Predicting the distributions of under-recorded Odonata using species distribution models

1. Absences in distributional data may result either from the true absence of a species or from a false absence due to lack of recording effort. I use general linear models (GLMs) and species distribution models (SDMs) to investigate this problem in North American Odonata and present a potential solution. 2. I use multi-model selection methods based on Akaike's information criterion to evaluate the ability of water-energy variables, human population density, and recording effort to explain patterns of odonate diversity in the USA and Canada using GLMs. Water-energy variables explain a large proportion of the variance in odonate diversity, but the residuals of these models are significantly related to recorder effort. 3. I then create SDMs for 176species that are found solely in the USA and Canada using model averaging of eight different methods. These give predictions of hypothetical true distributions of each of the 176species based on climate variables, which I compare with observed distributions to identify areas where potential under-recording may occur. 4. Under-recording appears to be highest in northern Canada, Alaska, and Quebec, as well as the interior of the USA. The proportion of predicted species that have been observed is related to recorder effort and population density. Maps for individual species have been made available online () to facilitate recording in the future. 5. This analysis has illustrated a problem with current odonate recording in the form of unbalanced recorder effort. However, the SDM approach also provides the solution, targeting recorder effort in such a way as to maximise returns from limited resources

Time as a geometric property of space

The proper description of time remains a key unsolved problem in science. Newton conceived of time as absolute and universal which "flows equably without relation to anything external." In the nineteenth century, the four-dimensional algebraic structure of the quaternions developed by Hamilton, inspired him to suggest that he could provide a unified representation of space and time. With the publishing of Einstein's theory of special relativity these ideas then lead to the generally accepted Minkowski spacetime formulation of 1908. Minkowski, though, rejected the formalism of quaternions suggested by Hamilton and adopted an approach using four-vectors. The Minkowski framework is indeed found to provide a versatile formalism for describing the relationship between space and time in accordance with Einstein's relativistic principles, but nevertheless fails to provide more fundamental insights into the nature of time itself. In order to answer this question we begin by exploring the geometric properties of three-dimensional space that we model using Clifford geometric algebra, which is found to contain sufficient complexity to provide a natural description of spacetime. This description using Clifford algebra is found to provide a natural alternative to the Minkowski formulation as well as providing new insights into the nature of time. Our main result is that time is the scalar component of a Clifford space and can be viewed as an intrinsic geometric property of three-dimensional space without the need for the specific addition of a fourth dimension

Heavy Quark Effective Theory at Large Orders in 1/m1/m

The existing derivations of a heavy quark effective theory (HQET) are analyzed beyond the next-to-leading order in $1/m$. With one exception they are found to be incorrect. The problem is a wrong normalization of the heavy quark field in the effective theory. We argue that the correct effective theory should be given by a Foldy--Wouthuysen type field transformation to all orders in $1/m$. The renormalization of the resulting Lagrangian to order $1/m^2$ is performed allowing for inclusion of effects arising through vacuum polarization. Our results for the anomalous dimensions disagree with the existing ones. Some applications are considered.Comment: 24 pages, LaTeX, MZ-TH/93-13 (revised). Major change

Volcanism and the Greenland ice cores: A new tephrochronological framework for the last glacial-interglacial transition (LGIT) based on cryptotephra deposits in three ice cores

