Precalibrating an intermediate complexity climate model

Credible climate predictions require a rational quantification of uncertainty, but full Bayesian calibration requires detailed estimates of prior probability distributions and covariances, which are difficult to obtain in practice. We describe a simplified procedure, termed precalibration, which provides an approximate quantification of uncertainty in climate prediction, and requires only that uncontroversially implausible values of certain inputs and outputs are identified. The method is applied to intermediate-complexity model simulations of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC) and confirms the existence of a cliff-edge catastrophe in freshwaterforcing input space. When uncertainty in 14 further parameters is taken into account, an implausible, AMOC-off, region remains as a robust feature of the model dynamics, but its location is found to depend strongly on values of the other parameters

On the use of Bayesian decision theory for issuing natural hazard warnings

This is the final version of the article. Available from the Royal Society via the DOI in this record.Warnings for natural hazards improve societal resilience and are a good example of decision-making under uncertainty. A warning system is only useful if well defined and thus understood by stakeholders. However, most operational warning systems are heuristic: not formally or transparently defined. Bayesian decision theory provides a framework for issuing warnings under uncertainty but has not been fully exploited. Here, a decision theoretic framework is proposed for hazard warnings. The framework allows any number of warning levels and future states of nature, and a mathematical model for constructing the necessary loss functions for both generic and specific end-users is described. The approach is illustrated using one-day ahead warnings of daily severe precipitation over the UK, and compared to the current decision tool used by the UK Met Office. A probability model is proposed to predict precipitation, given ensemble forecast information, and loss functions are constructed for two generic stakeholders: an end-user and a forecaster. Results show that the Met Office tool issues fewer high-level warnings compared with our system for the generic end-user, suggesting the former may not be suitable for risk averse end-users. In addition, raw ensemble forecasts are shown to be unreliable and result in higher losses from warnings.This work was supported by the Natural Environment Research Council (Consortium on Risk in the Environment: Diagnostics, Integration, Benchmarking, Learning and Elicitation (CREDIBLE); grant no. NE/J017043/1)

Principles of structural safety studies

This chapter addresses principles of advanced structural safety studies in association with various types of extreme and accidental events. The structural consequences of extreme conditions and accidents are inevitably volatile, uncertain, complex, and ambiguous (VUCA). Methods to model random parameters affecting such extreme conditions and accidents are presented. The importance of limit states- and risk-based approaches is emphasized to manage VUCA environments. Future trends toward advanced structural safety studies are addressed

Radiation burnthrough measurements to infer opacity at conditions close to the solar radiative zone–convective zone boundary

Recent measurements at the Sandia National Laboratory of the x-ray transmission of iron plasma have inferred opacities much higher than predicted by theory, which casts doubt on modeling of iron x-ray radiative opacity at conditions close to the solar convective zone-radiative zone boundary. An increased radiative opacity of the solar mixture, in particular iron, is a possible explanation for the disagreement in the position of the solar convection zone-radiative zone boundary as measured by helioseismology and predicted by modeling using the most recent photosphere analysis of the elemental composition. Here, we present data from radiation burnthrough experiments, which do not support a large increase in the opacity of iron at conditions close to the base of the solar convection zone and provide a constraint on the possible values of both the mean opacity and the opacity in the x-ray range of the Sandia experiments. The data agree with opacity values from current state-of-the-art opacity modeling using the CASSANDRA opacity code

Solvent effects in permeation assessed in vivo by skin surface biopsy

BACKGROUND: Transdermal drug delivery has become an important means of drug administration. It presents numerous advantages but it is still limited by the small number of drugs with a suitable profile. The use of solvents that affect the skin barrier function is one of the classic strategies of penetration enhancement. Some of these solvents have well characterised actions on the stratum corneum, but the majority are still selected using empirical criteria. The objective of this work was to conduct a systematic study on the ability to affect skin permeation of solvents commonly used in transdermal formulations. An innovative methodology in this area was employed, consisting of the combination of skin surface biopsy with colorimetry. METHODS: The study compared in vivo differences in the permeation of a hydrophilic (methylene blue) and a lipophilic (Sudan III) dye, after treatment of the skin with different vehicles. Consecutive skin surface biopsies of each site were taken and the cumulative amounts of the dyes in the stripped stratum corneum were measured by reflectance colourimetry. RESULTS: Results indicate that the amount of methylene blue present in the stratum corneum varied significantly with different skin pre-treatments. Some solvents provided a 1.5 fold penetration enhancement but others decreased by almost half the permeation of the dye. The permeation of Sudan III was less significantly affected by solvent pre-treatment. CONCLUSIONS: This study has only superficially explored the potential of the combination of skin surface biopsy and colourimetry, but the encouraging results obtained confirm that the methodology can be extended to the study of more complex formulations

