A counterfactual simulation model of causal judgments for physical events

How do people make causal judgments about physical events? We introduce the counterfactual simulation model (CSM) which predicts causal judgments in physical settings by comparing what actually happened with what would have happened in relevant counterfactual situations. The CSM postulates different aspects of causation that capture the extent to which a cause made a difference to whether and how the outcome occurred, and whether the cause was sufficient and robust. We test the CSM in several experiments in which participants make causal judgments about dynamic collision events. A preliminary study establishes a very close quantitative mapping between causal and counterfactual judgments. Experiment 1 demonstrates that counterfactuals are necessary for explaining causal judgments. Participants' judgments differed dramatically between pairs of situations in which what actually happened was identical, but where what would have happened differed. Experiment 2 features multiple candidate causes and shows that participants' judgments are sensitive to different aspects of causation. The CSM provides a better fit to participants' judgments than a heuristic model which uses features based on what actually happened. We discuss how the CSM can be used to model the semantics of different causal verbs, how it captures related concepts such as physical support, and how its predictions extend beyond the physical domain. (PsycInfo Database Record (c) 2021 APA, all rights reserved)

Eye-Tracking Causality

How do people make causal judgments? What role, if any, does counterfactual simulation play? Counterfactual theories of causal judgments predict that people compare what actually happened with what would have happened if the candidate cause had been absent. Process theories predict that people focus only on what actually happened, to assess the mechanism linking candidate cause and outcome. We tracked participants' eye movements while they judged whether one billiard ball caused another one to go through a gate or prevented it from going through. Both participants' looking patterns and their judgments demonstrated that counterfactual simulation played a critical role. Participants simulated where the target ball would have gone if the candidate cause had been removed from the scene. The more certain participants were that the outcome would have been different, the stronger the causal judgments. These results provide the first direct evidence for spontaneous counterfactual simulation in an important domain of high-level cognition

Callous-unemotional traits, low cortisol reactivity and physical aggression in children: findings from the Wirral Child Health and Development Study

Callous-unemotional (CU) traits are thought to confer risk for aggression via reduced amygdala responsivity to distress cues in others. Low cortisol reactivity is thought to confer risk for aggression via reduced arousal and this effect may be confined to boys. We tested the hypothesis that the association between childhood CU traits and aggression would be greatest in the absence of the inhibitory effects of cortisol reactivity, and that this effect would be sex dependent. Participants were 283 members of a stratified subsample within an epidemiological longitudinal cohort (WCHADS). Cortisol reactivity to a social stressor was assessed at 5 years. CU traits were reported by mothers at 5 years, and physical aggression by mothers and teachers at age 7. Results showed that CU traits were associated with elevated aggression at 7 years controlling for earlier aggression. There was no main effect of cortisol reactivity on regression. The association between CU traits and aggression was moderated by cortisol reactivity (p = .011) with a strong association between CU traits and aggression in the presence of low reactivity, and a small and non-significant association in the presence of high reactivity. This association was further moderated by child sex (p = .041) with the joint effect of high CU traits and low cortisol reactivity seen only in boys (p = .016). We report first evidence that a combined deficit in inhibitory processes associated with CU traits and low cortisol reactivity increases risk for childhood aggression, in a sex-dependent manner

Measuring the effect of enhanced cleaning in a UK hospital : a prospective cross-over study