Chemical profiles from Greenland ice cores show that the frequency of volcanism was higher during the last glacial-interglacial transition (LGIT) and early Holocene, (17–9 ka b2k) than in any other period during the last 110 kyr. This increased frequency has partly been linked to climate-driven melting of the Icelandic ice sheet during the last deglaciation, with regional isostatic changes thought to alter mantle viscosity and lead to more eruptions. Our study is the first to construct a comprehensive tephrochronological framework from Greenland ice cores over the LGIT to aid in the reconstruction of volcanic activity over this period. The framework is based on extensive high-resolution sampling of three Greenland ice cores between 17.4 and 11.6 ka b2k and comprises a total of 64 cryptotephra deposits from the NGRIP, GRIP and NEEM ice cores. We show that many of these tephras are preserved within the core without an associated chemical signature in the ice, which implies that reconstructions of volcanism based solely on glacio-chemical indicators might underestimate the number of events. Single glass shards from each deposit were geochemically characterised to trace the volcanic source and many of these deposits could be correlated between cores. We show that the 64 deposits represent tephra deposits from 42 separate volcanic events, and of these, 39 are from Iceland, two from the north Pacific region (Japan and USA) and one has an unknown source. Six deposits can be correlated to terrestrial and/or marine tephra deposits in the Northern Hemisphere and the remaining 36 are unreported in other archives. We did not locate tephra from the compositionally distinctive Laacher See eruption (∼13 ka b2k) in our records. Combining our new discoveries with the previously published tephra framework, raises the number of individual tephra horizons found in Greenland ice over this interval to 50. This significantly improves the regional tephrochronological framework, our knowledge of the eruptive history of Iceland during the LGIT and provides new tephra constraints over key LGIT climate events. Consequentially, this framework can guide sampling strategies of future tephra studies in the terrestrial and marine realms aiming to link these records to the Greenland ice cores to assess regional climate synchroneity

Charged AdS Black Holes and Catastrophic Holography

We compute the properties of a class of charged black holes in anti-de Sitter space-time, in diverse dimensions. These black holes are solutions of consistent Einstein-Maxwell truncations of gauged supergravities, which are shown to arise from the inclusion of rotation in the transverse space. We uncover rich thermodynamic phase structures for these systems, which display classic critical phenomena, including structures isomorphic to the van der Waals-Maxwell liquid-gas system. In that case, the phases are controlled by the universal `cusp' and `swallowtail' shapes familiar from catastrophe theory. All of the thermodynamics is consistent with field theory interpretations via holography, where the dual field theories can sometimes be found on the world volumes of coincident rotating branes.Comment: 19 pages, revtex, psfig, 6 multicomponent figures, typos, references and a few remarks have been repaired, and adde

Data Analysis Challenges for the Einstein Telescope

The Einstein Telescope is a proposed third generation gravitational wave detector that will operate in the region of 1 Hz to a few kHz. As well as the inspiral of compact binaries composed of neutron stars or black holes, the lower frequency cut-off of the detector will open the window to a number of new sources. These will include the end stage of inspirals, plus merger and ringdown of intermediate mass black holes, where the masses of the component bodies are on the order of a few hundred solar masses. There is also the possibility of observing intermediate mass ratio inspirals, where a stellar mass compact object inspirals into a black hole which is a few hundred to a few thousand times more massive. In this article, we investigate some of the data analysis challenges for the Einstein Telescope such as the effects of increased source number, the need for more accurate waveform models and the some of the computational issues that a data analysis strategy might face.Comment: 18 pages, Invited review for Einstein Telescope special edition of GR

Dynamical parton distributions of the nucleon and very small-x physics

Utilizing recent DIS measurements (F_{2,L}) and data on dilepton and high-E_{T} jet production we determine the dynamical parton distributions of the nucleon generated radiatively from valence-like positive input distributions at optimally chosen low resolution scales. These are compared with `standard' distributions generated from positive input distributions at some fixed and higher resolution scale. It is shown that up to the next to leading order NLO(\bar{MS}, DIS) of perturbative QCD considered in this paper, the uncertainties of the dynamical distributions are, as expected, smaller than those of their standard counterparts. This holds true in particular in the presently unexplored extremely small-x region relevant for evaluating ultrahigh energy cross sections in astrophysical applications. It is noted that our new dynamical distributions are compatible, within the presently determined uncertainties, with previously determined dynamical parton distributions.Comment: 21 pages, 2 tables, 16 figures, v2: added Ref.[60], replaced Fig.