Anti-invasive and antiangiogenic effects of MMI-166 on malignant glioma cells

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>The constitutive overexpression of matrix metalloproteinases (MMPs) is frequently observed in malignant tumours. In particular, MMP-2 and MMP-9 have been reported to be closely associated with invasion and angiogenesis in malignant gliomas. Our study aimed to evaluate the antitumour effects of MMI-166 (Nalpha-[4-(2-Phenyl-2H- tetrazole-5-yl) phenyl sulfonyl]-D-tryptophan), a third generation MMP inhibitor, on three human glioma cell lines (T98G, U87MG, and ONS12) in vitro and in vivo.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>The effects of MMI-166 on the gelatinolytic activity was analysed by gelatine zymography. The anti-invasive effect of MMI-166 was analysed by an in vitro invasion assay. An in vitro angiogenesis assay was also performed. In vitro growth inhibition of glioma cells by MMI-166 was determined by the MTT assay. The effect of MMI-166 on an orthotropic implantation model using athymic mice was also evaluated.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>Gelatine zymography revealed that MMP-2 and MMP-9 activities were suppressed by MMI-166. The invasion of glioma cells was suppressed by MMI-166. The angiogenesis assay showed that MMI-166 had a suppressive effect on glioma cell-induced angiogenesis. However, MMI-166 did not suppress glioma cell proliferation in the MTT assay. In vivo, MMI-166 suppressed tumour growth in athymic mice implanted orthotropically with T98G cells and showed an inhibitory effect on tumour-induced angiogenesis and tumour growth. This is the first report of the effect of a third generation MMP inhibitor on malignant glioma cells.</p> <p>Conclusions</p> <p>These results suggest that MMI-166 may have potentially suppressive effects on the invasion and angiogenesis of malignant gliomas.</p

The effects of prolonged wear of textured shoe insoles on gait, foot sensation and proprioception in people with Multiple Sclerosis: protocol for a randomised controlled trial

Background: Many people with multiple sclerosis experience problems with walking, which can make daily activities difficult and often leads to falls. Foot sensation plays an important role in keeping the body balanced whilst walking; however, people with multiple sclerosis often have poor sensation on the soles of their feet. Wearing a specially designed shoe insole, which enhances plantar sensory information, could help people with multiple sclerosis to walk better. This study will explore whether long-term wear of a textured insole can improve walking in people with multiple sclerosis

Towards a typology for constrained climate model forecasts

In recent years several methodologies have been developed to combine and interpret ensembles of climate models with the aim of quantifying uncertainties in climate projections. Constrained climate model forecasts have been generated by combining various choices of metrics used to weight individual ensemble members, with diverse approaches to sampling the ensemble. The forecasts obtained are often significantly different, even when based on the same model output. Therefore, a climate model forecast classification system can serve two roles: to provide a way for forecast producers to self-classify their forecasts; and to provide information on the methodological assumptions underlying the forecast generation and its uncertainty when forecasts are used for impacts studies. In this review we propose a possible classification system based on choices of metrics and sampling strategies. We illustrate the impact of some of the possible choices in the uncertainty quantification of large scale projections of temperature and precipitation changes, and briefly discuss possible connections between climate forecast uncertainty quantification and decision making approaches in the climate change context

Glucocorticoids promote structural and functional maturation of foetal cardiomyocytes: a role for PGC-1α

Glucocorticoid levels rise dramatically in late gestation to mature foetal organs in readiness for postnatal life. Immature heart function may compromise survival. Cardiomyocyte glucocorticoid receptor (GR) is required for the structural and functional maturation of the foetal heart in vivo, yet the molecular mechanisms are largely unknown. Here we asked if GR activation in foetal cardiomyocytes in vitro elicits similar maturational changes. We show that physiologically relevant glucocorticoid levels improve contractility of primary-mouse-foetal cardiomyocytes, promote Z-disc assembly and the appearance of mature myofibrils, and increase mitochondrial activity. Genes induced in vitro mimic those induced in vivo and include PGC-1α, a critical regulator of cardiac mitochondrial capacity. SiRNA-mediated abrogation of the glucocorticoid induction of PGC-1α in vitro abolished the effect of glucocorticoid on myofibril structure and mitochondrial oxygen consumption. Using RNA sequencing we identified a number of transcriptional regulators, including PGC-1α, induced as primary targets of GR in foetal cardiomyocytes. These data demonstrate that PGC-1α is a key mediator of glucocorticoid-induced maturation of foetal cardiomyocyte structure and identify other candidate transcriptional regulators that may play critical roles in the transition of the foetal to neonatal heart