Increasing hospital-acquired infections have generated much attention over the last decade. There is evidence that hygienic cleaning has a role in the control of hospital-acquired infections. This study aimed to evaluate the potential impact of one additional cleaner by using microbiological standards based on aerobic colony counts and the presence of Staphylococcus aureus including meticillin-resistant S. aureus. We introduced an additional cleaner into two matched wards from Monday to Friday, with each ward receiving enhanced cleaning for six months in a cross-over design. Ten hand-touch sites on both wards were screened weekly using standardised methods and patients were monitored for meticillin-resistant S. aureus infection throughout the year-long study. Patient and environmental meticillin-resistant S. aureus isolates were characterised using molecular methods in order to investigate temporal and clonal relationships. Enhanced cleaning was associated with a 32.5% reduction in levels of microbial contamination at handtouch sites when wards received enhanced cleaning (P < 0.0001: 95% CI 20.2%, 42.9%). Near-patient sites (lockers, overbed tables and beds) were more frequently contaminated with meticillin-resistant S. aureus/S. aureus than sites further from the patient (P = 0.065). Genotyping identified indistinguishable strains from both handtouch sites and patients. There was a 26.6% reduction in new meticillin-resistant S. aureus infections on the wards receiving extra cleaning, despite higher meticillin-resistant S. aureus patient-days and bed occupancy rates during enhanced cleaning periods (P = 0.032: 95% CI 7.7%, 92.3%). Adjusting for meticillin-resistant S. aureus patient-days and based upon nine new meticillin-resistant S. aureus infections seen during routine cleaning, we expected 13 new infections during enhanced cleaning periods rather than the four that actually occurred. Clusters of new meticillin-resistant S. aureus infections were identified 2 to 4 weeks after the cleaner left both wards. Enhanced cleaning saved the hospital £30,000 to £70,000.Introducing one extra cleaner produced a measurable effect on the clinical environment, with apparent benefit to patients regarding meticillin-resistant S. aureus infection. Molecular epidemiological methods supported the possibility that patients acquired meticillin-resistant S. aureus from environmental sources. These findings suggest that additional research is warranted to further clarify the environmental, clinical and economic impact of enhanced hygienic cleaning as a component in the control of hospital-acquired infection

Network Archaeology: Uncovering Ancient Networks from Present-day Interactions

Often questions arise about old or extinct networks. What proteins interacted in a long-extinct ancestor species of yeast? Who were the central players in the Last.fm social network 3 years ago? Our ability to answer such questions has been limited by the unavailability of past versions of networks. To overcome these limitations, we propose several algorithms for reconstructing a network's history of growth given only the network as it exists today and a generative model by which the network is believed to have evolved. Our likelihood-based method finds a probable previous state of the network by reversing the forward growth model. This approach retains node identities so that the history of individual nodes can be tracked. We apply these algorithms to uncover older, non-extant biological and social networks believed to have grown via several models, including duplication-mutation with complementarity, forest fire, and preferential attachment. Through experiments on both synthetic and real-world data, we find that our algorithms can estimate node arrival times, identify anchor nodes from which new nodes copy links, and can reveal significant features of networks that have long since disappeared.Comment: 16 pages, 10 figure

A specific case in the classification of woods by FTIR and chemometric: discrimination of Fagales from Malpighiales

Fourier transform infrared (FTIR) spectroscopic data was used to classify wood samples from nine species within the Fagales and Malpighiales using a range of multivariate statistical methods. Taxonomic classification of the family Fagaceae and Betulaceae from Angiosperm Phylogenetic System Classification (APG II System) was successfully performed using supervised pattern recognition techniques. A methodology for wood sample discrimination was developed using both sapwood and heartwood samples. Ten and eight biomarkers emerged from the dataset to discriminate order and family, respectively. In the species studied FTIR in combination with multivariate analysis highlighted significant chemical differences in hemicelluloses, cellulose and guaiacyl (lignin) and shows promise as a suitable approach for wood sample classification

