembered, known or new. Eye fixations were more clustered during both encoding and recognition of remembered photos relative to known photos. Thus, recognition of photos that bring to mind a vivid memory for the episodic context in which they were experienced is associated with less distributed overt attention during encoding and recognition. The results suggest that remembering is related to encoding of a few distinct details of a photo rather than the photo as a whole. In turn, during recognition remembering may be trigged by enhanced memory for the salient details of the photos

Institutions, Human Capital, and Development

In this article, we revisit the relationship among institutions, human capital, and development. We argue that empirical models that treat institutions and human capital as exogenous are misspecified, both because of the usual omitted variable bias problems and because of differential measurement error in these variables, and that this misspecification is at the root of the very large returns of human capital, about four to five times greater than that implied by micro (Mincerian) estimates, found in the previous literature. Using cross-country and cross-regional regressions, we show that when we focus on historically determined differences in human capital and control for the effect of institutions, the impact of institutions on long-run development is robust, whereas the estimates of the effect of human capital are much diminished and become consistent with micro estimates. Using historical and cross-country regression evidence, we also show that there is no support for the view that differences in the human capital endowments of early European colonists have been a major factor in the subsequent institutional development of former colonies.Comisión Nacional de Investigación Ciencia y Tecnología (Chile) (CONICYT/Programa de Investigación Asociativa (project SOC1102))United States. Army Research Office (ARO MURI W911NF-12-1-0509