Signatures of Relativistic Neutrinos in CMB Anisotropy and Matter Clustering

We present a detailed analytical study of ultra-relativistic neutrinos in cosmological perturbation theory and of the observable signatures of inhomogeneities in the cosmic neutrino background. We note that a modification of perturbation variables that removes all the time derivatives of scalar gravitational potentials from the dynamical equations simplifies their solution notably. The used perturbations of particle number per coordinate, not proper, volume are generally constant on superhorizon scales. In real space an analytical analysis can be extended beyond fluids to neutrinos. The faster cosmological expansion due to the neutrino background changes the acoustic and damping angular scales of the cosmic microwave background (CMB). But we find that equivalent changes can be produced by varying other standard parameters, including the primordial helium abundance. The low-l integrated Sachs-Wolfe effect is also not sensitive to neutrinos. However, the gravity of neutrino perturbations suppresses the CMB acoustic peaks for the multipoles with l>~200 while it enhances the amplitude of matter fluctuations on these scales. In addition, the perturbations of relativistic neutrinos generate a *unique phase shift* of the CMB acoustic oscillations that for adiabatic initial conditions cannot be caused by any other standard physics. The origin of the shift is traced to neutrino free-streaming velocity exceeding the sound speed of the photon-baryon plasma. We find that from a high resolution, low noise instrument such as CMBPOL the effective number of light neutrino species can be determined with an accuracy of sigma(N_nu) = 0.05 to 0.09, depending on the constraints on the helium abundance.Comment: 38 pages, 7 figures. Version accepted for publication in PR

Triggering Threshold Spacecraft Charging with Changes in Electron Emission from Materials

Modest changes in spacecraft charging conditions can lead to abrupt changes in the spacecraft equilibrium, from small positive potentials to large negative potentials relative to the space plasma; this phenomenon is referred to as threshold charging. It is well known that temporal changes of the space plasma environment (electron plasma temperature or density) can cause threshold charging. Threshold charging can also result from by temporal changes in the juxtaposition of the spacecraft to the environment, including spacecraft orbit, orientation, and geometry. This study focuses on the effects of possible changes in electron emission properties of representative spacecraft materials. It is found that for electron-induced emission, the possible threshold scenarios are very rich, since this type of electron emission can cause either positive or negative charging. Alternately, modification of photon- or ion-induced electron emission is found to induce threshold charging only in certain favorable cases. Changes of emission properties discussed include modifications due to: contamination, degradation and roughening of surfaces and layered materials; biasing and charge accumulation; bandstructure occupation and density of states caused by heat, optical or particle radiation; optical reflectivity and absorptivity; and inaccuracies and errors in measurements and parameterization of materials properties. An established method is used here to quantitatively gauge the relative extent to which these various changes in electron emission alter a spacecraft’s charging behavior and possibly lead to threshold charging. The absolute charging behavior of a hypothetical flat, two-dimensional satellite panel of a single material (either polycrystalline conductor Au or the polymeric polyimide Kapton™ H) is modeled as it undergoes modification and concomitant changes in spacecraft charging in three representative geosynchronous orbit environments, from full sunlight to full shade (eclipse) are considered

Kaon Production and Kaon to Pion Ratio in Au+Au Collisions at \snn=130 GeV

Mid-rapidity transverse mass spectra and multiplicity densities of charged and neutral kaons are reported for Au+Au collisions at \snn=130 GeV at RHIC. The spectra are exponential in transverse mass, with an inverse slope of about 280 MeV in central collisions. The multiplicity densities for these particles scale with the negative hadron pseudo-rapidity density. The charged kaon to pion ratios are $K^+/\pi^- = 0.161 \pm 0.002 {\rm (stat)} \pm 0.024 {\rm (syst)}$ and $K^-/\pi^- = 0.146 \pm 0.002 {\rm (stat)} \pm 0.022 {\rm (syst)}$ for the most central collisions. The $K^+/\pi^-$ ratio is lower than the same ratio observed at the SPS while the $K^-/\pi^-$ is higher than the SPS result. Both ratios are enhanced by about 50% relative to p+p and $\bar{\rm p}$+p collision data at similar energies.Comment: 6 pages, 3 figures, 1 tabl