Muscle Fiber Type-Dependent Differences in the Regulation of Protein Synthesis

This study examined fiber type-dependent differences in the regulation of protein synthesis in individual muscle fibers found within the same whole muscle. Specifically, the in vivo SUrface SEnsing of Translation (SUnSET) methodology was used to measure protein synthesis in type 1, 2A, 2X and 2B fibers of the mouse plantaris muscle, in response to food deprivation (FD), and mechanical overload induced by synergist ablation (SA). The results show that 48 h of FD induced a greater decrease in protein synthesis in type 2X and 2B fibers compared to type 1 and 2A fibers. Type 2X and 2B fibers also had the largest FD-induced decrease in total S6 protein and Ser240/244 S6 phosphorylation, respectively. Moreover, only type 2X and 2B fibers displayed a FD-induced decrease in cross-sectional area (CSA). Ten days of SA also induced fiber type-dependent responses, with type 2B fibers having the smallest SA-induced increases in protein synthesis, CSA and Ser240/244 S6 phosphorylation, but the largest increase in total S6 protein. Embryonic myosin heavy chain (MHCEmb) positive fibers were also found in SA muscles and the protein synthesis rates, levels of S6 Ser240/244 phosphorylation, and total S6 protein content, were 3.6-, 6.1- and 2.9-fold greater than that found in fibers from control muscles, respectively. Overall, these results reveal differential responses in the regulation of protein synthesis and fiber size between fiber types found within the same whole muscle. Moreover, these findings demonstrate that changes found at the whole muscle level do not necessarily reflect changes in individual fiber types

Paediatric obsessive-compulsive disorder and depressive symptoms: clinical correlates and CBT treatment outcomes.

Depression frequently co-occurs with paediatric obsessive-compulsive disorder (OCD), yet the clinical correlates and impact of depression on CBT outcomes remain unclear. The prevalence and clinical correlates of depression were examined in a paediatric specialist OCD-clinic sample (N = 295; Mean = 15 [7 - 18] years, 42 % female), using both dimensional (Beck Depression Inventory-youth; n = 261) and diagnostic (Development and Wellbeing Assessment; n = 127) measures of depression. The impact of depressive symptoms and suspected disorders on post-treatment OCD severity was examined in a sub-sample who received CBT, with or without SSRI medication (N = 100). Fifty-one per-cent of patients reported moderately or extremely elevated depressive symptoms and 26 % (95 % CI: 18 - 34) met criteria for a suspected depressive disorder. Depressive symptoms and depressive disorders were associated with worse OCD symptom severity and global functioning prior to CBT. Individuals with depression were more likely to be female, have had a psychiatric inpatient admission and less likely to be attending school (ps < 0.01). OCD and depressive symptom severity significantly decreased after CBT. Depressive symptoms and depressive disorders predicted worse post-treatment OCD severity (βs = 0.19 and 0.26, ps < 0.05) but became non-significant when controlling for pre-treatment OCD severity (βs = 0.05 and 0.13, ns). Depression is common in paediatric OCD and is associated with more severe OCD and poorer functioning. However, depression severity decreases over the course of CBT for OCD and is not independently associated with worse outcomes, supporting the recommendation for treatment as usual in the presence of depressive symptoms

A new concept for the combination of optical interferometers and high-resolution spectrographs

The combination of high spatial and spectral resolution in optical astronomy enables new observational approaches to many open problems in stellar and circumstellar astrophysics. However, constructing a high-resolution spectrograph for an interferometer is a costly and time-intensive undertaking. Our aim is to show that, by coupling existing high-resolution spectrographs to existing interferometers, one could observe in the domain of high spectral and spatial resolution, and avoid the construction of a new complex and expensive instrument. We investigate in this article the different challenges which arise from combining an interferometer with a high-resolution spectrograph. The requirements for the different sub-systems are determined, with special attention given to the problems of fringe tracking and dispersion. A concept study for the combination of the VLTI (Very Large Telescope Interferometer) with UVES (UV-Visual Echelle Spectrograph) is carried out, and several other specific instrument pairings are discussed. We show that the proposed combination of an interferometer with a high-resolution spectrograph is indeed feasible with current technology, for a fraction of the cost of building a whole new spectrograph. The impact on the existing instruments and their ongoing programs would be minimal.Comment: 27 pages, 9 figures, Experimental Astronomy; v2: accepted versio